Impact of Building Characteristics on Energy Demand Profile Forecasting: An Evaluation of Predictive Accuracy and Methods
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Chowdhury, Shovan [ORNL]↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Prediction Accuracy”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Reduced-Order Modeling of Multigroup Neutron Cross Sections for High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors
Abstract – Deterministic neutronics calculations rely on multigroup neutron cross section libraries, which consist of databases of tabulated values, used to calculate the neutron cross sections through multivariate linear interpolation. However, interpolation of the multidimensional cross section data becomes memory inefficient and time consuming as the number of tabulations increases, significantly slowing down the neutronics calculation, especially in the case of microscopic cross section libraries where every isotope (on the order of hundreds) has its own set of specific reactions and cross sections. In order to address this challenge, this work constructs efficient and robust reduced-order models (ROMs) of the multi-group cross sections to support the Griffin simulation of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The first part of the study investigates the linearity of the multigroup cross section data across isotopes, reaction types, and energy groups on pre-generated datasets for the purpose of dimensionality reduction. Secondly, a down-selection of ROM techniques is presented on representative classical machine learning (ML) techniques, including variants of linear regression, kernel-based methods, tree-based algorithms, and artificial neural networks. The selection criteria jointly consider the memory efficiency, predictive accuracy, prediction speed, and scalability in comparison to the multidimensional interpolation. Among all the ML techniques, deep neural networks (DNNs) have proven to be the best selection with sufficient accuracy, high robustness, good memory efficiency, great scalability, and superior flexibility. DNNs have been trained for all isotopes in this work and systematic Griffin testing is ongoing to ensure the feasibility of this ROM technique for predicting cross section and reducing memory requirements without a significant sacrifice in computational performance.
42 - ENGINEERING↗
Advanced Cross Section Library Generation using Reduced Order Models
Deterministic neutronics calculations rely on multigroup neutron cross section libraries, which consist of databases of tabulated values, used to calculate the neutron cross sections through multivariate linear interpolation. However, interpolation of the multidimensional cross section data becomes memory inefficient and time consuming as the number of tabulations increases, significantly slowing down the neutronics calculation, especially in the case of microscopic cross section libraries where every isotope (on the order of hundreds) has its own set of specific reactions and cross sections. In order to address this challenge, this work constructs efficient and robust reduced-order models (ROMs) of the multi-group cross sections to support the Griffin simulation of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The first part of the study investigates the linearity of the multigroup cross section data across isotopes, reaction types, and energy groups on pre-generated datasets for the purpose of dimensionality reduction. Secondly, a down-selection of ROM techniques is presented on representative classical machine learning (ML) techniques, including variants of linear regression, kernel-based methods, tree-based algorithms, and artificial neural networks. The selection criteria jointly consider the memory efficiency, predictive accuracy, prediction speed, and scalability in comparison to the multidimensional interpolation. Among all the ML techniques, deep neural networks (DNNs) have proven to be the best selection with sufficient accuracy, high robustness, good memory efficiency, great scalability, and superior flexibility. DNNs have been trained for all isotopes in this work and systematic Griffin testing is ongoing to ensure the feasibility of this ROM technique for predicting cross section and reducing memory requirements without a significant sacrifice in computational performance.
42 - ENGINEERING↗
Reduce-Order Modeling of Multigroup Neutron Cross Sections for High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors
Deterministic neutronics calculations rely on multigroup neutron cross section libraries, which usually consists of a database of tabulated values, used to calculate the cross sections through multivariate linear interpolation. However, interpolation of the multidimensional cross section data becomes memory inefficient and time consuming as the number of tabulations increases, significantly slowing down the neutronics calculation, especially in the case of micro cross section libraries where every isotope (on the order of hundreds) has its own set of specific reactions and cross sections. To address this challenge, this work constructs efficient and robust reduced-order models (ROMs) of the multi-group cross sections to support the Griffin simulation of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The first part of the study investigates the linearity of the multi-group cross section data across isotopes, reaction types and energy groups on pre-generated datasets for the purpose of dimensionality reduction. Secondly, a down-selection of ROM techniques is presented on representative classical machine learning (ML) techniques, including variants of linear regression, kernel-based methods, tree-based algorithms, and artificial neural networks. The selection criteria jointly consider the memory efficiency, predictive accuracy, prediction speed, and scalability in comparison to the multidimensional interpolation. Among all the ML techniques, deep neural networks (DNNs) have proven to be the best selection with sufficient accuracy, high robustness, good memory efficiency, great scalability, and superior flexibility. DNNs for have been trained for all isotopes in this work and systematic Griffin testing is ongoing at this moment to ensure the feasibility of this ROM technique for cross section predictions.
