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DOE OSTI2025

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity

This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select fossil energy power systems—pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants—using a systematic, transparent, technical, and economic approach. This is Volume 1 of the baseline series: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity. The cost and performance of fossil fuel‐based generation technologies represented in this report are important inputs to assessments and determinations of technology combinations to be utilized to meet the projected demands of future power markets. From a research and development perspective, this report is used to assess goals and metrics and to provide a consistent basis for comparing developing technologies. The main report consists of fifteen power plant configurations, six PC cases (with and without carbon capture) nine NGCC cases (with and without carbon capture) and few additional cases of higher capture rate, for both PC and NGCC plants in the appendix. In addition to the report, an interactive tool was developed that allows users to manipulate six key study parameters simultaneously for each case and visualize the impact on three metrics: 1) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), 2) cost of CO 2 capture (CCC), and 3) cost of CO 2 avoided (CCA). Following is the link to the interactive tool: https://netl.doe.gov/NETLVol1BaselineTool

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

ICE Calculator 2.0: Final Report for Phase 1 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE 2.0 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE 2.0 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 of the ICE 2.0 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 1 involved 11 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 24 electricity distribution service territories, 23 of them located in the Eastern and Midwestern regions of the U.S. and one located in the Pacific Northwest. ICE 2.0 vs. 1.0 Comparison This memorandum compares customer power interruption costs estimated using the recently updated Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator (“ICE 2.0”) to the original ICE Calculator (“ICE 1.0”). ICE 1.0 was developed in 2009 based on 15 independent power interruption cost surveys conducted by 10 electric utilities between 1989 and 2012. ICE 2.0 was developed in 2025 through a national initiative based on a consistent set of power interruption cost surveys and 11 surveying efforts conducted across 24 electric utility service territories between 2022 and 2024.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Organic, Direct Bonded Copper, Multi-Layered, Ultra-Low Inductance Package for High-Power UWBG MOSFETs

The most common metalized substrates used in high-power switching packages consist of a ceramic layer such as Aluminum Nitride (AlN) sandwiched between two copper layers. Ceramic substrates are used because it has the key characteristic of having high dielectric strength while being thermally conductive. A large drawback to ceramic substrates is that they do not allow for a multi-layered circuit design. By replacing the traditional ceramic substrate with organic direct bonded copper (ODBC) we can open a wide range of possibilities when it comes to power module layout such as multi-layered circuits and double-sided cooling. Both benefits are critical while packaging high-performance Gallium Oxide (Ga2O3) MOSFETs. Because of Ga2O3's relatively poor thermal conductivity, a double-sided cooled package becomes necessary. Therefore, the use of ODBC provides the flexibility to fabricate copper traces carrying much higher currents, and by creating a multi-layered package, we can drastically reduce the parasitic inductance inside the power module. Achieving lower parasitic inductance is critical for an ultra-fast Ga2O3 package to avoid excessive voltage overshoot and ringing. Using ODBC, we have designed novel packages capable of handling the challenges presented by fast Ga2O3 switching. Using multi-physics modeling software, we can validate our design before building the prototype. Due to the simple process parameters needed to work with ODBC, we can rapidly create prototypes without using external vendors. This flexibility allows us to quickly design, build, and validate highly complex switching power modules to accommodate next generation, Ga2O3 switching devices.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reproducible benchmark for the SNAP 8 experimental reactor at operating conditions

This work presents fully reproducible multiphysics benchmark models of the Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP) 8 Experimental Reactor at operating conditions with coolant flow. Wet experiment (with coolant, at power) validation benchmarks are presented using both deterministic (Serpent-Griffin) and Monte-Carlo (OpenMC-Cardinal) multiphysics frameworks coupled with thermal-hydraulic solvers in MOOSE. Reactivity coefficient measurements including fuel temperature, isothermal temperature, and power coefficients show good agreement with experiments, with discrepancies within experimental uncertainty. Reactivity worth experiments for coolant, samarium, and xenon poisoning are reproduced with differences under 200 pcm. Comparison between Serpent-Griffin and OpenMC-Cardinal frameworks reveal multiphysics coupling introduces positive reactivity effects (100-200 pcm) compared to uniform temperature and density fields at nominal operating conditions. Comparison between Serpent-Griffin and reference Serpent solution shows that power distributions maintain consistent radial and axial peaking behavior. All models, assumptions, thermophysical and thermomechanical properties, and material definitions are thoroughly documented with cited references; model inputs and model generating scripts are stored in the snapReactors GitHub repository.

