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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series: Supporting Data

This dataset consists of soil temperature time series that were used to estimate soil thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty trough the probabilistic modelling approach developed and presented in the article named "Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series" and published in Earth Surface Dynamics. There are two compressed (.zip) files that contains synthetic (Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip) and field (Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip) data. There is one MATLAB file that requires MATLAB to execute but any text editor can open it. The Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip file includes 5 comma-delimited data files (.csv) each of which contains soil temperature time series generated through forward modeling (i.e., heat-conduction process in a heterogeneous medium using an explicit finite difference method) to mimic various types of temperature gradients, trend and fluctuations. These synthetic soil temperatures were used to investigate the impact of different environmental conditions on the uncertainty of thermal diffusivity estimates. The Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip file contains 28 comma-delimited data files (.csv) out of which (a) 27 files includes soil temperature time series recorded from 27 temperature probes located in a site along Teller Road about 40 km northwest of Nome, Alaska (64.72°N, 165.94°W), (b) one includes the name and coordinates of the 27 probes. These field soil temperatures were used to infer soil thermal diffusivity at numerous locations and depths in a discontinuous permafrost environment, and to evaluate the links between the estimated soil thermal diffusivity values and soil physical properties. The comma-delimited data files (.csv) of the synthetic and field soil temperature time series includes date and time (UTC) in the first column and soil temperature from 5 cm below the ground surface to 1.05 m depth (with 5 or 10 cm spacing between sensors) in the other columns. The measurements were acquired every 15 minutes. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic creep model incorporating test condition, initial damage, and material property uncertainty

Uncertainty is prevalent in the creep resistance of alloys, where at elevated temperature and low pressure, rupture can range across logarithmic decades. In this study, a probabilistic continuum-damage-mechanics (CDM)-based model is derived to capture the uncertainty of creep resistance. To meet this objective, creep data for alloy 304 Stainless Steel is gathered. A constitutive model, “Sinh”, is calibrated deterministically to determine the statistical variability of the material properties. Three sources of uncertainty are injected into the model: test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage, and material properties. Probabilistic simulations are carried out by (a) calibrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each source of uncertainty (b) randomly sampling the pdfs using Monte Carlo methods and (c) executing simulations to replicate the uncertain creep behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative effect of each source of uncertainty. In full probabilistic simulations, the cumulative uncertainty of creep behavior is evaluated. The probabilistic model accurately predicts the creep deformation and rupture of the available experiments. The probabilistic model is validated for interpolation but lacks extrapolation ability. Several future works are proposed to further improve the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management Data Products

An interlaboratory effort has developed a probabilistic framework to characterize uncertainty in data products that are developed by the US Department of Energy Consequence Management Program in support of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the probability distributions of input variables and the statistical methods used to propagate and quantify the overall uncertainty of the derived response levels that are used as contours on data products due to the uncertainty in input parameters. Uncertainty analysis results are also presented for several study scenarios. This paper includes an example data product to illustrate the potential real-world implications of incorporating uncertainty analysis results into data products that inform protective action decisions. Data product contours that indicate areas where public protection actions may be warranted can be customized to an acceptable level of uncertainty. Finally, the investigators seek feedback from decision makers and the radiological emergency response community to determine how uncertainty information can be used to support the protective action decision-making process and how it can be presented on data products.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

NE-COST plug-in: Expanding ACCERT's Capabilities for Life-Cycle Cost Modeling

The Algorithm for the Capital Cost Estimation of Reactor Technologies (ACCERT) is a structured methodology and software tool designed to simplify and standardize cost estimation for nuclear reactor technologies [1]. By utilizing a relational database structure and modular cost estimation algorithms, ACCERT delivers a robust, flexible, and scalable framework for evaluating costs across various reactor types and configurations [2]. The recent integration of the NE-COST plugin further expands ACCERT’s scope by introducing detailed life-cycle cost modeling and probabilistic analysis of uncertainties. This addition enables users to evaluate costs across front-end processes such as uranium enrichment and fabrication, as well as back-end activities including waste disposal and geologic storage. Through Monte Carlo statistical cost simulations, the plugin provides probabilistic insights into cost ranges, offering critical decision-making support for stakeholders including reactor developers, policymakers, and researchers.