42 - ENGINEERING↗
Space diversity performance prediction for earth-satellite paths using radar modeling techniques
Space diversity performance is examined on the basis of radar modeling techniques. Radar-derived joint probability distributions are calculated for determining path attenuation and statistical formulation. The computational aspects of the model are discussed in terms of the data base, determining path length and converting statistics to other path angles. The results are presented in terms of prediction accuracy, predicted joint probability distributions, diversity gain, and the autocorrection function. When compared to other models, this model's rain-derived relative diversity gain shows good agreement.
Goldhirsh, J.↗
Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis
Results from operational OD produced by the NASA Goddard Flight Dynamics Facility for the LRO nominal and extended mission are presented. During the LRO nominal mission, when LRO flew in a low circular orbit, orbit determination requirements were met nearly 100% of the time. When the extended mission began, LRO returned to a more elliptical frozen orbit where gravity and other modeling errors caused numerous violations of mission accuracy requirements. Prediction accuracy is particularly challenged during periods when LRO is in full-Sun. A series of improvements to LRO orbit determination are presented, including implementation of new lunar gravity models, improved spacecraft solar radiation pressure modeling using a dynamic multi-plate area model, a shorter orbit determination arc length, and a constrained plane method for estimation. The analysis presented in this paper shows that updated lunar gravity models improved accuracy in the frozen orbit, and a multiplate dynamic area model improves prediction accuracy during full-Sun orbit periods. Implementation of a 36-hour tracking data arc and plane constraints during edge-on orbit geometry also provide benefits. A comparison of the operational solutions to precision orbit determination solutions shows agreement on a 100- to 250-meter level in definitive accuracy.
Gravitation↗
Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis
LRO definitive and predictive accuracy requirements were easily met in the nominal mission orbit, using the LP150Q lunar gravity model. center dot Accuracy of the LP150Q model is poorer in the extended mission elliptical orbit. center dot Later lunar gravity models, in particular GSFC-GRAIL-270, improve OD accuracy in the extended mission. center dot Implementation of a constrained plane when the orbit is within 45 degrees of the Earth-Moon line improves cross-track accuracy. center dot Prediction accuracy is still challenged during full-Sun periods due to coarse spacecraft area modeling - Implementation of a multi-plate area model with definitive attitude input can eliminate prediction violations. - The FDF is evaluating using analytic and predicted attitude modeling to improve full-Sun prediction accuracy. center dot Comparison of FDF ephemeris file to high-precision ephemeris files provides gross confirmation that overlap compares properly assess orbit accuracy.
