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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Learning generative neural networks with physics knowledge

Deep generative neural networks have enabled modeling complex distributions, but incorporating physics knowledge into the neural networks is still challenging and is at the core of current physics-based machine learning research. To this end, we propose a physics generative neural network (PhysGNN), a new class of generative neural networks for learning unknown distributions in a physical system described by partial differential equations (PDE). PhysGNN couples PDE systems with generative neural networks. It is a fully differentiable model that allows back-propagation of gradients through both numerical PDE solvers and generative neural networks, and is trained by minimizing the discrete Wasserstein distance between generated and observed probability distributions of the PDE outputs using the stochastic gradient descent method. Moreover, PhysGNN does not require adversarial training like standard generative neural networks, which offers better stability than adversarial training. We show that PhysGNN can learn complex distributions in stochastic inverse problems, where conventional methods such as maximum likelihood estimation and momentum matching methods may be inapplicable when little knowledge is known about the form of unknown distributions or the physical model is too complex. Furthermore, our method allows physics-based generative neural network training for learning complex distributions in the context of differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2021

Medium-Sized Helicopter Noise Abatement Flight Test Data Report

Helicopter noise has consistently hindered operations within urban areas and surrounding communities. To combat this, an extensive flight test campaign, described herein, was conducted to gather acoustic data to support helicopter noise research (e.g., physics-based modeling, operational planning, etc.). Acoustic measurements were collected from four helicopters in the medium-sized weight class with maximum takeoff gross weights between 7,400 and 14,200 lb: a Bell 205 “Huey”, a Sikorsky S-76D, a Leonardo AW139, and a US Coast Guard MH-65 Dolphin (a variant of the commercial Airbus AS365 Dauphin). Each aircraft per- formed a subset of level flyovers, steady descents, turns with various initial conditions, and noise abatement approaches. A distributed ground microphone array spanning approximately 2,000 by 4,000 ft collected measurements of each flyover event. Additionally, a dedicated semicircular microphone array was used for gathering acoustic measurements of static conditions (e.g., hover). This report provides an overview of the flight test methodology, conditions tested, equipment used, and details of the accompanying distribution dataset. Figures of sample results generated for each test point are included to enable comparison and selection of the data at the discretion of the user. Specifically, source noise hemispheres of the steady flight conditions illustrate directivity of over- all levels. Noise contours over the array provide insight into the ground levels associated with approaches and turning events. These data figures are derived from the original acoustic pressure-time histories and vehicle tracking data that are provided in the distribution dataset.

Rotorcraft↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed machine learning with differentiable programming for heterogeneous underground reservoir pressure management

Abstract Avoiding over-pressurization in subsurface reservoirs is critical for applications like CO $$_2$$ 2 sequestration and wastewater injection. Managing the pressures by controlling injection/extraction are challenging because of complex heterogeneity in the subsurface. The heterogeneity typically requires high-fidelity physics-based models to make predictions on CO $$_2$$ 2 fate. Furthermore, characterizing the heterogeneity accurately is fraught with parametric uncertainty. Accounting for both, heterogeneity and uncertainty, makes this a computationally-intensive problem challenging for current reservoir simulators. To tackle this, we use differentiable programming with a full-physics model and machine learning to determine the fluid extraction rates that prevent over-pressurization at critical reservoir locations. We use DPFEHM framework, which has trustworthy physics based on the standard two-point flux finite volume discretization and is also automatically differentiable like machine learning models. Our physics-informed machine learning framework uses convolutional neural networks to learn an appropriate extraction rate based on the permeability field. We also perform a hyperparameter search to improve the model’s accuracy. Training and testing scenarios are executed to evaluate the feasibility of using physics-informed machine learning to manage reservoir pressures. We constructed and tested a sufficiently accurate simulator that is 400 000 times faster than the underlying physics-based simulator, allowing for near real-time analysis and robust uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Multi-Scale Modelling of the Bound Metal Deposition Manufacturing of Ti6Al4V

Nonlinear shrinkage of the metal part during manufacturing by bound metal deposition, both on the ground and under microgravity, is considered. A multi-scale physics-based approach is developed to address the problem. It spans timescales from atomistic dynamics on the order of nanoseconds to full-part shrinkage on the order of hours. This approach enables estimation of the key parameters of the problem, including the widths of grain boundaries, the coefficient of surface diffusion, the initial redistribution of particles during the debinding stage, the evolution of the microstructure from round particles to densely-packed grains, the corresponding changes in the total and chemical free energies, and the sintering stress. The method has been used to predict shrinkage at the levels of two particles, of the filament cross-section, of the sub-model, and of the whole green, brown, and metal parts.

