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At least 55 records · Page 3

Monitoring the propagation of mechanical discontinuity using data-driven causal discovery and supervised learning

Mechanical wave transmission through a material is influenced by the mechanical discontinuity in the material. The propagation of embedded discontinuities can be monitored by analyzing the wave-transmission measurements recorded by a multipoint sensor system placed on the surface of the material. The proposed workflow monitors the propagation of mechanical discontinuity through three stages, namely initial, intermediate, and final stages, by using supervised learning followed by data-driven causal discovery. To the end, the workflow processes the multipoint waveform measurements resulting from a single impulse source, while considering the effects of wave attenuation, dispersion and multiple wave-propagation modes due to the discontinuity and material boundaries. Among various feature reduction techniques ranging from decomposition methods to manifold approximation methods, the features derived based on statistical parameterizations of the measured waveforms lead to reliable monitoring that is robust to changes in precision, resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio of the multipoint sensor measurements. The numbers of zero-crossing, negative-turning, and positive turning in the waveforms are the strongest causal signatures of the propagation of mechanical discontinuity. Higher order moments of the waveforms, such as variance, skewness and kurtosis, are also strong causal signatures of the propagation. Finally, the newly discovered causal signatures confirm that the statistical correlations and conventional feature rankings are not always statistically significant indicators of causality.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Remote sensing of Earth terrain

Research findings are summarized for projects dealing with the following: application of theoretical models to active and passive remote sensing of saline ice; radiative transfer theory for polarimetric remote sensing of pine forest; scattering of electromagnetic waves from a dense medium consisting of correlated Mie scatterers with size distribution and applications to dry snow; variance of phase fluctuations of waves propagating through a random medium; theoretical modeling for passive microwave remote sensing of earth terrain; polarimetric signatures of a canopy of dielectric cylinders based on first and second order vector radiative transfer theory; branching model for vegetation; polarimetric passive remote sensing of periodic surfaces; composite volume and surface scattering model; and radar image classification.

Kong, J. A.↗

Remote sensing of Earth terrain

Progress report on remote sensing of Earth terrain covering the period from Jan. to June 1993 is presented. Areas of research include: radiative transfer model for active and passive remote sensing of vegetation canopy; polarimetric thermal emission from rough ocean surfaces; polarimetric passive remote sensing of ocean wind vectors; polarimetric thermal emission from periodic water surfaces; layer model with tandom spheriodal scatterers for remote sensing of vegetation canopy; application of theoretical models to active and passive remote sensing of saline ice; radiative transfer theory for polarimetric remote sensing of pine forest; scattering of electromagnetic waves from a dense medium consisting of correlated mie scatterers with size distributions and applications to dry snow; variance of phase fluctuations of waves propagating through a random medium; polarimetric signatures of a canopy of dielectric cylinders based on first and second order vector radiative transfer theory; branching model for vegetation; polarimetric passive remote sensing of periodic surfaces; composite volume and surface scattering model; and radar image classification.

Kong, J. A.↗

On the angle between the average interplanetary magnetic field and the propagation direction of plane large amplitude Alfven waves

The paper shows that the experimentally observed close alignment of magnetic field minimum variance direction with the average magnetic field for Alfven waves in the solar wind is consistent with theoretically predicted properties of plane large amplitude Alfven waves in the MHD approximation. The theoretical properties of these Alfven waves constrain the time averaged magnetic field to cluster around the direction of minimum variance, which is aligned with the wave normal. Thus, spacecraft magnetometer observations in the solar wind of minimum variance directions strongly peaked about the average magnetic field direction are consistent with plane large amplitude Alfven waves which have wave normals aligned with the directions of minimum variance. This does not imply that geometrical hydromagnetic calculations for Alfven wave propagation direction in the solar wind are incorrect, but there is a discrepancy between geometrical hydromagnetics theory and observations that IMF minimum variance directions tend to be aligned with the ideal Parker spiral instead of the radial direction.

Lichtenstein, B. R.↗

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Two-Dimensional to One-Dimensional Site Response for Idaho National Laboratory

