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At least 55 records · Page 3

A Bayesian approach to microwave precipitation profile retrieval

A multichannel passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithm is developed. Bayes theorem is used to combine statistical information from numerical cloud models with forward radiative transfer modeling. A multivariate lognormal prior probability distribution contains the covariance information about hydrometeor distribution that resolves the nonuniqueness inherent in the inversion process. Hydrometeor profiles are retrieved by maximizing the posterior probability density for each vector of observations. The hydrometeor profile retrieval method is tested with data from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz) of convection over ocean and land in Florida. The CP-2 multiparameter radar data are used to verify the retrieved profiles. The results show that the method can retrieve approximate hydrometeor profiles, with larger errors over land than water. There is considerably greater accuracy in the retrieval of integrated hydrometeor contents than of profiles. Many of the retrieval errors are traced to problems with the cloud model microphysical information, and future improvements to the algorithm are suggested.

Evans, K. Franklin↗

Microbial Anomalies Encountered on the International Space Station

Microorganisms in our living environments are unavoidable. A community of microbes arrived in space with the delivery of the first element of the International Space Station (ISS), attached to hardware and on the bodies of the humans tasked with the initial assembly missions. The risk that microorganisms could cause adverse effects in the health of both the human occupants of the ISS as well as the physical integrity of the station environment and life support systems has been both a driver and a function of engineering and operational controls. Scientists and engineers at NASA have gone to extensive measures to control microbial growth at levels safe for the crewmembers and the spacecraft environment. Many of these measures were initiated with the design of the spacecraft and its systems. Materials used in the ISS were tested for resistance to fungi, such as mold and a paint with a fungus-killing chemical was also used. Controlling the humidity of the air in the Station is also an effective way of discouraging microbe growth. The breathing air is reconditioned by the Environmental Control Life Support System (ECLSS) prior to distribution, utilizing High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filtration. Requirements restricting the accumulation of water condensate in the air handlers and habitable volume of the ISS were other safeguards added. Water for drinking and food rehydration is disinfected or filtered. A robust in-flight housekeeping regimen for the ISS significantly reduces inappropriate growth of microorganisms and includes a regular cleaning of accessible surfaces with disinfectant wipes. Most of these requirements were suggested by microbiologists to mitigate and possibly prevent many microbiological risks. In addition to these controls, before flight monitoring and analyses of the cabin air, exposed surfaces, water and food, consumables, and crew members are conducted to mitigate microbial risk to the crew and spacecraft. Many microbial risks are much easier to identify and resolve before launch than during space flight. Although the focus has been on prevention of microbiologically related, not all problems can be anticipated. A number of microbial anomalies have occurred on ISS. This paper will discuss the occurrences, root-cause investigations, and mitigation steps taken to remediate the contamination.

Bruce, Rebekah J.↗

Stochastic Nonlinear Response of Woven CMCs

It is well known that failure of a material is a locally driven event. In the case of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), significant variations in the microstructure of the composite exist and their significance on both deformation and life response need to be assessed. Examples of these variations include changes in the fiber tow shape, tow shifting/nesting and voids within and between tows. In the present work, the influence of scale specific architectural features of woven ceramic composite are examined stochastically at both the macroscale (woven repeating unit cell (RUC)) and structural scale (idealized using multiple RUCs). The recently developed MultiScale Generalized Method of Cells methodology is used to determine the overall deformation response, proportional elastic limit (first matrix cracking), and failure under tensile loading conditions and associated probability distribution functions. Prior results showed that the most critical architectural parameter to account for is weave void shape and content with other parameters being less in severity. Current results show that statistically only the post-elastic limit region (secondary hardening modulus and ultimate tensile strength) is impacted by local uncertainties both at the macro and structural level.

Kuang, C. Liu↗

A Path Towards Quantum Advantage in Training Deep Generative Models with Quantum Annealing

A class of quantum-classical hybrid machine-learning algorithms can be obtained by integrating classical deep generative models with quantum probability distributions as 'priors' over their latent variables. We introduce a hybrid implementation of variational autoencoders (QVAE) and also present a technique to hybridize flow-based invertible generative models. We demonstrate the use of D-Wave quantum annealers as physical simulators of quantum Boltzmann machines (QBM) to perform quantum-assisted training of QVAE. Latent-space QBM develop slowly mixing modes, opening a path to obtain quantum advantage in generative modeling with available quantum devices.