Nonlinear shrinkage↗
NASA NTRS2014

Training Knowledge Bots for Physics-Based Simulations Using Artificial Neural Networks

Millions of complex physics-based simulations are required for design of an aerospace vehicle. These simulations are usually performed by highly trained and skilled analysts, who execute, monitor, and steer each simulation. Analysts rely heavily on their broad experience that may have taken 20-30 years to accumulate. In addition, the simulation software is complex in nature, requiring significant computational resources. Simulations of system of systems become even more complex and are beyond human capacity to effectively learn their behavior. IBM has developed machines that can learn and compete successfully with a chess grandmaster and most successful jeopardy contestants. These machines are capable of learning some complex problems much faster than humans can learn. In this paper, we propose using artificial neural network to train knowledge bots to identify the idiosyncrasies of simulation software and recognize patterns that can lead to successful simulations. We examine the use of knowledge bots for applications of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), trajectory analysis, commercial finite-element analysis software, and slosh propellant dynamics. We will show that machine learning algorithms can be used to learn the idiosyncrasies of computational simulations and identify regions of instability without including any additional information about their mathematical form or applied discretization approaches.

Samareh, Jamshid A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Assessment of U-Net-Based Deep Learning Models for Segmenting Microfractures and Pore Spaces in Digital Rocks

Segmentation of high-resolution X-ray microcomputed tomography (µCT) images is crucial in digital rock physics (DRP), affecting the characterization and analysis of microscale phenomena in the porous media. The complexity of geological structures and nonideal scanning conditions pose significant challenges to conventional image segmentation approaches. Motivated by the recent increasing popularity of deep learning (DL) techniques in image processing, this work undertakes a comparative study of DL models, specifically U-Net and its variants, for segmenting multiple targets with distinguished features in digital rocks, including discrete fracture networks (DFNs), pore spaces, and solid rock. Particularly, DFNs have a smaller volumetric fraction over others, bringing in a substantial challenge of imbalanced segmentation. The primary focus is to evaluate the architecture and feature enhancement strategies of various DL models, including U-Net, attention U-Net, residual U-Net, U-Net++, and residual U-Net++. The models were designed as 2.5D, utilizing a central 2D image and its two adjacent upper and lower 2D images as input to provide a pseudo-3D context. In addition, because the ground truth of segmentation was unknown for real-world digital rocks, we created a benchmark data set following the inverse operations of segmentation. The data synthesis started from the label images (i.e., solid rock, pore spaces, and DFNs), followed by simulating partial volume blurring, adding random background noise, and introducing ring artifacts to mimic real raw X-ray µCT images. The data set, which included various rock types (i.e., sandstone and artificial data), scanning resolution, and magnitudes of noise and artifacts, was divided into training and testing data sets with a 90% and 10% ratio, respectively. Moreover, in addition to the conventional pixel-wise evaluation metrics, the physics-based metric of the lattice-Boltzmann method (LBM) simulated permeability provided more comprehensive assessments. The results demonstrated that the residual connections, nested architectures, and redesigned skip connections contribute to the model performance and give the residual U-Net++ the highest accuracy. The improvements were mainly on the boundaries and small targets, especially the DFNs, which dominate the interconnectivity and therefore affect the permeability greatly. This study also rigorously evaluated the efficiency and generalization of each model, demonstrating that the sophisticated architectures achieved excellent practicability and maintained robust performance on completely unseen data, ensuring their suitability for diverse and challenging DRP applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative assessment of eddy viscosity rans models for turbulent mixed convection in a differentially heated plane channel

