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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Cross-property deep transfer learning framework for enhanced predictive analytics on small materials data

Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have been increasingly used in materials science to build predictive models and accelerate discovery. For selected properties, availability of large databases has also facilitated application of deep learning (DL) and transfer learning (TL). However, unavailability of large datasets for a majority of properties prohibits widespread application of DL/TL. We present a cross-property deep-transfer-learning framework that leverages models trained on large datasets to build models on small datasets of different properties. We test the proposed framework on 39 computational and two experimental datasets and find that the TL models with only elemental fractions as input outperform ML/DL models trained from scratch even when they are allowed to use physical attributes as input, for 27/39 (≈ 69%) computational and both the experimental datasets. We believe that the proposed framework can be widely useful to tackle the small data challenge in applying AI/ML in materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

A predictive analytic model for the solar modulation of cosmic rays

An important factor limiting our ability to understand the production and propagation of cosmic rays pertains to the effects of heliospheric forces, commonly known as solar modulation. The solar wind is capable of generating time- and charge-dependent effects on the spectrum and intensity of low-energy (≲10 GeV) cosmic rays reaching Earth. Previous analytic treatments of solar modulation have utilized the force-field approximation, in which a simple potential is adopted whose amplitude is selected to best fit the cosmic-ray data taken over a given period of time. Making use of recently available cosmic-ray data from the Voyager 1 spacecraft, along with measurements of the heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind, we construct a time-, charge- and rigidity-dependent model of solar modulation that can be directly compared to data from a variety of cosmic-ray experiments. Here, we provide a simple analytic formula that can be easily utilized in a variety of applications, allowing us to better predict the effects of solar modulation and reduce the number of free parameters involved in cosmic-ray propagation models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Analytic prediction of airplane equilibrium spin characteristics

The nonlinear equations of motion are solved algebraically for conditions for which an airplane is in an equilibrium spin. Constrained minimization techniques are employed in obtaining the solution. Linear characteristics of the airplane about the equilibrium points are also presented and their significance in identifying the stability characteristics of the equilibrium points is discussed. Computer time requirements are small making the method appear potentially applicable in airplane design. Results are obtained for several configurations and are compared with other analytic-numerical methods employed in spin prediction. Correlation with experimental results is discussed for one configuration for which a rather extensive data base was available. A need is indicated for higher Reynolds number data taken under conditions which more accurately simulate a spin.

Adams, W. M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Analytical prediction and experimental verification of performance at various operating conditions of a dual-mode traveling wave tube with multistage depressed collectors

A comparison of analytical and experimental results is presented for a high performance dual-mode traveling wave tube (TWT) operated over a wide range conditions. The computations are carried out with advanced multidimensional computer programs. These programs model the electron beam as a series of disks or rings of charge and follow their trajectories from the rf input of the TWT through the slow-wave structure refocusing system to their points of impacts in the depressed collector. TWT performance, collector efficiency, and collector current distribution are computed and compared with measurements. Very good agreement was obtained between computed and measured TWT performance and collector efficiencies, and the computer design of a highly efficient collector was demonstrated.

Dayton, J. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Analytical prediction with multidimensional computer programs and experimental verification of the performance, at a variety of operating conditions, of two traveling wave tubes with depressed collectors

Experimental and analytical results are compared for two high performance, octave bandwidth TWT's that use depressed collectors (MDC's) to improve the efficiency. The computations were carried out with advanced, multidimensional computer programs that are described here in detail. These programs model the electron beam as a series of either disks or rings of charge and follow their multidimensional trajectories from the RF input of the ideal TWT, through the slow wave structure, through the magnetic refocusing system, to their points of impact in the depressed collector. Traveling wave tube performance, collector efficiency, and collector current distribution were computed and the results compared with measurements for a number of TWT-MDC systems. Power conservation and correct accounting of TWT and collector losses were observed. For the TWT's operating at saturation, very good agreement was obtained between the computed and measured collector efficiencies. For a TWT operating 3 and 6 dB below saturation, excellent agreement between computed and measured collector efficiencies was obtained in some cases but only fair agreement in others. However, deviations can largely be explained by small differences in the computed and actual spent beam energy distributions. The analytical tools used here appear to be sufficiently refined to design efficient collectors for this class of TWT. However, for maximum efficiency, some experimental optimization (e.g., collector voltages and aperture sizes) will most likely be required.

