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At least 55 records · Page 3

Investigation of INL Site Implementation of ARG-US

The Packaging Certification and Life Cycle Management department at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) developed a suite of monitoring systems collectively referred to here as ARG-US. ARG-US is used to provide necessary data for nuclear facility and system operation and maintenance. ARG-US has been previously demonstrated in hot cells, radioactive material (RAM) storage areas, and RAM shipment trucks. It has also been installed directly on RAM storage and shipment containers. ARG-US offers some unique advantages over other commercially available systems by using wireless data connections, battery power supplies, and customizable monitoring methods. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been tasked with investigating applications for ARG-US at INL site facilities, which are operated by several different contractors. The initial investigation scope centered on CPP-603 Wet & Dry Fuel Storage Facility in relation to the upcoming DOE Spent (SNF) Packaging Demonstration. The investigation has been led by the Used Fuel Management Department in the Nuclear Science and Technology Directorate. This investigation is expected to recommend processes or facilities at the INL site at which to implement ARG-US systems. INL has engaged local site technical and oversite representatives, security, nuclear safeguards, and program management to identify good candidates for ARG-US test implementations. INL has identified high-level goals for any INL site implementation of ARG-US: provide unique testing environments, prompt development of new monitoring methods/techniques for the ARG-US suite, and acquire useful monitoring for the user facility. To these ends, INL suggests 3 program areas for further investigation: CPP-603 Fuel Handling Cave (FHC), legacy mixed waste storage systems at Idaho Nuclear Technology & Engineering Center (INTEC) known as the “tank farm”, and periodic and emergency environmental monitoring. This progress report relates activities undertaken in this investigation, describes the preliminary areas of interest for limited scope ARG-US testing or implementation, and relays expected actions needed to complete the task scope. This report offers an opportunity to the program sponsor, technical leads at ANL, and INL site representatives to give feedback on the initial assessment and make recommendations on the forthcoming activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Development of a field-deployable qPCR assay for real-time pest monitoring in algal cultivation systems

Outdoor cultivation is commonly used to produce algal biomass for a variety of bioproducts including food, feed, fuel, pharmaceuticals, and nutraceuticals. Outdoor cultivation ponds are highly susceptible to pest pressures that may lead to periods of low productivity or even entire loss of the algal crop. Consequently, there is a need for rapid, real-time tracking of pests for early intervention to mitigate crop loss. In this work, we describe the development of a field deployable, low-cost qPCR assay for detecting both known and novel pests of a farmed eukaryotic alga species, Nannochloropsis sp. We performed a proximity guided metagenome deconvolution approach (ProxiMeta™) to discover novel pests that temporally correspond to periods of reduced pond productivity. This approach provided high-quality metagenome assemblies that were used to design qPCR probes to detect specific pests of interest. The portable qPCR assay, designed to be deployed at remote field locations, enables low-cost surveillance with a rapid (2 h) turn-around time. Frequent sampling allows for early detection and prompts intervention strategies to remedy infected ponds to minimize crop loss. The qPCR assay was used to successfully detect a known predatory bacterium within the order Bdellovibrionales both in the lab and at a remote field location. Furthermore, we assembled the genome of two novel, site-specific pests in the Saprospiraceae family and successfully designed qPCR probes that differentially detected their presence in two different pond locations. Ultimately, this assay has the potential to monitor multiple pests simultaneously and tailor targets to match likely pest infections that differ across geographical locations, helping to mitigate crop loss on a large scale.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HD 63021: Chromospheric Activity and Mass Transfer in a Close Binary