Vinci, Walter↗

Habitable Working and Living Spaces in the Deep Space Science Vessel

The Deep Space Science Vessel (DSSV) is a conceptual design of a very large spacecraft intended as a mobile microgravity science platform. It represents an effort to conceptualize the systems and internal architectures needed to support a forty-eight-person crew for multi-year missions throughout the inner solar system and potentially beyond. The general arrangement of the DSSV is a modular spacecraft. Considering only the pressurized, habitable elements, the DSSV includes two large pressurized modules (Hab and Lab) docked together along with eight smaller node modules completing the habitable configuration. The Hab and Lab modules are docked side by side, with the longitudinal axes parallel to each other and a single docking port connecting them. A node module is docked to each dome on the Hab and Lab modules, such that the two small node modules on each end of the large Hab and Lab domes are docked both to each other and to the Hab and Lab. This creates a “racetrack” translation path on the interior. The other four node modules are docked at the center of the Hab and Lab modules, two on each side, creating another “racetrack” translation path perpendicular to the first one. The DSSV has a generally vertical orientation. Within the Hab and Lab modules the decks are perpendicular to the longitudinal axis. The node modules are oriented with their longitudinal axes perpendicular to those of the Hab and Lab modules, so the nodes have a horizontal internal orientation. Decks are numbered one through nine, with decks two and eight representing the “top” and “bottom” domes of the Hab and Lab modules. The Hab Module decks encompass the ship’s galley, crew quarters, waste, hygiene, portions of crew exercise, and group recreation. The Lab Module contains food production facilities, the life science lab, the ship’s infirmary, the physical science lab, and the maintenance and fabrication workshop. The Node Modules serve a number of different functions. The two Exercise Nodes are docked to deck five of both the Hab and Lab modules and contain most of the aerobic and resistive exercise devices. Also docked to deck five but on the opposite side of the Hab and Lab modules are the Observation Deck and Space Café. These two node modules provide social gathering space for small numbers of crew. The Mission Operations Node is on deck nine directly above the Galley and contains spacecraft monitoring and commanding capabilities. Docked to it is the EVA Operations Node, which contains suit maintenance and storage. (The airlock is a separate, external element docked to the EVA Operations Node.) The Subsystems Node is on deck one beneath the maintenance and fabrication workshop. Docked to it is the Stowage Node. This node does not house DSSV primary stowage, but is a staging point where stowage brought in from logistics modules can be sorted, unpacked, or repacked as needed prior to distribution to the appropriate sections of the spacecraft.

Deep Space Habitat↗

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

Bayesian retrieval of optically relevant properties from hyperspectral water-leaving reflectances

Current methods to retrieve optically relevant properties from ocean color observations do not explicitly make use of prior knowledge about property distributions. Here we implement a simplified Bayesian approach that takes into account prior probability distributions on two sets of five optically relevant parameters, and conduct a retrieval of these parameters using hyperspectral simulated water-leaving reflectances. We focus specifically on the ability of the model to distinguish between two optically similar phytoplankton taxa, diatoms and Noctiluca scintillans. The inversion retrieval gives most-likely concentrations and uncertainty estimates, and we find that the model is able to probabilistically predict the occurrence of Noctiluca scintillans blooms using these metrics. We discuss how this method can be expanded to include a priori covariances between different parameters, and show the effect of varying measurement uncertainty and spectral resolution on Noctiluca scintillans bloom predictions.

Zachary K Erickson↗

Statistical methods and neural network approaches for classification of data from multiple sources

Statistical methods for classification of data from multiple data sources are investigated and compared to neural network models. A problem with using conventional multivariate statistical approaches for classification of data of multiple types is in general that a multivariate distribution cannot be assumed for the classes in the data sources. Another common problem with statistical classification methods is that the data sources are not equally reliable. This means that the data sources need to be weighted according to their reliability but most statistical classification methods do not have a mechanism for this. This research focuses on statistical methods which can overcome these problems: a method of statistical multisource analysis and consensus theory. Reliability measures for weighting the data sources in these methods are suggested and investigated. Secondly, this research focuses on neural network models. The neural networks are distribution free since no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of the data is needed. This is an obvious advantage over most statistical classification methods. The neural networks also automatically take care of the problem involving how much weight each data source should have. On the other hand, their training process is iterative and can take a very long time. Methods to speed up the training procedure are introduced and investigated. Experimental results of classification using both neural network models and statistical methods are given, and the approaches are compared based on these results.