Dayton, J. A., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Multivariate Predictive Analytics of Wind Power Data for Robust Control of Energy Storage

Short-term forecasting is frequently identified as an important tool for the effective management of wind generation. However, forecasting errors, inherent to the point forecasts, increase requirements for energy storage and can affect optimal system operation. Probabilistic forecasts can help tackle this issue by providing a proper characterization of forecasting errors in the optimization process. This paper proposes a multivariate model of forecasting data for wind generation. Predictive uncertainty intervals of wind power can be obtained by sampling from the proposed model. The main goal is to use empirical data models without linear or Gaussian approximations of the distributional or temporal variations. The predictive modeling is utilized within a case study of an energy storage system. Finally, a modified robust convex programming is used to maintain the practical robustness and feasibility of the solution based on the sampled scenarios from the model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Predictive analytics tools to adjust and monitor performance metrics for the ATLAS Production System

Having information such as an estimation of the processing time or possibility of system outage (abnormal behaviour) helps to assist to monitor system performance and to predict its next state. The current cyber-infrastructure of the ATLAS Production System presents computing conditions in which contention for resources among high-priority data analyses happens routinely, that might lead to significant workload and data handling interruptions. The lack of the possibility to monitor and to predict the behaviour of the analysis process (its duration) and system's state itself provides motivation for a focus on design of the built-in situational awareness analytic tools.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2001

Absorbed Dose Determination Using Experimental and Analytical Predictions of X-Ray Spectra

Electron beam welding in a vacuum is a technology that NASA is investigating as a joining technique for manufacture of space structures. This investigation characterizes the x-ray environment due to operation of an in-vacuum electron beam welding tool and provides recommendations for adequate shielding for astronauts performing the in-vacuum electron beam welding. NASA, in a joint venture with the Russian Space Agency, was scheduled to perform a series of welding in space experiments on board the U.S. Space Shuttle. This series of experiments was named the international space welding experiment (ISWE). The hardware associated with the ISWE was leased to NASA by the Paton Welding Institute (PWI) in Ukraine for ground-based welding experiments in preparation for flight. Two ground tests were scheduled, using the ISWE electron beam welding tool, to characterize the radiation exposure to an astronaut during the operation of the ISWE. These radiation exposure tests used thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLD's) shielded with material currently used by astronauts during extravehicular activities to measure the radiation dose. The TLD's were exposed to x-ray radiation generated by operation of the ISWE in-vacuum electron beam welding tool. This investigation was the first known application of TLD's to measure absorbed dose from x rays of energy less than 10 keV. The ISWE hardware was returned to Ukraine before the issue of adequate shielding for the astronauts was completely verified. Therefore, alternate experimental and analytical methods were developed to measure and predict the x-ray spectral and intensity distribution generated by ISWE electron beam impact with metal. These x-ray spectra were normalized to an equivalent ISWE exposure, then used to calculate the absorbed radiation dose to astronauts. These absorbed dose values were compared to TLD measurements obtained during actual operation of the ISWE in-vacuum electron beam welding tool. The calculated absorbed dose values were found to be in agreement with the measured TLD values.

Edwards, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Analytical prediction of aerothermal environment in a wing-elevon cove

The fluid/thermal environment in the cove between the wing and elevon surfaces was a concern throughout the design and initial operational phases of the space shuttle. Experimenal and analytical investigations provided some understanding of the environmental in the wing-elevon cove. An incompressible finite element analysis of flow through straight parallel walls and curved parallel walls to determine the effects of cove geomtry on the fluid/thermal environment is described. Results from this analysis agree qualitatively with experimental data. The centerline gas temperatures and cold wall heating rates are virtually identical for the two cases indicating that the slight curvature has little effect on the overall thermal environment.

Bey, K. S.↗

DOE OSTI2016

The EFT of Large Scale Structures at all redshifts: analytical predictions for lensing

We study the prediction of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures (EFTofLSS) for the matter power spectrum at different redshifts. In previous work, we found that the two-loop prediction can match the nonlinear power spectrum measured from N -body simulations at redshift zero within approximately 2% up to k ∼ 0.6 h Mpc{sup -1} after fixing a single free parameter, the so-called 'speed of sound'. We determine the time evolution of this parameter by matching the EFTofLSS prediction to simulation output at different redshifts, and find that it is well-described by a fitting function that only includes one additional parameter. After the two free parameters are fixed, the prediction agrees with nonlinear data within approximately 2% up to at least k ∼ 1 h Mpc{sup -1} at z ≥ 1, and also within approximately 5% up to k ∼ 1.2 h Mpc{sup -1} at z =1 and k ∼ 2.3 h Mpc{sup -1} at z =3, a major improvement with respect to other perturbative techniques. We also develop an accurate way to estimate where the EFTofLSS predictions at different loop orders should fail, based on the sizes of the next-order terms that are neglected, and find agreement with the actual comparisons to data. Finally, we use our matter power spectrum results to perform analytical calculations of lensing potential power spectra corresponding to both CMB and galaxy lensing. This opens the door to future direct applications of the EFTofLSS to observations of gravitational clustering on cosmic scales.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Analytics for Hydropower Fleet Intelligence