We perform two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and subsurface geometry of the Eastern Snake River Plane (ESRP), and quantify their effects on ground surface motion relative to one-dimensional (1D) site response analyses at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). We first present the development of random field idealizations of the repeated basalt lava flows, heterogeneously inter-layered with sediments, from seismic velocity data collected over four decades in the ESRP. Using realizations of the stochastic fields mapped on 2D deterministic finite element models, we perform 2D viscoelastic and equivalent-linear wave propagation simulations, and quantify the mean and variance of site response aggravation factors, defined as the response spectral ratio of 2D to 1D analyses on the ground surface. Results are shown to be insensitive to the constitutive material behavior considered here, for strains induced by rock outcrop peak ground acceleration (PGA) as high as 0.7g: viscoelastic and equivalent-linear analyses predict peak mean 2D/1D aggravation factor 1.05 at period T=0.075 sec (i.e. the 2D response spectrum is 5% higher than the corresponding 1D at that period, on average), which corresponds to the wavelength of the horizontal correlation length of the random field (50m). For periods longer than the fundamental period of the site (here, T 1 =0.3125 sec), the propagating wavelengths are too long to be affected by the 1D site response and the aggravation factor becomes equal to 1. The standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the 2D/1D aggravation factors is ~0.15 for periods shorter than the fundamental period of the site, and decays thereafter at a steady rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mountain-Top-to-Mountain-Top Optical Link Demonstration

A mountain-top-to-mountain-top optical link was demonstrated between JPL's Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California, and Strawberry Peak (SP), Lake Arrowhead, California, during the months of June, August, and September of 2000. The bidirectional laser link was nearly horizontal at an altitude of 2 km and spanned a range of 46.8 km. The 780-nm beacon laser transmitted from TMF comprised eight co-propagating mutually incoherent laser beams. The normalized variance or scintillation index (SI) of the individual beacon lasers measured by recording the signal received through 8.50-cm-diameter spotting telescopes on three different nights (June 28-30, 2000) was 1.05 +/- 0.2, 1.76 +/- 0.6, and 0.96 +/- 0.24, respectively. These measurements agreed with values predicted by a heuristic model. The SI of the signal received at SP was found to decrease progressively with an increasing number of beams, and a factor of 3 to 3.5 reduction was achieved for all eight beams. The beam divergence determined by mapping out the point spread function of a few of the individual laser footprints received at SP was 85 to 150 microrad, compared to a design goal of 120 microrad. The 852-nm communications laser beam received at TMF through a 60-cm-diameter telescope on the nights of August 4 and September 14 and 15, 2000, yielded SI values of 0.23 +/- 0.04, 0.32 +/- 0.01, and 0.49 +/- 0.18, respectively, where the reduction was attributed to aperture averaging. The probability distribution functions of the received signal at either end, mitigated by multi-beam averaging in one direction and by aperture averaging in the other direction, displayed lognormal behavior. Consequently, the measured fade statistics showed good agreement with a lognormal model.

Biswas, A.↗

Impact of nuclear data covariance libraries on uncertainty quantification of sodium cooled fast reactor simulation

Uncertainty quantification in core modelling to assess reactor performance is a regular practice to identify design safety limits. Best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) methods are commonly used to propagate uncertainties to core responses from input parameters, characterized by variance-covariance libraries. This study evaluates the impact of different covariance libraries on the uncertainty associated with core safety parameters and their propagation through reactor transient modelling for a metallic core (ABR-1000). The COMAC-1.0, COMMARA-2.0, and COMMARA-2.1 covariance libraries are used to propagate nuclear data uncertainties to neutron feedback coefficients using the Generalized Perturbation Theory, then through transient safety analyses to establish the confidence interval for safety performance of the reactor using stochastic sampling. The considered transients include Unprotected Transient Over Power and Unprotected Loss Of Flow. Most influential nuclide and reaction pairs in different variance-covariance libraries are identified and their impact on the uncertainty of safety parameters are evaluated. Significant differences were observed between uncertainties from COMAC compared to COMMARA libraries. Uncertainties from COMMARA libraries were consistently larger than COMAC for all cases. For structure, coolant density feedback coefficients and control rod worth, total nuclear data uncertainties were approximately 50% larger for COMMARA than COMAC. Differences were also observed in identification of top contributors of uncertainty in terms of reaction-cross sections. For instance, largest contribution to total uncertainty of radial expansion coefficient from COMMARA-2.0 and 2.1 originates from Na{sup 23} P1 Elastic cross section (0.81%) but from Pu{sup 239} Fission (0.53%) with COM C-1.0. Such differences are evaluated in this research for all quantities of interest. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Large-Eddy Simulation Study in WRF on Wind over Broadband Waves of Different Directions and Spreading Widths

We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with moving waves to conduct large-eddy simulations (LESs) of wind over broadband waves with different propagating directions and spreading widths. Our results show that wind-opposing waves can double the form drag, and the wave propagating direction affects the mean wind velocity, velocity variances, and pressure stress. On the other hand, waves with wider spread tend to reduce the form drag in the streamwise direction. Results further indicate that the wave direction can impact the bulk drag coefficient by as much as 25%, while the wave directional spreading width can change it by 5%. Based on our wave-phase-resolved simulations, we demonstrate that the parameterization of sea surface roughness is significantly influenced by the direction of wave propagation relative to the wind, a factor that the commonly used Charnock relation does not account for.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vertically Resolved Analysis of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Highlights the Role of Convective Transport of Moist Static Energy