Benediktsson, Jon Atli↗

Kullback-Leibler information function and the sequential selection of experiments to discriminate among several linear models

The error variance of the process prior multivariate normal distributions of the parameters of the models are assumed to be specified, prior probabilities of the models being correct. A rule for termination of sampling is proposed. Upon termination, the model with the largest posterior probability is chosen as correct. If sampling is not terminated, posterior probabilities of the models and posterior distributions of the parameters are computed. An experiment was chosen to maximize the expected Kullback-Leibler information function. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were performed to investigate large and small sample behavior of the sequential adaptive procedure.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Distributed network scheduling

Distributed Network Scheduling is the scheduling of future communications of a network by nodes in the network. This report details software for doing this onboard spacecraft in a remote network. While prior work on distributed scheduling has been applied to remote spacecraft networks, the software reported here focuses on modeling communication activities in greater detail and including quality of service constraints. Our main results are based on a Mars network of spacecraft and include identifying a maximum opportunity of improving traverse exploration rate a factor of three; a simulation showing reduction in one-way delivery times from a rover to Earth from as much as 5 to 1.5 hours; simulated response to unexpected events averaging under an hour onboard; and ground schedule generation ranging from seconds to 50 minutes for 15 to 100 communication goals.

planning↗

Bayesian estimation of life parameters in the Weibull distribution.

Development of a Bayesian analysis of the scale and shape parameters in the Weibull distribution and the corresponding reliability function with respect to the usual life-testing procedures. For the scale parameter theta, Bayesian estimates of theta and reliability are obtained for the uniform, exponential, and inverted gamma prior probability densities. Bhattacharya's results (1967) for the one-parameter exponential life-testing distribution are reduced to a special case of these results. A fully Bayesian analysis of both the scale and shape parameters is developed by assuming independent prior distributions; since in the latter case, analytical tractability is not possible, Bayesian estimates are obtained through a conjunction of Monte Carlo simulation and numerical-integration techniques. In both cases, a computer simulation is carried out, and a comparison is made between the Bayesian and the corresponding minimum-variance unbiased, or maximum likelihood, estimates. As expected, the Bayesian estimates are superior.

Canavos, G. C.↗

Influence of meteorological conditions on aerosol vertical distribution and composition off the northeast American coastline

The size distribution and composition of lower tropospheric aerosols were measured off the northeast American coastline under clear air and disturbed meteorological conditions. Under the clear air conditions observed on 5 August 1982, with air flow from west to east, sulfate-rich stratified layers are the dominant feature of aerosol distribution in the lowest 3000 m of the troposphere. The encroachment of a warm frontal system over the study area on 9 August 1982 resulted in dramatic changes in aerosol distribution and composition prior to any precipitation, probably due to increased vertical mixing and dilution of pollutant aerosols. Chloride becomes the dominant water soluble anion in the lower 3000 m, primarily due to a several fold decrease in sulfate. Although these results are limited to only two sets of measurements, the data indicate the variability which can occur in the tropospheric vertical aerosol distributions at remote locations. A knowledge of the structure and stability of these stratified layers is of particular importance to studies of the ocean-troposphere chemistry problem.

Sebacher, D. I.↗

Mineral exploration potential of ERTS-1 data

The author has identified the following significant results. Further analysis of ERTS-1 MSS imagery of Arizona has led to division of the earlier reported three major regional fault/fracture systems into eight subdivisions. These are: System A - N40E to N50E; System B - N50W; System C - N35W; System D - N65E to N75E; System E - N-E; System F - N25W average; System G - N75W average; and System H - close to E-W. Their individual significance to known porphyry coppers and correlation to the Wasatch-Jerome and Front Orogens, the Texas Zone and Basin Range topography is postulated in the report. In this study area of Arizona the ERTS-1 mapped structural trends confirm and greatly extend some concepts of porphyry copper distribution based on prior geologic knowledge of major structural trends.