Prompted by X-ray detections from multiple surveys, we investigated the A-type star HD 63021 and found that it is a double-lined spectroscopic binary with highly variable emission associated with the primary star. Analysis of our multiepoch spectroscopic observations, the majority of which were carried out on small-aperture telescopes, indicates a very short orbital period of just 2.9 days and a mass ratio M {sub 2}/M {sub 1} of 0.23. The A1 V star is a slow rotator, with a rotational speed of ∼34 km s{sup −1}. Assuming that its mass is 2.3 M {sub ⊙}, the present-day secondary is an evolved star of ∼0.5 M {sub ⊙} that nearly fills its Roche lobe. This secondary star rotates comparatively rapidly at ∼44 km s{sup −1}, and we see evidence that it is chromospherically active. Analysis of a photometric light curve from TESS reveals two strong periods, one at the orbital period for the system and another at half the orbital period. These findings suggest that HD 63021 is a close binary system undergoing mass transfer from the secondary star onto the primary star—in all ways like an Algol eclipsing binary system, except without the eclipse. We discuss the system’s mass transfer, which is not steady but seems to run in fits and bursts, and infer the system’s basic physical properties from an orbital parameter study, the Roche lobe geometry, and its extant X-ray emission.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Evidence for multi-decadal fuel buildup in a large California wildfire from smoke radiocarbon measurements

In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in annual area burned in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. This rise in fire activity has prompted the need to understand how historical forest management practices affect fuel composition and emissions. Here we examined the total carbon (TC) concentration and radiocarbon abundance (Δ 14 C) of particulate matter (PM) emitted by the KNP Complex Fire, which occurred during California's 2021 wildfire season and affected several groves of giant sequoia trees in the southern Sierra Nevada. During a 26 h sampling period, we measured concentrations of fine airborne PM (PM 2.5 ), as well as dry air mole fractions of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH 4 ), using a ground-based mobile laboratory. We also collected filter samples of PM 2.5 for analysis of TC concentration and Δ 14 C. High correlation among PM 2.5 , CO, and CH 4 time series confirmed that our PM 2.5 measurements captured variability in wildfire emissions. Using a Keeling plot approach, we determined that the mean Δ 14 C of PM 2.5 was 111.6 ± 7.7‰ (n = 12), which was considerably enriched relative to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the northern hemisphere in 2021 (-3.2 ± 1.4‰). Combining these Δ 14 C data with a steady-state one-box ecosystem model, we estimated that the mean age of fuels combusted in the KNP Complex Fire was 40 years, with a range of 29–57 years. These results provide evidence for emissions originating from woody biomass, larger-diameter fine fuels, and coarse woody debris that have accumulated over multiple decades. This is consistent with independent field observations that indicate high fire intensity contributed to widespread giant sequoia mortality. With the expanded use of prescribed fires planned over the next decade in California to mitigate wildfire impacts, our measurement approach has the potential to provide regionally-integrated estimates of the effectiveness of fuel treatment programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updates to the ATLAS Data Carousel Project

The High Luminosity upgrade to the LHC (HL-LHC) is expected to deliver scientific data at the multi-exabyte scale. In order to address this unprecedented data storage challenge, the ATLAS experiment launched the Data Carousel project in 2018. Data Carousel is a tape-driven workflow whereby bulk production campaigns with input data resident on tape are executed by staging and promptly processing a sliding window to disk buffer such that only a small fraction of inputs are pinned on disk at any one time. Data Carousel is now in production for ATLAS in Run3. In this paper, we provide updates on recent Data Carousel R&D projects, including data-on-demand and tape smart writing. Data-on-demand removes from disk data that has not been accessed for a predefined period, when users request them, they will be either staged from tape or recreated by following the original production steps. Tape smart writing employs intelligent algorithms for file placement on tape in order to retrieve data back more efficiently, which is our long term strategy to achieve optimal tape usage in Data Carousel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Energetic particle loss mechanisms in reactor-scale equilibria close to quasisymmetry

Abstract Collisionless physics primarily determines the transport of fusion-born alpha particles in 3D equilibria. Several transport mechanisms have been implicated in stellarator configurations, including stochastic diffusion due to class transitions, ripple trapping, and banana drift-convective orbits. Given the guiding center dynamics in a set of six quasihelical and quasiaxisymmetric equilibria, we perform a classification of trapping states and transport mechanisms. In addition to banana drift convection and ripple transport, we observe substantial non-conservation of the parallel adiabatic invariant which can cause losses through diffusive banana tip motion. Furthermore, many lost trajectories undergo transitions between trapping classes on longer time scales, either with periodic or irregular behavior. We discuss possible optimization strategies for each of the relevant transport mechanisms. We perform a comparison between fast ion losses and metrics for the prevalence of mechanisms such as banana-drift convection (Velasco et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 116059), transitioning orbits, and wide orbit widths. Quasihelical configurations are found to have natural protection against ripple-trapping and diffusive banana tip motion leading to a reduction in prompt losses.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Anisotropic Dynamics and Mechanics of Macromolecular Crystals Containing Lattice-Patterned Polymer Networks