SNAP↗

DOE OSTI2026

Inference of the linear matter power spectrum at z = 0 using DESI DR1 Full-Shape data

Measurements of galaxy distributions at large cosmic distances capture clustering from the past. In this study, we use a cosmological model to translate these observations into the present-day galaxy distribution. Specifically, we reconstruct the 3D linear matter power spectrum at redshift z = 0 using Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 (DR1) galaxy clustering data and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) observations, assuming the ΛCDM model, and compare it to the result assuming the w 0 w a CDM model. Building on previous state-of-the-art methods, we apply Effective Field Theory (EFT) modelling of the galaxy power spectrum to account for small-scale effects in the 2-point statistics of galaxy data. Implementation of the EFT approach improves the modelling of the galaxy power spectrum, providing a more robust consistency test of the assumed cosmological model. By casting both CMB and galaxy clustering observations, spanning distinct redshift regimes, into k-space, we can identify discrepancies between the datasets of different redshifts, which would indicate potential inaccuracies in the assumed expansion history. While previous studies have shown consistency with ΛCDM, this work extends the analysis with higher-quality data to further test the expansion histories of both ΛCDM and w 0 w a CDM. Our findings show that both ΛCDM and w 0 w a CDM provide consistent fits to the linear matter power spectrum recovered from DESI DR1 data.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Off forward non- s -channel helicity conserving contributions to exclusive vector quarkonium production from the spin dependent BFKL Pomeron

A novel contribution to off forward, exclusive vector quarkonium production, γ(*)+p → V+p, at high energy is derived which corresponds to a t-channel exchange of a Balitsky-Fadin-Kuraev-Lipatov (BFKL) hard Pomeron, with a helicity flip of the proton. This “spin-dependent BFKL Pomeron” is required in a consistent expansion in powers of the momentum transfer t ≈−Δ$^{2}_{⊥}$ beyond first order. The spin-dependent Pomeron violates s-channel helicity conservation at O(Δ$^{2}_{⊥}$), and beyond. Expanding to leading twist only, it corresponds to generalized parton distributions E g (x,t) for vanishing skewness. We derive explicit expressions for the eikonal BFKL amplitudes, to all orders in dipole size times momentum transfer, for all helicity configurations of the particles in the initial and final states. We also provide numerical estimates of the helicity flip two gluon exchange amplitude at moderate x from a light cone quark model of the proton. The spin dependent BFKL Pomeron could, in principle, be discovered via double spin asymmetries in e+p → e+p+J/ψ with a transversely polarized proton and longitudinally polarized electron in the initial state.

Deep inelastic scattering↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Reinforcement Learning (ARL) Control of a Multi-port Resonant Converter in UAV Systems

This study presents an adaptive reinforcement learning (ARL) control framework for a multi-port resonant converter used in hybrid unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) power systems. The converter integrates high-frequency half-bridge input ports connected to a rectified engine–generator set and a battery energy storage system, along with a semi-bridgeless active rectifier supplying the propulsion load. A deep RL agent is trained to dynamically regulate inter-port phase-shift commands in real time based on flight conditions and load power demand. The ARL controller autonomously identifies phase-shift combinations that maximize conversion efficiency while maintaining stable and coordinated power flow, even under rapidly varying operating scenarios. This data-driven approach eliminates the need for explicit system modeling or extensive manual tuning and enables coordinated control among multiple power ports without inter-port communication. Experimental results validate that the ARL based strategy achieves reliable power sharing and consistently high-efficiency operation across diverse UAV operating conditions.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Performance of SF6 Replacement Gases to Enable the Next Generation of Pulsed Power