Gravitation↗
Accuracy of hourly energy predictions for demand flexibility applications
Decarbonization goals in the United States electricity sector are increasing the levels of renewable energy generation in the electricity supply system, and are driving increased attention to building electrification, which will increase the magnitude and shift the timing of the electricity system peak. These changes are motivating new approaches to coordinate building electricity demand with low-carbon renewable generation, elevating the importance of demand flexibility (DF) in buildings and the need to quantify the temporal impacts of DF. In this paper, we first characterize the hourly predictive accuracy of six commonly used baseline models in an application context of quantifying building-level load shift. Our analysis revealed insights such as hours of the day (afternoons), periods of the week (weekends), and seasons (summer) that were predicted with more accuracy than other time periods. In addition, the analysis showed tendencies toward overprediction or underprediction of load. Secondly, we provide the first published investigation of baseline erosion from repeated dispatch of building load shifting. We observed that as the baseline period is pushed back further from the prediction day, the distribution of errors across baseline model predictions increases, with notable inflection points near the three-week erosion point for two of the three models.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS-3) Range Biases and Momentum Unload Modeling for Terra (EOS-AMI)
The Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) reports its performance in meeting Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) predicted ephemeris accuracy requirements with TDRS-3. The Terra (Earth Observing System AM-1) satellite has 3-sigma TDRS requirements of 75 m for total position accuracy predicted over one day onboard. The study sample includes selected cases over 21 months after Guam Remote Ground Terminal (GRGT) support started in June 1998. For daily solutions with a 1.5-day prediction span, predicted results of the study were below the Terra requirement by at least 12 m. Refined range bias estimation and modeled momentum unloads are needed to meet Terra's requirements for TDRS-3. Maintained at 275 W longitude over the zone of exclusion, TDRS-3 is analyzed separately from other TDRSs because of its unique tracking data. Only the Bilateration Ranging Transponder (BRT) at Alice Springs (ALS), Australia, and the Telemetry, Tracking and Command (TT&C) system at Guam are used for routine operational tracking data for TDRS-3. Simultaneous batch orbit solutions with three TDRSs and either the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) or Terra were done with the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) to periodically refine the TT&C and BRT System (BRTS) range biases. As new biases were determined, significant changes were made in estimating the absolute position. FDF achieved similar results using a sequential filter with all operational TDRSs and four user satellites. Definitive accuracy (3-sigma) is expected to be below 50 m. The White Sands Complex (WSC) performs momentum unloads to maintain three-axis stabilized attitude of TDRSs. The relationship between velocity changes (delta-V) and reaction wheel speed changes was empirically determined for roll/yaw unloads. A theoretical relationship was verified and used for pitch unloads. Modeling both pitch and roll/yaw momentum unloads is necessary to meet the 75-m requirement. Moving the orbit solution epoch an hour before a momentum unload can improve delta-V optimization and prediction accuracy over 1.5 days.
Ward, Douglas T.↗
HAPPA: A Modular Platform for HPC Application Resilience Analysis with LLMs Embedded
High-performance computing (HPC) systems are increasingly vulnerable to soft errors, which pose significant challenges in maintaining computational accuracy and reliability. Predicting the resilience of HPC applications to these errors is crucial for robust code protection and detailed resilience analysis. In this study, we present HAppA, a modular platform designed for HPC Application Resilience Analysis. Embedding Large Language Models (LLMs), HAppA addresses understanding the context information of long code sequences typical in HPC applications. HAppA implements a novel code representation module that chunks the code into fixed-size segments and aggregates the embeddings of these segments. Three aggregation methods have been explored: MeanPooling, MaxPooling, and LSTM-based techniques. We built a DAtaset for REsilience analysis using Fault Injection (FI), named DARE. Using our DARE dataset, HAppA is trained for regression prediction tasks. Our evaluation results demonstrate the predictive accuracy of HAppA compared to other models, particularly noting that the LSTM-based aggregation method -- HAppA-LSTM -- achieves a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.078 for SDC prediction, surpassing the existing state-of-the-art PARIS model, which recorded an MSE of 0.1172. Additionally, HAppA with the KeyBERT model extracts a list of keywords representing the source code. A comprehensive importance analysis of these keywords further elucidates the code patterns contributing to the error rate. These findings highlight the effectiveness of HAppA in analyzing the resilience of HPC applications and establish a new benchmark for predictive accuracy in resilience.
Jiang, Hailong [Kent State University]↗
Anticipating Optical Availability in Hybrid RF/FSO Links Using RF Beacons and Deep Learning
Radiofrequency (RF) communications offer reliable but low data rates and energy-inefficient satellite links, while free-space optical (FSO) promises high bandwidth but struggles with disturbances imposed by atmospheric effects. A hybrid RF/FSO architecture aims to achieve optimal reliability along with high data rates for space communications. Accurate prediction of dynamic ground-to-satellite FSO link availability is critical for routing decisions in low-earth orbit constellations. In this paper, we propose a system leveraging ubiquitous RF links to proactively forecast FSO link degradation prior to signal drops below threshold levels. This enables pre-calculation of rerouting to maximally maintain high data rate FSO links throughout the duration of weather effects. We implement a supervised learning model to anticipate FSO attenuation based on the analysis of RF patterns. Through the simulation of a dense lower earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a simulated satellite network, highlighting the balance between predictive accuracy and prediction duration. An emulated cloud attenuation model is proposed to provide insight into the temporal profiles of RF signals and their correlation to FSO channel dynamics. Our investigation sheds light on the trade-offs between prediction horizon and accuracy arising from RF beacon numbers and proximity.
