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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Climate models project increasing precipitation in the US Southwest in 2024–2100

We analyzed the measured precipitation in the southwestern US and found that, from 1900 to 2024, precipitation decreased at an average rate of − 1.2 cm per year per 100 years. The most significant precipitation decreases occurred in the three-month period from February to April. At the same time, precipitation during the southwestern monsoon season (July, August, and September) remained relatively stable. The ensemble mean of all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models, along with the regression model incorporating anthropogenic aerosol (AER) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as predictors, projects precipitation to increase from 2024 to 2100. This projected precipitation increase relies on the anticipated decrease in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, which is associated with the transition from fossil fuel burning to renewable and nuclear energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selectivity of tris complexation for Ni(II), Co(II), and Fe(II) and its effect on carbonate precipitation under alkaline conditions

Simultaneous critical element recovery and ex-situ carbon mineralization of low-grade ultramafic deposits have garnered increasing interest. Understanding the selectivity of metal complexing organic ligands for various divalent metals present in ultramafic rocks during carbonate mineralization is required to optimize this process. Here we evaluate 2-amino-2-(hydroxymethyl)-1,3-propanediol (i.e., Tris) as a model for bidentate ligands that bind divalent metals with both amine and alcohol groups in alkaline conditions (pH 8–10.5) at 25 °C and 80 °C in carbonate-buffered solutions. Protonated Tris forms a stronger complex with metal ions and is selective for trace metals with Ni(II) > Co(II) > Fe(II) during carbonate precipitation, with the rates decreasing but selectivity increasing at lower temperature and lower pH. At 25 °C, metastable amorphous hydrated carbonates form, regardless of the amount of Tris present or pH values. At 80 °C and pH 8, the Co and Fe carbonates that form are a mixture of rosasite-group minerals (Co 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 (H 2 O) and Fe 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 ) and pure carbonates (sphaerocobaltite: CoCO 3 and siderite: FeCO 3 ), with the latter more stabilized with increasing Tris concentration. In mixed metal solutions without Tris at 25 °C where Fe:Ni or Fe:Co is 2:1, Fe increases the rates of Ni or Co carbonate precipitation. However, with increasing Tris concentration the presence of Ni or Co inhibits Fe carbonate precipitation. At 80 °C without Tris, Ni or Co substitute into the iron chukanovite (Fe 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 ) lattice, increasing Ni or Co carbonate precipitation rates. Increasing Tris concentration only slightly inhibits Fe and Co precipitation, but slows Ni precipitation up to 10 times, with Fe progressively partitioning into more pure carbonate phases with distinct crystalline morphologies. These findings suggest bidentate amine-bearing ligands may be effective at Ni and Co recovery during carbon mineralization of Fe-bearing ultramafic deposits at relatively low temperatures and slightly alkaline pH.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Rocky Mountains and Tibetan Plateau 1998 Spring Land Temperature on N. American and East Asian Summer Precipitation Anomalies

This work follows up on the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiments, a community effort highlighting the spring land surface temperature anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a useful source for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of summer precipitation in global hot spot regions, particularly in East Asia and North America. This paper extends the investigation to both the US Rocky Mountain (RM) region and the TP, considering the 1998 summer drought/flood event in North America/East Asia, respectively, as a case study. A previously developed initialization method for land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) is used in the NCEP Global Forecast System, coupled with a land model, SSiB2 (GFS/SSiB2), to produce observed RM cold May temperature anomaly. Forward simulation yields June precipitation anomalies at five remote locations. Likewise, the TP warm May temperature anomaly also produces June precipitation anomalies at these five locations. The effects of RM (cold) and TP (warm) temperature anomalies are consistent in the US South Coastal regions and the south Yangtze River Basin, yielding 49% (42%) of observed drought and 34% (44%) of observed flood, respectively. These LST/SUBT effects in RM and TP induce a global large-scale wave train linking North America with the TP, affecting the subtropical westerly jet and thereby modulating summer precipitation. Global SST effect is examined for comparison but does not yield statistically significant June precipitation anomalies in GFS/SSiB2. Furthermore, this study adds to evidence that high-mountain LST effects in the RM and TP are first-order sources of S2S precipitation predictability in summer months.

