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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Moving from Information Assurance to Functional Assurance with Engineered Controls

Cyber threats to operational technology demand more than traditional IT defenses—they require full-spectrum mission assurance. Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) is an approach that embeds engineered controls into system design to ensure critical functions remain safe and reliable, even under attack. Unlike conventional cybersecurity tools, engineered controls act directly on physical processes to prevent unacceptable outcomes such as equipment damage or mission failure. This session will outline the CIE framework and share examples of consequence-based design that deliver true resilience, not just fail-safe behaviors. Attendees will learn how to integrate these principles into the engineering lifecycle to support resilient-by-design architectures and inform emerging standards. This talk sets the stage for the panel discussion on advancing CIE across sectors as digital and physical systems converge.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilient high-temperature reverse osmosis desalination membranes

Conventional thin-film composite (TFC) reverse osmosis (RO) membranes experience irreversible performance loss at high temperatures, restricting their use in industries with high-temperature streams, including oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, electronics, power generation, food production, and hybrid desalination plants. However, the mechanisms driving the performance decline of TFC membranes at high temperatures remain poorly understood. Herein, we combine controlled experiments, molecular dynamics simulations, and micromechanical modeling to elucidate TFC failure mechanisms and to evaluate thermally resilient thin-film cross-linked (TFX) composite membrane. Upon exposure to elevated temperatures (>60°C), salt rejection of TFC dropped from ~99 to <90%, with irreversible structural damage in the polysulfone layer, confirmed by scanning electron microscopy. In contrast, the TFX membrane maintained ~99% salt rejection and showed no signs of physical degradation up to 80°C. Our combined analyses revealed that TFC membrane failure arises from irreversible pore expansion in the thermoplastic polysulfone support, leading to polyamide film rupture and delamination. TFX membranes resist thermal deformation, enabling ultrahigh-temperature RO desalination and water reuse.

Wu, Jishan [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the temperature-dependent failure processes in PVD Cr-coated ZIRLO nuclear fuel cladding using in situ X-ray micro-tomography imaging

In this work, an accident tolerant fuel cladding system with Cr coating deposited using physical vapour deposition (PVD) method onto commercial Optimized ZIRLO™ was studied. The cladding tubes were machined into C-rings and loaded to failure under compression with real-time synchrotron micro-X-ray computed tomography (XCT) imaging at room temperature (RT), 345 °C, 650 °C and 950 °C in argon (Ar) atmosphere. The mechanical behaviour and failure processes were found strongly temperature-dependent where the Cr coating showed brittle fracture at RT and 345 °C, ductile fracture at 650 °C and a reversion to brittle fracture at 950 °C. Nanoindentation measurements and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging were conducted on the materials after high temperature testing. It was found that recrystallisation of the Cr coating occurred at elevated temperatures, which significantly affected its local properties hence the failure behaviour at different temperatures. This work represents the first in situ 3D XCT observation of progressive failure processes in PVD Cr-coated ZIRLO claddings up to 950 °C providing critical insights into its brittle-to-ductile transition (BDTT) behaviour and subsequent ductile-to-brittle reversion with the increase in temperature. Moreover, results are compared with other PVD Cr-coated Zircaloy materials from open literature; the influences of the coating microstructure and local properties on the failure stress/strain and fracture processes are discussed.

Yuan, Guanjie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Atomic- and Molecular-Scale Interphase Engineering for High-Performance Solid-State Batteries