Turbulent mixed convection between two vertical, infinite parallel plates at different temperatures is studied using various two-equation turbulence models. The numerical simulations are performed at a turbulent Reynolds number of Re τ = 150 and a Grashof number of Gr = 9.6 × 10 5 . Comparisons are made against the highly trusted DNS results. Consistent with the DNS approach, the current simulations are performed using constant properties and the Boussinesq approximation to predict the influence of buoyancy. Previous studies have provided assessments of two-equation turbulence models for various scenarios, but often rely on a qualitative “eye” test in order to determine the most appropriate model to predict a given flow. This study aims to provide a new form of quantitative assessment that accounts for both the physics captured by the turbulence model as well as the magnitude of the system response quantities (SRQ) using a modified symmetric mean absolute percent error (SMAPE) method. This method is designed to be approachable to researchers at any level and can be applied to system response quantities from multiple research fields. Uncertainty quantification is also performed to determine the discretization error for each turbulence model. Recommendations are made as to which turbulence models best capture the physics – hydrodynamically and thermally – using both local and global validation metrics. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the damping functions used in the most accurate models. This underpins the potential of model developments and adjustments most worth pursuing for buoyant flows. Finally, this framework provides a more physics-based comparative analysis of the selected turbulence models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental measurements and mathematical modeling of cold plate for aviation thermal management

Herein, this study, which has been motivated by the recent applications of the cold plate device in aviation thermal management, reports on physics-based mathematical models derived from the conservation laws of mass, momentum, and energy, and empiricism-based models. One of the objectives of the present work is to report on an elaborate and successful experimental work carried out on an additively manufactured device for the purpose of rigorously validating the numerical predictions. The excellent agreement between the numerical predictions and measured performance provides much needed confidence in the implementation, in the software package, of the offset-strip fin passage correlations, as well as in the software implementation of user-defined wavy fin correlations for aerospace heat exchangers and cold plates operating with ram air at Reynolds numbers below 8000. The contributions of this work can also be found in the development of a new and accurate thermal-hydraulic analysis procedure, referred to in this paper as plate-fin analogy. Results from this procedure are compared with those from thermal resistance network. The comparative study in this paper of the bulk and discrete enthalpy flux method is also new, as is the relative assessment of four off-set strip fin thermal-hydraulic models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A gradient-based deep neural network model for simulating multiphase flow in porous media

We report simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is crucial for the effective management of subsurface energy and environment-related activities. The numerical simulators used for modeling such processes rely on spatial and temporal discretization of the governing mass and energy balance partial-differential equations (PDEs) into algebraic systems via finite-difference/volume/element methods. These simulators usually require dedicated software development and maintenance, and suffer low efficiency from a runtime and memory standpoint for problems with multi-scale heterogeneity, coupled-physics processes or fluids with complex phase behavior. Therefore, developing cost-effective, data-driven models can become a practical choice, and in this work, we choose deep learning approaches as they can handle high dimensional data and accurately predict state variables with strong nonlinearity. In this paper, we describe a gradient-based deep neural network (GDNN) constrained by the physics related to multiphase flow in porous media. We tackle the nonlinearity of flow in porous media induced by rock heterogeneity, fluid properties, and fluid-rock interactions by decomposing the nonlinear PDEs into a dictionary of elementary differential operators. We use a combination of operators to handle rock spatial heterogeneity and fluid flow by advection. Since the augmented differential operators are inherently related to the physics of fluid flow, we treat them as first principles prior knowledge to regularize the GDNN training. We use the example of pressure management at geologic CO 2 storage sites, where CO 2 is injected in saline aquifers and brine is produced, and apply GDNN to construct a predictive model that is trained with physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. We demonstrate that GDNN can effectively predict the nonlinear patterns of subsurface responses, including the temporal and spatial evolution of the pressure and saturation plumes. We also successfully extend the GDNN to convolutional neural network (CNN), namely gradient-based CNN (GCNN), and validate its capability to improve the prediction accuracy. GDNN has great potential to tackle challenging problems that are governed by highly nonlinear physics and enable the development of data-driven models with higher fidelity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-based adaptivity of a spectral method for the Vlasov–Poisson equations based on the asymmetrically-weighted Hermite expansion in velocity space