FSO availability↗
Genomic prediction of hybrid performance for agronomic traits in sorghum
Hybrid breeding in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] utilizes the cytoplasmic-nuclear male sterility (CMS) system for seed production and subsequently harnesses heterosis. Since the cost of developing and evaluating inbred and hybrid lines in the CMS system is costly and time-consuming, genomic prediction of parental lines and hybrids is based on genetic data genotype. We generated 602 hybrids by crossing two female (A) lines with 301 diverse and elite male (R) lines from the sorghum association panel and collected phenotypic data for agronomic traits over two years. We genotyped the inbred parents using whole genome resequencing and used 2,687,342 high quality (minor allele frequency > 2%) single nucleotide polymorphisms for genomic prediction. For grain yield, the experimental hybrids exhibited an average mid-parent heterosis of 40%. Genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) for hybrid performance yielded an average prediction accuracy of 0.76–0.93 under the prediction scenario where both parental lines in validation sets were included in the training sets (T2). However, when only female tester was shared between training and validation sets (T1F), prediction accuracies declined by 12–90%, with plant height showing the greatest decline. Mean accuracies for predicting the general combining ability of male parents ranged from 0.33 to 0.62 for all traits. Our results showed hybrid performance for agronomic traits can be predicted with high accuracy, and optimizing genomic relationship is essential for optimal training population design for genomic selection in sorghum breeding.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Improving FermiI Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment
Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecrafts ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45 improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.
orbit prediction↗
Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment
Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.
orbit prediction↗
Computationally efficient models for aqueous organic redox flow batteries
The rising usage of intermittent energy has garnered the need for large scale energy storage systems. Redox flow batteries (RFB) based energy storage system shows promising potential. Numerical simulations and machine learning approaches have been widely used to study RFB performance. The development of autonomous material discovery framework and digital twin of energy storage system usually needs to query cell performance through fast response models. In this study, two computationally efficient models are introduced: a physics-based analytical flow battery model (EZBattery), and a machine learning operator model (Deep Operator Network, denoted by DeepONet). Both models can provide cell performance near instantly, and prediction accuracy was systematically examined on an application of evaluating the performances of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB), using potential anolyte candidates in dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based family of organic materials. A validated computationally expansive 3-dimensional multi-physics finite element model by COMSOL was used as the ground truth and provided the training data set for the DeepONet. 1280 samples were generated with 10 properties to mimic the different possible anolyte candidates, and the cell performances were evaluated under 10 different combined operating conditions. The accuracy comparisons for the two computationally efficient models show that both models can provide comparable accuracy in predicting cell charging/discharging voltage curves. DeepONet can provide slightly higher overall accuracy than EZBattery with faster calculation speed, but highly relies on the training dataset. EZBattery does not need a training dataset and can provide interpretable physics-based explanations of the results, while being more flexible to adjust to adapt any different cell designs, flow battery architectures, and electrolyte materials.