High voltage switches are essential components in pulsed power systems, where consistent and reliable performance is crucial—particularly as the field explores alternatives to SF 6 as an insulating gas. This project examines the self-break voltage distributions of various gases, with a focus on the low-voltage discharges observed in the lower tail of these distributions. Experimental results revealed that the specific housing design influenced the self-break behavior. Among the tested gases, air demonstrated a more favorable overall distribution compared to SF 6 , albeit requiring higher operating pressures. However, air also exhibited a greater likelihood of extremely low-voltage dropouts, raising concerns about its suitability as a direct replacement for SF 6 . Notably, all gases tested showed a higher-than-expected probability of low-voltage events when considering the tail of the distribution rather than the bulk behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Value of Nuclear Energy to the Reliability of the North American Power System: Results for Western and Eastern Interconnections

This report documents the fulfillment of a milestone for the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: completing a baseline study of regional impact of nuclear power plants and hydrogen production in maintaining grid services and power quality. Models have been comprehensively demonstrated for the Western Interconnection, or Western Electric Coordinating Council area, and in the Eastern Interconnection for scenarios representative of past extreme events (e.g., drought and heat waves). Understanding the impact on the reliability of the bulk electric system of any reduction in generation capacity from nuclear power, for any reason, is the motivation of this work. Factors that might lead to the premature or unplanned closure of nuclear plants, extended outages, or repurposing of nuclear power include: • Aging infrastructure: Many nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing the end of their designed operating lives. Upgrading aging infrastructure can be expensive, and some utilities may choose to retire plants rather than invest in costly upgrades. • Low wholesale electricity prices: The deregulation of the electricity market in many states has led to increased competition and driven down wholesale electricity prices, causing nuclear power operators to seek other revenue sources for their heat and power such as clean hydrogen production. • Renewables growth: The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is posing a challenge to traditional generation sources like nuclear. While many see renewables as a key part of the clean energy transition, their intermittent nature requires additional grid solutions for reliable power supply. • The potential for regulatory decisions to be in conflict: In its 2021 rulemaking, EPA rule (86 FR 880), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set a compliance date for the ban on processing and distribution in commerce of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (DecaBDE). Since DecaBDE is in many components, particularly wiring, of nuclear power plants which are deemed safety-related or important to safety, three plants would not have been able to restart after their 2023 spring outages, and numerous others would have faced issues in the near future. Fortunately, in this case, the EPA provided relief to the nuclear energy industry. The report provides a summary of the significant role nuclear energy plays in the United States’ power generation mix, supplying around 20% of the nation’s electricity generation, spread across 28 U.S. states. Nuclear power is reliable, mostly unaffected by weather and seasonal changes, and provides a consistent source of baseload power. In terms of capacity, nuclear power plants account for as much as 26% of balancing area power generation capacity. Nuclear power also provides a substantial contribution (e.g., 10% of the inertia in the Eastern Interconnection) of the synchronous spinning mass/inertia that buffers the rate at which frequency changes when a load and generation imbalance occurs (e.g., a large plant trips or a load is suddenly shed due to a transmission outage). This contribution is critical for maintaining grid stability during sudden changes in load or generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Microgrid for Critical Data Center Applications

As part of continuing efforts to develop support, understanding, and infrastructure of data center integration onto the electric grid, our work aims to model and analyze the behavior of data center loads in a microgrid power system. Our model consists of renewable energy sources, batteries, and a nuclear reactor-steam Rankine cycle to power data center loads. The simulation studies investigate the electrical behavior of the microgrid system to assess its ability in supporting large data center electrical demands.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Corroborating VNA and thermal measurements of transmission loss on the DIII-D ECH waveguide system

Electron cyclotron heating (ECH) and current drive (ECCD) will play a large role in tokamak-based fusion reactors. At the DIII-D tokamak, 110 GHz microwaves injected into the plasma can provide core heating and current drive as well as impurity control, neoclassical tearing mode mitigation, and breakdown assistance. Understanding the physics of these processes relies on accurate estimates of injected ECH power. DIII-D’s ECH system consists of six MW-class Microwave Power Products (MPP) gyrotron microwave sources. Operating the gyrotrons far from the tokamak removes them from magnetic field interference, so 31.75 mm inner-diameter corrugated waveguides transmit the microwave power the 80 m from the gyrotrons to steerable launchers in the tokamak chamber. Estimates of injected power rely on knowing the generated power at the source and then subtracting transmission loss. Conventional transmission loss measurements based on calorimetric dummy loads are onerous and only possible during extended maintenance periods. This work examines two tools that provide more flexibility for the transmission loss measurements. Furthermore, a resistive temperature detector (RTD) array installed along a waveguide measures heat lost to the transmission line, and low power time domain reflectometry (TDR) measurements with a vector network analyzer (VNA) allows loss measurements without burdensome hardware modifications.

