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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data

New launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure rates in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment - PRA. This is because PRAs typically model a mature vehicle where a significant portion of the early failure probability contributors have been eliminated due to testing and improvements after actual field operation. To capture a more accurate early flight failure probability estimate, this paper develops a method that estimates ascent failure probability starting with the first flight based on historical launch vehicle records. With new launch vehicles being developed, such as the Space Launch System - SLS, a PRA model must be extended to cover early flight failure probability contributions that are either not covered in the mature-vehicle PRA or are underestimated. These failure probability contributions include design errors, quality control deficiencies, installation errors, and environmental impacts. There are also failure dependencies due to systemic errors that still exist due to limited entire-system testing.

Cross, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Kepler Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities for Data Release 25

This document is very similar to KSCI-19092-003, Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities, which describes the previous release of the astrophysical positional probabilities for Data Release 24. The important changes for Data Release 25 are:1. The computation of the astrophysical positional probabilities uses the Data Release 25 processed pixel data for all Kepler Objects of Interest.2. Computed probabilities now have associated uncertainties, whose computation is described in x4.1.3.3. The scene modeling described in x4.1.2 uses background stars detected via ground-based high-resolution imaging, described in x5.1, that are not in the Kepler Input Catalog or UKIRT catalog. These newly detected stars are presented in Appendix B. Otherwise the text describing the algorithms and examples is largely unchanged from KSCI-19092-003.

APP↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Integration of a Conflict Probabilities Service for Upper Class E Traffic Management

This paper outlines the development and integration of a conflict probability calculation-based service designed for Upper Class E Airspace operations. A key aspect of this effort is the integration of the conflict probability calculation algorithm into a simulated situational awareness client application. This application serves as a tool for flight operators to submit operations for Upper Class E Airspace within a simulated environment. The focus is on validating the effectiveness of the service through simulated intentional conflicting scenarios. The paper delves into the practicalities of integrating the conflict probability service into the user interface of the simulated situational awareness client application. This integration aims to enhance the decision-making capabilities of ETM operators within the simulated environment. The experiments and observations conducted in this simulated facility provide insights into the operational effectiveness of the proposed approach. In conclusion, this paper emphasizes the development, integration, and simulation-based validation of a conflict probability calculation service for Upper Class E Airspace. The findings underscore the potential impact of our approach on decision-making within a simulated setting, contributing to the understanding of its practical applications in operational scenarios.

Upper Class E Traffic Management↗
DOE OSTI2026

Asymptotic inconsistency of the cumulative algorithm for laser-induced damage probability analysis

The “cumulative algorithm” is a data analysis method that has been proposed to provide an objective, nonparametric determination of laser-induced damage probability as a function of fluence from experimental data that contain both damaged sites and undamaged sites (i.e., 1-on-1 or S-on-1 testing protocols). In this work, the limitations of this approach are explored by considering the asymptotic limit of a large number of test sites. It is shown that the cumulative algorithm does not converge to the true probability distribution and significantly underestimates the damage probability near the damage onset. Here, based on the results of this work, the cumulative algorithm is not recommended for accurate estimation of damage probability.

Computational methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Differential Seismic Phase Detection Probability as a Potential Discriminant of Explosions and Earthquakes

Deep learning models trained to estimate the probability of seismic P and S phases are rapidly expanding the scale of local event detections. Here, we evaluate the potential for deep learning model output phase detection probabilities to contribute to event‐type classification, particularly discrimination of single‐fired borehole explosions and earthquakes at local distances (<300 km). Motivated by the empirical success of P/S amplitude ratios, we consider the difference between P and S pick probability output from previously developed phase detection models, P prob −S prob ⁠, as a discriminant. Test data include M L ∼1–4 earthquakes and explosions observed by common seismographs in ten geologically diverse localities. Depending on the picking model and training data, binary classification using P prob −S prob with at least three stations can achieve approximately equivalent classification accuracy as P/S amplitude ratios without requiring any customization. Joint classification with P/S and P prob −S prob improves accuracy for most quality control scenarios. Pick probabilities are an efficient attribute to consider in explosion discrimination because they can be automated byproducts of event detection. They avoid the binary choice of picking or not picking weakly visible S waves common to explosions.