Analytical model↗
A Finite Element Method for Compressible and Turbulent Multiphase Flow Instabilities with Heat Transfer
We present a new finite element framework for modeling compressible, turbulent multiphase flows with heat transfer. For two-fluid systems with a free surface, the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is implemented without the need for interface reconstruction, while turbulence is resolved using a dynamic Vreman large eddy simulation (LES) model. Unlike most two-phase VOF studies, which neglect heat transfer, the present approach incorporates energy transport equations within the VOF formulation to account for heat exchange, an effect particularly important in turbulent flows. Conjugate heat transfer is often challenging in finite volume methods, which require explicit specification of heat fluxes at the solid–fluid interface, limiting accuracy and predictive capability. By contrast, the finite element formulation does not require heat flux inputs, allowing more accurate and robust simulation of heat transfer between solids and fluids. The method is demonstrated through three representative cases. First, a two-fluid instability with a single-mode perturbation is simulated and validated against analytical growth rates. Second, conjugate heat transfer is examined in a high-temperature flow over a cold metal cylinder, with validation performed both quantitatively—via pressure coefficient comparisons with experimental data—and qualitatively using vector field topology. Finally, compressible spray injection and breakup are modeled, demonstrating the ability of the framework to capture interfacial dynamics and atomization under turbulent, high-speed conditions. In the compressible spray injection and breakup case, the results indicate that the finite element formulation achieved higher predictive accuracy and robustness than the finite-volume method. With the same mesh resolution, the FEM reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) from 6.96 mm and 26.0% (for the FVM) to 4.85 mm and 12.7%, respectively, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness in capturing interfacial dynamics and heat transfer. The study also introduced vector field topology to visualize and interpret coherent flow structures and instabilities, offering insights beyond conventional scalar-field analyses.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Similarity Downselection: Finding the n Most Dissimilar Molecular Conformers for Reference-Free Metabolomics
Computational methods for creating in silico libraries of molecular descriptors (e.g., collision cross sections) are becoming increasingly prevalent due to the limited number of authentic reference materials available for traditional library building. These so-called “reference-free metabolomics” methods require sampling sets of molecular conformers in order to produce high accuracy property predictions. Due to the computational cost of the subsequent calculations for each conformer, there is a need to sample the most relevant subset and avoid repeating calculations on conformers that are nearly identical. The goal of this study is to introduce a heuristic method of finding the most dissimilar conformers from a larger population in order to help speed up reference-free calculation methods and maintain a high property prediction accuracy. Finding the set of the n items most dissimilar from each other out of a larger population becomes increasingly difficult and computationally expensive as either n or the population size grows large. Because there exists a pairwise relationship between each item and all other items in the population, finding the set of the n most dissimilar items is different than simply sorting an array of numbers. For instance, if you have a set of the most dissimilar n = 4 items, one or more of the items from n = 4 might not be in the set n = 5. An exact solution would have to search all possible combinations of size n in the population exhaustively. We present an open-source software called similarity downselection (SDS), written in Python and freely available on GitHub. SDS implements a heuristic algorithm for quickly finding the approximate set(s) of the n most dissimilar items. We benchmark SDS against a Monte Carlo method, which attempts to find the exact solution through repeated random sampling. We show that for SDS to find the set of n most dissimilar conformers, our method is not only orders of magnitude faster, but it is also more accurate than running Monte Carlo for 1,000,000 iterations, each searching for set sizes n = 3–7 out of a population of 50,000. We also benchmark SDS against the exact solution for example small populations, showing that SDS produces a solution close to the exact solution in these instances. Using theoretical approaches, we also demonstrate the constraints of the greedy algorithm and its efficacy as a ratio to the exact solution.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Adaptive Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Climbing Flights
Aircraft climb trajectories are difficult to predict, and large errors in these predictions reduce the potential operational benefits of some advanced features for NextGen. The algorithm described in this paper improves climb trajectory prediction accuracy by adjusting trajectory predictions based on observed track data. It utilizes rate-of-climb and airspeed measurements derived from position data to dynamically adjust the aircraft weight modeled for trajectory predictions. In simulations with weight uncertainty, the algorithm is able to adapt to within 3 percent of the actual gross weight within two minutes of the initial adaptation. The root-mean-square of altitude errors for five-minute predictions was reduced by 73 percent. Conflict detection performance also improved, with a 15 percent reduction in missed alerts and a 10 percent reduction in false alerts. In a simulation with climb speed capture intent and weight uncertainty, the algorithm improved climb trajectory prediction accuracy by up to 30 percent and conflict detection performance, reducing missed and false alerts by up to 10 percent.
Seperation Assurance↗