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DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonizing the US Energy System

Recent rapid and unexpected cost reductions in decarbonization technologies have accelerated the cost-effective decarbonization of the US economy, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling by 20% from 2005 to 2020. The literature on US economy-wide decarbonization focuses on maximizing long-term GHG emissions reduction strategies that rely mostly on renewable energy expansion, electrification, and efficiency improvements to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While these studies provide a valuable foundation, further research is needed to properly support decarbonization policy development and implementation. In this review, we identify key decarbonization analysis gaps and opportunities, including issues related to cross-sectoral linkages, spatial and temporal granularity, consumer behavior, emerging technologies, equity and environmental justice, and political economy. We conclude by discussing the implications of these analysis gaps for US decarbonization pathways and how they relate to challenges facing major global emitters.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conservation and conviviality in the American West

The emerging field of convivial conservation (CC) draws on the tradition of political ecology (PE) to present a “radical” alternative to contemporary environmentalisms, speaking to the challenges of conservation in the Anthropocene as well as the global ascent of reactionary populism. Building on previous work arguing for the ongoing value of dialogue between PE and the American West, I here develop a conversation between CC and another radical intervention, the collaborative conservation of the West’s so-called “radical center” (RC). Using the nexus of wolf–livestock conflict and public lands grazing, I first trace a genealogical history of western environmental politics before turning to CC as critical corrective to the shortcomings of the RC. Scholarship on the commons and commoning provides an analytical bridge and political toolkit for linking the empirics of place with the aspirational aims of conviviality, and naming and navigating on-the-ground obstacles to collaborative conservation efforts in the region. This dialogue in turn highlights deeply rooted tensions of capitalist political economy and questions of non/belonging rooted in settler colonialism—necessary regional engagements for building from polarized antagonism toward an alternative environmental politics of coexistence and conviviality.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Politics of problem definition: Comparing public support of climate change mitigation policies using machine learning

Public support is a key contributor to successful policy adoption and implementation. Given the urgency of climate change mitigation, scholars have explored various determinants that affect public support for climate change mitigation policy. However, the relative decisiveness of these factors in shaping public support is insufficiently examined. Therefore, we deploy interpretable machine learning to understand which factors, among many previously investigated, are most decisive for structuring public support for various climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we particularly look at the decisiveness of problem definition for shaping public support among various factors. Using U.S national survey data, we find that how individuals define the issue of climate change is more decisive for structuring public support for promoting renewable energy and regulating pollutants to mitigate the risks associated with climate change. However, the results also indicate that the most decisive factors associated with public support vary depending on the types of mitigation policy. Here, we conclude that different strategies should be utilized to increase public support for various climate change mitigation policy options. Our findings contribute to a scholarly understanding of the specific politics of problem definition in the context of environmental and climate change policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

LDRD23-0730: Invoking Multilayer Networks to Develop a Paradigm for Security Science—Summary Report

Current approaches to securing high consequence facilities (HCF) and critical assets are linear and static and therefore struggle to adapt to emerging threats (e.g., unmanned aerial systems) and changing environmental conditions (e.g., decreasing operational control). The pace of change in technological, organizational, societal, and political dynamics necessitates a move toward codifying underlying scientific principles to better characterize the rich interactions observed between HCF security technology, infrastructure, digital assets, and human or organizational components. The promising results of Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 20-0373—“Developing a Resilient, Adaptive, and Systematic Paradigm for Security Analysis”—suggest that when compared to traditional security analysis, invoking multilayer network (MLN) modeling for HCF security system components captures unexpected failure cases and unanticipated interactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intervening alcohol marketing to reduce harmful alcohol use and lessons learned from the theory of changes: Case studies in Thailand

Objectives Globally, the burden of disease caused by alcohol use has been steadily increasing, including in Thailand. In this study, we aim to test the effectiveness of Anderson et al.‘s suggested three approaches to change the collective social norms, which comprise of: (1) providing information and an understanding about alcohol use behaviour, its causes and distribution; (2) focusing strategies on groups rather than individuals; and (3) strengthening supportive laws, regulations and approaches. Study design We employed a mixed-methods approach. Evidence was gathered from literature review and in-depth interviews with key individuals who are responsible for community-based interventions to alcohol marketing strategies in Thailand. Methods We chose to focus on two case studies in Nan and Surin provinces, where hospital-based longitudinal data (8 years) were available. Changes in casualties related to the harmful use of alcohol, resulting from interactions between community-based interventions and alcohol marketing during the time of annual festivals were investigated. We employed the theory of change (ToC) defined by Vogel to guide the data collection and analysis. We reviewed literature from online databases and grey literature to generate causal-loop diagrams. Results We created a causal-loop diagram to describe the complexity of harmful alcohol use, its related factors, context, interventions and outcomes. Over the decade between 2006 and 2015, community-based strategies led to a substantial reduction of casualties (initially a 50% reduction, rising to an 80–90% reduction by the end of the study period) during the time of the festivals. Conclusions The reduction in injuries and fatalities could be a result of the concerted actions, including legal sanctions of alcohol beverage sales and advertisement, and public education to raise awareness and impart knowledge of the harmful use of alcohol. The actions were organised by a coalition of civil society, health professionals, public authorities and community leaders using hospital-based data on the adverse effects of harmful alcohol use to mobilise political support at the provincial level. The availability of long-term financial support as a catalytic source of funds and the presence of a comprehensive alcohol control act enabled framing and mobilisation of local resources and political support.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Publication of the Belle II Software