The mechanical and functional properties of many crystalline materials depend on cooperative changes in lattice arrangements in response to external perturbations. However, the flexibility and adaptiveness of crystalline materials are limited. Additionally, the bottom-up, molecular-level design of crystals with desired dynamic and mechanical properties at the macroscopic level remains a considerable challenge. To address these challenges, we had previously integrated mesoporous, cubic ferritin crystals with hydrogel networks, resulting in hybrid materials (polymer integrated crystals or PIX) which could undergo dramatic structural changes while maintaining crystalline periodicity and display efficient self-healing. Here, the dynamics and mechanics of these ferritin-PIX were devoid of directionality, which is an important attribute of many molecular and macroscopic materials/devices. In this study, we report that such directionality can be achieved through the use of ferritin crystals with anisotropic symmetries (rhombohedral or trigonal), which enable the templated formation of patterned hydrogel networks in crystallo. The resulting PIX expand and contract anisotropically without losing crystallinity, undergo prompt bending motions in response to stimuli, and self-heal efficiently, capturing some of the essential features of sophisticated biological devices like skeletal muscles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Large language models for transportation research: Methodologies, state of the art, and future opportunities

The rapid rise of large language models (LLMs) is transforming transportation research, with significant advancements emerging between 2023 and 2025, a period marked by the inception and swift growth of adopting and adapting LLMs for various transportation applications. Despite these significant advancements, however, a systematic review and synthesis of the existing literature remains lacking. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing a comprehensive review of the methodologies and applications of LLMs in transportation. We explore key applications, including autonomous driving, travel behavior prediction, and general transportation-related queries, alongside LLM methodologies such as zero- or few-shot learning, prompt engineering, and fine-tuning. From the review, critical research gaps are identified. From the methodological perspective, many of the research limitations can be addressed by integrating LLMs with existing tools and refining LLM architectures. From the application perspective, research opportunities for LLMs to address various transportation challenges are also explored. By synthesizing these findings, this review not only presents the state-of-the-art LLM adoption and adaptation in transportation, but also proposes future research directions as well as insights and recommendations for policymakers and practitioners, paving the way for greater LLM-driven research innovations in transportation in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Air-sea interactions yielding rapid Beaufort Sea ice losses during the 2021 ONR THINICE Pilot Field Campaign

Seasonal sea ice coverage has declined in the Pacific Arctic region. Losses of the ice cover have modified the region’s surface heat and momentum fluxes providing weather systems more direct interaction with the upper ocean. For example, recent cyclones that have passed over these waters have initiated multiple air-sea interactions and have impacted mixed layer depth, wave properties, and sea ice mass budgets due to diabatic and/or advective processes. As a United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research initiative, one key component of the ONR THINICE program was to advance knowledge on Arctic cyclone coupling with the ocean surface, its ice cover, and understand how such coupling can lead to rapid ice loss. Leading up to the primary field campaign in August 2022, a pilot field campaign from 19 August to 13 September 2021 focused in Utqiagvik, Alaska and Longyearbyen, Svalbard was carried out. This period was marked by frequent Arctic cyclones, periods of strong low-level winds, and stints of extreme short-term Beaufort Sea ice area losses. Cyclones traversed these waters much more frequently than usual during this 26-day period, but did not exhibit extreme central pressures indicative of high intensity and impactful storms. Using ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis fields, CERES and AIRS surface flux retrievals, and in situ sensor data collected from ice-tethered profilers and ice mass balance buoys, we highlight air-sea-ice interactions in the Beaufort Sea during and between these cyclones leading up to extreme ice loss events. Our case study analysis is aimed at understanding how Arctic cyclones, including air-sea interactions prompted by their passage over the marginal ice zone, influence the end-of-summer ice conditions and ice loss events. This study provides an example where frequent, yet weak storms drive rather large marginal sea-scale losses albeit with heterogenous sea ice effects at local scales.

