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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Russell, Carl↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of Adverse Events in Time Series Data Using ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox)

Abstract:An open-source toolbox called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox) that operates from within the Matlab programming environment is introduced. The toolbox provides an open source, special-purpose functionality that can be used specifically for the prediction or forecasting of adverse events in time series data. It also provides a single, unifying framework in which to compare a variety of combinations of algorithmic approaches addressing this problem. The architectural framework also offers the flexibility for expansion to accommodate the newest, latest popular regression and detection methods for this particular problem, enabling the development of an infrastructure that can act as a proving ground platform for comparing new techniques to the state of the art. As such, its intention is to act as a catalyst in advancing the state of the art in technologies related to this problem. There are a variety of other toolboxes that offer similar capabilities and features, however they are either more suitable as general purpose machine learning toolboxes or are only available commercially or through agreements. ACCEPT fills that niche by offering visibility into a specific approach for addressing the adverse event prediction problem.

programming environments↗
NASA NTRS1975

Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 2: Phase 2 subsize panel cyclic creep predictions

A method for predicting permanent cyclic creep deflections in stiffened panel structures was developed. The resulting computer program may be applied to either the time-hardening or strain-hardening theories of creep accumulation. Iterative techniques were used to determine structural rotations, creep strains, and stresses as a function of time. Deflections were determined by numerical integration of structural rotations along the panel length. The analytical approach was developed for analyzing thin-gage entry vehicle metallic-thermal-protection system panels subjected to cyclic bending loads at high temperatures, but may be applied to any panel subjected to bending loads. Predicted panel creep deflections were compared with results from cyclic tests of subsize corrugation and rib-stiffened panels. Empirical equations were developed for each material based on correlation with tensile cyclic creep data and both the subsize panels and tensile specimens were fabricated from the same sheet material. For Vol. 1, see N75-21431.

Cramer, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Observations and theory of Mg II lines in early type stars. II - Theory and predicted profiles. III - The observations and a comparison with the predictions

Profiles of the UV Mg II lines in the spectra of early type stars are computed in a grid of model atmospheres with effective temperatures between 8000 and 35,000 K and log g values of 2.5 to 4.0 using the LTE and non-LTE theories of line formation. The theoretical results indicate that the line cores are strengthened by non-LTE effects over the entire temperature range, resonance-line wings are weaker in the cooler models than in the LTE case, and very large deviations from LTE occur in the hot low-gravity models. These predictions are compared with the equivalent widths of the UV Mg II lines in 106 stars and of the visual lines in 48 stars (spectral types O4 to A3). The observed equivalent widths of normal stars in luminosity classes II through V are found to agree with the predictions over the entire range from O8 to A2 if a certain Mg/H abundance is adopted. The line intensities observed in supergiants, Be, Bp, and Ap stars are discussed.

Snijders, M. A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar-terrestrial Predictions Proceedings. Volume 1: Prediction Group Reports

The current practice in solar terrestrial predictions is reviewed with emphasis of prediction, warning, and monitoring services. Topics covered include: ionosphere-reflected HF radio propagation; radiation hazards for manned space flights and high altitude and high latitude aircraft flights; and geomagnetic activity.

Donnelly, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Noise produced by turbulent flow into a rotor: Theory manual for atmospheric turbulence prediction and mean flow and turbulence contraction prediction

Prediction of helicopter main rotor noise due to ingestion of atmospheric turbulence was analyzed. The analysis combines several different models that describe the fluid mechanics of the turbulence and the ingestion process. Two models, atmospheric turbulence, and mean flow and turbulence contraction were covered. The third model, covered in a separate report, describes the rotor acoustic mode. The method incorporates the atmospheric turbulence model and a rapid distortion turbulence contraction description to determine the statistics of the anisotropic turbulence at the rotor plane. The analytical basis for a module was provided which was incorporated in NASA's ROTONET helicopter noise prediction program. The mean flow and turbulence statistics associated with the atmospheric boundary layer were modeled including effects of atmospheric stability length, wind speed, and altitude. The turbulence distortion process is modeled as a deformation of vortex filaments (which represent the turbulence field) by a mean flow field due to the rotor inflow.

Simonich, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Perpendicular blade vortex interaction and its implications for helicopter noise prediction: Wave-number frequency spectra in a trailing vortex for BWI noise prediction

Perpendicular blade vortex interactions are a common occurrence in helicopter rotor flows. Under certain conditions they produce a substantial proportion of the acoustic noise. However, the mechanism of noise generation is not well understood. Specifically, turbulence associated with the trailing vortices shed from the blade tips appears insufficient to account for the noise generated. The hypothesis that the first perpendicular interaction experienced by a trailing vortex alters its turbulence structure in such a way as to increase the acoustic noise generated by subsequent interactions is examined. To investigate this hypothesis a two-part investigation was carried out. In the first part, experiments were performed to examine the behavior of a streamwise vortex as it passed over and downstream of a spanwise blade in incompressible flow. Blade vortex separations between +/- one eighth chord were studied for at a chord Reynolds number of 200,000. Three-component velocity and turbulence measurements were made in the flow from 4 chord lengths upstream to 15 chordlengths downstream of the blade using miniature 4-sensor hot wire probes. These measurements show that the interaction of the vortex with the blade and its wake causes the vortex core to loose circulation and diffuse much more rapidly than it otherwise would. Core radius increases and peak tangential velocity decreases with distance downstream of the blade. True turbulence levels within the core are much larger downstream than upstream of the blade. The net result is a much larger and more intense region of turbulent flow than that presented by the original vortex and thus, by implication, a greater potential for generating acoustic noise. In the second part, the turbulence measurements described above were used to derive the necessary inputs to a Blade Wake Interaction (BWI) noise prediction scheme. This resulted in significantly improved agreement between measurements and calculations of the BWI noise spectrum especially for the spectral peak at low frequencies, which previously was poorly predicted.

