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NASA NTRS1976

Quasi-biennial geomagnetic variation caused by the sun

Clear evidence for the existence of a quasi-biennial geomagnetic variation is shown by an analysis of annual averages of the horizontal (H) component of the geomagnetic field observed at five observatories. The analysis uses a numerical filter, which is equivalent to taking the second order time derivative of the time series. The cause for the variation is external to the earth because its amplitude depends on magnetic activity. The second order time derivative of H is well correlated with the corresponding time derivatives of the relative sunspot number and 10.7 cm solar flux. It is suggested that quasi-biennial oscillations observed in the geomagnetic field, cosmic rays, stratospheric zonal wind and temperature, total ozone, and other meteorological parameters could be produced by a common cause on the sun.

Sugiura, M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Numerical simulation of sudden stratospheric warmings

The paper presents a mechanistic, quasi-geostrophic, semi-spectral model with a self-consistent calculation of the mean zonal flow fields used to numerically simulate sudden stratospheric warmings generated by a single zonal harmonic (m) planetary wave. The development of a warming depends on the strength of the westerly winds in the lower stratosphere, and the growth rate of a m=2 warming is accelerated during the westerly zonal wind phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation. An m=1 warming is characterized by oscillation of wave amplitude and mean flow from resonantly trapped, westward, propagating planetary waves moving in and out of phase with the tropospherically forced stationary planetary wave. An m=2 critical level develops in the equatorial region and advances poleward, and its warming is characterized by a sudden intensification after an initially slow growth in contrast to slowly developing m=1 warmings.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A Lagrangian mean theory of wave, mean-flow interaction with applications to nonacceleration and its breakdown

A review is given of new Lagrangian mean theory of wave transport. Attention is focused on the so-called 'nonacceleration' theorem, and it is shown that such a theorem arises naturally in the Lagrangian mean framework. Also discussed is a simple example of the Stokes drift, a concept which is central to nonacceleration. The Lagrangian mean theory substantially simplifies and unifies the understanding of wave driving in cases where nonacceleration is violated because of wave transience and dissipation. Moreover, the theory has given new insights in one particular case, that of Rossby gravity wave, mean-flow interaction. These insights have successfully explained some hitherto unresolved paradoxes in the theory of the quasi-biennial oscillation of zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere. Some brief remarks are also made concerning some of the outstanding difficulties of the theory in need of future investigation.

Dunkerton, T.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Seasonal variations of total ozone revealed by the Nimbus-4 BUV data set

Backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) data from the Nimbus-4 spacecraft for the period 1970-1977 have been processed to a refined level. The seasonal and interannual variations of total ozone are examined on a global scale, using daily zonal means of 10 deg latitude bands and a time-latitude cross section. A harmonic analysis was performed on the daily zonal means and the amplitude, days of peak ozone values, and percentage of variance were computed for the annual, semiannual and higer harmonics for several years and each year. A clear quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was revealed from the tropics to midlatitudes after removing the mean annual wave. Asymmetries in the annual wave in the two hemispheres found earlier for the period 1970-1972 persist through the entire observation period. Interannual variations appear to be the result of the QBO of ozone from low to midlatitudes. Asymmetries in the QBO amplitude phase, and period were also detected in the two hemispheres.

Hilsenrath, E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Space observations of aerosols and ozone; Proceedings of the Topical Meeting, Ottawa, Canada, May 16-June 2, 1982

The measurement of aerosols from space is discussed, taking into account the role of aerosols in climate, instrumentation and further measurement systems, retrieval procedures, measurements and observations, ground truth measurements, and effects on remote sensing and on climate. Aspects of ozone variability in the middle atmosphere are explored, giving attention to the quasi-biennial oscillation in equatorial stratospheric temperatures and total ozone, global pictures on the ozone field from high altitudes from DE-1, measurements of atmospheric ozone from aircraft and from balloons, a mesospheric ozone profile at sunset, periodic and aperiodic ozone variations in the middle and upper stratosphere, solar eclipse induced variations in mesospheric ozone concentrations, and solar UV and ozone balloon measurements. The determination of aerosol optical depth is considered along with a method for estimating cross radiance.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

PMP-2: Equatorial wave dynamics

After the discovery of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratospheric zonal wind, there were, in the last two decades, a large number of observational and theoretical studies on the structure and behavior of the mean zonal wind and waves in the tropical stratosphere. Planetary-scale, vertically propagating equatorial waves play an important role in producing the QBO through the mechanism of wave-mean flow interaction. Concerning the dynamics of the equatorial upper stratosphere and mesosphere, however, little was known about the possible wave motions, except for tides, mainly because of the lack of adequate observations in this region. The main purpose is to provide the nature of various types of equatorial wave modes, with the aid of improved sounding techniques and sophisticated numerical modelings.