Solid-state batteries (SSBs) promise a decisive advance beyond conventional Li-ion systems, yet their development remains constrained by persistent solid–solid interfacial instabilities that degrade performance and durability. Interfaces between solid electrolytes and both cathodes and Li metal often exhibit poor wettability, limited physical contact, and high charge–transfer resistance, leading to chemical decomposition, mechanical failure, and impedance growth. Overcoming these limitations requires interphase engineering with atomic-scale precision—capabilities that conventional coating methods cannot reliably deliver. Atomic layer deposition (ALD) and molecular layer deposition (MLD) uniquely meet this need by enabling ultrathin, conformal, and composition-tunable films that stabilize reactive surfaces, suppress parasitic reactions, and regulate Li-metal morphology. Importantly, this Perspective highlights ALD/MLD systems that have already demonstrated effectiveness in liquid-electrolyte cells and discusses how these validated strategies can be deliberately translated to solid-state architectures. By grounding future directions in experimentally proven concepts rather than speculative hypotheses, we outline how atomic- and molecular-scale design principles can accelerate the development of robust, high-performance SSB technologies.

atomic and molecular layer deposition↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale fatigue crack initiation in hierarchical additively manufactured alloys

Bioinspired hierarchical microstructures offer a route toward engineered fatigue resistance in additively manufactured alloys. However, it remains unclear how discrete structural constituents independently govern damage accumulation, particularly during the critical fatigue initiation regime where short cracks strongly interact with local microstructure. Here, we investigate multiscale fatigue initiation in a dual-phase, nanolamellar AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 high-entropy alloy. By comparing microscale specimens that isolate the nanolamellar structure against macroscale specimens containing the full melt-pool architecture, we identify size-dependent fatigue initiation mechanisms. We find that failure is dictated by nanolamellar interfaces at the microscale, whereas mesoscale melt pool boundaries serve to initiate fatigue at the macroscale. This mechanistic shift is accompanied by a transition from macroscale quasi-brittle failure to microscale plasticity-driven crack extension. Our results provide a physical framework for understanding how structural hierarchy governs the transition from discrete microstructural deformation to continuum fatigue fracture behavior, informing the design of damage-tolerant, additively manufactured alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring uranium oxidation in glue vapor to help avoid catastrophic slivers on NIF targets

Depleted uranium (DU) hohlraums are utilized for indirect drive fusion experiments at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The production process for DU hohlraums is intricate, involving complex sputtering, machining, and leaching techniques. Achieving low-stress and defect-free hohlraums presents significant challenges. Recent failures have revealed that some uranium flakes, known as slivers, detach from the diagnostic windows and fall onto the capsule. These catastrophic failures were observed only after target assembly, leading to the hypothesis that oxidation of the DU by glue vapor might be the cause. A study investigating the impact of glue vapor on DU hohlraums found that spallation occurred in three out of seven sample hohlraums after three weeks. The slivers observed in these samples were consistent with those seen in assembled targets. This marks the first experimental reproduction of such catastrophic slivering failures. Consequently, future studies can now focus on sliver mitigation and the precise diagnosis of the failure mode.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Success Path Method: Introduction to the Success Path Method Software Tool©

As part of its commitment to advancing safety and reliability assessment methodologies, Argonne National Laboratory pioneered the use of an evaluation method called the Success Path Method (SPM) to improve risk management for offshore oil and gas operations. The development of the SPM at Argonne has been driven by the need to improve existing risk assessment methodologies by focusing on the steps necessary for success rather than failure modes alone. This is particularly important for industrial environments like offshore facilities that perform multiple functions under a continuously evolving set of operational conditions – such as water depth and temperature, currents, and weather conditions. In these dynamic environments, the traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) approach is far too complex as it focuses on what can go wrong – which comprises an infinite failure space that must be fully explored and understood. By shifting the focus to a finite space of success paths, the SPM enables operators and decision makers to prioritize a manageable number of steps that must go right to ensure success. Building on its five decades of experience in safety assessments for the nuclear industry, Argonne made major adaptations to existing risk assessment methods utilizing features similar to fault trees that are traditionally used in PRA to map all pathways in which the system can malfunction. In contrast, SPM identifies the components and processes that must function correctly to achieve specific outcomes – such as preventing the uncontrolled release of hydrocarbons during drilling operations. The SPM framework integrates equipment, procedures, software, processes, and human actions to ensure that physical barriers meet critical safety functions in dynamic operational conditions. This approach helps identify failure modes and improve operational risk management by narrowing the focus to key success elements, which in turn reduces uncertainty and helps users understand, manage, and respond to failures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of Oil Viscosity and Impact of Ionic Liquid Additive on Electrically Induced Pitting in Rolling Contact