Nayak, Hara Prasad [University of California, Los ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compound Mesoscale Convective Systems and Low‐Pressure Systems in Tropical Monsoon Regions: Assessing Their Meteorology and Precipitation

Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and low-pressure systems (LPS) are both strongly associated with precipitation across the regions where they occur, particularly within global monsoon systems; however, their co-occurrence and its relationship to precipitation have not been systematically examined. Here, we use LPS and MCS trackers to detect compound MCS and LPS events in five monsoon regions and assess the association of this co-occurrence with anomalies of winds, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables. Additionally, we investigate the spatial distribution of precipitating MCS and LPS events. Our results show that most (∼60%) MCS and LPS co-occurrences are located in the lower latitudes, where they contribute up to 40% of annual precipitation. We find that compound events generally produce more extreme precipitation than MCS-only or LPS-only events. Furthermore, our assessment of the synoptic and mesoscale composites reveals that the underlying dynamics of compound events exhibit anomalously positive convective available potential energy and an anomalously low-pressure within the location of the event. In terms of the synoptic environment of the features, the compound MCS and LPS events are associated with inverted troughs in three out of five monsoon locations assessed.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dual-precipitates enhance fatigue resistance in an additively manufactured high-entropy alloy

To accomplish the intense desire of high-strength materials for enhanced energy-efficiency, recent research applies a combined strategy of additive-manufacturing and precipitation-strengthening in high entropy alloys. In a context, Al 0.2 Co 1.5 CrFeNi 1.5 Ti 0.3 nanoprecipitation-strengthened system was developed, demonstrating very convincing strength and toughness. Moreover, additive-manufacturing facilitated additional strength by well-decorated cell-boundaries with blocky L2 1 precipitates and homogeneously distributed L1 2 precipitates. However, fatigue research of this alloy remained unexplored despite being the main precursor for structural applications. In this study low-cycle fatigue behavior of this alloy in both as-built and precipitation-strengthened (aged) conditions has been explored, combined with in-situ neutron diffraction investigation. Findings revealed a substantial cyclic-stress profile and a notable fatigue-life below ±0.50% strain-amplitude, exceeding 10 5 cycles at ±0.30% strain-amplitude. These demonstrate the potential to carry higher payloads with marked engineering-reliability. Residual-stress estimation revealed strain-compatibility between the matrix and L1 2 precipitate, indicating a crack-initiation immune interface. A comparative examination of dislocation character revealed shifting towards pure edge-character in aged alloy indicates precipitates promoted planar-slip during deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamics and kinetics of core-shell versus appendage co-precipitation morphologies

What determines precipitate morphologies in co-precipitating alloy systems? We focus on alloys of two precipitating phases, with the fast-precipitating phase acting as heterogeneous nucleation sites for a second phase manifesting slower kinetics. Kinetic lattice Monte Carlo simulations show that the interplay between interfacial and ordering energies, plus active diffusion paths, strongly affect the selection of core-shell verses appendage morphologies. We study a FeCuMnNiSi alloy using the combination of atom probe tomography and simulations, and show that the ordering energy reduction of the MnNiSi phase heterogeneously nucleated on a pre-existing copper-rich precipitate exceeds the energy penalty of a predominantly Fe/Cu interface, leading to initial appendage, rather than core-shell, formation. Diffusion of Mn, Ni and Si around and through the Cu core towards the ordered phase results in subsequent appendage growth. We further show that in cases with higher primary precipitate interface energies and/or suppressed ordering, the coreshell morphology is favored.