Zhou, Jia↗
DOE OSTI2023

Peatland hydrology across scale: a probabilistic framework for confronting variability, heterogeneity, and uncertainty (Final Report)

Our project aimed to guide the representations of peatland hydrology and water-carbon feedbacks within Earth System Models, by improving process understanding and developing parsimonious models that elucidate the effects of hydroclimatic variability and spatial heterogeneity. Our research questions centered on the three key drivers of peatland hydrology: (1) seasonal and interannual hydroclimatic fluctuations, (2) spatial heterogeneity of peatland microtopography, and (3) hydrological connectivity across landscape units within a peatland watershed. Our analyses and model testing used existing long-term datasets within the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), with new data collected whenever necessary. To date, we have demonstrated the strong influence of water table elevations on the temperature sensitivity of CH 4 emissions, using a newly developed eddy covariance dataset spanning eleven years at MEF. Specifically, higher water tables dampen the increase in CH 4 emissions in the spring as well as their decrease in the fall, resulting in hysteresis. These results imply that any hydroclimatological changes in peatlands that shift seasonal water availability from winter to summer will increase annual CH 4 emissions, even if soil temperature remains unchanged. To further investigate water table elevation change within the peatland microtopography, we installed automated water table gauges across four bog-forest transects (the “lagg”) in two peatland watersheds at MEF, which are hotspots of intense biogeochemical activity. These measurements will give us new information about the extent of lagg expansion and contraction during snowmelt and high intensity rainfall events, as well as the directionality of water and nutrient flow into the bog from the surrounding forests. Finally, we investigated the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex during early spring – a critical period where water table is elevated from snowmelt – using extended hydrological records from MEF (e.g., snow and frost depths, water table elevations, streamflow). The importance of thermal and wintertime processes within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was determined through sensitivity analyses. Results from data analyses show that (i) streamflow has decreased over decades likely due to increased evapotranspiration rates (despite no detectable trends in precipitation), (ii) spring streamflow generation is controlled by a sequence of fill-and-spill pathways from the snowpack to the stream through peatland water stores, and (iii) frost depth is a key explanatory variable for the timing and magnitude of streamflow. These results suggest that frost plays an important role in connecting surface water storage in peatlands to stream outlets, and that the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex can mediate the sensitivity of hydrological responses to climate variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

py-boomer v0.1.0

Py-BOOMER (Python Bayesian OWL Ontology MErgER in Python) is a probabilistic reasoning system for knowledge representation and ontological reasoning with uncertainty. Itnables reasoning over probabilistic facts and taxonomic relationships, finding the most likely consistent interpretation of potentially conflicting assertions. It uses a combination of graph-based reasoning and Bayesian probabilistic inference. Key features: Represent probabilistic ontological statements Reason over class subsumption hierarchies Evaluate class equivalence relationships Detect and resolve logical inconsistencies Calculate posterior probabilities for each assertion

Mungall, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear masses learned from a probabilistic neural network

Machine learning methods and uncertainty quantification have been gaining interest throughout the last several years in low-energy nuclear physics. In particular, Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have increasingly been applied to improve mass model predictions while providing well-quantified uncertainties. In this work, we use the probabilistic Mixture Density Network (MDN) to directly predict the mass excess of the 2016 Atomic Mass Evaluation within the range of measured data, and we extrapolate the inferred models beyond available experimental data. The MDN provides not only mean values but also full posterior distributions both within the training set and extrapolated testing set. We show that the addition of physical information to the feature space increases the accuracy of the match to the training data as well as provides for more physically meaningful extrapolations beyond the the limits of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Calibrated Sodium Data for Preliminary Validation of the SRT Code for Advanced Reactors

Various types of non-light water reactors are currently engaged in the U.S. licensing process. Because of inherent differences compared with well-established large light water reactors, appropriate assessment tools are needed. Specifically, source term analysis, which determines environmental dose impacts from potential accident scenarios, is a crucial part of design and licensing. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has emphasized the importance of mechanistic source term analysis for advanced reactor deployments. To align with these needs, Argonne National Laboratory has developed the Simplified Radionuclide Transport (SRT) source term analysis code for metal fuel Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs) and microreactors. SRT conducts time-dependent radionuclide transport and retention in SFRs for core and ex-core radionuclide source accident sequences. The main objective of SRT is to provide rapid sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, incorporating parametric uncertainties and summarizing probabilistic results. As part of the code validation process, a study focused on the bubble scrubbing module was performed using an experiment recently carried out by the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Based on the analysis, the modeling approach in SRT provides accurate results for small and large aerosols, while slight underprediction of radionuclide aerosol removal are observed for medium sized aerosols. However, the deviation is minor, considering the highly uncertain phenomenon and range of results, and is in the conservative direction. In addition, uncertainty information derived from the experiments is further implemented, reflecting the actual span of parameters, which leads to enhanced agreement with code predictions. The results demonstrate that SRT provides reasonable predictions for the bubble scrubbing process in sodium pool.