Electrically induced bearing damage (EIBD) is a growing concern in electric drivetrains, where electrical discharge currents generate localized pitting that accelerates wear and premature failure. While ionic liquids (ILs) have shown promise as lubricant additives due to their natural physical adsorption, strong capabilities of tribofilm formation, and high molecular tunability, their role in mitigating EIBD is little known. This gap is especially evident because lubricant viscosity and film thickness affect discharge behavior, and additive performance in these regimes has not been well explored. In this study, tribological tests were performed using a ball-on-disk pure rolling-contact system under an applied voltage on polyalphaolefin oils of three viscosities (4, 10, and 150 cSt measured at 100 °C), with and without the addition of a phosphonium-phosphate IL. Surface damage was analyzed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and stylus profilometry. Damage quantification was based on pit morphology analysis of SEM images. The results provide new insights into how oil viscosity governs the discharge behavior and how an IL additive could influence the pit formation. While viscosity seems to play a significant role, an IL additive shows potential to reduce EIBD and deserves further study.

electrically induced bearing damage (EIBD)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fuel Performance Evaluation of THOR-C Experiments

The Temperature Heatsink Overpower Response Commissioning (THOR-C) and THOR-Metal (THOR-M) experiments will be performed as part of an ongoing project for testing sodium fast reactor fuels with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The THOR-C experiments consist of fresh metallic fuel pins and have been analyzed using the ABAQUS, Ansys codes and the BISON fuel performance code. THOR-M-Loss of Flow-1 (THOR-M-LOF-1) is designed to test an EBR-II irradiated fuel pin under LOF conditions. Simulation of the THOR-MLOF-1 experiment required first simulating the base irradiation of the fuel pin in EBR-II. MFUEL module of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 [1] is a physics-based metallic fuel performance model applicable to the normal operation, transient scenarios and fuel failure modeling including scenarios with bulk fuel melting. The model has been validated using EBR-II normal operation, separate effect transient tests as well as TREAT M-Series transient tests [2]. In this study, MFUEL models has been utilized together with a new capsule heat transfer model developed in this project. The new heat transfer model was necessary due to (1) significant amount of heat losses that required 2D heat transfer, (2) the presence of a titanium heat sink, rejecting a significant amount of heat, and (3) stagnant coolant conditions, which are inconsistent with SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) heat transfer model. Updates to SAS4A/SASSYS-1 and MFUEL has been described below, followed by a preliminary validation effort using the results from THOR-C-2 fresh fuel capsule experiment. A previous study for THOR-C-2 analysis using BISON code is also utilized in this study to model this test [3]. [1] D. O’Grady, A. J. Brunett, L. Ibarra, A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. S. Sumner, R. Thomas, T. H. Fanning, “The SAS4A/SASSYS-2 Version 5.7 Safety Analysis Code System,” Argonne National Laboratory,ANL/NSE-SAS/5.7, (2023). [2] A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. Fanning, D. O’Grady, “Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1,” Argonne National Laboratory, ANL/NSE-23/11, (2023). [3] M. Mihelish, A. Zabriskie, K. Paaren, P. Medvedev, C. Jensen, “Fuel Performance Predictions for the TREAT THOR-C Experiments,” Idaho National Laboratory, INL/RPT-23-73397, Revision 0, (2023)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis, Processing, and Use of Isotopically Enriched Epitaxial Oxide Thin Films