Hirota, I.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Some studies of zonal and meridional wind characteristics at low latitude Indian stations

At the beginning of the Indian Middle Atmosphere Programme (IMAP), it was decided that the preparation of consolidation reports of already available parameters for the middle atmosphere would be useful. Atmospheric wind data obtained by rockets and balloons constituted one such parameter which had to be consolidated. The present paper summaries the results of this consolidation study. Both zonal and meridional components of winds at four low latitude Indian stations namely Thumba, Shar, Hyderabad, and Balasore, have been analyzed to yield reference wind profiles for each month. The montly mean values have been used to bring out the amplitudes and phases of the annual, semiannual and quasi-biennial oscillations.

Nagpal, O. P.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Equatorial waves in the NCAR stratospheric general circulation model

Equatorially trapped wave modes are very important in the tropical stratospheric momentum balance. Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby-gravity waves are believed to be responsible for the quasi-biennial oscillation of the zonal winds in the equatorial lower stratosphere. Both Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves have been identified in observations and in numerical models. Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves are identified in a general circulation model extending from the surface into the mesosphere and looks at the effect on the waves of lowering the top of the model.

Boville, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the development of the theory of the QBO

The events that led to the discovery of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial stratosphere are described together with the development of current QBO theory. Three independent areas of inquiry led to this theory: (1) the observational and theoretical studies of equatorial waves, (2) the theoretical study of the behavior of mountain waves at critical levels where the mean flow speed went to zero, and (3) the semiempirical study of the momentum budget of the QBO. The efforts in each of these three areas are discussed.

Lindzen, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Ground-based column abundance measurements of atmospheric hydroxyl

The preliminary results of ground-based OH column abundance measurements from Truk, Federated States of Micronesia, are contained. These are the first OH column measurements from the tropics, and constitute a signficcant contribution to the OH data base. Comparisons of tropical OH behavior with the extensive mid-latitude observations serve as a critical test of the current understanding of the HO (sub x) photochemistry and its relationship to the other major chemical families. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds exerts a major influence on the Hadley cell vertical transport. Related QBOs in total O3 and in stratospheric H2O were identified, but QBO effects on other stratospheric species are still unknown. The solar tide in the tropics produces a diurnal surface pressure variation of 2 to 3 mb; its effect on OH photochemistry in the stratosphere may be significant.

Burnett, Clyde R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Correlation of interannual length-of-day variation with El Nino/Southern Oscillation, 1972-1986

Correlation between interannual length-of-day (LOD) changes and an index representation of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the period of 1972-1986 was examined in two ways: as the cross-correlation function in the time domain and as the complex coherence spectrum in the frequency domain. The ENSO representation was derived from barometric measurements from the Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, meteorological stations, as the difference of the sea-level pressure between the two locations. The cross correlation between this ENSO representation and LOD variation on the interannual time scale was found to have a maximum value of 0.68 and the LOD phase lag of 2 months, indicating that most of the interannual LOD variation is caused by ENSO, and that the transfer of ENSO's axial angular momentum to the solid earth lags behind the Tahiti-Darwin pressure variation by about 2 months. The corresponding coherence spectrum showed minimum correlation around biennial periods, indicating an influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation on LOD variations.