We propose a spectral method for the 1D-1V Vlasov–Poisson system where the discretization in velocity space is based on asymmetrically-weighted Hermite functions, dynamically adapted via a scaling α and shifting u of the velocity variable. Specifically, at each time instant an adaptivity criterion selects new values of α and u based on the numerical solution of the discrete Vlasov–Poisson system obtained at that time step. Once the new values of the Hermite parameters α and u are fixed, the Hermite expansion is updated and the discrete system is further evolved for the next time step. The procedure is applied iteratively over the desired temporal interval. The key aspects of the adaptive algorithm are: the map between approximation spaces associated with different values of the Hermite parameters that preserves total mass, momentum and energy; and the adaptivity criterion to update α and u based on physics considerations relating the Hermite parameters to the average velocity and temperature of each plasma species. For the discretization of the spatial coordinate, we rely on Fourier functions and use the implicit midpoint rule for time stepping. The resulting numerical method possesses intrinsically the property of fluid-kinetic coupling, where the low-order terms of the expansion are akin to the fluid moments of a macroscopic description of the plasma, while kinetic physics is retained by adding more spectral terms. Moreover, the scheme features conservation of total mass, momentum and energy associated in the discrete, for periodic boundary conditions. A set of numerical experiments confirms that the adaptive method outperforms the non-adaptive one in terms of accuracy and stability of the numerical solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-fidelity Fourier neural operator for fast modeling of large-scale geological carbon storage

Deep learning-based surrogate models have been widely applied in geological carbon storage (GCS) problems to accelerate the prediction of reservoir pressure and CO2 plume migration. Large amounts of data from physics-based numerical simulators are required to train a model to accurately predict the complex physical behaviors associated with this process. In practice, the available training data are always limited in large-scale 3D problems due to the high computational cost. Therefore, we propose to use a multi-fidelity Fourier neural operator (FNO) to solve large-scale GCS problems with more affordable multi-fidelity training datasets. FNO has a desirable grid-invariant property, which simplifies the transfer learning procedure between datasets with different discretization. Here, we first test the model efficacy on a GCS reservoir model being discretized into 110 k grid cells. The multi-fidelity model can predict with accuracy comparable to a high-fidelity model trained with the same amount of high-fidelity data with 81% less data generation costs. We further test the generalizability of the multi-fidelity model on a same reservoir model with a finer discretization of 1 million grid cells. This case was made more challenging by employing high-fidelity and low-fidelity datasets generated by different geostatistical models and reservoir simulators. We observe that the multi-fidelity FNO model can predict pressure fields with reasonable accuracy even when the high-fidelity data are extremely limited. The findings of this study can help for better understanding of the transferability of multi-fidelity deep learning surrogate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solute effects upon dislocation motion and recovery in Mg alloys (Final Report)