The Belle II software was developed by a few hundred individual contributors over several years. Following the rising desire of making it publicly available, the collaboration established open source software policies and procedures. The political and technical challenges and their solutions at Belle II are discussed in this article. With the publication of the Belle II software, basf2, on GitHub and Zenodo in 2021 an important milestone towards open science was reached.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exotic Carbonate Mineralization Recovered from a Deep Basalt Carbon Storage Demonstration

Mitigating climate change require transformational advances for carbon dioxide removal, including geologic carbon sequestration in reactive subsurface environments. The Wallula Basalt Carbon Storage Pilot Project demonstrated that CO 2 injected into >800 m deep Columbia River Basalt Group flow top reservoirs mineralizes on month-year timescales. Herein, we present new optical petrography, micro-computed X-ray tomography, and electron microscopy results sidewall cores collected two years after CO 2 injection. As no other anthropogenic carbonates from geologic carbon storage field studies have been recovered, this world-unique sample suite provides unparalleled insight for subsurface carbon mineralization products and paragenesis. Chemically-zoned nodules with Ca/Mn-rich cores and Fe-dominant outer rims are prominent examples of the neoformed carbonate assemblages with ankerite-siderite compositions and exotic divalent cation correlations. Further, paragenetic insights for the timing of aragonite, silica, and fibrous zeolites are clarified based on mineral texture and spatial relationships, along with time-resolved downhole fluid sampling. Collectively, these results clarify the mineralogy, chemistry, and paragenesis of carbon mineralization, providing insight into the ultimate fate and transport of CO 2 in reactive mafic-ultramafic reservoirs

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The evolution of symbiotic innovation, water, and agricultural supply chains

Abstract The water literature has mainly investigated the diversion and distribution of water from the source to the end users or the utilization of water at the farm level in crop production. This paper presents a supply chain perspective that links the innovation supply chain of water delivery and irrigation with the complete water supply chain to the crop and the crop supply chains. These supply chains are symbiotic. Changes in the demand for crops, agronomic technology, and knowledge about water will modify the water infrastructure, irrigation technology, land‐use and crop production patterns, and the pricing of water and related commodities. The parameters that guide investment in water innovation and the design of the water supply chain depend on political, economic, and technological considerations that have coevolved over time with water and crop systems. Evidence from California and elsewhere supports the findings of the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). Furthermore, we find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO 2 ). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Perspective Chapter: Safe Disposal and Storage of Nuclear Waste

The use of nuclear energy inevitably generates nuclear waste as the byproduct of fission reactions. Depending on the initial composition of the fuel that goes into the reactor and the subsequent burn-up level, the chemistry of the resulting nuclear waste can vary substantially. This waste typically exhibits a broad spectrum of radioactivity and half-lives, making effective management one of the most critical challenges for global nuclear energy. This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the origin and classification of nuclear waste and various strategies for its safe immobilization and disposal. The short- and long-term storage of waste with varying radioactivity is addressed. The significant technical and political complexities involving primarily long-term disposal are also discussed. To ensure the safe and permanent disposal of hazardous waste with extremely long half-lives, future efforts should focus on both technical innovation and public engagement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-dimensional resilience: A quantitative exploration of disease outcomes and economic, political, and social resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic in six countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for better understanding of countries’ vulnerability and resilience to not only pandemics but also disasters, climate change, and other systemic shocks. A comprehensive characterization of vulnerability can inform efforts to improve infrastructure and guide disaster response in the future. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for studying countries’ vulnerability and resilience to incident disasters across multiple dimensions of society. To illustrate this methodology, we leverage the rich data landscape surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic to characterize observed resilience for several countries (USA, Brazil, India, Sweden, New Zealand, and Israel) as measured by pandemic impacts across a variety of social, economic, and political domains. We also assess how observed responses and outcomes (i.e., resilience) of the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with pre-pandemic characteristics or vulnerabilities, including (1) prior risk for adverse pandemic outcomes due to population density and age and (2) the systems in place prior to the pandemic that may impact the ability to respond to the crisis, including health infrastructure and economic capacity. Our work demonstrates the importance of viewing vulnerability and resilience in a multi-dimensional way, where a country’s resources and outcomes related to vulnerability and resilience can differ dramatically across economic, political, and social domains. This work also highlights key gaps in our current understanding about vulnerability and resilience and a need for data-driven, context-specific assessments of disaster vulnerability in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Utility-Privacy Trade-Off: Impacts of Semantic and Visit Types Ambiguities on Human Mobility Simulation