Shu, Shipeng↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” (v3)

This data package is associated with the publication “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Butler et al. 2025). This study developed the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework to tag input precipitation and estimate water transit times and hydrologic tracers. SPIT tags all precipitation events at regular intervals over an extended period (monthly tags over seven years) in a hydrologic model from 2016-2022. SPIT is applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites across the continental United States to calculate transit time distributions (TTD) and derive from these mean transit times (MTT), fractions of young water (Fyw), and hydrologic tracer concentrations in stream water (δ18O) within a water-tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WT-WRF-Hydro) model with national water model (NWM) configurations. We go on to validate WT-WRF-Hydro estimates against Butler et al. (2023), who analyzed the same NEON sites using stable water isotope data to estimate water transit times. This new tracking method provides a detailed picture of water movement and helps improve predictions about water availability in the future. This data package was originally published in January 2025. It was updated May 2025 (v2; new and modified files) and October 2025 (v3; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains the data and scripts used to develop the SPIT framework WT-WRF-Hydro (Water Tagging Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic) model and is associated with the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/zbutler33/SPIT-Framework. This data package contains five parent folders: (1) “Manipulated_outputs”, (2) “Metadata”, (3) “Observed”, (4) “Outputs”, and (5) “Scripts”. Each of these parent folders contains additional subfolders and files. Please see the FLMD (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_flmd.csv”) for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. See the data dictionary (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_dd.csv”) for definitions and units of all of the tabular (files ending in “.csv” and ".tsv") column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MX precipitate behavior in an irradiated advanced Fe-9Cr steel: Self-ion irradiation effects on phase stability

In an effort to optimize Fe-9Cr reduced activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) steels and to inform the design and operation of fusion reactors, this work represents the first in a series of cohesive studies dedicated to the evolution of MX-TiC precipitates under accelerated single and dual ion irradiations. This study investigates CNA9, a simplified Fe-9Cr RAFM steel featuring initial MX-TiC precipitate densities of (2.3±0.3)×10²¹ m⁻³. This material was subjected to single self-ion irradiation at damage levels ranging from 1 to 100 displacements per atom (dpa) over a temperature range of 300 to 600°C, with a nominal dose rate of 7×10⁻⁴ dpa/s. Irradiation-induced coarsening was observed, as evidenced by statistically significant increases in mean diameter sizes, at 15 dpa at both 500°C and 600°C, whereas no coarsening was noted at 300°C or 400°C. Further, complete dissolution of precipitates occurred at damage levels of 50 and 100 dpa across the two temperatures tested (300°C and 500°C) while no significant changes were observed at any doses below 15 dpa at 500°C. Experimentally parameterized recoil resolution modeling suggests that the observed radiation stability of MX-TiC precipitates is intricately linked to diffusional changes of solutes resulting from the co-evolution of microstructural features within the experiments. The findings align with current theoretical perspectives on radiation-induced precipitate stability in complex alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of stress on Laves phase precipitation in creep ruptured Grade 92 ferritic martensitic steel characterized by a novel accessible method

At high temperature conditions relevant to fossil and nuclear energy plants, Laves phase (Fe 2 X, X=Mo, W) precipitation is observed in common ferritic martensitic (FM) structural steels, with various reported effects on creep behavior. Despite being valuable metrics to correlate with mechanical properties and other precipitate phases, the volume fraction and number density of Laves phase precipitates has been difficult to quantify accurately using common techniques such as transmission electron microscopy (TEM) due to the relatively large size (∼0.25 μm) and low number density (∼10 11 cm −3 ) of Laves precipitates. Here, to address this characterization challenge, we developed and demonstrated a high-throughput and widely accessible method to quantify the volume fraction and number density of the Laves phase based on scanning electron microscope (SEM) images with a backscattered electron signal and the information depth (ID) of backscattered electrons. We applied this new technique in creep ruptured Grade 92 FM steel to study the effect of Laves phase on creep properties and determine the influence of stress on Laves phase precipitation. The quantitative accuracy of the SEM-based volume fraction and number density values was verified using synchrotron high energy X-ray diffraction and serial sectioning tomography. Stress did not significantly affect the Laves phase size or volume fraction during creep testing at 550 – 650°C and stress levels of 90 – 260 MPa (vs. unstressed conditions). Conversely, a moderate but statistically significant stress-enhanced increase in Laves phase number density, corresponding to an increase in nucleation rate, occurred during creep exposure above 110 MPa.