ECH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Coulomb scattering in acrylic of a 221.3 MeV therapeutic proton beam

Measurements of multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) distributions for 221.3 MeV therapeutic protons are presented using a novel detector system comprised of a thin scintillator, a pellicle mirror, and a digital camera. The MCS distributions were characterized for three acrylic phantoms of varying lengths and for two biological density-equivalent phantoms simulating bone and muscle. Additionally, beam profiles were measured across an energy range of 80.3–221.3 MeV in 20 MeV increments. The observed energy dependence of the photon yields is consistent with the tabulated stopping power values. Finally, the experimental results are benchmarked against Geant4 simulations, demonstrating consistent agreement and validating the capability of the detector system for radiology measurements.

Digital camera↗

DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Power balance and divertor asymmetries in the Super-X divertors of MAST-U using SOLPS-ITER

Spherical tokamaks (STs) present unique challenges and opportunities in the area of particle and power exhaust, intensified due to their more compact sizes. Substantial efforts are underway in STs to determine the limits in dissipative operational regimes and advanced divertor solutions, including at MAST-U which provides access to the Super-X divertor configuration. Power balance, and upper/lower divertor asymmetries have been studied using SOLPS-ITER simulations of the MAST-U Super-X divertor. A set of simulations with experimentally inferred transport coefficients with E x B and diamagnetic drifts activated, consisting of density and power scans, and high field side vs low field side gas puff locations, have been used for code experimentation to uncover trends beyond the current experimental parameter space. The upper biased asymmetry (U:L > 1) of the ratio of the peaks of the plasma energy flux densities at the outer targets increases with heating power and decreases with gas puff strength, going from symmetric to up to a factor of 15. The upper target electron temperature has been found to be a good ordering quantity for the magnitude of this asymmetry for all heating powers, gas puff strength, and gas puff locations. The lower divertor biased asymmetry (U:L < 1) of the radiation patterns processed through SOLPS-based bolometry synthetic diagnostics is in qualitative agreement with resistive bolometry experimental results, and it is in quantitative agreement with the trend of the total volume radiation within the divertors of SOLPS. However, radiation measurements alone are not sufficient to infer the magnitude of the asymmetry of the peaks of the power loads at the targets.

MAST-U↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of Three Types of Electric Field Sensors

On June 3-4, 2025, we evaluated three types of electric-field (E-field) sensors: capacitive electrodes, stainless-steel stakes, and porous pots - at two electromagnetic (EM) stations (PWBVI and PWAOF) on Aqueduct Mesa at the Nevada National Security Site. We compared calibrated time series and derived metrics including power spectral density, root-mean-square (RMS) amplitude, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and detectability of power line harmonics and Schumann resonance. The objective was to identify an alternative E field sensor with higher SNR than the existing capacitive electrodes. Our data demonstrates that stainless-steel electrodes perform best, with the highest SNR and the most consistent detection of power-line harmonics and Schumann resonance among the three sensor types; they may be used as a supplement to, or replacement for, the existing capacitive electrodes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing core and edge turbulence regimes with fluctuation imaging diagnostics in Wendelstein 7-X