Kam, Dong Hoon↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Probabilistic Marching Cubes by Deep Learning for Time-Varying Scalar Ensembles

Visualizing the uncertainty of ensemble simulations is challenging due to the large size and multivariate and temporal features of en-semble data sets. One popular approach to studying the uncertainty of ensembles is analyzing the positional uncertainty of the level sets. Probabilistic marching cubes is a technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of multivariate Gaussian noise distributions for positional uncertainty visualization of level sets. However, the technique suffers from high computational time, making interactive visualization and analysis impossible to achieve. This paper introduces a deep-learning-based approach to learning the level-set uncertainty for two-dimensional ensemble data with a multivariate Gaussian noise assumption. We train the model using the first few time steps from time-varying ensemble data in our workflow. We demonstrate that our trained model accurately infers uncertainty in level sets for new time steps and is up to 170X faster than that of the original probabilistic model with serial computation and 10X faster than that of the original parallel computation.

Han, Mengjiao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Uncertainty in Modeling Stress Corrosion Cracking

This report summarizes the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to improve the state of knowledge on chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). The foundation of this work relied on using SNL’s CISCC computer code to assess the current state of knowledge for probabilistically modeling CISCC on stainless steel canisters. This work is presented as three tasks. The first task is exploring and independently comparing crack growth rate (CGR) models typically used in CISCC modeling by the research community. The second task is implementing two of the more conservative CGR models from the first task into SNL’s full CISCC code to understand the impact of the different CGR models on a full probabilistic analysis while studying uncertainty from three key input parameters. The combined work of the first two tasks showed that properly measuring salt deposition rates is impactful to reducing uncertainty when modeling CISCC. The work in Task 2 also showed how probabilistic CGR models can be more appropriate at capturing aleatory uncertainty when modeling SCC. Lastly, appropriate and realistic input parameters relevant for CISCC modeling were documented in the last task as a product of the simulations considered in the first two tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Computation of Probabilistic Marching Cubes for Efficient Visualization of Level-Set Uncertainty

Uncertainty visualization is an important emerging research area. Being able to visualize data uncertainty can help scientists improve trust in analysis and decision-making. However, visualizing uncertainty can add computational overhead, which can hinder the efficiency of analysis. In this paper, we propose novel data-driven techniques to reduce the computational requirements of the probabilistic marching cubes (PMC) algorithm. PMC is an uncertainty visualization technique that studies how uncertainty in data affects level-set positions. However, the algorithm relies on expensive Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for the multivariate Gaussian uncertainty model because no closed-form solution exists for the integration of multivariate Gaussian. In this work, we propose the eigenvalue decomposition and adaptive probability model techniques that reduce the amount of MC sampling in the original PMC algorithm and hence speed up the computations. Our proposed methods produce results that show negligible differences compared with the original PMC algorithm demonstrated through metrics, including root mean squared error, maximum error, and difference images. We demonstrate the performance and accuracy evaluations of our data-driven methods through experiments on synthetic and real datasets.

Athawale, Tushar↗
DOE OSTI2020

Slip Tendency Analysis of Fracture Networks to Determine Suitability of Candidate Testbeds for the EGS Collab Hydroshear Experiment

Experiment 2 of the EGS Collab project is aimed at testing stimulation by hydro-shearing of existing natural fractures, versus Experiment 1, which is focused on hydraulic fracturing a rock mass to enhance permeability. The main criterion for the testbed selection in Experiment 2 is the presence of an interconnected network of fractures, at least 10 meters in extent, and with orientations such that shear slip can be induced at injection pressures less than the minimum horizontal stress (Shmin). The feasibility analysis for this experiment requires a well-constrained stress state along with well-characterized fracture networks. The fracture systems at two candidate locations in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF), the 4850 Level (number refers to depth below ground surface in feet) and the 4100 Level, have been characterized to different extents. The 4850 Level has a well-characterized Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) from borehole (drilled for an experimental test bed) and drift observations. In contrast, the 4100 level has a fracture network characterized only by observations from the drift wall, which provides little constraint on fracture extents. This paper will present assessments for the interpreted slip potential for the natural fractures at the two locations. Data uncertainties are addressed by performing a probabilistic analysis that takes into account the uncertainty in the stress state, uncertainty in the fracture properties, and preliminary borehole locations. There is strong evidence of shear stimulation of some natural fractures in Experiment 1 on the 4850 level. We use examples of natural fractures strongly linked to shear stimulation in Experiment 1 from multiple monitoring indicators to test the consistency of the stress model and guide the uncertainty interpretation. This analysis is intended to guide the site selection process for Experiment 2 by highlighting the fracture orientations that are likely to be shear-stimulated in a majority of modeled realizations.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗
DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors

Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.

Computer Science↗