Creep↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Sn microalloying on the nucleation of L1 2 Al 3 Zr precipitates in a dilute aluminum-zirconium alloy

While L1 2 -Al 3 Zr nanoprecipitates provide a balance between strengthening and good electrical conductivity, the precipitation of L1 2 -Al 3 Zr in aluminum requires aggressive heat treatments. An improved age-hardening response was observed during isochronal aging of an Al-0.24Zr (wt%) alloy when microalloyed with Sn. A new mechanism termed Low melting point Element-Assisted Nucleation (LEAN) is proposed to explain the lower temperature nucleation of L1 2 -Al 3 Zr precipitates observed in this alloy based on the addition of a low melting point element, such as Sn. Characterization verified the first-principles density functional theory prediction that Zr and Sn atoms cluster during homogenization owing to the favorable binding energy of Zr-Sn-vacancy triplets. Direct microstructural observations revealed these clusters form Sn nanoprecipitates that assist the nucleation of L1 2 -Al 3 Zr at 200°C, where L1 2 -Al 3 Zr precipitation is not expected due to the low diffusivity of Zr atoms in Al. At higher temperatures (≳350°C), the acceleration of L1 2 -Al 3 Zr precipitation is driven by faster Zr diffusion in Al with Sn microalloying and the nuclei formed via the LEAN mechanism. In conclusion, this combination of mechanisms explains the improvement in age hardening through L1 2 -Al 3 Zr precipitation with Sn microalloying.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

In situ self-ion (Fe + ) irradiation of ODS-FeCrAl alloy fuel cladding materials with different Cr contents: The early stages of Cr-rich α’ phase precipitation

Oxide-dispersion-strengthened FeCrAl (ODS-FeCrAl) alloys are candidate accident-tolerant fuel cladding materials for light water reactors because they demonstrate satisfactory resistance to materials degradation effects such as high-temperature oxidation, radiation-induced swelling, and creep. Their perspective deployment to market is challenged, however, by their inherent susceptibility to irradiation embrittlement caused by the precipitation of the brittle Cr-rich α’ phase at relatively low temperatures (≤475 °C). This work used in situ self-ion irradiation (150 keV Fe + ) in a transmission electron microscope to elucidate the early stages of Cr-rich α’ phase precipitation in three candidate ODS-FeCrAl alloy fuel cladding materials with different Cr contents (10, 12, and 20 wt.%) and microstructures. The early stages of the process resulting in the precipitation of the Cr-rich α’ phase in these three ODS-FeCrAl alloys under Fe + irradiation were investigated at room temperature and 300 °C up to total fluences of 1.7 × 10 15 ions·cm -2 (2 dpa) and 3.4 × 10 15 ions·cm -2 (4 dpa), using three damage dose rates (5 × 10 –5 , 3.3 × 10 –4 , and 2 × 10 –3 dpa·s -1 ). Post-irradiation examination via scanning transmission electron microscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy suggested that the precipitation of the Cr-rich α’ phase might be promoted by the phase separation of the alloy matrix into Cr-rich and Fe-rich regions. Interestingly, oxygen impurities segregated preferentially in the Cr-rich regions, possibly promoting the radiation-assisted formation of the Cr-rich α’ phase. α’ phase precipitation was more pronounced at room temperature when compared to 300 °C, and it was clearly promoted by the progressive increase in the Cr content of the ODS-FeCrAl alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

MX precipitate behavior in an irradiated advanced Fe-9Cr steel: Helium sequestration and cavity swelling performance

This work is the third and final part in an initial series on addressing the behavior of MX precipitate stability in an advanced Fe-9Cr reduced activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) alloy under fusion-relevant ion irradiation conditions. Here, the helium trapping properties of MX precipitates are investigated across varying damage levels (15–100 dpa), temperatures (400–600 °C), and helium doses (10–25 appm He/dpa) using sophisticated dual ion beam experiments and electron microscopy. Results indicate that individual MX precipitates efficiently sequester helium in the form of nanoscale bubbles at the precipitate-matrix interfaces near the peak swelling temperature (∼5 bubbles/precipitate at 500 °C). Swelling was primarily due to matrix cavities. The Fe-9Cr alloy reached 2% swelling by 100 dpa, suggesting a shift to steady-state swelling around 50 dpa at 500 °C. Furthermore, MX precipitate dissolution beginning at 15 dpa did not coincide with this onset of steady-state swelling.

