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Long Term Stability Monitoring of Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands through Radiative Transfer Modeling

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua has been in operation providing continuous global observations for science research and applications since 2002. The long-term stability of thermal emissive bands (TEBs) of Aqua MODIS was monitored through inter-comparisons with measurements by hyperspectral infrared sensors, such as AIRS on Aqua and IASI on MetOp satellite, or through long term vicarious monitoring over cold targets, such as Dome- C and deep convective clouds (DCC). In this paper, a radiative transfer modeling-based simulation model using Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is developed to perform the long-term monitoring of the stability of TEBs of Aqua MODIS. CRTM is a fast-radiative transfer model for calculations of radiances for satellite infrared radiometers and is able to output infrared radiance and brightness temperature at spectral bands of MODIS. Long term European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis data, such as temperature and humidity profiles, are used as inputs to the CRTM simulation. By confining the area of interest to be over low to middle latitude ocean, the long-term stabilities of selected Aqua MODIS TEBs are monitored through Observation–Background (O-B) brightness temperature (BT) bias between MODIS measurements and BT retrieval from CRTM simulation. The consistency and relative stability between Aqua MODIS and ECMWF reanalysis data for surface channels of MODIS are evaluated. In addition, the radiative transfer modeling with CRTM enables us to evaluate the impacts of long term variation of global CO2 distribution on the O-B BT biases for CO2 channels of Aqua MODIS through comparison of simulations with constant or long term variable CO2 as inputs. The O-B analysis with RTM show that Aqua MODIS surface channels are all radiometrically stable with yearly BT bias drift less than 0.004K/year for B20, B22, B23 and ~0.01K/year for B31 and B32. The CO2 absorption channels of Aqua MODIS, e.g. B33-B36, are stable with BT bias drift < 0.005K/year.

MODIS↗

Use of Satellite-Derived Water Vapor Data to Investigate Northwestward Expansion of North Pacific Subtropical High During 1995 Summer: Westward Propagating Moisture Pattern

The spatial and temporal evolution of the moisture field over the subtropical northwest Pacific during the summer of 1995 is investigated using daily total precipitable water from combined SSM/I-TOVS data and pentad upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) data, in conjunction with NCEP reanalysis data. From analysis of the combined water vapor field, the westward movement of a dry airmass is observed along the 20-30 degrees N latitude zone from near the dateline to the south of Japan throughout the summer of 1995. Extended EOF analysis of total precipitable water reveals that the westward moving pattern takes place in conjunction with an expanding North Pacific subtropical high maintaining an oscillatory component exhibiting a period of some 15-25 days. A concomitant dipole-like oscillating anomalous circulation with approximately a 20-day period between the South China Sea and south of Japan appears to influence the westward expansion of the subtropical high. The analysis also suggests that the fluctuations of the North Pacific high are in response to a local Hadley-type circulation which is induced by westward-moving anomalous convection episodes along 10-20 degrees N.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗

Relationships Between Excessive Heat and Daily Mortality over the Coterminous U.S

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. Using National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological reanalysis data, we have developed several measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. These measures include daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily maximum heat indices and a new heat stress variable called Net Daily Heat Stress (NDHS) that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. All output has been created on the NLDAS 1/8 degree (approximately 12 km) grid and aggregated to the county level, which is the preferred geographic scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics have been made available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. We have examined the relationship between excessive heat events, as defined in eight different ways from the various daily heat metrics, and heat-related and all-cause mortality defined in CDC's National Center for Health Statistics 'Multiple Causes of Death 1999-2010' dataset. To do this, we linked daily, county-level heat mortality counts with EHE occurrence based on each of the eight EHE definitions by region and nationally for the period 1999-2010. The objectives of this analysis are to determine (1) whether heat-related deaths can be clearly tied to excessive heat events, (2) what time lags are critical for predicting heat-related deaths, and (3) which of the heat metrics correlates best with mortality in each US region. Results show large regional differences in the correlations between heat and mortality. Also, the heat metric that provides the best indicator of mortality varied by region. Results from this research will potentially lead to improvements in our ability to anticipate and mitigate any significant impacts of extreme heat events on health.