Devenport, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Predictive and Neural Predictive Control of Uncertain Systems

Accomplishments and future work are:(1) Stability analysis: the work completed includes characterization of stability of receding horizon-based MPC in the setting of LQ paradigm. The current work-in-progress includes analyzing local as well as global stability of the closed-loop system under various nonlinearities; for example, actuator nonlinearities; sensor nonlinearities, and other plant nonlinearities. Actuator nonlinearities include three major types of nonlineaxities: saturation, dead-zone, and (0, 00) sector. (2) Robustness analysis: It is shown that receding horizon parameters such as input and output horizon lengths have direct effect on the robustness of the system. (3) Code development: A matlab code has been developed which can simulate various MPC formulations. The current effort is to generalize the code to include ability to handle all plant types and all MPC types. (4) Improved predictor: It is shown that MPC design using better predictors that can minimize prediction errors. It is shown analytically and numerically that Smith predictor can provide closed-loop stability under GPC operation for plants with dead times where standard optimal predictor fails. (5) Neural network predictors: When neural network is used as predictor it can be shown that neural network predicts the plant output within some finite error bound under certain conditions. Our preliminary study shows that with proper choice of update laws and network architectures such bound can be obtained. However, much work needs to be done to obtain a similar result in general case.

Kelkar, Atul G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Impact of Land Initialization and Assimilation on Climate Predictability and Prediction

Analysis will be presented which explores the impact of land conditions on monthly to seasonal climate simulations in a variety of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In one set of experiments, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GDFL) AGCM is used to explore the nature of soil-moisture predictability and associated climate predictability as an initial value problem. For another set of experiments, the Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere (COLA) and the Goddard Earth Observing System 2 (GEOS-2) AGCMs are used to investigate the impact of realistic snow initialization and assimilation in retrospective climate forecasts for the northern hemisphere spring (March-June).

Schlosser, C. Adam↗
NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Koster, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flutter Prediction Report in Support of the High Angle Working Group at the Third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

This paper presents a summary of the computational flutter results associated with the AIAA third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop (AePW-3) High Angle Working Group (HAWG). The computational results are compared against the experimental data collected during the Pitch and Plunge Apparatus (PAPA) Benchmark Supercritical Wing (BSCW) test campaign conducted in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) at NASA Langley Research Center thirty years ago. During that test several flutter points were identified at transonic conditions. One of these points, specifically near Mach 0.8 and 5° angle of attack, became a focal point of the computational challenge with in HAWG. Various fidelity time-domain, Reduced Order Model (ROM) and Linearized Frequency Domain (LFD) methods were used by seven participating teams. While there are encouraging trends in the computational results, the range of the predicted flutter dynamic pressure is still quite large due to the stall flutter mechanism. A description of each participating team’s software and methods is included.

Pawel Chwalowski↗
NASA NTRS1974

Correlation of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft : Phase 2: Wind tunnel tests, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 2: Wind tunnel test and basic data

A research program has been conducted to determine the degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. Information is presented on the wind tunnel test program and basic aerodynamic data on the C-141A wind-tunnel model used in the correlation studies.

Macwilkinson, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A method for predicting full scale buffet response with rigid wind tunnel model fluctuating pressure data. Volume 1: Prediction method development and assessment

The method requires unsteady aerodynamic forces, natural airplane modes, and the measured pressure data as input. A gust response computer program is used to calculate buffet response due to the forcing function posed by the measured pressure data. By calculating both symmetric and antisymmetric solutions, upper and lower bounds on full-scale buffet response are formed. Comparisons of predictions with flight test results are made and the effects of horizontal tail loads and static aeroelasticity are shown. Discussions are also presented on the effects of primary wing torsion modes, chordwise and spanwise phase angles, and altitude.

Cunningham, A. M., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Automated Predictive Diagnosis (APD): A 3-tiered shell for building expert systems for automated predictions and decision making

The APD software features include: On-line help, Three level architecture, (Logic environments, Setup/Application environment, Data environment), Explanation capability, and File handling. The kinds of experimentation and record keeping that leads to effective expert systems is facilitated by: (1) a library of inferencing modules (in the logic environment); (2) an explanation capability which reveals logic strategies to users; (3) automated file naming conventions; (4) an information retrieval system; and (5) on-line help. These aid with effective use of knowledge, debugging and experimentation. Since the APD software anticipates the logical rules becoming complicated, it is embedded in a production system language (CLIPS) to insure the full power of the production system paradigm of CLIPS and availability of the procedural language C. The development is discussed of the APD software and three example applications: toy, experimental, and operational prototype for submarine maintenance predictions.

Steib, Michael↗