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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiative impact of record-breaking wildfires from integrated ground-based data

The radiative effects of wildfires have been traditionally estimated by models using radiative transfer calculations. Assessment of model-predicted radiative effects commonly involves information on observation-based aerosol optical properties. However, lack or incompleteness of this information for dense plumes generated by intense wildfires reduces substantially the applicability of this assessment. Here we introduce a novel method that provides additional observational constraints for such assessments using widely available ground-based measurements of shortwave and spectrally resolved irradiances and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible and near-infrared spectral ranges. We apply our method to quantify the radiative impact of the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in the Western US in September 2020. For our quantification we use integrated ground-based data collected at the Atmospheric Measurements Laboratory in Richland, Washington, USA with a location frequently downwind of wildfires in the Western US. We demonstrate that remarkably dense plumes generated by these wildfires strongly reduced the solar surface irradiance (up to 70% or 450 Wm -2 for total shortwave flux) and almost completely masked the sun from view due to extremely large AOD (above 10 at 500 nm wavelength). We also demonstrate that the plume-induced radiative impact is comparable in magnitude with those produced by a violent volcano eruption occurred in the Western US in 1980 and continental cumuli.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observation of quantum effects on radiation reaction in strong fields

Radiation reaction, the force experienced by an accelerated charge due to radiation emission, has long been the subject of extensive theoretical and experimental research. Experimental verification of a quantum, strong-field description of radiation reaction is fundamentally important, and has wide-ranging implications for astrophysics, laser-driven particle acceleration, next-generation particle colliders and inverse-Compton photon sources for medical and industrial applications. However, the difficulty of accessing regimes where strong field and quantum effects dominate inhibited previous efforts to observe quantum radiation reaction in charged particle dynamics with high significance. We report the first high significance (> 5σ) observation of strong-field radiation reaction on electron spectra where quantum effects are substantial. We obtain the first, quantitative, strong evidence favouring the quantum-continuous and quantum-stochastic models over the classical model; the quantum models perform comparably. The lower electron energy losses predicted by the quantum models accounts for their improved performance. Model comparison was performed using a novel Bayesian framework which has widespread utility for laser-particle collision experiments, including those utilising conventional accelerators, where some collision parameters cannot be measured directly.

Los, Eva E. [Imperial College London (United Kingd↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing wintertime cloud opacity increases surface longwave radiation at a long-term Arctic observatory

As the Arctic warms, winter clouds are known and expected to change. Yet the extent to which these cloud changes amplify or dampen warming (cloud feedback) remains uncertain. This uncertainty results from systemic difficulties in modeling and observing Arctic low clouds. Surface-based observations avoid many of these difficulties. Here, we use two decades of surface-based observations (1998–2023) to constrain and explain longwave flux change during winter. We find that longwave flux into the surface is increasing and that this increase cannot be explained by direct impacts of temperature and greenhouse gases alone. Only when increasing cloud radiative effect (0.96 ± 0.64 W/m 2 /K) is considered can increasing longwave flux be explained. Cloud radiative effect increases due to increasing cloud opacity, which is driven equally by ice-only and mixed-phase clouds. The direct observational constraint from this work suggests that increasing cloud opacity drives increasing net surface radiation on Alaska’s North Slope during winter.

Bertrand, Leah [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Un↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced mid-latitude warming due to poleward shift of sea salt aerosols in a warmer future

Natural aerosols provide large uncertainties regarding the quantification of the climate effects of aerosols, especially those related to aerosol-cloud interactions. Advancing research on the interaction of natural aerosols and climate can provide a better assessment of the climate impacts of anthropogenic activities. Furthermore, as one of the most dominant natural aerosols, sea salt has the highest proportion of mass in natural aerosols. Sea salt can be regarded as a purely scattering aerosol, causing a negative radiative effect by scattering shortwave solar radiation and acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) through aerosol-cloud interactions. Future climate change will influence sea salt distribution, thus modifying the radiative effects of sea salt, which will further affect the climate. However, few previous studies have explored the interactions between sea salt changes under warming scenarios and climate change.

