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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Collisional evolution of asteroids - Populations, rotations, and velocities

The collisional evolution of various initial populations of asteroids is simulated numerically and compared with the present asteroid size-frequency distribution to find those populations which collisionally relax to the present belt. Both orbital and size distributions are treated, as well as the simultaneous evolution of two collisionally interacting populations with different physical properties. If the initial belt distribution was a power law, the initial belt population at the time when the present high-collision speed was established was probably only modestly larger than the present population. However, other distributions allow a more massive early belt. The rotational evolution due to collisions of asteroids with power-law distributions is also examined and compared with observations, leading to conclusions generally in agreement with those of size evolution. The high-collision speed in the present belt is likely due to Jupiter. Gravitational stirring by massive Jupiter-scattered planetesimals or secular resonances sweeping through the belt are the most probable mechanisms.

Davis, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The hidden ion population of the magnetosphere

The presence of a cold ion population in the magnetosphere which is normally hidden from particle detector observation by the positive charging of the spacecraft is reported. Ion and electron data were obtained from particle detectors on the ATS 6 and SCATHA satellites designed to measure the 1-eV to 80-keV plasma population. The cold, isotropic ion population, with temperature 1 eV and density 10-100/cu cm, was detected only when the spacecraft were in eclipse, when spacecraft potential had dropped from +10 V in sunlight to +4 to +5 V. The hidden ion population was found at geosynchronous altitude only during geomagnetically quiet times and when there has been an absence of geomagnetic activity for several hours, and appears to coexist with the plasma sheet. More consistent measurements of the cold ion population at midnight or at other local times would require the biasing of the ion detector with respect to the spacecraft, or the controlling of spacecraft potential.

Olsen, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Study and Estimation of Planet-crossing Asteroid Populations: Discoveries and Analysis

The populations of the various classes of planet-crossing asteroids, based on the results of the systematic Planet-Crossing Asteroid Survey (PCAS) search program are evaluated. Knowledge of the populations is crucial to the stimation of lunar and terrestrial planet cratering rates from asteroidal and cometary sources needed to establish the chronology of other surface features on those bodies. A secondary objective is to identify the sources of these crater-forming objects and their relative importance in producing the observed planet-crossing asteroid population. Some key PCAS asteroid discoveries relevant to the population problem and the progress in using the available search data to update and refine earlier estimates of the planet-crossing asteroid population are described.

Helin, E. F.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Stellar populations; Proceedings of the Meeting, Baltimore, MD, May 20-22, 1986

Various papers covering recent findings on stellar populations are presented. The topics addressed include: the bulges of the Galaxy and M31, kinematics of the local subdwarfs and the collapse of the Galaxy, the red stellar population of the local group dwarf galaxies, globular clusters in the local group galaxies, the initial mass function, and star formation histories of galactic disks. Also discussed are: yield and abundance constraints on galactic chemical evolution, population synthesis in early type galaxies, the evolution of stellar populations in galaxies, a theoretical perspective on spectral evolution of galaxies, and the structure and kinematics of galaxy populations.

Norman, Colin A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Population II Li-6 as a probe of nucleosynthesis and stellar structure and evolution

We discuss the importance of Population II Li-6 as a diagnostic for models of primordial nucleosynthesis, cosmic-ray nucleosyntheses in the early Galaxy, and the structure and evolution of metal-poor solar-type stars. The observation of Li-6 in the subdwarf HD 84937 is shown to be consistent with the existing Population II LiBeB data within the context of a simple three-component model: (1) standard big bang nucleosynthesis, (2) Population II cosmic-ray nucleosynthesis, (3) standard (nonrotating) stellar LiBeB depletion. If this interpretation is correct, we predict a potentially detectable boron abundance for this star: about 2 x 10 exp -12. Subsequent Population II LiBeB observations, and in particular further observations of Population II Li-6, are shown to be crucial to our understanding of the primordial and early galactic creation and destruction mechanisms for light elements.