Isotopic engineering has emerged as a key approach to study the nucleation, diffusion, phase transitions, and reactions of materials at an atomic level. It aims to uncover mass transport pathways, kinetics, and operational and failure mechanisms of functional materials and devices. Understanding these phenomena leads to deeper insights into important physical processes, such as the transport of ions in energy conversion and storage devices and the role of active sites and supports during heterogeneous catalytic reactions. Likewise, isotopic engineering is being pursued as a means of modifying functionality to enable future technological applications. In this Account, we summarize our recent work employing isotope labeling (e.g., 18 O 2 and 57 Fe) during thin film synthesis and postgrowth processing to reveal growth mechanisms, defect chemistry, and elemental diffusion under working and extreme conditions. Isotope-resolved analysis techniques with nanometer-scale spatial resolution, such as time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography, facilitate the accurate quantification of isotopic placement and concentration in our well-defined heterostructures with precisely positioned, isotope-enriched layers. By measuring the nanometer-scale redistribution between natural abundance and isotopically enriched oxygen layers during the deposition of Fe 2 O 3 and Cr 2 O 3 by molecular beam epitaxy, we identified intermixing processes driven by surface adatoms occurring both at the film growth surface and within the first few layers below the surface. Further insights into synthesis mechanisms were gained by studying the tungsten oxide thin films grown by evaporating WO 3 powder in the presence of background 18 O 2 , revealing minimal incorporation of background oxygen during the film formation process. Thermal and radiation-enhanced diffusion in epitaxial Fe and Cr oxides were precisely tracked using 18 O and 57 Fe tracer layers incorporated into model epitaxial oxide thin films. This approach has allowed us to access thermal diffusion behavior at lower temperatures than previously measured, revealing a potential changeover in diffusion mechanism. Understanding radiation-enhanced diffusion in model oxides that represent the surface layers on the structural components of nuclear reactors informs our understanding of their corrosion behavior under irradiation. Isotopic labeling can also provide unique insights into the surface exchange reactions and defect chemistry of electrocatalysts. For instance, tracking the change in 18 O concentration at the surface of an epitaxial LaNiO 3 thin film after the electrocatalytic oxygen evolution reaction revealed the participation of lattice oxygen, confirming a hypothesis that had been proposed previously. Lastly, we highlight a new direction wherein we perform in situ processing studies utilizing isotopic tracers in conjunction with model epitaxial thin films within the atom probe tomography instrument. Additionally, this Account illustrates the great potential of isotopic engineering to enable fundamental mechanistic insights into physical processes and engineer functional properties in epitaxial films, heterostructures, and superlattices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI1991

Physical and Operational Status of the Photovoltaic Systems in the Municipality of Pinotepa de Don Luis, Oaxaca, One Year after Their Installation [Estado fisico y operativo de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en el municipio de Pinotepa de Don Luis, Oaxaca un ano despues de su instalacion]

In November 1990, an inspection visit was made to the residential lighting photovoltaic systems that had been installed approximately one year before in the rural communities of the Municipality of Pinotepa de Don Luis, in the State of Oaxaca. The main purpose of the visit was to evaluate the physical and operational status of these systems. The systems typically consist of a photovoltaic module with a capacity of 30 or 35 Watts, an automotive type battery, an indicator of the status of charge of the battery, 3 fluorescent lamps and the corresponding installation, including cables, connection or outlet box and switches. It can be seen that the systems are in good physical condition and do not show any signs of intentionally caused damage. However, the incidence of failures is higher than what had been expected; therefore the operational status of these systems is considered to be below a level that could be accepted, with a tendency to getting worse. The main problem that has been detected is the lack of automatic charge controllers. This problem has caused other important failures. Serious deficiencies were appreciated in the installations, which show evidence of the poor workmanship of the installers. The lack of system standardization is evident, both regarding the components and the installation. As a consequence, there are technical factors which indicate that the installed systems will keep deteriorating at a rate faster than normal, and will stop operating in a short time unless urgent preventive and corrective measures are taken. The attitude of the users with respect to the systems is generally positive. However, there are elements that make the correct operation and maintenance of these systems a very difficult task. The users did not receive any training regarding the best way to operate and take care of their systems, nor any other information in relation to their technical limitations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physical Interpretation of Early Battery Life Prediction Models