Yang, Yang [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science a↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m -2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Glassy carbon formation from pyrolysis of polymeric coatings on fiber-optic sensors

Deploying fiber-optic sensors in nuclear reactors requires a detailed understanding of radiation effects on the fiber materials and the transmitted signals. Previous work has shown large wavelength shifts in the reflected spectra obtained from polymer-coated fiber-optic temperature sensors exposed to high neutron fluences. The sensor drift resulting from these wavelength shifts cannot be explained by radiation effects on fused silica glass. These shifts are hypothesized to be caused by the conversion of the polymeric fiber coating to a glassy carbon via radiolysis and/or pyrolysis and subsequent radiation-induced compaction. Here, thermal degradation of these polymeric coatings was studied to provide insight into the potential origins of the sensor drift phenomenon. Acrylate- and polyimide-coated fibers were heated under various temperatures (250–1300 °C) and environments (oxidative and inert), and the resulting coating products were characterized via mass-loss data, scanning electron microscope imaging, and Raman spectroscopy. Results suggest that the polymer decomposition product of both coating types, at least under inert conditions, is indeed a glassy carbon. Analytical models that account for radiation-induced glassy carbon coating compaction show significant compressive fiber strains and predicted wavelength shifts that agree well with experimental measurements, providing additional evidence that supports the hypothesized origins of the sensor drift.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent evolution of risk analyses in atomic bomb survivor studies: new methods and applications

Abstract Several decades ago a dramatic leap forward occurred in the development and application of statistical methods for modeling radiation risk at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Poisson regression analysis for grouped person-year cohort data and the linear excess relative risk model were introduced, and subsequently a devoted software system, Epicure® (https://www.hirosoft.com), was developed by researchers at RERF and at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. Numerous advancements in understanding radiation effects on humans were made possible with these methods, which are still the state-of-the-art for risk assessment at RERF and have remained part of the standard toolbox for radiation—and other environmental—epidemiological studies worldwide. Nevertheless, as our understanding of radiation risk has increased, so have the breadth and depth of questions that require answers based on emerging data that are not amenable to these conventional methods. This overview briefly recounts the conventional methods and then describes our recent diversification into the use or development of new statistical approaches to meet the challenges of burgeoning biological data and emerging mechanistic information. We briefly discuss the development and application of new methods, current and planned, that are part of the RERF Statistics Department’s role in supporting institution-wide research, especially in our collaborations involving the Life Span Study, Adult Health Study, and First-generation Offspring Clinical Study. Some approaches to modeling and assessing radiation risk with newer methods mentioned herein have already been published, while some are still in development or are only beginning at the proposal stage.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensor response and radiation damage effects for 3D pixels in the ATLAS IBL Detector

Pixel sensors in 3D technology equip the outer ends of the staves of the Insertable B Layer (IBL), the innermost layer of the ATLAS Pixel Detector, which was installed before the start of LHC Run 2 in 2015. 3D pixel sensors are expected to exhibit more tolerance to radiation damage and are the technology of choice for the innermost layer in the ATLAS tracker upgrade for the HL-LHC programme. While the LHC has delivered an integrated luminosity of ≃ 235 fb -1 since the start of Run 2, the 3D sensors have received a non-ionising energy deposition corresponding to a fluence of ≃ 8.5 × 10 14 1 MeV neutron-equivalent cm -2 averaged over the sensor area. This paper presents results of measurements of the 3D pixel sensors' response during Run 2 and the first two years of Run 3, with predictions of its evolution until the end of Run 3 in 2025. Data are compared with radiation damage simulations, based on detailed maps of the electric field in the Si substrate, at various fluence levels and bias voltage values. These results illustrate the potential of 3D technology for pixel applications in high-radiation

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Grain Boundary Effects on Radiation Damage and Tritium Diffusion in Li–Al–O Ceramics from Molecular Dynamics and Experiments