Chao, B. Fong↗
NASA NTRS1988

Antarctic measurements of ozone by SAGE II in the spring of 1985, 1986, and 1987

This paper presents a three-year (1985, 1986, and 1987) comparison of ozone profiles within the southern polar vortex for September and October, using data obtained by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II. It was found that, by the first half of October 1986, daily minima in total ozone showed a moderate recovery of 5-7 percent relative to 1985, whereas in 1987, a significant drop of 15 percent from the 1985 minima was observed. The interannual variability of total ozone, temperature, and temperature area or vortex size were found to display a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal similar to that established by Garcia and Solomon (1987) for Antarctica. Since the 1985 and 1987 years displayed the same QBO phase (westerly) and the 1987 depletion was greater than that of 1985, it is concluded that the long-term secular ozone trend continues to be downward.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Wintertime losses of ozone in high northern latitudes

Total column ozone data over the past 22 to 30 years from ground-based Dobson and filter ozonometer stations between 30 N and 80 N are analyzed for residual trends remaining after allowance for the known geophysical variations corresponding to: (1) the change of seasons; (2) the quasi-biennial oscillation; and (3) the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Examination of the data from several ground stations between 45 and 55 N indicated a seasonal difference in the long-term ozone series, with statistically significant losses in several winter months. Accordingly, the data from individual stations were analyzed with multiple regression analysis, seeking trends on a monthly basis after allowance for the known geophysical cycles. Previous statistical analyses were conducted as tests of 1-D model calculations which do not show any differences with the seasons, and any trend toward change in ozone concentrations is expressed in a yearly trend without seasonal variation. Such a model is inappropriate for calculations with a data set which exhibits a pronounced tendency toward seasonal differences in the trends. Comparisons with model calculations then require 2-D models into which seasonal and latitudinal differences can easily be programmed.

Harris, Neil↗
NASA NTRS1989

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

The 10.7-cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with North Pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). Calculations show that temperatures over most of the Northern Hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with North Pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar-cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Quasi-biennial modulation of the Antarctic ozone depletion

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in total ozone and temperature has been extracted from 9 years of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) observations and National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses. Years in which QBO-related variations in the total ozone and temperature are positive are found to correspond to years with smaller September Antarctic total ozone hole decline rates and vice versa. The QBO appears to be responsible for September decline rate deviations up to 0.4 Dobson units (DU) per day. Also, the QBO at mid-latitudes appears to be better correlated with the 30-mbar tropical QBO winds than with those at 50 mbar. Possible mechanisms that would explain these phenomena are discussed.

Lait, Leslie R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The stratospheric major warming of early December 1987

The NMC observations of temperature and geopotential carried out during the stratospheric major warming event of early December 1987 are analyzed. The December 1987 warming event displayed features typical of other major warmings, including vortex displacement, erosion, and splitting and, as such, was the earliest major warming yet observed in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The December 1987 major warming was unusual in that it took place during the (deep) westerly phase of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation and was not preceded by any significant preconditioning of the extratropical vortex. It is suggested that this unusually early major warming was mainly attributable to an anomalously large tropospheric forcing.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The tropospheric response pattern to solar activity forcing

It is tempting to speculate on the possibility that solar flares sometimes are the initial cause of and atmospheric disturbance, which cumulative effect may give rise to a correlation at the 11 year timescale. Reasons to reconsider the possible relevance of solar flare response studies are stated. The discovery of the apparently decisive role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO) in establishing the atmospheric response pattern to solar forcing may throw new light on some of the earlier published relations. Reanalysis of old data in some cases may be advisable. Data on solar flares and their effects on the earth's atmosphere might be a promising candidate for reexamination.

Schuurmans, C. J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A review of the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere relationship

The papers published by Labitzke (1987) and by Labitzke and Van Loon (1988) indicated that the separation of Winter stratospheric data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) led to a largely improved relationship with the 11 year solar cycle. Since then, this possible relationship has been studied and extended from the surface to the lower thermosphere and its extension to other seasons is in progress. An opportunity is provided to review the state of the problem and to attempt to give a general view of the experimentally observed responses of the atmosphere to solar activity, when considering the phases of the Q.B.O. After a brief recall of the relationship discovered in the winter stratosphere, its extension downwards, upwards and to the other seasons are successively reviewed. The existing models are not adequate right now to represent the solar influence as they only take into account the change in UV flux, but before being able to use the large scale dynamics in a coupled radiative photochemical model, one needs to understand the mechanism able to explain the forcing from the lower atmosphere or the surface which could be induced by a change in solar activity.

Chanin, M. L.↗