Humans are in perpetual movement, constantly traversing buildings, cities, waters, oceans, and countries. Mobility stands out as a major driving force shaping our modern societies. Capturing and explaining human behavior in a world of eight billion distinct mobility agendas is a complex challenge. With the rise of interconnected devices and platforms, such as smartphones, wearables, and point-of-interest data, largescale behavioral data has become more accessible, enabling rich insights into mobility patterns. However, the widespread availability of such data introduces significant ethical challenges. Detailed mobility data can inadvertently reveal sensitive personal information, including individuals' locations, habits, social interactions, and even political or religious affiliations. Beyond privacy breaches, the ethical implications of uncovering and potentially manipulating underlying behavioral patterns demand attention. Striking a balance between the utility of mobility models and the protection of individual privacy is therefore paramount. This paper explores the utility-privacy trade-offs in human mobility modeling, focusing on the impacts of introducing semantic and visit type ambiguities. By systematically examining how these ambiguities affect the fidelity of simulated trajectories and privacy risks, we provide a framework for evaluating ethical and privacy-conscious modeling practices. Our findings emphasize the need for methods that safeguard privacy without undermining the usefulness of mobility models, contributing to the responsible advancement of mobility science in alignment with ethical standards and societal expectations.

Amichi, Licia [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000177631394)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Navigating the obstacles of carbon-negative technologies

Nine years after the Paris Agreement was adopted, it is clear that negative-emission technologies are required to keep 1.5°C, or even 2°C, of global warming in reach. Yet carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies remain rife with political, technical, economic, environmental, and geographic challenges. Here, this Voices surveys the pitfalls of incorporating carbon-negative technologies into climate mitigation plans and asks: how can we navigate around the challenges to make CDR a reliable component of climate mitigation?

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pollution in the Press: Employing Text Analytics to Understand Regional Water Quality Narratives

Drinking water has and will continue to be at the foundation of our nation’s well-being and there is a growing interest in United States (US) drinking water quality. Nearly 30% of the United States population obtained their water from community water systems that did not meet federal regulations in 2019. Given the heavy interactions between society and drinking water quality, this study integrates social constructionism, environmental injustice, and sociohydrological systems to evaluate local awareness of drinking water quality issues. By employing text analytics, we explore potential drivers of regional water quality narratives within 25 local news sources across the United States. Specifically, we assess the relationship between printed local newspapers and water quality violations in communities as well as the influence of social, political, and economic factors on the coverage of drinking water quality issues. Results suggest that the volume and/or frequency of local drinking water violations is not directly reflected in local news coverage. Additionally, news coverage varied across sociodemographic features, with a negative relationship between Hispanic populations and news coverage of Lead and Copper Rule, and a positive relationship among non-Hispanic white populations. These findings extend current understanding of variations in local narratives to consider nuances of water quality issues and indicate opportunities for increasing equity in environmental risk communication.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Needs to Support the Reconstruction Strategy of Ukraine