Duan, Chenglong [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United S↗
NASA NTRS1972

Probability of satellite collision

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Mccarter, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Guide star probabilities

Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

Soneira, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1957

Statistical Study of Aircraft Icing Probabilities at the 700- and 500- Millibar Levels over Ocean Areas in the Northern Hemisphere

A statistical study is made of icing data reported from weather reconnaissance aircraft flown by Air Weather Service (USAF). The weather missions studied were flown at fixed flight levels of 500 millibars (18,000 ft) and 700 millibars (10,000 ft) over wide areas of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. This report is presented as part of a program conducted by the NACA to obtain extensive icing statistics relevant to aircraft design and operation. The thousands of in-flight observations recorded over a 2- to 4-year period provide reliable statistics on icing encounters for the specific areas, altitudes, and seasons included in the data. The relative frequencies of icing occurrence are presented, together with the estimated icing probabilities and the relation of these probabilities to the frequencies of flight in clouds and cloud temperatures. The results show that aircraft operators can expect icing probabilities to vary widely throughout the year from near zero in the cold Arctic areas in winter up to 7 percent in areas where greater cloudiness and warmer temperatures prevail. The data also reveal a general tendency of colder cloud temperatures to reduce the probability of icing in equally cloudy conditions.

Perkins, Porter J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Probability of error and radiometric resolution for target discrimination in radar images

A straightforward statistical analysis is presented of the problem of discriminating between two distributed targets in a radar image. The probability of making an error is calculated as a function of the target contrast, the number of samples averaged to form each observation, and the system noise. In the absence of system noise, it is observed that a target contrast of 1 dB could not be detected with less than 10 samples averaged; it is also seen that the error probability is sensitive to the number of samples averaged, as expected. Setting the target contrast at the radiometric resolution, a comparison is made of different definitions for this resolution. The comparison shows that each definition yields a different error probability, ranging from less than 0.05 to 0.35. Attention is also given to the effect of system noise, and it is shown that thermal noise does not have a significant effect on the error probability for a fixed target contrast.

Frost, V. S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probability function of breaking-limited surface elevation

The effect of wave breaking on the probability function of surface elevation is examined. The surface elevation limited by wave breaking zeta sub b(t) is first related to the original wave elevation zeta(t) and its second derivative. An approximate, second-order, nonlinear, non-Gaussian model for zeta(t) of arbitrary but moderate bandwidth is presented, and an expression for the probability density function zeta sub b(t) is derived. The results show clearly that the effect of wave breaking on the probability density function of surface elevation is to introduce a secondary hump on the positive side of the probability density function, a phenomenon also observed in wind wave tank experiments.

Tung, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A method of classification for multisource data in remote sensing based on interval-valued probabilities

An axiomatic approach to intervalued (IV) probabilities is presented, where the IV probability is defined by a pair of set-theoretic functions which satisfy some pre-specified axioms. On the basis of this approach representation of statistical evidence and combination of multiple bodies of evidence are emphasized. Although IV probabilities provide an innovative means for the representation and combination of evidential information, they make the decision process rather complicated. It entails more intelligent strategies for making decisions. The development of decision rules over IV probabilities is discussed from the viewpoint of statistical pattern recognition. The proposed method, so called evidential reasoning method, is applied to the ground-cover classification of a multisource data set consisting of Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. By treating the data sources separately, the method is able to capture both parametric and nonparametric information and to combine them. Then the method is applied to two separate cases of classifying multiband data obtained by a single sensor. In each case a set of multiple sources is obtained by dividing the dimensionally huge data into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. By a divide-and-combine process, the method is able to utilize more features than the conventional maximum likelihood method.

Kim, Hakil↗
NASA NTRS1991

Coincidence probabilities for spacecraft gravitational wave experiments - Massive coalescing binaries

Massive coalescing binary systems are candidate sources of gravitational radiation in the millihertz frequency band accessible to spacecraft Doppler tracking experiments. This paper discusses signal processing and detection probability for waves from coalescing binaries in the regime where the signal frequency increases linearly with time, i.e., 'chirp' signals. Using known noise statistics, thresholds with given false alarm probabilities are established for one- and two-spacecraft experiments. Given the threshold, the detection probability is calculated as a function of gravitational wave amplitude for both one- and two-spacecraft experiments, assuming random polarization states and under various assumptions about wave directions. This allows quantitative statements about the detection efficiency of these experiments and the utility of coincidence experiments. In particular, coincidence probabilities for two-spacecraft experiments are insensitive to the angle between the directions to the two spacecraft, indicating that near-optical experiments can be done without constraints on spacecraft trajectories.