Dual ion irradiation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microstructural evolution, defect mitigation, and precipitation behavior in AA6061 via laser powder bed fusion with high-temperature substrate heating

Defects, particularly solidification cracking, remain persistent challenges in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) processing of AA6061 aluminum alloy. This study systematically investigates defect mitigation, microstructural evolution, and mechanical properties associated with high-temperature substrate preheating at 500 °C. Comprehensive microstructural analyses, including characterization of defects, grain structures, and precipitation behavior, were performed on samples in both as-built and T6 heat-treated states. Elevated preheating substantially reduced solidification cracking across a wide processing window, while demonstrating decreased crack sensitivity to laser parameters. Columnar cracks along the build direction were observed despite substrate preheating. Lack-of-fusion and keyhole porosity were effectively eliminated, though gas-induced microporosity persisted at higher powers. In-depth characterization of two distinct laser power and speed conditions confirmed the formation of micron-sized, non-coherent Mg 2 Si precipitates under heated substrate conditions, alongside α-AlFeCrMnSi intermetallic phases indicative of in-situ thermal effects during fabrication. Subsequent T6 heat treatment revealed the formation of fine, coherent needle-shaped β″ strengthening precipitates. Despite substantial differences in processing parameters, comparable mechanical properties were measured in the as-built samples (∼52 MPa yield strength, ∼130 MPa tensile strength), primarily due to reduced strain hardening effects and consistent precipitation characteristics. Meanwhile, the T6 heat treatment led to significant improvement in properties, enhancing yield strength by over 400%, aligning closely with the performance of conventional wrought AA6061-T6. These findings underscore that high-temperature substrate preheating offers an effective means to suppress cracks, control precipitation, and enhance mechanical performance in LPBF-processed AA6061.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-omic characterization of a soil microbial consortium reveals critical role of succinate and glutamate metabolism during calcium carbonate precipitation

Microbially induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) holds potential for use in soil stabilization and carbon sequestration, with the overall efficiency of the process being a major determinant for use in many environmental and civil engineering applications. While the biogeochemical pathways and enzymes driving MICP are known, the microbial metabolic networks and community dynamics underlying such precipitation remain poorly characterized. To address this gap, we developed a four-member consortium of soil bacteria (Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens, Rhodococcus qingshengii, Microbacterium sp., and Bacillus toyonensis), termed carbon storing consortium - A (CSC-A), that is capable of MICP. Prior work shows that MICP production is higher in CSC-A compared to the sum of carbonate produced by each member, suggesting carbonate production is driven by consortium dynamics. To that end we used a multi-omic integration approach of genomics, transcriptomics, and metabolomics to investigate potential inter-species interactions that may influence the MICP phenotype. Genomic life history characterizations identified evidence of niche specialization by B. toyonensis and Microbacterium, while metatranscriptomic analysis suggests R. qingshengii is a keystone species during growth in urea. By comparing individual species’ metabolomes to the metabolic profile of a shared well of precipitated metabolites, we identified over 200 metabolites predicted to be produced or consumed by CSC-A members. Integrating both data types to search the KEGG reactome highlighted a network centered around glutamine metabolism and branched chain amino acid biosynthesis under regulation during CSC-A growth in urea. Succinate metabolism was also a major node in this network and laboratory assays confirmed that increasing the amount of succinate in the growth medium leads to increased carbonate precipitation by CSC-A, a critical confirmation of our modeling approach. By isolating and identifying the interconnected metabolic components underlying MICP in CSC-A, we identified keystone taxa, metabolites, and pathways important for future optimization of the application of this consortia to carbonate precipitation.