Ballinger, Thomas [International Arctic Research C↗

Assessment of the reason for the vitrification of a wall at a hillfort. The example of Broborg in Sweden

It was discovered around 250 years ago that some of the rock material in the walls of some hillforts had been subjected to such high temperature that it had vitrified. This prompted a debate as to the reason for it that is still going on today: did the vitrification come about as a result of hostile action, by accident, or for the purpose of constructing the fort? The present paper is based on the prerequisite that hillforts are different, and therefore should be evaluated individually. All identifiable factors of interest should be included, and especially those that might disprove any alternative. Thus, incentives, competence and petrographic aspects were evaluated for the hillfort Broborg (dated Migration Period, in Sweden A.D. 400 - 550), and it is concluded that the vitrification came about for the purpose of constructing the fort. This capability was lost when mortar was introduced half a millennium later.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Collisionless losses of fast ions in the Divertor Tokamak Test due to toroidal field ripple

In this paper we analyze fast ion motion in the Divertor Tokamak Test device. DTT is planned to be heated through a mix of 45 MW heating power, including 15 MW negative-ion-based Neutral Beam heating (NNBI) which is currently being developed by Consorzio RFX in Padova, Italy. An issue for DTT is that a Toroidal Field (TF) ripple with a maximum value of about 0.42% (with respect to the on-axis magnetic field $B_0$) is expected on the low-field side (LFS), and this ripple interacts with fast ions through rather well-known phenomena of ripple-precession resonances, in addition to prompt losses of ions which do not complete a full orbit in the poloidal plane. We will show that, with the planned geometry of NNBI, prompt losses are negligible, and ripple-precession losses amount to a maximum 0.15%. The calculations are performed with the guiding center code ORBIT using two different equilibria, and a beam with energy 400 keV and injection angle $\alpha_{inj} = 40^{\circ}$ (measured w.r.t. the first wall), which corresponds to a pitch of injected particles $\lambda = v_{\parallel}/v \approx \sin{\alpha_{inj}} = 0.65$. Main resonances are of the form $\omega_b - n N \omega_d = 0$, $\omega_b$ and $\omega_d$ being the bounce and precession frequency, respectively, $N=18$ the ripple periodicity and $3 \le n \le 6$ are the toroidal wavenumbers of the resonances. Although collisionless interaction with the TF ripple does not pose a serious threat to the NNBI project, an open question remains whether the presence of these resonances will interact with fast particles accelerated by \alfven eigenmodes, and if stochastization of the resonances is possible in DTT, as it was observed in the past in TORE SUPRA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fusion Innovation and the Valley of Death—Lessons from Fission

Over the past several decades, the United States (U.S.) and other countries have done important research and development in advanced nuclear energy technologies, both fission and fusion. The urgency of our current climate, energy, and security needs have prompted a concerted effort by innovators, investors, and the public sector to transition from research and development (R&D) to demonstration and commercialization—to cross the proverbial “valley of death.” The stakes are high: humanity needs clean energy options, and the failure of any promising alternative will lower our odds of success. The process of moving an innovation into use has often been described in phases that begin with early research and end with deployment at scale. Between those two phases lies an area often referred to as the “valley of death” because it can require a long period of time, large investments, and often includes significant challenges related to regulation, standardization, and entering markets already structured around incumbent technologies. What can we learn from recent experience with fission to inform our path forward with fusion? At least five key lessons rise to the top: 1) Set bold targets; 2) Empower the private sector; 3) Engage with regulators and the public; 4) Address costs and markets; and 5) Deliver results. Here, this editorial will consider each of these in turn.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Screening IMS Seismic Detections using Dynamic Correlation Processor: Progress report for 2020