Steigman, Gary↗
NASA NTRS1994

Induced population gradients in galaxy merger remnants

We use numerical models to investigate the nature of induced population gradients in merger remnants. As noted by White, we find that the population mixing in stellar-dynamical mergers is rather moderate, leading to metallicity gradients in the remnant that are closely tied to gradients in the progenitor galaxies. Furthermore, the resultant metallicity gradients are poorly fitted by power laws, showing significant nonlinearities within an effective radius. If constant metallicity bulges are added to the progenitor disks, the strong relation between final and initial metallicity gradients is diluted, but the final gradients are still not well fitted by power laws. Detailed studies of the shape of the metallicity gradients in elliptical galaxies should help determine the degree to which stellar-dynamical mergers have contributed to the population of present-day ellipticals. We also consider the effects of centrally concentrated starbursts on metallicity gradients. Using simple models for metallicity enhancement, we find that addition of a metal-rich starburst population can reproduce the magnitude and shape of metallicity gradients observed in elliptical galaxies. However, even in such cases the metallicity gradients in the merger remnant should steepen significantly beyond an effective radius. Modelling such merger-induced starbursts with population synthesis techniques, we find that if the starburst is characterized by solar metallicity, it should be detectable as a bluing of the nuclear regions for several Gyr. However, if the starburst is metal-rich, the reddening effects of higher metallicity makes the broad-band signature of the starburst much more difficult to detect.

Mihos, J. Christopher↗
NASA NTRS1993

The stellar population and luminosity function in M31 bulge and Inner Disk Fields

We report infrared photometry and stellar identifications for stars in five fields in the M31 bulge located from 2 to 11 arcmin from the nucleus. These fields have been chosen such that the bulge/disk star ratio predicted from Kent's (1989) small bulge model varies from 7:1 to 1:5, allowing a study of near pure disk and near pure bulge stellar populations. We reject the hypothesis of Davies et al. (1991) that luminous stars found within 500 pc of the nucleus are due to a contaminating disk population. We find that the bulge contains stars in excess of M(sub bol) = -5 mag and that the bulge luminosity function has a distinct shape different from the disk fields. We find many stars redder than (J-K) = 2 mag, and suggest that these stars may be the counterparts of the IRAS-selected Galactic bulge Miras studied by Whitelock et at. (1991). The number of bright stars (M(sub bol) is less than -5 mag) falls off more rapidly than the r band surface brightness. By building model fields out of a bulge luminosity function and artificial stars, we are able to show that the change in the luminosity function toward the center cannot be explained simply by the mismeasurement of overcrowded star images. However, these tests also raise the possibility that the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) tip may be approximately equal to 1 mag fainter than actually measured in our most crowded field, reaching only M(sub bol) = -5. We compare observed counts of AGB stars with those predicted from theoretical lifetimes using a technique of general interest for this problem, the Fuel Consumption Theorem of Renzini & Buzzoni (1986) Spectral Evolution of Galaxies (Reidel, Dordrecht). Our methodology is generally applicable to the study of other resolved extragalactic stellar populations. The number of observed stars per magnitude up to a luminosity of M(bol) = -5.5 mag is consistent with AGB evolution of the whole population of the innermost bulge field with the standard lifetime on the AGB of 1.3 Myr/mag. We advance the possibility that the bulge of M31 may be younger than the oldest Galactic globular clusters. We note that M33 has recently been found to have an r(exp 1/4)-law spheroid consisting of intermediate-age stars; bulges can form later than the old halo population.

Rich, R. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1995

An extended galactic population of low-luminosity x-ray sources (CVs?) and the diffuse x-ray background