A primary challenge in hydropower industry is the ability to maintain cost-competitiveness, reliability, and security of hydropower assets through evolving power system contexts and aging of the fleet. Maintaining cost-effective and reliable operations under these conditions is expected to require new modernization and maintenance paradigms for changing contexts. Changes in existing practices for O&M will require an understanding of the current state and health of hydropower assets, and the impact of changing paradigms on asset health and reliability. The Hydropower Fleet Intelligence project is developing and evaluating standardized methodologies and analysis tools for data-driven asset reliability and management technologies for hydropower, leading to eventual predictive maintenance planning, repair/replacement decision making, and asset-reliability and cost-optimized operations. A key question is the feasibility of using existing data sets at hydropower facilities to perform assessments of asset reliability. This document uses data from hydropower facilities to assess the potential for using available analytics methods for asset reliability estimates. In addition to reliability assessments, the feasibility of using existing analytics techniques for several other potential applications is discussed. Finally, a case study that a data-driven model is trained to learn nominal operations via vibration data from an asset of a certain plant, and then utilized to identify anomalies on a similar asset from a different plant, highlighting the generic use of proposed Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) approaches.

Yucesan, Yigit↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analytical prediction of the performance and stability of a J85-13 compressor with distorted inlet flow

The parallel compressor concept was studied using a compressor model based on the overall clean-inlet performance map obtained from experimental tests in an altitude chamber using a General Electric J85-13 turbojet engine. The model, which includes a static-pressure balance calculation at compressor discharge, was exercised at conditions corresponding to 10 different screen-induced distortion patterns included in the experimental data base. The spoiled area of these patterns ranged from 30 deg to 180 deg, and the distortion screen density, or the area blocked by the screen wire per unit area of screen, varied from 26 to 69 percent. The study indicates that at the higher corrected speeds, the analytical surge lines obtained are good representations of the corresponding experimental surge lines and are independent of distortion angle or distortion angle or distortion level.

Milner, E. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

DOE OSTI2015

A predictive analytic model for high-performance tunneling field-effect transistors approaching non-equilibrium Green's function simulations

A new compact modeling approach is presented which describes the full current-voltage (I-V) characteristic of high-performance (aggressively scaled-down) tunneling field-effect-transistors (TFETs) based on homojunction direct-bandgap semiconductors. The model is based on an analytic description of two key features, which capture the main physical phenomena related to TFETs: (1) the potential profile from source to channel and (2) the elliptic curvature of the complex bands in the bandgap region. It is proposed to use 1D Poisson's equations in the source and the channel to describe the potential profile in homojunction TFETs. This allows to quantify the impact of source/drain doping on device performance, an aspect usually ignored in TFET modeling but highly relevant in ultra-scaled devices. The compact model is validated by comparison with state-of-the-art quantum transport simulations using a 3D full band atomistic approach based on non-equilibrium Green's functions. It is shown that the model reproduces with good accuracy the data obtained from the simulations in all regions of operation: the on/off states and the n/p branches of conduction. This approach allows calculation of energy-dependent band-to-band tunneling currents in TFETs, a feature that allows gaining deep insights into the underlying device physics. The simplicity and accuracy of the approach provide a powerful tool to explore in a quantitatively manner how a wide variety of parameters (material-, size-, and/or geometry-dependent) impact the TFET performance under any bias conditions. The proposed model presents thus a practical complement to computationally expensive simulations such as the 3D NEGF approach.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Clustering-Based Predictive Analytics to Improve Scientific Data Discovery

Given the sheer volume of scientific data archived within the data-intensive projects at the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, finding precisely what data we are looking for may not be a trivial task; conversely, we may also miss a more prominent data product. To address such issues, we propose improving the data discovery system and using data analytics methods to comprehend what specific users might be interested in based on their physiological state, search patterns, and past data usage history. This work's primary goal is to prune the complexity, increase the visibility of popular data products, and direct users toward the data that best meet their needs. The proposed algorithm constructs a user profile based on the user's explicit or implicit interactions with the system, such as items they are currently looking at on-site and the key metadata mappings related to the data set. The pattern is then used to build a training data set, which will help find relevant data to recommend to the user.

Devarakonda, Ranjeet↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Alternative Timing and Synchronization Approach for Situational Awareness and Predictive Analytics

Accurate and synchronized timing information is required by power system operators for controlling the grid infrastructure (relays, Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), etc.) and determining asset positions. Satellite-based global positioning system (GPS) is the primary source of timing information. However, GPS disruptions today (both intentional and unintentional) can significantly compromise the reliability and security of our electric grids. A robust alternate source for accurate timing is critical to serve both as a deterrent against malicious attacks and as a redundant system in enhancing the resilience against extreme events that could disrupt the GPS network. To achieve this, we rely on the highly accurate, terrestrial atomic clock-based network for alternative timing and synchronization. In this paper, we discuss an experimental setup for an alternative timing approach. The data obtained from this experimental setup is continuously monitored and analyzed using various time deviation metrics. We also use these metrics to compute deviations of our clock with respect to the National Institute of Standards and Technologys (NIST) GPS data. The results obtained from these metric computations are elaborately discussed. Finally, we discuss the integration of the procedures involved, like real-time data ingestion, metric computation, and result visualization, in a novel microservices-based architecture for situational awareness.

Chinthavali, Supriya↗