Two density fluctuation imaging systems, phase contrast imaging (PCI) and gas puff imaging (GPI) measure spatially resolved density fluctuations with high time resolution throughout the core plasma (PCI) and in the scrape-off layer (GPI) of the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. Both systems combined give a comprehensive overview of overall fluctuation levels, spectral properties such as their distribution in frequency and wavenumber space as well as their spatial distribution. These tools are used to assess changes in density turbulence in three representative discharges that transition into stable divertor detachment by different strategies (impurity seeding, density ramping and power starvation). Several general trends are identified when the radiated power fraction is systematically increased: In the plasma edge, the line emission observed by GPI shifts radially inward with a drop in electron temperature, and normalized intensity fluctuation profiles follow this inward shift. Skewness and kurtosis of these edge fluctuations are reduced, indicating a reduction of large intermittent transport events, and poloidal phase velocities decrease in magnitude. These observations are consistent with a reduced power input into the plasma edge and a general reduction of turbulent activity. Core density fluctuation levels remain nearly constant in the impurity seeding scenario, indicating that detachment does not significantly impact turbulence there. However, a strong reduction in the dominant outboard fluctuation phase velocity is observed that deviates from the previous interpretation of neoclassical radial electric field changes, showing that the core plasma is not completely unaffected. In the density ramp and power starvation scenarios, undesirable and irregular large-scale events arise clearly in both diagnostic systems as the radiative fraction is increased. Impurity seeding therefore seems to be a promising strategy on W7-X to achieve detachment without significantly altering core turbulence, especially when targeting a specific operating point in core density and heating power.

Wendelstein 7-X↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States

Climate change impacts on watersheds can potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues where water serves multiple purposes including hydropower. The long-term management of water and energy resources is still mostly approached in a siloed manner at different basins or watersheds, failing to consider the potential impacts that may concurrently affect many regions at once. There is a need for a large-scale hydropower modeling framework that can examine climate impacts across adjoining river basins and balancing authorities (BAs) and provide a periodic assessment at regional to national scales. Expanding from our prior assessment only for the United States (US) federal hydropower plants, we enhance and extend two regional hydropower models to cover over 85% of the total hydropower nameplate capacity and present the first contiguous US-wide assessment of future hydropower production under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6’s high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 emission scenario using an uncertainty-aware multi-model ensemble approach. We present regional hydropower projections, using both BA regions and US Hydrologic Subregions (HUC4s), to consistently inform the energy and water communities for two future periods—the near-term (2020–2039) and the mid-term (2040–2059) relative to a historical baseline period (1980–2019). We find that the median projected changes in annual hydropower generation are typically positive—approximately 5% in the near-term, and 10% in the mid-term. However, since the risk of regional droughts is also projected to increase, future planning cannot overly rely on the ensemble median, as the potential of severe hydropower reductions could be overlooked. The assessment offers an ensemble of future hydropower generation projections, providing regional utilities and power system operators with consistent data to develop drought scenarios, design long duration storage and evaluate energy infrastructure reliability under intensified inter-annual and seasonal variability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulations of the churning mode: Toroidally symmetric plasma convection and turbulence around the X-points in a snowflake divertor

Using a reduced MHD model, extended to include field-aligned thermal conduction, we present numerical simulations of the churning mode (CM): a toroidally symmetric, non-linear plasma vortex in the vicinity of the null points in a snowflake (SF) divertor [D. D. Ryutov et al., Phys. Scr. 89, 088002 (2014)]. Simulations are carried out across a range of inter-null separations, d xx ⁠, and inter-null orientations, θ⁠, primarily in conditions relevant to the MAST-U tokamak. We find that, when d xx is small, the CM induces additional transport across the X-points when β pm ≳8%, where β pm is the ratio of the plasma pressure in the null region to poloidal magnetic pressure at the midplane. This transport also increases approximately linearly as d xx is reduced. A diffusive model of this transport is shown to predict the total transport across the null points, where diffusion coefficients of up to ∼ 10 2 m 2 s −1 centered on a small region around the X-points are used. However, the CM also results in significant changes to the flux surfaces in the null region, which is not captured by this diffusive model. The changes in magnetic geometry mean the fractional exhaust power delivered to each divertor leg is highly sensitive to β pm ⁠, d xx ⁠, and θ⁠. For small values of θ⁠, the CM can induce a change in topology, redirecting exhaust power from a secondary divertor leg on the high field side to one on the low field side. Similar behavior is found in the fraction of exhaust power going to the inner and outer divertor. Such changes in the flux surfaces may not be captured by Grad–Shafranov solvers and so may be a source of error in the magnetic reconstruction of SF experiments. We consistently find that the fractional exhaust power going to a secondary divertor leg on the high field side is small, consistent with SF experiments.

Computer simulation↗