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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of an aerostructural machining process using physics-guided Bayesian stability modelling

Existing algorithms for predicting milling chatter have not been widely adopted in industry since they require specialized instruments to measure the stability inputs. This study describes how the machining process for a meter-scale aluminum aerostructure was optimized using a physics-guided Bayesian stability model. The study was performed in collaboration with an industrial partner on production machines to evaluate the practicality of the proposed method under real-world conditions. For each cutting tool, the Bayesian approach automatically selected a small number of cutting tests, which were monitored using a microphone to observe the chatter frequency. The algorithm learned the system dynamics, cutting forces, and stability map from these test results. A novel algorithm for predicting tool bending stress was incorporated into the test selection algorithm to avoid tool breakage. On average, each set of optimized cutting parameters required less than six tests to identify and were 97% more productive than baseline parameters from the cutting tool manufacturer. The machining program was then further optimized using commercial feedrate scheduling software to remove cutting force spikes and reduce air cutting time. Five components were machined using the optimized process. These results demonstrate the potential for physics-guided Bayesian models to improve productivity in industrial settings.

Cornelius, Aaron [UT Knoxville]↗
NASA NTRS1977

Range validation using Kalman filter techniques

Range pseudo-residuals may be improved to the level required for data validation by a measurement updating process which utilizes Bierman's adaptation of the Kalman filter measurement updating algorithms together with process noise compensation to account for model errors. This algorithm involves combining the currently available range predictions and measurements to produce an updated range residual measurement whose accuracy is constrained by the range data quality and by the estimated error in the prediction. The algorithm is compact and fast, and is thus suitable for on-line applications in network control or at the station.

Madrid, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Hunter, H. E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional Relevance of CASP16 Nucleic Acid Predictions as Evaluated by Structure Providers

ABSTRACT Accurate biomolecular structure prediction enables the prediction of mutational effects, the speculation of function based on predicted structural homology, the analysis of ligand binding modes, experimental model building, and many other applications. Such algorithms to predict essential functional and structural features remain out of reach for biomolecular complexes containing nucleic acids. Here, we report a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of nucleic acid structures for the CASP16 blind prediction challenge by 12 of the experimental groups who provided nucleic acid targets. Blind predictions accurately model secondary structure and some aspects of tertiary structure, including reasonable global folds for some complex RNAs; however, predictions often lack accuracy in the regions of highest functional importance. All models have inaccuracies in non‐canonical regions where, for example, the nucleic‐acid backbone bends, deviating from an A‐form helix geometry, or a base forms a non‐standard hydrogen bond (not a Watson‐Crick base pair). These bends and non‐canonical interactions are integral to forming functionally important regions such as RNA enzymatic active sites. Additionally, the modeling of conserved and functional interfaces between nucleic acids and ligands, proteins, or other nucleic acids remains poor. For some targets, the experimental structures may not represent the only structure the biomolecular complex occupies in solution or in its functional life cycle, posing a future challenge for the community.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Data to Insights: A Covariate Analysis of the IARPA BRIAR Dataset for Multimodal Biometric Recognition Algorithms at Altitude and Range

This paper examines covariate effects on fused whole body biometrics performance in the IARPA BRIAR dataset, specifically focusing on UAV platforms, elevated positions, and distances up to 1000 meters. The dataset includes outdoor videos compared with indoor images and controlled gait recordings. Normalized raw fusion scores relate directly to predicted false accept rates (FAR), offering an intuitive means for interpreting model results. A linear model is developed to predict biometric algorithm scores, analyzing their performance to identify the most influential covariates on accuracy at altitude and range. Weather factors like temperature, wind speed, solar loading, and turbulence are also investigated in this analysis. The study found that resolution and camera distance best predicted accuracy and findings can guide future research and development efforts in long-range/elevated/UAV biometrics and support the creation of more reliable and robust systems for national security and other critical domains.