Tinto, Massimo↗
NASA NTRS1990

Anytime synthetic projection: Maximizing the probability of goal satisfaction

A projection algorithm is presented for incremental control rule synthesis. The algorithm synthesizes an initial set of goal achieving control rules using a combination of situation probability and estimated remaining work as a search heuristic. This set of control rules has a certain probability of satisfying the given goal. The probability is incrementally increased by synthesizing additional control rules to handle 'error' situations the execution system is likely to encounter when following the initial control rules. By using situation probabilities, the algorithm achieves a computationally effective balance between the limited robustness of triangle tables and the absolute robustness of universal plans.

Drummond, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1994

Probability techniques for reliability analysis of composite materials

Traditional design approaches for composite materials have employed deterministic criteria for failure analysis. New approaches are required to predict the reliability of composite structures since strengths and stresses may be random variables. This report will examine and compare methods used to evaluate the reliability of composite laminae. The two types of methods that will be evaluated are fast probability integration (FPI) methods and Monte Carlo methods. In these methods, reliability is formulated as the probability that an explicit function of random variables is less than a given constant. Using failure criteria developed for composite materials, a function of design variables can be generated which defines a 'failure surface' in probability space. A number of methods are available to evaluate the integration over the probability space bounded by this surface; this integration delivers the required reliability. The methods which will be evaluated are: the first order, second moment FPI methods; second order, second moment FPI methods; the simple Monte Carlo; and an advanced Monte Carlo technique which utilizes importance sampling. The methods are compared for accuracy, efficiency, and for the conservativism of the reliability estimation. The methodology involved in determining the sensitivity of the reliability estimate to the design variables (strength distributions) and importance factors is also presented.

Wetherhold, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The reaction probability of N2O5 with sulfuric acid aerosols at stratospheric temperatures and compositions

We have measured the rate of reaction of N2O5 with H2O on monodisperse, submicrometer H2SO4 particles in a low-temperature flow reactor. Measurements were carried out at temperatures between 225 K and 293 K on aerosol particles with sizes and compositions comparable to those found in the stratosphere. At 273 K, the reaction probability was found to be 0.103 +/- 0.0006, independent of H2SO4 composition from 64 to 81 wt%. At 230 K, the reaction probability increased from 0.077 for compositions near 60% H2SO4 to 0.146 for compositions near 70% H2SO4. Intermediate conditions gave intermediate results except for low reaction probabilities of about 0.045 at 260 K on aerosols with about 78% H2SO4. The reaction probability did not depend on particle size. These results imply that the reaction occurs essentially at the surface of the particle. A simple model for this type of reaction that reproduces the general trends observed is presented. the presence of formaldehyde did not affect the reaction rate.

Fried, Alan↗
NASA NTRS2005

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Five logistic regression equations were created that predict the probability of cloud-to-ground lightning occurrence for the day in the KSC/CCAFS area for each month in the warm season. These equations integrated the results from several studies over recent years to improve thunderstorm forecasting at KSC/CCAFS. All of the equations outperform persistence, which is known to outperform NPTI, the current objective tool used in 45 WS lightning forecasting operations. The equations also performed well in other tests. As a result, the new equations will be added to the current set of tools used by the 45 WS to determine the probability of lightning for their daily planning forecast. The results from these equations are meant to be used as first-guess guidance when developing the lightning probability forecast for the day. They provide an objective base from which forecasters can use other observations, model data, consultation with other forecasters, and their own experience to create the final lightning probability for the 1100 UTC briefing.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke Was Within Any Radius of Any Point

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station.

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Lightning Stroke Contacted the Surface Within Any Radius of Any Point

A technique has been developed to calculate the probability that any nearby lightning stroke is within any radius of any point of interest. In practice, this provides the probability that a nearby lightning stroke was within a key distance of a facility, rather than the error ellipses centered on the stroke. This process takes the current bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to get the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius. This new facility-centric technique will be much more useful to the space launch customers and may supersede the lightning error ellipse approach discussed in [5], [6].

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