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Mission Design and Optimal Asteroid Deflection for Planetary Defense

Planetary defense is a topic of increasing interest for many reasons, which has been mentioned in "Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022''. However, perhaps one of the most significant rationales for asteroid studies is the number of close approaches that have been documented recently. A space mission with a planetary defense objective aims to deflect the threatening body as far as possible from Earth. The design of a mission that optimally deflects an asteroid has different challenges: speed, precision, and system trade-off. This work addresses such issues and develops a fast transcription of the problem that can be implemented into an optimization tool, which allows for a broader trade study of different mission concepts with a medium fidelity. Such work is suitable for a mission?s preliminary study. It is shown, using the fictitious asteroid impact scenario 2017 PDC, that the complete tool is able to account for the orbit sensitivity to small perturbations and quickly optimize a deflection trajectory. The speed in which the tool operates allows for a trade study between the available hardware. As a result, key deflection dates and mission strategies are identified for the 2017 PDC.

Planetary defense↗

Mission Design and Optimal Asteroid Deflection for Planetary Defense

Planetary defense is a topic of increasing interest for many reasons, which has been mentioned in "Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022". However, perhaps one of the most significant rationales for asteroid studies is the number of close approaches that have been documented recently. A space mission with a planetary defense objective aims to deflect the threatening body as far as possible from Earth. The design of a mission that optimally deflects an asteroid has different challenges: speed, precision, and system trade-off. This work addresses such issues and develops a fast transcription of the problem that can be implemented into an optimization tool, which allows for a broader trade study of different mission concepts with a medium fidelity. Such work is suitable for a mission's preliminary study. It is shown, using the fictitious asteroid impact scenario 2017 PDC, that the complete tool is able to account for the orbit sensitivity to small perturbations and quickly optimize a deflection trajectory. The speed in which the tool operates allows for a trade study between the available hardware. As a result, key deflection dates and mission strategies are identified for the 2017 PDC.

Trajectory optimization↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, James O.↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗

Achieving Improved Reliability with Failure Analysis

Reliability is the ability of a product to properly function, within specified performance limits, for a specified period of time, under the life cycle application conditions. Failure analysis is a vital tool in the effort to ensure reliability of electronic products and systems throughout their product lifecycle. Today, organizations involved in activities within the electronics supply chain are facing new challenges, not just from complex assembly styles, harsher lifecycle environments, and sophisticated supply chains, but also from customers who are demanding a quicker turn-around. Unfortunately, root cause failure analysis is often performed incompletely, leading to a poor understanding of failure mechanisms and causes and, customer dissatisfaction due to recurring failures. The PDC starts with an introduction to reliability concepts, physics of failure and an overview of failure mechanisms that affect PCBs, PCBAs and components. The PDC then dives into root cause hypothesizing techniques (Pareto, FMEA, fishbone, FTA), non-destructive and destructive analysis and, materials characterization will be discussed. Numerous failure analysis case studies will be used to illustrate the techniques and analysis principles to arrive at the root cause(s) of field failures on printed circuit boards, active components, and assemblies. What Will You Learn: Topics include: Overview of Reliability Concepts Failure mechanisms of electronic products Root cause analysis Failure analysis techniques -Non-destructive techniques (optical, CSAM etc.) -Destructive analysis (DPA, Decap, FIB etc.) -Materials characterization (XRF, EDS, TMA/DSC etc.) Who Will Benefit: Reliability engineers, failure analysis engineers, engineering managers, design engineers, component engineers, quality assurance functions and, personnel involved with reliability activities within their company.