We simulate the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) over an aquaplanet with uniform surface temperature using the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-MMF). The model produces MJO-like features that have a similar spatial structure and propagation behavior to the observed MJO. To explore the processes involved in the propagation and maintenance of these MJO-like features, we perform a vertically resolved moist static energy (MSE) analysis for the MJO (Yao et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-20-0254.1). Unlike the column-integrated MSE analysis, our method emphasizes the local production of MSE variance and quantifies how individual physical processes amplify and propagate the MJO's characteristic vertical structure. We find that radiation, convection, and boundary layer (BL) processes all contribute to maintaining the MJO, balanced by the large-scale MSE transport. Furthermore, large-scale dynamics, convection, and BL processes all contribute to the propagation of the MJO, while radiation slows the propagation. Additionally, we perform mechanism-denial experiments to examine the role of radiation and associated feedbacks in simulating the MJO. We find that the MJO can still self-emerge and maintain its characteristic structures without radiative feedbacks. This study highlights the role of convective MSE transport in the MJO dynamics, which was overlooked in the column-integrated MSE analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

We present several different methods for generating realistic predictive covariance, including Monte-Carlo simulations and more direct linear methods which require the addition of process noise. The Monte-Carlo simulation starts with an epoch uncertainty sample basis and propagates each trial to a time of interest in the future. The variance-covariance of the state elements as well as other higher order sample statistics can be readily computed from the propagated sample. While this method preserves the nonlinear effects on the propagated uncertainty, it is computationally intensive as a statistically significant sample size must be considered in the propagation process. Moreover, if the epoch covariance is optimistic, this can result in an underestimation of the prediction error. Another method is to propagate a state sensitivity matrix simultaneously with the satellite state, which allows the epoch covariances to be propagated forward in a linear fashion. This method does not preserve the non-linearity of the satellite state uncertainty but is much less computationally intensive. The propagated state covariance is the scaled to represent the realistic level of GPM state uncertainty via a "e-tuning process." The tuning process generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Difference tuning strategies are considered and compared via Goodness-of-Fit method testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance.

prediction error↗

Diurnal Variation in Gravity Wave Activity at Low and Middle Latitudes

We employ a modified composite day extension of the Hocking (2005) analysis method to study gravity wave (GW) activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere using 4 meteor radars spanning latitudes from 7deg S to 53.6deg S. Diurnal and semidiurnal modulations were observed in GW variances over all sites. Semidiurnal modulation with downward phase propagation was observed at lower latitudes mainly near the equinoxes. Diurnal modulations occur mainly near solstice and, except for the zonal component at Cariri (7deg S), do not exhibit downward phase propagation. At a higher latitude (SAAMER, 53.6deg S) these modulations are only observed in the meridional component where we can observe diurnal variation from March to May, and semidiurnal, during January, February, October (above 88 km) and November. Some of these modulations with downward phase progression correlate well with wind shear. When the wind shear is well correlated with the maximum of the variances the diurnal tide has its largest amplitudes, i.e., near equinox. Correlations exhibiting variations with tidal phases suggest significant GW-tidal interactions that have different characters depending on the tidal components and possible mean wind shears. Modulations that do not exhibit phase variations could be indicative of diurnal variations in GW sources.

waves↗

Obtaining Reliable Predictions of Terrestrial Energy Coupling From Real-Time Solar Wind Measurements

Measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer), Wind, IMP-8 (Interplanetary Monitoring Platform), and Geotail spacecraft have revealed that the IMF variations are contained in phase planes that are tilted with respect to the propagation direction, resulting in continuously variable changes in propagation times between spacecraft, and therefore, to the Earth. Techniques for using 'minimum variance analysis' have been developed in order to be able to measure the phase front tilt angles, and better predict the actual propagation times from the L1 orbit to the Earth, using only the real-time IMF measurements from one spacecraft. The use of empirical models with the IMF measurements at L1 from ACE (or future satellites) for predicting 'space weather' effects has also been demonstrated.