heat↗

Evaluation of Near-Surface Air Temperature from Reanalysis over the United States and Ukraine: Application to Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting

In this work we evaluate the near-surface air temperature datasets from the ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA2, NCEP1, and NCEP2 reanalysis projects. Reanalysis data were first compared to observations from weather stations located on wheat areas of the United States and Ukraine, and then evaluated in the context of a winter wheat yield forecast model. Results from the comparison with weather station data showed that all datasets performed well (r2>0.95) and that more modern reanalysis such as ERAI had lower errors (RMSD ~ 0.9) than the older, lower resolution datasets like NCEP1 (RMSD ~ 2.4). We also analyze the impact of using surface air temperature data from different reanalysis products on the estimations made by a winter wheat yield forecast model. The forecast model uses information of the accumulated Growing Degree Day (GDD) during the growing season to estimate the peak NDVI signal. When the temperature data from the different reanalysis projects were used in the yield model to compute the accumulated GDD and forecast the winter wheat yield, the results showed smaller variations between obtained values, with differences in yield forecast error of around 2% in the most extreme case. These results suggest that the impact of temperature discrepancies between datasets in the yield forecast model get diminished as the values are accumulated through the growing season.

GSOD↗

Downscaling Reanalysis over Continental Africa with a Regional Model: NCEP Versus ERA Interim Forcing

Five annual climate cycles (1998-2002) are simulated for continental Africa and adjacent oceans by a regional atmospheric model (RM3). RM3 horizontal grid spacing is 0.44deg at 28 vertical levels. Each of 2 simulation ensembles is driven by lateral boundary conditions from each of 2 alternative reanalysis data sets. One simulation downs cales National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis 2 (NCPR2) and the other the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). NCPR2 data are archived at 2.5deg grid spacing, while a recent version of ERA-I provides data at 0.75deg spacing. ERA-I-forced simulations are recomrp. ended by the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Comparisons of the 2 sets of simulations with each other and with observational evidence assess the relative performance of each downscaling system. A third simulation also uses ERA-I forcing, but degraded to the same horizontal resolution as NCPR2. RM3-simulated pentad and monthly mean precipitation data are compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, gridded at 0.5deg, and RM3-simulated circulation is compared to both reanalyses. Results suggest that each downscaling system provides advantages and disadvantages relative to the other. The RM3/NCPR2 achieves a more realistic northward advance of summer monsoon rains over West Africa, but RM3/ERA-I creates the more realistic monsoon circulation. Both systems recreate some features of JulySeptember 1999 minus 2002 precipitation differences. Degrading the resolution of ERA-I driving data unrealistically slows the monsoon circulation and considerably diminishes summer rainfall rates over West Africa. The high resolution of ERA-I data, therefore, contributes to the quality of the downscaling, but NCPR2laterai boundary conditions nevertheless produce better simulations of some features.

Reanalysis↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis - Volume 32

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

AOD↗

Variation of Ice Microphysical Properties With Temperature and Humidity at Tops of Convective Clouds

A better understanding of the many interacting processes governing the evaluation of ice in natural clouds is required to improve the representation of ice clouds in global circulation models. Recent studies suggest a dominant role of vapor growth processes in determining the temperature dependence of cloud top ice sizes and shapes. Using airborne cloud remote sensing along with reanalysis data, here we show that observed cloud top ice effective radii and estimated normalized growth rates at cloud top highly correlate with an approximately linear relationship, which is consistent with a conceptual model also presented. Furthermore, significant differences in crystal shape characteristics and scattering asymmetry parameters are found between sub- and super-saturated cloud tops over ocean, although not over land. These results provide valuable observational targets for studying ice formation and evolution processes using models, while also helping interpretation of satellite observations of ice microphysical properties at cloud tops.

ice↗

Satellite and Reanalysis Air Quality Data and Services at NASA GES DISC for Public Health Study