LLNL completed the FY20 workplan entailing application of the Dynamic Correlation Processor (DCP) to International Monitoring System (IMS) primary seismic data in 2019 and 2020. The effective analysis period was curtailed to January 1 through November 12, 2019 due to a data compression change that rendered later data unusable. Fixing the data compression error is a priority for our data source, and we plan to extend the period of data analysis when the fix is implemented. We found that the percentage overlap between detections generated by the International Data Centre (IDC) DFX software and detections generated by DCP varied widely by station. Overlap is 30-40% at some stations, suggesting that a large percentage of DFX detections could be screened (removed) from the detection-event association algorithm. However, detection overlap was much lower, a few percent, at many stations and the percentage overlap was low at stations known to have many mines and other local sources of seismicity. Unexpectedly low detection overlap at many stations prompted us to examine results for the ARCES station in detail. There is considerable mine activity near ARCES, but our initial FY20 analysis found only ~2% DCP/DFX detection overlap. Differences in the pre-processing (e.g. beam recipes) used by DCP and DFX appear to be the cause of low detection overlap at ARCES. DCP uses wideband filters to improve detector robustness and the IDC uses narrow-band pre-filtering to improve sensitivity. After reprocessing ARCES using the IDC beam recipe, DCP/DFX overlap increased to ~74%. This result shows that we must reprocess the IMS network using the IDC station-specific beam recipes if we are to effectively screen DFX detections and improve automatic event building performance at the IDC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Illustration of bunch merge simulation in AGS

Following are examples of a 4 to 2 to 1 merge of proton bunches in AGS obtained by running the simulation code ags2mrg23. As the code runs, the user is prompted to enter several numbers. For these examples, RF harmonic number 12.0 is entered. An RF frequency of 4.453 913 448 73 MHz at this harmonic is entered. This gives proton G γ = 45.5. The merge simulation starts with a uniform distribution of unbunched protons. 2.0 eV-s is entered for the longitudinal emittance of the distribution. The code will recommend a voltage to capture the unbunched protons into 4 harmonic 12 buckets. A capture voltage of 0.0527 kV is recommended. 0.053 kV is entered. It is desirable to capture the protons as “adiabatically” as possible. Because of the long synchrotron period (372 ms), a capture time of 74,707 ms is recommended by the code. A shorter time, 10,000 ms, is entered to reduce the running time of the code. A 4 to 2 merge time of 37,353 ms is recommended by the code. 4000.0 ms is entered. A 2 to 1 merge time twice that of the 4 to 2 merge is recommended by the code. 8000.0 ms is entered. The code requests a “time fraction” FQMRG to be entered. This is a number (from 0.1 to 1.0) that determines the time at which data are recorded during the 4 to 2 merge. The number 0.5 is entered. This encodes the recording of data halfway through the 4 to 2 merge.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Synergistic degradation performance of UV / TiO 2 photocatalysis and biotrickling filtration inoculated with Aspergillus sp. S1 for gaseous m ‐xylene

Abstract Background Biotricking filtration (BTF) based on absorption and biodegradation of waste gas by microorganisms in a biofilm can be used to degrade with difficulty hydrophobic volatile pollutants. Photocatalysis is a promising technology for the abatement of gaseous contaminants because of its nonselective oxidation of volatile organic compounds; however, photocatalysis technology has the limitations of high energy consumption and low mineralization efficiency. This study, therefore, aimed to investigate the synergistic effects of UV/TiO 2 photocatalysis (PCO) pretreatment and BTF in treating gaseous m ‐xylene. Results BTF incubated with a mold, Aspergillus sp. S1, was acclimated with m ‐xylene as the sole carbon source. A combined system of PCO with BTF was developed to remove gaseous m ‐xylene. The results showed that the startup period was shortened by 3 days in the PCO‐BTF combined system compared to that with BTF alone. The removal efficiency reached 73% and 91% for the BTF and PCO‐BTF systems respectively when the empty bed residence time was extended to 90 s. In addition, PCO‐BTF could withstand transient shock loading of m ‐xylene of 5000 mg m −3 and gradually restore its decontamination performance. Conclusions PCO pretreatment was effective in the enhancement of the removal capacity of BTF for m ‐xylene. The PCO‐BTF system proposed in this study provides an attractive alternative to abate hydrophobic volatile pollutants. The integration of PCO essentially prompted the capability of Aspergillus sp. S1 in the BTF unit, which paves the way for the treatment of gaseous waste at an industrial scale. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry (SCI).