Understanding irradiation damage and tritium transport in LiAlO2 ceramics is essential for their deployment in tritium-producing burnable absorber rods (TPBARs). Grain boundaries (GBs) play an important role in governing radiation response and tritium transport in LiAlO2 and its secondary phase LiAl5O8. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we investigated defect evolution and tritium diffusion during displacement cascades in single-crystal and bicrystal LiAlO2 and LiAl5O8 at 600 K. The results reveal that GBs suppress the damage in the LiAlO2 bicrystals as compared to single crystals, via interstitial emission. The effect is more pronounced for Li defects, than for Al and O. In LiAl5O8 the damage reduction due to introduction of GB is less pronounced overall. Tritium diffusion coefficients at GBs are higher by factors of 2–10 relative to diffusion inside grain bulk. The effect is particularly pronounced in LiAlO2, where S5, S17, and S25 GBs promote rapid tritium transport, whereas LiAl5O8 exhibits slower diffusion due to reduced free volume at its GBs. These findings evince a trade-off that while GBs mitigate radiation damage by absorbing interstitials, they simultaneously provide fast pathways for tritium migration which is not desirable for TPBAR application. The mechanistic insights gained here establish a foundation for microstructural design strategies to balance radiation tolerance and tritium retention in ceramic breeder materials.

Roy, Ankit↗
DOE OSTI2026

Atmospheric Composition and Radiative Forcing Effects due to UN International Ship Emissions Regulations (ACRUISE) Field Campaign Report

Aerosols, or atmospheric particulates, are long known to be able to seed clouds and modify their characteristics (e.g., cloud brightness, coverage, lifetime). However, the impact of aerosols on clouds is highly complex and non-linear. As a result, aerosol-cloud interaction remains the largest uncertainty in our understanding of the Earth’s radiative balance and in any future climate projections. Aerosols are also a principal component of air pollution and are known to adversely affect respiratory and cardiovascular health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Clouds in GFDL's AM4.0 With Different Microphysical Parameterizations Using the Satellite Simulator Package COSP

We evaluate cloud simulations using satellite simulators against multiple observational data sets. These simulators have been run within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (AM4.0), as well as an alternative configuration where a fully two‐moment Morrison‐Gettelman cloud microphysical parameterization with prognostic precipitation (MG2) is applied, denoted as AM4‐MG2. The modeled cloud spatial distributions, vertical profiles, phase partitioning, cloud‐to‐precipitation transitions, and radiative effects compare reasonably well with satellite observations. Model biases include the under‐prediction of total and low‐level clouds, especially optically thin/intermediate clouds with cloud optical depth of less than 23, but the over‐prediction of thick clouds, indicating “too few, too bright” biases. These biases counteract each other, and give rise to reasonable estimates of cloud radiative effects. The underestimate of low‐level clouds is associated with too early and too frequent drizzle/precipitation formation. The precipitation bias is improved in AM4‐MG2, where the autoconversion scheme initiates the precipitation more realistically. There also exist discrepancies between models and observations for midlevel and high‐level clouds. Additional biases include the underestimate of liquid cloud fraction and the overestimate of ice cloud fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Anthropogenic Dust From Agricultural Sources in E3SMv1: Implementation, Evaluation, and Assessment of the Radiative Forcing

Dust emissions related to anthropogenic activities (i.e., anthropogenic dust) is not represented in most global climate models and its radiative impact remains unassessed. In this study, we develop a new and physically based method to parameterize anthropogenic dust emission from agricultural sources (i.e., agricultural dust, or AD) based on the DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). This method relates AD emission to the crop land use fraction in the E3SMv1 land component. Major AD sources simulated by our parameterization include those over Central America, the Sahel, North India, and North China. The annual averaged AD emission with diameter less than 10 μm is 567 Tg yr −1 in present-day (year 2000), which contributes to 13.3% of total dust emission. Model evaluation against satellite and ground-based observations shows that the new parameterization can represent AD emissions and global dust cycle reasonably well. We find that the total dust emission increases by 13.1% (495 Tg yr −1 ) from 1850 to 2000 due to the cropland land use fraction changes without considering the impact from climate changes. This induces a net dust direct effective radiative forcing of −0.041 W m −2 at top of the atmosphere. This dust-induced cooling exceeds 10% of the total anthropogenic aerosol direct effective radiative forcing from 1750 to 2014 estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Our findings indicate an important role of anthropogenic dust in global climate change, which should be included in future climate change assessments.

agricultural dust↗