Outbreaks of infectious diseases and health can be influenced by airborne and water-borne pollutants. Furthermore, air and water quality are associated with climate variability, industrialization, land use and land cover change, and water resource management. It is therefore crucial to understand environment-disease connections with existing long-term observed and modeled data, particularly for development of early warning systems for infectious disease outbreaks. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov) archives large volumes of global environment data that are useful for research and applications regarding environmental factors and public health. Examples of air quality measurements are: Daily satellite remotely sensed data, including Aerosol Index (AI), O3, SO2, CO, and NO2 from Aura/OMI (October 2014 to present), and OMPS-NPP (January 2012 to present, currently research data products only) Hourly and monthly reanalysis modeled data, including PM2.5, O3, CO, SO2, BC, dust, AOD, and aerosol types from MERRA-2 (January 1980 to present) Examples of surface meteorology and land surface measurements are: hourly, daily, and monthly satellite precipitation from TRMM (December 1997 to March 2015) 30-minute and monthly satellite precipitation from GPM (March 2014 to present); Hourly and monthly modeled surface meteorology and land surface condition from MERRA-2 (January 1980 to present) and land surface assimilation models (January 1948 to present), including precipitation, surface temperature, relative humidity, wind, and soil moisture.This presentation will give an overview of relevant environmental data at the NASA GES DISC. Through a number of use cases, such as dust events and active fires, we will introduce data services that assist in finding the right data, enable visualization and analysis of the data online, and allow downloading of data in user-preferred format.

remote sensing data↗

Summary and Highlights of the SPARC-Reanalysis Intercomparison Project

The climate research community uses global atmospheric reanalysis data sets to understand a wide range of processes and variability in the atmosphere; they are a particularly powerful tool for studying phenomena that cannot be directly observed. Different reanalyses may give very different results for the same diagnostics. The Stratosphere troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is a coordinated activity to compare key diagnostics that are important for stratospheric processes and their tropospheric connections among available reanalyses. S-RIP has been identifying differences among reanalyses and their underlying causes, providing guidance on appropriate usage of reanalysis products in scientific studies (particularly those of relevance to SPARC), and contributing to future improvements in the reanalysis products by establishing collaborative links between reanalysis centres and data users. S-RIP emphasizes diagnostics of the upper troposphere, stratosphere, and lower mesosphere. The draft S-RIP final report is expected to be completed in 2018. This poster gives a summary of the S-RIP project and presents highlights including results on the Brewer-Dobson circulation, stratosphere/troposphere dynamical coupling, the extra-tropical upper troposphere / lower stratosphere, the tropical tropopause layer, the quasi-biennial oscillation, lower stratospheric polar processing, and the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere.

Fujiwara, M.↗

Interannual Variability of the Mosaic Land-Surface Model

Recently, NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) reanalysis data has been used to provide forcing for the Koster and Suarez Mosaic Land-surface Model (LSM). The LSM was integrated off-line at all global land points for the period of 1983 - 1995 by the Off-line Land- surface GEOS Assimilation system (OLGA). Here, we compare the interannual variability of OLGA, GEOS-1 and surface observing stations temperature and moisture. Particular attention is given to the United States because of the extreme seasons of 1988 and 1993. Furthermore, the comparison of OLGA is extended to include the analysis of data on the'tiles' (different surface types) in the Mosaic LSM. Results indicate that the GEOS-1 near-surface temperature and moisture reasonably represents the interannual variability in more normal years. However, OLGA also simulates the extreme drought and floods years well. The analysis of the tile information shows that the "Bare soil" surface type is most sensitive to the climate extremes. Off-line testing has provided valuable information on the performance of the Mosaic LSM prior to its incorporation into the new version of the GEOS Data Assimilation System and the integration of a new long reanalysis.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

Retrieval of Daily Maps of PM2.5 Aerosol in the Problematic California Valleys: Bright, Speckled Reflectances, Thin AOT, but High Pollution