Du, Qingping↗

Promoting Physical Activity During Pregnancy and the Postpartum Period

Introduction Physical activity is important for improving and maintaining overall health across the life span, including during and after pregnancy. Achieving recommended levels of physical activity can be challenging during pregnancy and the postpartum period. The US Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion sought to promote physical activity during and after pregnancy through the development of health education materials for the Move Your Way campaign. Research was conducted with pregnant and postpartum people to learn what types of messages and materials would encourage physical activity in these populations. Methods Participants were recruited from 3 regions of the United States to participate in 90‐minute virtual focus groups. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older and either pregnant or 6 weeks to 1 year postpartum. Participants were asked questions about their beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions about physical activity and prompted to provide feedback on health promotion messages and images. Sessions were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed for key themes. Results Twenty‐four focus groups were conducted with 48 pregnant participants and 52 postpartum participants. Sixteen sessions were conducted in English and 8 were conducted in Spanish. Most participants had questions about how much physical activity is recommended, and many cited their health care provider as a trusted source of information. Participants responded positively to materials that acknowledged the uniqueness of each pregnant or postpartum experience, referenced gradually increasing physical activity levels, highlighted the benefits of physical activity, focused on safety, addressed common barriers, and displayed realistic representations of physical activity. Discussion There is an opportunity to improve messaging about physical activity during and after pregnancy. To better promote physical activity, perinatal health care providers and other health professionals can share information about recommended amounts of physical activity, communicate the benefits, and promote realistic and achievable physical activity messages that address common barriers in these populations.

Nursing↗

Insights Into Seismicity Associated With Flexibly Operating Enhanced Geothermal System From Real‐Time Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) have the capacity to broaden the accessible resource pool for geothermal power generation. Traditionally viewed as a “baseload” resource, their flexible operation might also enable dispatchable load‐following generation and long‐term energy storage, aligning them with the evolving landscape of decarbonized electricity systems. However, increasing permeability and extracting energy during EGS operations can induce microseismic events; for many prior EGS efforts, some associated seismicity has been observed. While energetically beneficial, the flexibility of EGS operations prompts our inquiry into whether new types of operations will yield previously unseen seismicity patterns. We demonstrate the use of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) with real‐time edge computing to monitor seismicity during a pilot test of a cyclically operated EGS facility at the Blue Mountain geothermal field. Our focus lies in uncovering seismicity insights from the real‐time microseismic catalog, particularly during load‐following dispatchability tests simulating flexible EGS operation. Here, we find that variations in pore pressure consistently correlate with seismicity, and that controlling pressure cycles during flexible operations appears to constrain microseismic activity during subsequent cycles. The spatio‐temporal evolution of microseismic clouds recorded during cyclic injection cycles fits diffusive models over our available observation period. Additionally, seismicity elevation lags behind pore pressure increases, likely due to pressure diffusion to the fracture system boundary. Through real‐time monitoring, we offer novel insights into seismicity associated with flexibly operating EGS. Our findings suggest that leveraging DAS and edge computing can inform EGS operations and help mitigate induced seismicity.

Chamarczuk, Michal [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (Unite↗

Influences on Discharge Partitioning on a Large River Delta: Case Study of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya Diversion, 1926-1950

The modern Mississippi River (M.R.) Delta is plumbed by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers, setting water and sediment dispersal pathways for Earth’s fifth-largest river system. The Atchafalaya River’s (A.R.) partial annexation of discharge from the M.R., particularly between 1926 and 1950, prompted warnings of a rapid river avulsion and the construction of the Old River Control Structure to regulate flow. Natural and anthropogenic causes of this discharge annexation are difficult to disentangle. Here, we develop and validate a hydrodynamic model of flow partitioning through the historic channel network. We then isolate how several key changes to the system affected discharge partitioning and stage at the A.R.-M.R. diversion. Simulations show that erosion of the upper A.R. can account for 73% of the water discharge increase. Dredging in the lower A.R. between 1932 and 1950 can account for 35% of the water discharge increase, and was also an important control on shear stress distribution. The lower M.R. was slightly erosional during this period, and therefore hindered the A.R. discharge increase. Significant lacustrine delta deposition in A.R. had little effect on partitioning. These findings highlight the importance of A.R. enlargement processes on avulsion dynamics at this site. Given the essential nature of this river junction to the society, transportation, and commerce of the United States, improved attribution of discharge increases may lead to future management strategies that are broadly impactful.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