Bolme, David↗
NASA NTRS1981

A numerical simulation of hypersonic viscous flow over arbitrary geometries at angle of attack

An implicit conservative, noniterative, finite-difference algorithm that predicts the supersonic, laminar or turbulent viscous flow about arbitrary geometries at large angles of attack is presented. The three-dimensional parabolized form of the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations are written in generalized coordinates. These equations are solved using the delta form of the Beam-Warming implicit algorithm. Flow field simulations have been obtained for a blunt biconic with windward and leeward cuts and an X-24C lifting body for both laminar and turbulent flow at various Mach numbers and angles of attack. When compared with experiment or with previous theories, these computational predictions show good agreement.

Chaussee, D. S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feature engineering descriptors, transforms, and machine learning for grain boundaries and variable-sized atom clusters

Abstract Obtaining microscopic structure-property relationships for grain boundaries is challenging due to their complex atomic structures. Recent efforts use machine learning to derive these relationships, but the way the atomic grain boundary structure is represented can have a significant impact on the predictions. Key steps for property prediction common to grain boundaries and other variable-sized atom clustered structures include: (1) describing the atomic structure as a feature matrix, (2) transforming the variable-sized feature matrix to a fixed length common to all structures, and (3) applying a machine learning algorithm to predict properties from the transformed matrices. We examine how these steps and different combinations of engineered features impact the accuracy of grain boundary energy predictions using a database of over 7000 grain boundaries. Additionally, we assess how different engineered features support interpretability, offering insights into the physics of the structure-property relationships.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling integrated AI control on DIII-D: a control system design with state-of-the-art experiments

We present the design and application of a general algorithm for Prediction And Control using MAchiNe learning (PACMAN) in DIII-D. Machine learning (ML)-based predictors and controllers have shown great promise in achieving regimes in which traditional controllers fail, such as tearing mode (TM) free scenarios, ELM-free scenarios and stable advanced tokamak conditions. The architecture presented here was deployed on DIII-D to facilitate the end-to-end implementation of advanced control experiments, from diagnostic processing to final actuation commands. This paper describes the detailed design of the algorithm and explains the motivation behind each design point. We also describe several successful ML control experiments in DIII-D using this algorithm, including a reinforcement learning controller targeting advanced non-inductive plasmas, a wide-pedestal quiescent H-mode ELM predictor, an Alfvén Eigenmode controller, a Model Predictive Control plasma profile controller and a state-machine TM predictor-controller. There is also discussion on guiding principles for real-time ML controller design and implementation.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1987

On a finite element CFD algorithm for compressible, viscous and turbulent aerodynamic flows

This paper develops and analyses individual construction aspects of an efficient and accurate finite element algorithm for prediction of viscous and turbulent flow fields of impact in aerodynamics. The theoretical construction employs a Taylor weak statement (TWS) for coincident embedding of stability mechanisms within a classic Galerkin finite element formulation of semidiscrete approximation error orthogonalization. A wide variety of the stabilizing mechanisms of independently derived CFD algorithms are contained within the TWS theory. An implicit construction that meets the requirement of efficient convergence to steady state is developed. The theoretical asymptotic error estimates of the TWS finite element algorithm for supersonic and viscous boundary layer flows are verified. Application to a three-dimensional turbulent flow is cited.

Baker, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A high order accurate finite element algorithm for high Reynolds number flow prediction

A Galerkin-weighted residuals formulation is employed to establish an implicit finite element solution algorithm for generally nonlinear initial-boundary value problems. Solution accuracy, and convergence rate with discretization refinement, are quantized in several error norms, by a systematic study of numerical solutions to several nonlinear parabolic and a hyperbolic partial differential equation characteristic of the equations governing fluid flows. Solutions are generated using selective linear, quadratic and cubic basis functions. Richardson extrapolation is employed to generate a higher-order accurate solution to facilitate isolation of truncation error in all norms. Extension of the mathematical theory underlying accuracy and convergence concepts for linear elliptic equations is predicted for equations characteristic of laminar and turbulent fluid flows at nonmodest Reynolds number. The nondiagonal initial-value matrix structure introduced by the finite element theory is determined intrinsic to improved solution accuracy and convergence. A factored Jacobian iteration algorithm is derived and evaluated to yield a consequential reduction in both computer storage and execution CPU requirements while retaining solution accuracy.