The San Joaquin Valley suffers from severe episodes of respirable aerosol (PM2.5) in wintertime.We provide maps of aerosol episodes using daily snapshots of PM2.5 and its changing features despite numerous difficulties inherent to sampling the region. Linear relationships relating aerosol optical thickness (AOT) to PM2.5 give an explained variance of approximately 3.The GEO-CAPE mission has as a goal the provision of relevant measures of respirable aerosol to the community,but has not formulated a science goal beyond the limited goal of retrieval of AOT, bringing the usefulness of GEO-CAPE into doubt.Our special focus was on the DISCOVER-AQ period, Jan-Feb 2013, which had many supporting measurements.Both high pollution and retrieval difficulties tend to occur in many Mediterranean agricultural regions like the San Joauin. One difficulty is the relatively bright surfaces with considerable exposed soil. NASAs MAIAC and MODIS Deep Blue retrieval techniques are shown to have considerable skill even at low aerosol optical thickness (AOT) values, as evaluated by concurrent AERONET sunphotometer measurements.More significantly, these AOT values can correspond to high daytime PM2.5 since aerosol mixed layer depth is thin and variable, 200m 600 m. The thin layers derive from typical subsidence of dry air between more stormy periods. This situation provides an advantage: water vapor column is also almost completely limited to a similar mixed layer depth, and can thus serve as a measure of aerosol dilution.Using the MAIAC Water Vapor Column:In order to make the maps below, we used the MAIAC data but subtracted partial water-vapor columns estimated from MERRA Reanalysis Data availabe from the GSFC GMAO using kriging. We did not use the mixed-layer estimates from MERRA, since such analyses were found problematic during our forecasting exercises for DISCOVER-AQ. Observations from the aircraft soundings suggested that this overlying moisture was mostly due to larger scale flows, not ML venting.However, the specific humidity at the surface and a nearly well-mixed ML was analyzed by kriging from the surface network (MesoWest, University of Utah). These were thought to be truer, uninfluenced by physical process modeling that combines with data observations. (TBD: How different are they?) Procedure: Subtract overlying partial water columns from MAIAC column water and divide this by a surface value of water vapor. (MAIAC column is expressed in cm of water, i.e., water vapor at surface conditions.This method appears to bring out useful details in the distribution of submicron particles in the very problematic Wintertime San Joaquin Valley, and allow analysis of pollution episodes throughout the valley, rather than long-term averages.

san joaquin valley↗

The Arya Crop Yield Forecasting Algorithm: Application to the Main Wheat Exporting Countries

Wheat is the most important commodity traded in the international food market. Thus, accurate and timely information on wheat production can help mitigate food price fluctuations. Within the existing operational regional and global scale agricultural monitoring systems that provide information on global crop yield and area forecasts, there are still fundamental gaps: #1. Lack of quantitative Earth Observation (EO) derived crop information, #2. Lack of global but detailed (national or subnational level) and timely crop production forecasts and #3. Lack of information on forecast uncertainties. In this study we present the Agriculture Remotely-sensed Yield Algorithm (ARYA) an EO-based method, advancing the state of EO data application and usage (addressing gap #1) to forecast wheat yield. The algorithm is based on the evolution of the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) using MODIS data at 1km resolution and the Growing Degree Days (GDD) from reanalysis data. Additionally, we explore how Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be included into the model and whether this parameter adds any value to the model performance when combined with the optical information. ARYA is implemented at the national and subnational level to forecast winter wheat yield in the main wheat exporting countries of US, Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany, Australia and Argentina from 2001 to 2019 (covering over 70% of wheat exports globally) in a timely manner by providing daily forecasts (addressing gap #2). The results show that ARYA provides yield estimations with RMSE’s within 0.3 ± 0.1 t/ha at national level and 0.6 ± 0,1 t/ha at subnational level after Day Of the Year (DOY) 140 (mid May) in the Northern Hemisphere and DOY 280 (beginning of October) in the Southern Hemisphere. This means that ARYA can provide crop yield estimates of wheat yield with 5-15 % error at national and 7-20 % error at subnational level starting from 2 to 2.5 months prior to harvest.