carbon storing consortium - A (CSC-A)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water Stable Isotopes in Precipitation, Rivers, and Groundwater Across an Elevation Gradient in the Sierra Nevada Mountains (USA) Reflect Source Elevation

Understanding watershed processes is critical to predict the impacts of climate change and forest management on water resources. However, collecting hydrological data in mountainous terrain is challenging. Precipitation, river water, and groundwater H and O stable isotope data can provide insights into processes occurring at the mountain range scale. Water δ 2 H and δ 18 O values in precipitation vary with terrain elevation; thus, the resulting isotopic lapse rates of precipitation, groundwater, and river water have the potential to elucidate watershed processes and source elevations of major rivers. We analysed H and O stable isotope data of precipitation, groundwater, and river water over the course of one Water Year (Oct 2016—Oct 2017) in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA. We calculated elevation-dependent isotopic lapse rates of these waters to estimate the source elevation of major rivers draining the west flank of the Sierra Nevada mountains. We also investigated the Cosumnes River's watershed in more detail to determine how river flow may be more fully partitioned. Here, we found that H and O stable isotopes in precipitation are temporally variable, but isotopic lapse rates are generally consistent with prior studies. However, groundwater samples across an elevation gradient provide a more consistent and accessible isotopic lapse rate to predict river water source elevations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of γ′/γ″ compact and sandwich type precipitates during long-term high-temperature exposure in Ni-based superalloys

Here, the formation of γ′/γ″ co-precipitates is investigated in Ni-based superalloys with a varying Ti/Al ratio and Ta content and their stability is studied using long-term high-temperature exposure. Transmission electron microscopy and atom probe tomography analyses demonstrate that both higher Ti/Al ratios and increased Ta promote γ″ phase formation, leading to sandwich and compact structures. The compact co-precipitation significantly reduces γ′ precipitate coarsening during 10,000 h exposure at 700°C by restricting elemental diffusion, particularly of aluminum, from the γ matrix to the γ′ phase. For the alloy without a compact structure, and only γʹ precipitates, at the beginning of the exposure, the coarsening rate over 10,000 h was 3.5 times faster than for the alloy with compact γʹ/γʺ precipitates. Evidence of destabilization of the compact morphology was found to occur between 5,000 and 10,000 h exposure and originated from the extensive formation and growth of δ platelets that extended throughout the grains. Thus, the outer layer of the compact, which consists of γʺ, was subjected to the γ″ to δ phase transformation.

gamma double prime↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms Behind the Long‐Distance Diurnal Offshore Precipitation Propagation in Northwestern South America

Abstract Northwestern South America (NWSA) is the rainiest region on Earth, with diurnal precipitation exhibiting extensive westward offshore propagation of up to about 1,200 km in boreal spring (March‐May). The diurnal offshore precipitation propagation begins slowly (3–10 m s −1 ) near the coast of NWSA (<200 km) but accelerates significantly (∼20 m s −1 ) and shows an afternoon enhancement far from the coast (>400 km). However, the driving mechanisms behind this long‐distance precipitation propagation remain unclear. Using a new cloud tracking and classification data set, we found that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant precipitation contributors in the offshore region of NWSA. Cloud tracking shows that the long‐distance propagation and the afternoon enhancement of diurnal precipitation primarily originate from MCSs initiated in the early morning, either over open oceans or from the coast of Central America. Composite tendency analysis shows that MCSs initiated near the coast of Central America have significant upward cooling and moistening signals starting from the surface before initiation. Further analysis of surface diurnal perturbation fields indicates that the land breeze is the primary driving mechanism for MCS initiation. Conversely, for MCSs initiated over open oceans, a significant downward cooling signal from 400 hPa is observed ∼7 hr before initiation, corresponding to the passage of diurnal gravity waves emitted from the Andes. Additionally, our findings highlight the critical role of lower and mid‐level moisture conditions in MCS initiation, alongside the influence of gravity waves.

Hu, Jingyi [Department of Meteorology and Atmosphe↗