Baker, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Prediction and causal reasoning in planning

Nonlinear planners are often touted as having an efficiency advantage over linear planners. The reason usually given is that nonlinear planners, unlike their linear counterparts, are not forced to make arbitrary commitments to the order in which actions are to be performed. This ability to delay commitment enables nonlinear planners to solve certain problems with far less effort than would be required of linear planners. Here, it is argued that this advantage is bought with a significant reduction in the ability of a nonlinear planner to accurately predict the consequences of actions. Unfortunately, the general problem of predicting the consequences of a partially ordered set of actions is intractable. In gaining the predictive power of linear planners, nonlinear planners sacrifice their efficiency advantage. There are, however, other advantages to nonlinear planning (e.g., the ability to reason about partial orders and incomplete information) that make it well worth the effort needed to extend nonlinear methods. A framework is supplied for causal inference that supports reasoning about partially ordered events and actions whose effects depend upon the context in which they are executed. As an alternative to a complete but potentially exponential-time algorithm, researchers provide a provably sound polynomial-time algorithm for predicting the consequences of partially ordered events.

Dean, T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed machine learning to predict solvatochromic parameters of designer solvents with case studies in CO 2 and lignin dissolution

The polarity of solvents plays a critical role in various research applications, particularly in their solubilities. Polarity is conveniently characterized by the Kamlet-Taft parameters that is, the hydrogen bonding acidity (α), the basicity (β), and the polarizability (π*). Obtaining Kamlet-Taft parameters is very important for designer solvents, namely ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DESs). However, given the unlimited theoretical number of combinations of ionic pairs in ILs and hydrogen-bond donor/acceptor pairs in DESs, experimental determination of their Kamlet-Taft parameters is impractical. To address this, the present study developed two different machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict Kamlet-Taft parameters for designer solvents using quantum chemically derived input features. The ML models developed in the present study showed accurate predictions with high R 2 and low RMSE values. Further, in the context of present interest in the circular bioeconomy, the relationship between the basicities and acidities of designer solvents and their ability to dissolve lignin and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is discussed. Our method thus guides the design of effective solvents with optimal Kamlet-Taft parameter values dissolving and converting biomass and CO 2 into valuable chemicals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Queue wait time prediction in high performance computing (HPC) systems

High Performance Computing (HPC) systems are critical enablers for groundbreaking scientific research across various domains. Efficient resource allocation, facilitated by job scheduling, is paramount for maximizing the utilization of HPC systems. However, the variability in wait times for queued jobs poses challenges for users, necessitating accurate job wait time estimation. This paper explores the influence of job characteristics, including job size (the number of nodes requested and walltime), the queue to which the job is submitted and other resource requirements, on job wait times in leadership-class HPC systems. Focusing on the Theta Cray XC40 and Polaris machines at Argonne National Laboratory, the study evaluates the performance of different supervised learning algorithms in predicting job wait times. It also evaluates the impact of data preprocessing, including outlier detection, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and feature selection, on the performance of wait time prediction models. The findings reveal insights into the relationship between job characteristics and wait times, offering a foundation for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing user experience. The methodologies and tools developed in this study are adaptable to other leadership-class HPC systems, providing a valuable contribution to the broader HPC community aiming to improve job scheduling efficiency and user satisfaction.

Okafor, Nwamaka↗
NASA NTRS1983

User's manual for a TEACH computer program for the analysis of turbulent, swirling reacting flow in a research combustor

Described is a computer program for the analysis of the subsonic, swirling, reacting turbulent flow in an axisymmetric, bluff-body research combustor. The program features an improved finite-difference procedure designed to reduce the effects of numerical diffusion and a new algorithm for predicting the pressure distribution within the combustor. A research version of the computer program described in the report was supplied to United Technologies Research Center by Professor A. D. Gosman and his students, R. Benodeker and R. I. Issa, of Imperial College, London. The Imperial College staff also supplied much of the program documentation. Presented are a description of the mathematical model for flow within an axisymmetric bluff-body combustor, the development of the finite-difference procedure used to represent the system of equations, an outline of the algorithm for determining the static pressure distribution within the combustor, a description of the computer program including its input format, and the results for representative test cases.

Chiappetta, L. M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