Ukraine has been facing difficult times. Russia started a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has caused huge human and infrastructure losses. As a result of the invasion, more than 8 million people left their homes. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian energy sources, destroying or damaging over 50% of thermal power generation capacity (coal and gas), 30% of solar generation, and 90% of wind generation. The Russians are also threatening Ukrainian energy security, as they currently control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. In addition, Russia has destroyed 121,000 buildings, including 5,300 multistory buildings - more buildings than Ukraine built during the past five years. The occupiers destroyed or damaged 343 district heat boiler stations (destroyed 12 / damaged 331) and 8 CHPs (destroyed 4/ damaged 4). There is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity; however, this will be a long process. The Government of Ukraine needs to simultaneously focus on many issues, from waging war to the restoration of electricity, water, and heat supply in the territories close to the front line. In addition to these time-sensitive issues, the government also needs to plan a long term multi-sector strategy for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine initiated a broad-based political process for recovery at the International Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, Switzerland. Prior to URC 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28 and was granted the status of candidate country by the European Council on June 23, 2022. More than 40 nations are fully committed to supporting Ukraine throughout its path from early to long-term recovery. In addition, these countries link a successful recovery to Ukraine’s European future (URC, 2022a). The reconstruction process will be long. The government also recognizes that it is not enough to build energy infrastructure back – it should be built back better. The government is committed to building a more sustainable and cleaner energy sector. Energy modeling can provide important insights into paths to decarbonize Ukraine’s economy while rebuilding it after the war. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IEF) work on modeling decarbonization scenarios in the energy sector of Ukraine. The teams focus on the heat sector, which includes district heat, autonomous and individual heating, and energy consumption by final energy consumption sectors, including buildings. Since the teams use world-class integrated assessment models, other sectors will be analyzed as well. The purpose of the document is to describe the needs of key Ukrainian ministries in modeling the reconstruction process. The scope of this document is limited to modeling energy consumption by the power and heat sectors, final energy consumption by buildings, and GHG emissions from these two sectors. The rest of this policy memo is organized as follows. After this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses key provisions of the reconstruction strategy with a focus on energy, buildings, heat supply, environment, and European integration aspirations. Section 3 provides an overview of recent developments and key decisions of the Government of Ukraine in the area of energy efficiency and decarbonization. Finally, Section 4 provides key suggestions on how PNNL and IEF can help the Government of Ukraine in developing strategic documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finding ways to reduce nuclear waste: searching for the unknown one step at a time

In my home country, Venezuela, research has been stagnant. Due to the political turmoil and the crisis, many educated people have left the country in search for a better life. This has caused a deficit in any technological and scientific advances, making Venezuela one of the first South American countries to have its rate of publications decline by 29% in 2013. Currently, Venezuela lacks the infrastructure and the means to keep up with the research progress as compared to other countries in South America, such as Brazil. Since coming to the United States (US), and currently working for a national laboratory, the active research environment endorses a wide range of careers and engineering programs that allow researchers to thrive at any given field. Researchers have access to funds and tools to succeed in developing materials for the future. There are 17 national laboratories in the US, and all of these have a different research focus/objective. As examples, Los Alamos National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratory focus is on national homeland security, weapon science, radiation effects, among others. Argonne National Laboratory focuses on nuclear energy, energy storage, high performance computing, etc. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL) the research focuses on innovating nuclear energy and clean energy resources, critical infrastructure materials, along with fuel cycle solutions to manage, dispose and find ways to recycle current and future radiological waste. Compared to other national laboratories, INL focuses slightly more on applied processes and how nuclear energy can be innovated to next reactor design and technologies. The research being conducted at INL made me apply for a Seaborg distinguished postdoctoral position. For the position itself, the researcher must submit a proposal related to actinide chemistry on a research field area. In this position, 50% of my time will be focused on my own proposal. The proposal that I am working on is focused on the innovation of nuclear energy and fuel cycle recycling, which is why I was mainly interested on working at this national laboratory. To give a bit more context of what my proposal is about, a little bit of background is necessary: After the nuclear fuel (UO2) is used in a reactor, the fuel matrix is then characterized by various fission products (FP). Among these FP (including rare earth elements, alkali/alkaline earths, and actinides), many can potentially be recovered through nuclear reprocessing technologies. In pyroprocessing, the used nuclear fuel undergoes electrochemical dissolution into a molten chloride salt mixture in an electrorefiner. Initially, uranium is reduced onto an inert cathode by applied potentials. However, numerous remaining FPs accumulate in the melt and pose challenges for recovery by an inert electrode, particularly the rare earth elements (e.g., Nd, Gd, Pr, Sm) due to their multivalent oxidation states and tendencies toward side reactions, leading to their dissolution in the electrolyte. These recovery challenges result in inefficiencies and necessitate the continual discarding of the molten chloride salt, thereby generating additional waste. Furthermore, the presence of rare earth elements and other fission products in the molten salt electrolyte alters its physical and chemical properties, affecting both uranium recovery efficiency and the longevity of the molten chloride salt. To improve the recovery efficiency of the FP, specifically rare earth elements, I am investigating the fundamental interactions between rare earth elements in the molten chloride salt and their metallic form. The kinetic pathways and the chemical reactions of these elements will give insights on how the recovery efficiency can be improved. The interactions and speciation of these elements are being studied by spectro-electrochemistry at high temperature environments in quartz and other ceramic materials (e.g., alumina crucibles). Some of the challenges I am facing specifically relates the reactivity of some of these elements with different glass and crucible materials. Although my research focuses on fundamental science, it will benefit the applied process by generating new scientific knowledge and closing the gap for an efficient recycling of the waste: one step at a time.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