The objective the research was to develop a firmer understanding of the interactions between substitutional solute atoms and dislocations within Mg alloys. These interactions govern the absolute and relative mobilities of various types of dislocations in Mg (e.g., basal < a>, non-basal < a>, and pyramidal < c+a>). Furthermore, they have an impact on dislocation recovery processes (e.g., cross-glide, climb, rearrangement, and annihilation). Ultimately, solute-dislocation interactions strongly impact a) strain hardening, b) strain rate sensitivity, c) plastic anisotropy of textured polycrystals, d) texture evolution, e) dislocation substructures evolution, and even f) recrystallization behavior. It is broadly known that Mg alloys exhibit poor low temperature formability. Since formability is largely governed by properties (a) – (c) in this list, it is critical to develop a better understanding of solute-dislocation interactions, if one hopes to improve the situation. While the theory of static solute strengthening is well developed, especially for alloys with face centered cubic (FCC) crystal structures, there are outstanding questions related to applications to hexagonal close packed (HCP) crystal structures and dynamic strain aging (DSA) in materials of various structures. DSA has far-reaching implications for metal formability and, in the case of Mg alloys, appears to correlate with the so-called rare-earth (RE) texture which has been shown to benefit formability. The Portevin-Le Chatelier (PLC) effect, and associated negative strain rate sensitivity, occur at higher temperatures (>100℃) in Mg alloys as compared with similar Al alloys, even though they have similar melting points and solute diffusivities. Our preliminary research has shown that modern, physics-based models of DSA can be tuned to describe the behavior of Mg alloys if a rather higher activation enthalpy is assumed for cross-core diffusivity. While this partially explains the delay in DSA to higher temperatures, it is also hypothesized that this delay is due in part to the intrinsically more thermally activated (rate sensitive) nature of non-basal < a> dislocation motion which is required for macroscopic flow of Mg alloys, whereas octahedral slip in many FCC metals like aluminum is essentially athermal at room temperature. It was originally proposed to employ a combination of in-situ diffraction-based experimental characterization to validate existing theory. It was envisioned to perform in-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to assess individual dislocation behavior and in-situ high-energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) techniques which were showing great promise for elucidating collective dislocation behavior, 2 including recovery, especially if the contributions to various forms of diffraction peak broadening (𝜂𝜂,𝜔𝜔,and 2𝜃𝜃) can be effectively integrated. Finally, it was envisioned to perform discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) modeling approaches to aide in the interpretation of both TEM and HEXRD experiments. In the end, mechanical tests were performed on more complex Mg alloys which exhibited evidence of dynamic strain aging, and this led to the establishment of another project. Mechanical test data obtained at McMaster University served as the basis of an assessment of the applicability of Bazinski’s “stress equivalence” theory of solute strengthening to polycrystalline alloys of Mg. Although we did not succeed in applying the approach to Mg alloys, we did develop expertise with the HEXRD approach using a BCC, β-Ti alloy and demonstrated numerous new capabilities that may be applied to any polycrystalline material in collaboration with researchers at CHESS and around the world: (1) assessment of details of the elastoplastic transition (yielding) using a combination of HEXRD and full-field polycrystal plasticity modeling, (2) the first-ever experimental observation of strong stress rotation within the individual grains of a polycrystalline material, and (3) a comprehensive analysis of the grain-level dislocation density evolution based upon diffraction peak broadening along 𝜂𝜂,𝜔𝜔,and 2𝜃𝜃 directions. This final aspect allowed us to confirm that dislocations were gliding on multiple plane types and not restricted to {110} type planes, and it also provided clues as to why some grains were unloading during straining, with surprising implications for our understanding of the effects of geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs). Finally, graduate student, Mohammed Shabana, developed a MATLAB code which confirmed the conclusions of Prof. Catalin Picu (Rensallear Polytechnic Institute, RPI) regarding the effect of solute-trapped, forest dislocations on the breaking stress of Lomer lock junctions in FCC metal alloys. He applied the same anisotropic line-tension model to a variety of dislocation junction configurations and found an inconsistency in the widely cited results of Dupuy and Fivel regarding the Hirth Lock, and he outlined an approach to extend these finding to HCP Mg alloys that we are still pursuing with discretionary fundings at UVA.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scientific machine learning for closure models in multiscale problems: A review

Here, closure problems are omnipresent when simulating multiscale systems, where some quantities and processes cannot be fully prescribed despite their effects on the simulation's accuracy. Recently, scientific machine learning approaches have been proposed as a way to tackle the closure problem, combining traditional (physics-based) modeling with data-driven (machine-learned) techniques, typically through enriching differential equations with neural networks. This paper reviews the different reduced model forms, distinguished by the degree to which they include known physics, and the different objectives of a priori and a posteriori learning. The importance of adhering to physical laws (such as symmetries and conservation laws) in choosing the reduced model form and choosing the learning method is discussed. The effect of spatial and temporal discretization and recent trends toward discretization-invariant models are reviewed. In addition, we make the connections between closure problems and several other research disciplines: inverse problems, Mori-Zwanzig theory, and multi-fidelity methods. In conclusion, much progress has been made with scientific machine learning approaches for solving closure problems, but many challenges remain. In particular, the generalizability and interpretability of learned models is a major issue that needs to be addressed further.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2010