Early battery life prediction models are most useful for R&D if they help us understand the early changes in battery electrochemical response that correspond with long-term degradation and failure. Linear regression models such as Fused lasso and Partial Least Squares can fit coefficients directly to high-dimensional electrochemical data like capacity-voltage and ΔV–state-of-charge, i.e., Q(V) and ΔV(SOC) curves, learning coefficients that can be physically interpreted. We leverage the ISU-ILCC battery aging data set to learn high-dimensional coefficients for early battery life prediction from traditional slow-rate capacity check data, demonstrating learning on Q(V), d Q· d V −1 , and ΔV(SOC) curves. A thorough study on the dependence of coefficient values on train/test size and data preprocessing methods is made, demonstrating the reliability of high-dimensional regression approaches unless very small amounts of data are used for model training. For this data set, coefficients from Q(V) and d Q· d V −1 models highlight changes in electrode stoichiometry due to lithium loss, while ΔV(SOC) coefficients highlight changes in positive electrode diffusivity due to particle cracking as well as electrode stoichiometry shifts. By directly interpreting the coefficients of a regression model, we make physical insights into battery degradation mechanisms without requiring the assumptions of traditional battery data analysis methods.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hands-On, Heads-Up: Blending Cyber T&E with Data Science-Driven Training in Jupyter Notebooks

In an era of increasingly sophisticated threats to critical infrastructure, cybersecurity professionals must be more than just aware; they must be immersed, agile, and equipped to operate in environments where failure is not an option. Nowhere is this truer than in the nuclear sector, where cyber-physical systems, regulatory scrutiny, and insider threat potential demand a new generation of hands-on, technically fluent defenders. This paper presents a unified training approach that integrates Cybersecurity Test and Evaluation (T&E) with data science techniques using Jupyter Notebooks as the interactive lab environment. The program centers on a modular, scenario-driven curriculum designed to build not just knowledge but practical capability in the assessment and defense of radiation detection systems, firmware interfaces, and operational security postures.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Strain and Failure of a Knot in Polyethylene Using Molecular Dynamics with Machine-Learned Potentials

A neural network potential (NNP) has been developed by fitting to ab initio electronic structure data on hydrocarbons and is used to study failure of linear and knotted polyethylene (PE) chains. A linear PE chain must be highly strained before breaking as the stress is equally distributed across the chain. In contrast, the stress in a PE chain with a 31 or overhand knot, accumulates at the knot’s entrance/exit. We find the strain energy is greatest when the bond length and angle are strained simultaneously, and that the knot weakens the chain by increasing the variance of the C–C–C angle, thereby allowing rupture at lower bond strains. Here, we extend our analysis to both 51 and 52 knots and find that both break at the entrance/exit of a loop. Notably, molecular scale PE knots exhibit many of the same characteristics as knots in a macroscopic rope, with stick–slip phenomena upon tightening and similar points of failure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Federated Learning for Efficient Condition Monitoring and Anomaly Detection in Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems

Detecting and localizing anomalies in cyber-physical systems (CPS) has become increasingly challenging as systems grow in complexity, particularly due to varying sensor reliability and node failures in distributed environments. While federated learning (FL) offers a foundation for distributed model training, existing approaches lack mechanisms to handle these CPS-specific challenges. This paper presents an enhanced FL framework that introduces three key innovations: adaptive model aggregation based on sensor reliability, dynamic node selection for resource optimization, and Weibull-based checkpointing for fault tolerance. Our framework enables reliable condition monitoring while addressing the computational and reliability challenges of industrial CPS deployments. Experiments on NASA Bearing and Hydraulic System Datasets demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art FL methods, achieving 99.5% AUC-ROC in anomaly detection and maintaining accuracy under node failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney (U) test confirms significant improvements (p < 0.05) in both detection accuracy and computational efficiency across diverse operational scenarios.1

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