non-destructive techniques↗

Achieving Improved Reliability with Failure Analysis

Reliability is the ability of a product to properly function, within specified performance limits, for a specified period of time, under the life cycle application conditions. Failure analysis is a vital tool in the effort to ensure reliability of electronic products and systems throughout their product lifecycle. Today, organizations involved in activities within the electronics supply chain are facing new challenges, not just from complex assembly styles, harsher lifecycle environments, and sophisticated supply chains, but also from customers who are demanding a quicker turn-around. Unfortunately, root cause failure analysis is often performed incompletely, leading to a poor understanding of failure mechanisms and causes and, customer dissatisfaction due to recurring failures. The PDC (Professional Development Course) starts with an introduction to reliability concepts, physics of failure and an overview of failure mechanisms that affect PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards), PCBAs (Printed Circuit Board Assembly) and components. The PDC then dives into root cause hypothesizing techniques (Pareto, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis), fishbone (Cause-And-Effect Diagram), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis)), non-destructive and destructive analysis and, materials characterization will be discussed. Numerous failure analysis case studies will be used to illustrate the techniques and analysis principles to arrive at the root cause(s) of field failures on printed circuit boards, active components, and assemblies. What Attendees will Learn: Topics include: Overview of Reliability Concepts Failure mechanisms of electronic products Root cause analysis Failure analysis techniques -Non-destructive techniques (optical, CSAM (Confocal Scanning Electron Microscopy) etc.) -Destructive analysis (DPA (Destructive Physical Analysis), Decap (Decapsulation), FIB (Focused Ion Beam) etc.) -Materials characterization (XRF (X-Ray Fluorescence) , EDS (Error Detection Sequential), TMA/DSC (Thermal Mechanical Analysis/Differential Scanning Calorimetry) etc.)

PCB quality↗

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗

Evacuation and Shelter Plans for Asteroid Impacts

Lessons from Analogs - Hurricanes - Forecasting in time to take action - Large scale evacuations - Risk tolerance - Nuclear Explosions - Effects of large blast waves - Shelters - Fatality rates Application to Asteroid Impacts - PDC 2021: small, little warning, poorly constrained - PDC 2023: large, well characterized

ATAP↗

A Review of Direct Ink Writing of Polymer Derived Ceramics

With the growing demand for materials capable of withstanding extreme temperatures and pressures, ceramic components with exceptional corrosion resistance and reliable mechanical properties have experienced a significant surge in demand. However, traditional ceramic forming methods involve high-temperatures and energy-intensive processes that often struggle to produce complex parts or composites efficiently. Polymer-Derived Ceramics (PDCs) offer a transformative solution by using polymeric precursors that can be converted into a wide variety of silicon-based and non-silicon-based ceramics through heat treatment. The polymeric nature of PDC precursors enables the fabrication of geometrically intricate components using conventional polymer-forming techniques at significantly lower processing temperatures. Furthermore, PDCs are well-suited for additive manufacturing (AM), allowing the production of complex structural and functional components through cost-effective, low-temperature processes. By leveraging the diverse properties of PDC materials – each with unique advantages and limitations – manufacturers can optimise performance for specific applications. This review provides an overview of the types of PDCs developed to date and their broad range of applications. Specifically, it delves into the Direct Ink Writing (DIW) process, exploring its rheological requirements and the critical role of fillers in tailoring the rheological properties of polymeric precursors to meet the specific demands of DIW.

Victoria Bishop↗

Risk Assessment for Asteroid Impact Threat Scenarios

Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.

SMD↗

Special Pyrheliometer Shroud Development

To insure that the insolation values accurately represent the input power to a power conversion unit the field of view (FOV) of the concentrator aperture and the insolation radiometer must be the same. The calculations, implementation, and results of this approach are covered. Three instruments were used to measure the insolation: an Eppley Normal Incidence Radiometer (NIP) and two versions of the kendall cavity radiometer. The shrouds used to limit the FOV of the radiometers were designed to simulate the FOV of the PDC-1 concentrater with the cold water cavity calorimeter. This technique of matching the FOV of an insolation radiometer to the FOV of a specific concentrater and receiver aperture appears to be both practical and effective. The efficiency of a power conversion unit will be too low if the insolation is measured with a radiometer which has a FOV which is larger than the FOV of the concentrator.

Dennison, E. W.↗

Dam Failure Inundation Map Project

At the end of the first year, we remain on schedule. Property owners were identified and contacted for land access purposes. A prototype software package has been completed and was demonstrated to the Division of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), National Weather Service (NWS) and Pacific Disaster Center (PDC). A field crew gathered data and surveyed the areas surrounding two dams in Waimea. (A field report is included in the annual report.) Data sensitivity analysis was initiated and completed. A user's manual has been completed. Beta testing of the software was initiated, but not completed. The initial TNK and property owner data collection for the additional test sites on Oahu and Kauai have been initiated.