Template Matching Approach to Signal Prediction

A new approach to signal prediction and prognostic assessment of spacecraft health resolves an inherent difficulty in fusing sensor data with simulated data. This technique builds upon previous work that demonstrated the importance of physics-based transient models to accurate prediction of signal dynamics and system performance. While models can greatly improve predictive accuracy, they are difficult to apply in general because of variations in model type, accuracy, or intended purpose. However, virtually any flight project will have at least some modeling capability at its disposal, whether a full-blown simulation, partial physics models, dynamic look-up tables, a brassboard analogue system, or simple hand-driven calculation by a team of experts. Many models can be used to develop a predict, or an estimate of the next day s or next cycle s behavior, which is typically used for planning purposes. The fidelity of a predict varies from one project to another, depending on the complexity of the simulation (i.e. linearized or full differential equations) and the level of detail in anticipated system operation, but typically any predict cannot be adapted to changing conditions or adjusted spacecraft command execution. Applying a predict blindly, without adapting the predict to current conditions, produces mixed results at best, primarily due to mismatches between assumed execution of spacecraft activities and actual times of execution. This results in the predict becoming useless during periods of complicated behavior, exactly when the predict would be most valuable. Each spacecraft operation tends to show up as a transient in the data, and if the transients are misaligned, using the predict can actually harm forecasting performance. To address this problem, the approach here expresses the predict in terms of a baseline function superposed with one or more transient functions. These transients serve as signal templates, which can be relocated in time and space against the signal background. One then has the ability to reconstruct a signal regardless of the precise timing of the transients. During operation, one applies the actual start times of spacecraft activities as they occur, and produces a reconstructed, accurate predict in real-time. This general approach is valid under two important conditions. First, the transients themselves must be time-invariant. Second, the transients must be reasonably consistent with respect to different operating points. Both of these assumptions are generally valid, but in the case of a complicated system with numerous types of overlapping transients, this approach may not be effective. Fortunately, there tend to be few transients in spacecraft telemetry of sensor quantities or low-level health and status information because these signals rarely reflect multiple different types of operation. Furthermore, if the predict is at least reasonably close to actual operation, the shift either in time, or in the operating point when the transient occurs - is likely to be small. The proposed approach considers three ways to recognize a transient. The first and most reliable is to use a different signal that identifies operating mode - often the transient will be correlated to a change in operating mode, and this change can usually be detected positively from discrete signals in spacecraft telemetry. If there is no useful mode signal, the second option is to identify the transient template by hand, and detect the onset of the transient using a curve-fitting approach. Finally, if one elects not to choose by hand, there is an option for automatic selection. This technique has been applied to sensor data from several JPL missions and industrial applications, demonstrating an improvement in accurate prediction of future behavior and early detection of system problems. This technique is applicable to practically any time-varying, quantitative sensor measurement.

Mackey, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising of several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit numerical schemes. Depending on the application, we find that different time stepping methods are optimal. Several of the time integration schemes exploit the block-based granularity of the grid structure. The framework and the adaptive algorithms enable physics based space weather modeling and even forecasting.

Toth, Gabor↗
NASA NTRS2012

Accelerated Aging in Electrolytic Capacitors for Prognostics

The focus of this work is the analysis of different degradation phenomena based on thermal overstress and electrical overstress accelerated aging systems and the use of accelerated aging techniques for prognostics algorithm development. Results on thermal overstress and electrical overstress experiments are presented. In addition, preliminary results toward the development of physics-based degradation models are presented focusing on the electrolyte evaporation failure mechanism. An empirical degradation model based on percentage capacitance loss under electrical overstress is presented and used in: (i) a Bayesian-based implementation of model-based prognostics using a discrete Kalman filter for health state estimation, and (ii) a dynamic system representation of the degradation model for forecasting and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. A leave-one-out validation methodology is used to assess the validity of the methodology under the small sample size constrain. The results observed on the RUL estimation are consistent through the validation tests comparing relative accuracy and prediction error. It has been observed that the inaccuracy of the model to represent the change in degradation behavior observed at the end of the test data is consistent throughout the validation tests, indicating the need of a more detailed degradation model or the use of an algorithm that could estimate model parameters on-line. Based on the observed degradation process under different stress intensity with rest periods, the need for more sophisticated degradation models is further supported. The current degradation model does not represent the capacitance recovery over rest periods following an accelerated aging stress period.

Celaya, Jose R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Comparison of Filter-based Approaches for Model-based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches use domain knowledge about a system and its failure modes through the use of physics-based models. Model-based prognosis is generally divided into two sequential problems: a joint state-parameter estimation problem, in which, using the model, the health of a system or component is determined based on the observations; and a prediction problem, in which, using the model, the stateparameter distribution is simulated forward in time to compute end of life and remaining useful life. The first problem is typically solved through the use of a state observer, or filter. The choice of filter depends on the assumptions that may be made about the system, and on the desired algorithm performance. In this paper, we review three separate filters for the solution to the first problem: the Daum filter, an exact nonlinear filter; the unscented Kalman filter, which approximates nonlinearities through the use of a deterministic sampling method known as the unscented transform; and the particle filter, which approximates the state distribution using a finite set of discrete, weighted samples, called particles. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we conduct a number of simulation-based experiments investigating the performance of the different algorithms as applied to prognostics.

prognostics↗