Brewer, W. A.↗

The Cumulus and Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD)

Low clouds continue to contribute greatly to the uncertainty in cloud feedback estimates. Depending on whether a region is dominated by cumulus (Cu) or stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, the interannual low-cloud feedback is somewhat different in both spaceborne and large-eddy simulation studies. Therefore, simulating the correct amount and variation of the Cu and Sc cloud distributions could be crucial to predict future cloud feedbacks. Here we document spatial distributions and profiles of Sc and Cu clouds derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) and CloudSat measurements. For this purpose, we create a new dataset called the Cumulus And Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD), which identifies Sc, broken Sc, Cu under Sc, Cu with stratiform outflow and Cu. To separate the Cu from Sc, we design an original method based on the cloud height, horizontal extent, vertical variability and horizontal continuity, which is separately applied to both CALIPSO and combined CloudSat–CALIPSO observations. First, the choice of parameters used in the discrimination algorithm is investigated and validated in selected Cu, Sc and Sc–Cu transition case studies. Then, the global statistics are compared against those from existing passive- and active-sensor satellite observations. Our results indicate that the cloud optical thickness – as used in passive-sensor observations – is not a sufficient parameter to discriminate Cu from Sc clouds, in agreement with previous literature. Using clustering-derived datasets shows better results although one cannot completely separate cloud types with such an approach. On the contrary, classifying Cu and Sc clouds and the transition between them based on their geometrical shape and spatial heterogeneity leads to spatial distributions consistent with prior knowledge of these clouds, from ground-based, ship-based and field campaigns. Furthermore, we show that our method improves existing Sc–Cu classifications by using additional information on cloud height and vertical cloud fraction variation. Finally, the CASCCAD datasets provide a basis to evaluate shallow convection and stratocumulus clouds on a global scale in climate models and potentially improve our understanding of low-level cloud feedbacks. The CASCCAD dataset (Cesana, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2667637) is available on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) website at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/clouds/casccad/ (last access: 5 November 2019) and on the zenodo website at https://zenodo.org/record/2667637 (last access: 5 November 2019).

Cesana, Gregory V.↗

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗

Blast from the Past: ASDC Curation for NASA Suborbital Legacy Missions to Promote Data Discovery and Accessibility

NASA has an extensive history of conducting suborbital field campaigns to further advances in atmospheric sciences. Beginning with the Chemical Instrument Test and Evaluation (CITE) conducted in 1983-1984, NASA has completed many suborbital campaigns over the past three decades. Since the early 2010s, suborbital missions are typically assigned to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) prior to the mission for long-term archival and distribution. Efforts are being made by NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project and the Airborne Data Management Group (ADMG) to assign legacy missions to DAACs for permanent archival and distribution, so that these valuable datasets remain to be available to the scientific community. NASA’s Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) has been named the assigned DAAC for nearly 20 atmospheric composition legacy missions, including missions conducted as part of the Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) and expects to be named the assigned DAAC for more of these missions over the next few years. The primary goal of the ASDC is to provide access to the datasets as they are currently formatted to the broad user community and enhance their findability and accessibility. However, data reporting standards have evolved significantly since 1983 and the datasets span a wide variety of file formats, including text, Ames, GTE, and ICARTT (International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation), and the amount of metadata and relevant information included in the files also varies greatly and can not be readily extracted without subject matter knowledge. This has caused challenges for the ASDC’s suborbital metadata extraction pipeline in ensuring that accurate and necessary metadata is being provided for the missions by all the ASDC’s existing search mechanisms. To make the data more findable and accessible, the ASDC has begun researching ways to further enhance the datasets, including distributing value-added products (i.e. consistent file format such as ICARTT or netCDF), adding standard names from the ESDIS Standards Coordination Office (ESCO)-approved Atmospheric Composition Variable Standard Names Convention (ACVSNC), and creating outreach materials such as ArcGIS StoryMaps, User Guides, and Micro Articles, providing overviews of the missions and what type of data was collected during the missions. These efforts also help support NASA’s Open-Source Science by enhancing the FAIRness of the legacy data products. This presentation will review the ASDC’s ongoing efforts, progress made, and future plans for legacy missions.

Megan Buzanowicz↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