Weimer, Daniel R.↗

Estimation and Simulation of Slow Crack Growth Parameters from Constant Stress Rate Data

Closed form, approximate functions for estimating the variances and degrees-of-freedom associated with the slow crack growth parameters n, D, B, and A(sup *) as measured using constant stress rate ('dynamic fatigue') testing were derived by using propagation of errors. Estimates made with the resulting functions and slow crack growth data for a sapphire window were compared to the results of Monte Carlo simulations. The functions for estimation of the variances of the parameters were derived both with and without logarithmic transformation of the initial slow crack growth equations. The transformation was performed to make the functions both more linear and more normal. Comparison of the Monte Carlo results and the closed form expressions derived with propagation of errors indicated that linearization is not required for good estimates of the variances of parameters n and D by the propagation of errors method. However, good estimates variances of the parameters B and A(sup *) could only be made when the starting slow crack growth equation was transformed and the coefficients of variation of the input parameters were not too large. This was partially a result of the skewered distributions of B and A(sup *). Parametric variation of the input parameters was used to determine an acceptable range for using closed form approximate equations derived from propagation of errors.

Salem, Jonathan A.↗

Measuring Frequency Instability Of A Large Antenna

Frequency instability of antenna under test determined from measurement of phase deviation between outputs of two antennas. Fiber-optic system used to minimize spurious component of frequency instability contributed by propagation of signal from reference antenna to Allan-variance-measuring instrument. Intended primarily to reveal contributions of wind and air-temperature effects on antenna and beam-waveguide structures to overall frequency instabilities of received signals. Technique simpler, less expensive, potentially capable of providing instability data in shorter measuring times, and more precise.

Otoshi, Tom Y.↗

Development and application of a standardized flow measurement uncertainty analysis framework to various low-head short-converging intake types across the United States federal hydropower fleet

Turbine discharges at low-head short converging intakes are difficult to measure accurately. The proximity of the measurement section to the intake entrance admits large uncertainties related to asymmetry of the velocity profile, swirl, and turbulence. Existing turbine performance codes [10, 24] do not address this special case and published literature is largely silent on rigorous evaluation of uncertainties associated with this measurement context. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Committee investigated the use of Acoustic transit time (ATT), Acoustic scintillation (AS), and Current meter (CM) in a short converging intake at the Kootenay Canal Generating Station in 2009. Based on their findings, a standardized uncertainty analysis (UA) framework for velocity-area method (specifically for CM measurements) is presented in this paper given the fact that CM is still the most fundamental and common type of measurement system. Typical sources of systematic and random errors associated with CM measurements are investigated, and the major sources of uncertainties associated with turbulence and velocity fluctuations, numerical velocity integration technique (bi-cubic spline), and the number and placement of current meters are being considered for an evaluation. Since the velocity measurements in a short converging intake are associated with complex nonlinear and time varying uncertainties (e.g., Reynolds stress in fluid dynamics), simply applying the law of propagation of uncertainty is known to overestimate the measurement variance while the Monte Carlo method does not. Therefore, a pseudo-Monte Carlo simulation method (random flow generation technique [8]) which was initially developed for the purpose of establishing upstream or initial conditions in the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) and the Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) is used to statistically determine uncertainties associated with turbulence and velocity fluctuations. This technique is then combined with a bi-cubic spline interpolation method which converts point velocities into a continuous velocity distribution over the measurement domain. Subsequently the number and placement of current meters are simulated to investigate the accuracy of the estimated flow rates using the numerical velocity-area integration method outlined in ISO 3354 [12]. The authors herein consider that statistics on generated flow rates processed with bi-cubic interpolation and sensor simulations are the combined uncertainties which already accounted for the effects of all those three uncertainty sources. A preliminary analysis based on the current meter data obtained through an upgrade acceptance test of a single unit located in a mainstem plant has been presented.

Smith, Brennan T↗

DESIGN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY HIGH-TEMPERATURE GAS-COOLED TEST REACTOR

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is an indispensable element of any substantial attempt in reactor simulation validation. The quantification of uncertainties in nuclear engineering has grown more important and the IAEA Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) initiated in 2012 aims to investigate the various uncertainty quantification methodologies for this type of reactors. The first phase of the CRP is dedicated to the estimation of cell and lattice model uncertainties due to the neutron cross sections co-variances. Phase II is oriented towards the investigation of propagated uncertainties from the lattice to the coupled neutronics/thermal hydraulics core calculations. Nominal results for the prismatic single block (Ex.I-2a) and super cell models (Ex.I-2c) have been obtained using the SCALE 6.1.3 two-dimensional lattice code NEWT coupled to the TRITON sequence for cross section generation. In this work, the TRITON/NEWT-flux-weighted cross sections obtained for Ex.I-2a and various models of Ex.I-2c is utilized to perform a sensitivity analysis of the MHTGR-350 core power densities and eigenvalues. The core solutions are obtained with the INL coupled code PHISICS/RELAP5-3D, utilizing a fixed-temperature feedback for Ex. II-1a.. It is observed that the core power density does not vary significantly in shape, but the magnitude of these variations increases as the moderator-to-fuel ratio increases in the super cell lattice models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