Johnson, Carl↗

Study of Fluid Flow Control In Protein Crystallization Using Strong Magnetic Fields

An important component in biotechnology, particularly in the area of protein engineering and rational drug design is the knowledge of the precise three-dimensional molecular structure of proteins. The quality of structural information obtained from X-ray diffraction methods is directly dependent on the degree of perfection of the protein crystals. As a consequence, the growth of high quality macromolecular crystals for diffraction analyses has been the central focus for biochemists, biologists, and bioengineers. Macromolecular crystals are obtained from solutions that contain the crystallizing species in equilibrium with higher aggregates, ions, precipitants, other possible phases of the protein, foreign particles, the walls of the container, and a likely host of other impurities. By changing transport modes in general, i.e., reduction of convection and sedimentation, as is achieved in 'microgravity', researchers have been able to dramatically affect the movement and distribution of macromolecules in the fluid, and thus their transport, formation of crystal nuclei, and adsorption to the crystal surface. While a limited number of high quality crystals from space flights have been obtained, as the recent National Research Council (NRC) review of the NASA microgravity crystallization program pointed out, the scientific approach and research in crystallization of proteins has been mainly empirical yielding inconclusive results. We postulate that we can reduce convection in ground-based experiments and we can understand the different aspects of convection control through the use of strong magnetic fields and field gradients. Whether this limited convection in a magnetic field will provide the environment for the growth of high quality crystals is still a matter of conjecture that our research will address. The approach exploits the variation of fluid magnetic susceptibility with concentration for this purpose and the convective damping is realized by appropriately positioning the crystal growth cell so that the magnetic susceptibility force counteracts terrestrial gravity. The general objective is to test the hypothesis of convective control using a strong magnetic field and magnetic field gradient and to understand the nature of the various forces that come into play. Specifically we aim to delineate causative factors and to quantify them through experiments, analysis and numerical modeling. Once the basic understanding is obtained, the study will focus on testing the hypothesis on proteins of pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDC), proteins E1 and E3. Obtaining high crystal quality of these proteins is of great importance to structural biologists since their structures need to be determined.

Ramachandran, N.↗

Study of Fluid Flow Control in Protein Crystallization using Strong Magnetic Fields

An important component in biotechnology, particularly in the area of protein engineering and rational drug design is the knowledge of the precise three-dimensional molecular structure of proteins. The quality of structural information obtained from X-ray diffraction methods is directly dependent on the degree of perfection of the protein crystals. As a consequence, the growth of high quality macromolecular crystals for diffraction analyses has been the central focus for biochemists, biologists, and bioengineers. Macromolecular crystals are obtained from solutions that contain the crystallizing species in equilibrium with higher aggregates, ions, precipitants, other possible phases of the protein, foreign particles, the walls of the container, and a likely host of other impurities. By changing transport modes in general, i.e., reduction of convection and sedimentation, as is achieved in "microgravity", researchers have been able to dramatically affect the movement and distribution of macromolecules in the fluid, and thus their transport, formation of crystal nuclei, and adsorption to the crystal surface. While a limited number of high quality crystals from space flights have been obtained, as the recent National Research Council (NRC) review of the NASA microgravity crystallization program pointed out, the scientific approach and research in crystallization of proteins has been mainly empirical yielding inconclusive results. We postulate that we can reduce convection in ground-based experiments and we can understand the different aspects of convection control through the use of strong magnetic fields and field gradients. Whether this limited convection in a magnetic field will provide the environment for the growth of high quality crystals is still a matter of conjecture that our research will address. The approach exploits the variation of fluid magnetic susceptibility with concentration for this purpose and the convective damping is realized by appropriately positioning the crystal growth cell so that the magnetic susceptibility force counteracts terrestrial gravity. The general objective is to test the hypothesis of convective control using a strong magnetic field and magnetic field gradient and to understand the nature of the various forces that come into play. Specifically we aim to delineate causative factors and to quantify them through experiments, analysis and numerical modeling. Once the basic understanding is obtained, the study will focus on testing the hypothesis on proteins of pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDC), proteins E1 and E3. Obtaining high crystal quality of these proteins is of great importance to structural biologists since their structures need to be determined. Specific goals for the investigation are: 1. To develop an understanding of convection control in diamagnetic fluids with concentration gradients through experimentation and numerical modeling. Specifically solutal buoyancy driven convection due to crystal growth will be considered. 2. To develop predictive measures for successful crystallization in a magnetic field using analyses and numerical modeling for use in future protein crystal growth experiments. This will establish criteria that can be used to estimate the efficacy of magnetic field flow damping on crystallization of candidate proteins. 3. To demonstrate the understanding of convection damping by high magnetic fields to a class of proteins that is of interest and whose structure is as yet not determined. 4. To compare quantitatively, the quality of the grown crystals with and without a magnetic field. X-ray diffraction techniques will be used for the comparative studies. In a preliminary set of experiments, we studied crystal dissolution effects in a 5 Tesla magnet available at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Using a Schlieren setup, a 1mm crystal of Alum (Aluminum-Potassium Sulfate) was introduced in a 75% saturated solution and the resulting dissolution plume was observed. The experiment was conducted both in the presence and absence of a magnetic field gradient. The magnet produces a gradient field of approx. 1 Tesla2/cm. Image analysis of the recorded images indicated an enhanced plume velocity that was of the order of the measurement limit. For this experiment, both the gradient and gravity fields are in the same direction resulting in an enhanced effective gravity that tends to accelerate the observed plume velocity. While the results are not conclusive, pending further tests, it clearly points out the inadequacy of the MSFC magnet for conducting protein crystallization experiments and the need for a stronger magnet. In spacebased experiments, however, where the gravitational effects are small, only a weak magnetic field will be required to control or mitigate the effects of convective contamination.