Agriculture↗

Global Surface Solar Energy Anomalies Including El Nino and La Nina Years

This paper synthesizes past events in an attempt to define the general magnitude, duration, and location of large surface solar anomalies over the globe. Surface solar energy values are mostly a function of solar zenith angle, cloud conditions, column atmospheric water vapor, aerosols, and surface albedo. For this study, solar and meteorological parameters for the 10-yr period July 1983 through June 1993 are used. These data were generated as part of the Release 3 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) activity under the NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) effort. Release 3 SSE uses upgraded input data and methods relative to previous releases. Cloud conditions are based on recent NASA Version-D International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) global satellite radiation and cloud data. Meteorological inputs are from Version-I Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) reanalysis data that uses both weather station and satellite information. Aerosol transmission for different regions and seasons are for an 'average' year based on historic solar energy data from over 1000 ground sites courtesy of Natural Resources Canada (NRCan). These data are input to a new Langley Parameterized Shortwave Algorithm (LPSA) that calculates surface albedo and surface solar energy. That algorithm is an upgraded version of the 'Staylor' algorithm. Calculations are performed for a 280X280 km equal-area grid system over the globe based on 3-hourly input data. A bi-linear interpolation process is used to estimate data output values on a 1 X 1 degree grid system over the globe. Maximum anomalies are examined relative to El Nino and La Nina events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Maximum year-to-year anomalies over the globe are provided for a 10-year period. The data may assist in the design of systems with increased reliability. It may also allow for better planning for emergency assistance during some atypical events.

Whitlock, C. H.↗

Near 40 Years MERRA-2 Data at NASA GES DISC -Opportunity and Challenge to Support Extremes Study

To the end of 2019, 40 years NASA climate reanalysis data sets from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) will be available at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 consists atmosphere, land, and ocean data, which may be used for the studies ranging from the short scale weather events to the large scale decadal vulnerabilities. The hourly products, such as precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and aerosols etc., have been used widely to study extreme events.In supporting users from broad communities, GES DISC have developed various data access services, including subsetter for downloading only data of interest with preferred format; OPeNDAP - for machine-to-machine data access; and Giovanni- for online visualization and analysis, etc. A big challenge for extreme study is to downloading and processing long-term hourly or daily data. The data downloading performance is not very satisfied by many users with current services and the native archived data structure. Late June 2019, many people in Europe had experienced extreme heat waves. The temperatures in several countries exceeded 40°C (104°F). For example, MERRA-2 shows that the near surface daily maximum temperature of June 28 2019 over Marseille, a city in southern France, reached 41.1 °C (106°F), which is the record breaking temperature in the last 40 years. GES DISC is working together with domain science experts to improve the performance of long time series access, making analysis ready data sets in supporting application researches, such as extreme study. In this presentation, using Europe heat wave as an example, we will show prototype of the in developing service for finding extremes from near 40 years MERRA-2 data at a given location. MERRA-2 data can be accessed from NASA GES DISC(https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ ) by search keyword "MERRA-2".

Shen, Suhung↗

MERRA/AS: The MERRA Analytic Services Project Interim Report

MERRA AS is a cyberinfrastructure resource that will combine iRODS-based Climate Data Server (CDS) capabilities with Coudera MapReduce to serve MERRA analytic products, store the MERRA reanalysis data collection in an HDFS to enable parallel, high-performance, storage-side data reductions, manage storage-side driver, mapper, reducer code sets and realized objects for users, and provide a library of commonly used spatiotemporal operations that can be composed to enable higher-order analyses.

MapReduce↗

Passive Microwave Signatures and Retrieval of High-Latitude Snowfall Over Open Oceans and Sea Ice: Insights From Coincidences of GPM and CloudSat Satellites

This article studies changes in microwave signals of oceanic snowfall in response to the formation of snow-covered sea ice using active and passive coincident data from the radar and radiometer onboard the CloudSat and the global precipitation measurement satellites. Using reanalysis data of liquid and ice water path as well as satellite retrievals of sea ice snow-cover depth, spectral regions are determined over which the snowfall signatures are likely to be obscured or falsely detected. Relying on an a priori database populated with the active–passive coincidences, a Bayesian snowfall retrieval algorithm is presented that links a k -nearest neighbor matching with the inverse Gaussian estimator used in the Goddard profiling algorithm. Without relying on any ancillary data of air temperature, the results demonstrate that over open oceans (sea ice), we can passively retrieve the CloudSat active snowfalls with a true positive rate of 92 (85%) and the root mean squared error of 0.24 (0.15) mm per h.

Sajad Vahedizade↗