Ramachandran, Narayanan↗

Preprocessor that Enables the Use of GridProTM Grids for Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Code TURBO

A preprocessor for the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code TURBO has been developed and tested. The preprocessor converts grids produced by GridPro (Program Development Company (PDC)) into a format readable by TURBO and generates the necessary input files associated with the grid. The preprocessor also generates information that enables the user to decide how to allocate the computational load in a multiple block per processor scenario.

Shyam, Vikram↗

Los Alamos RAGE Simulations of the HAIV Mission Concept

The mitigation of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) can be accomplished by a variety of methods including kinetic impactors, gravity tractors and several nuclear explosion options. Depending on the available lead time prior to Earth impact, non- nuclear options can be very effective at altering a PHOs orbit. However if the warning time is short nuclear options are generally deemed most effective at mitigating the hazard. The NIAC mission concept for a nuclear mission has been presented at several meetings, including the last PDC (2013).We use the adaptive mesh hydrocode RAGE to perform detailed simulations of this Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) mission concept. We use the RAGE code to simulate the crater formation by the kinetic impactor as well as the explosion and energy coupling from the follower nuclear explosive device (NED) timed to detonate below the original surface to enhance the energy coupling. The RAGE code has been well validated for a wide variety of applications. A parametric study will be shown of the energy and momentum transfer to the target 100 m diameter object: 1) the HAIV mission as planned; 2) a surface explosion and 3) a subsurface (contained) explosion; both 2) and 3) use the same source energy as 1).Preliminary RAGE simulations show that the kinetic impactor will carve out a surface crater on the object and the subsequent NED explosion at the bottom of the crater transfers energy and momentum to the target effectively moving it off its Earth crossing orbit. Figure 1 shows the initial (simplified) RAGE 2D setup geometry for this study. Figure 2 shows the crater created by the kinetic impactor and Figure 3 shows the time sequence of the energy transfer to the target by the NED.

Asteroid Mitigation↗

Near Earth Asteroid Characterization for Threat Assessment

Physical characteristics of NEAs are an essential input to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry and to assess the risk of impact but determining these properties requires a non-trivial investment of time and resources. The characteristics relevant to these models include size, density, strength and ablation coefficient. Some of these characteristics cannot be directly measured, but rather must be inferred from related measurements of asteroids and/or meteorites. Furthermore, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA Ames Research Center has developed a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model in order to assess the risk of asteroid impact. Our PAIR model and its use to develop probability distributions of impact risk are discussed in other contributions to PDC 2017 (e.g., Mathias et al.). Here we utilize PAIR to investigate which NEA characteristics are important for assessing the impact threat by investigating how changes in these characteristics alter the damage predicted by PAIR. We will also provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge of the NEA characteristics of importance for asteroid threat assessment. The relative importance of different properties as identified using PAIR will be combined with our assessment of the current state of knowledge to identify potential high impact investigations. In addition, we will discuss an ongoing effort to collate the existing measurements of NEA properties of interest to the planetary defense community into a readily accessible database.

Asteroid characterization↗