The incompatibility of the properties of the X-ray background (XRB) with active galactic nuclei (AGNs) contributing approximately greater than 60% at energies of a few keV has often been interpreted as being due to a substantial contribution of a new population of yet unrecognized X-ray sources. The existence of such population has been recently suggested also by an analysis of very deep ROSAT observations which revealed a considerable excess of faint X-ray sources over that expected from QSO evolution models, and that the average spectrum of the resolved sources becomes harder with decreasing flux limit. These sources could be extragalactic in origin, but if they make a substantial contribution to the XRB then they must exhibit much weaker clustering than galaxies or QSOs in order to be consistent with the stringent constraints on source clustering imposed by autocorrelation analyses of the unresolved XRB. We investigate the possibility that the indicated new population of X-ray sources is Galactic in origin. Examining spherical halo and thick disk distributions, we derive the allowed properties of such populations which would resolve the discrepancy found in the number counts of faint sources and be consistent with observational constraints on the total background intensity, the XRB anisotropy, the number of unidentified bright sources, the Galaxy's total X-ray luminosity, and with the results of fluctuation analyses of the unresolved XRB. We find that a flattened Galactic halo (or a thick disk) distribution with a scale height of a few kpc is consistent with all the above requirements. The typical X-ray luminosity of the sources is approximately equal to 10(exp 30-31)ergs/s in the 0.5-2 keV band, the number density of sources in the solar vicinity is approximately 10(exp -4.5)pc(exp -3), their total number in the Galaxy is approximately 10(exp 8.5), and their total contribution to the Galaxy's X-ray luminosity is approximately 10(exp 39) ergs/s. We discuss the possible nature of these soures, including their being subdwarfs, low mass x-ray binaries (LMXBs), massive black holes, and old neutron stars. We argue that the inferred X-ray and optical luminosities of these sources, the slope of their energy spectrum, and the derived local number density and spatial distribution are all consistent with their being intrinsically faint cataclysmic variables with low accretion rates. We suggest a few possibilities for the origin of such population, including an origin from disrupted globular clusters or dark clusters. We make predictions and suggest tests that could either confirm or rule out our proposal in the near future.

Maoz, Eyal↗
NASA NTRS1998

Variability in Beta-Adrenergic Receptor Population in Cultured Chicken Muscle Cells

Investigations into expression of the beta-adrenergic receptor (bAR) in chicken skeletal muscle cells in culture were initiated because several beta-adrenergic receptor agonists are known to increase skeletal muscle protein deposition in avian and mammalian species. During initial attempts to study the bAR population on the surface of chicken skeletal muscle cells, we observed a high degree of variability that was later found to be the result of using different batches of horse serum in the cell culture media. The separation between total binding and nonspecific binding in cells grown in two serum samples was approximately two-fold The number of nuclei within multinucleated myotubes was not significantly different in cells grown in the two serum samples. To investigate whether these two sera had an effect on coupling efficiency between bAR population and cAMP production, the ability of these cells to synthesize cAMP was also assessed. Despite the two-fold difference in receptor population, the ability of these cells to synthesize cAMP was not significantly different. Because of the possible link between bAR population and muscle protein, we also determined if the quantity of the major skeletal muscle protein, myosin, was affected by conditions that so drastically affected the bAR population. The quantity of myosin heavy chain was not significantly different.

Young, Ronald B↗
NASA NTRS2004

Physical Characterization of the Near-Earth Object Population

Many pieces of the puzzle must be brought together in order to have a clear picture of the near-Earth object (NEO) population. Four of the pieces that can be described include: i) the taxonomic distribution of the population as measured by observational sampling, ii) the determination of albedos that can be associated with the taxonomic distribution, iii) discovery statistics for the NE0 population, and iv) the debiasing of the discovery statistics using the taxonomic and albedo information. Support from this grant enables us to address three of these four pieces. Binzel et al. (2004, submitted) presents the first piece, detailing the observations and observed characteristics of the NE0 and Mars-crossing (MC) population. For the second piece, a complementary program of albedo measurements is pursued at the Keck Observatory (Binzel, P. I.) with first results published in Delbo et al. (2003). For the third piece, the most extensive NE0 discovery statistics are provided by the LINEAR survey. Binzel has supervised the MIT Ph. D. thesis work of Stuart (2003) to bring the fourth piece, submitted for publication by Stuart and Binzel (2004). Our results provide new constraints for the NE0 population and progress for the Spaceguard Survey, illuminate asteroid and comet source regions for the NEOs, and provide new evidence for space weathering processes linking asteroids and meteorites. Further, we are identifying top priority near-Earth spacecraft mission candidates based on their spectral properties and inferred compositions.

Binzel, Richard P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Population dynamics during cell proliferation and neuronogenesis in the developing murine neocortex

During the development of the neocortex, cell proliferation occurs in two specialized zones adjacent to the lateral ventricle. One of these zones, the ventricular zone, produces most of the neurons of the neocortex. The proliferating population that resides in the ventricular zone is a pseudostratified ventricular epithelium (PVE) that looks uniform in routine histological preparations, but is, in fact, an active and dynamically changing population. In the mouse, over the course of a 6-day period, the PVE produces approximately 95% of the neurons of the adult neocortex. During this time, the cell cycle of the PVE population lengthens from about 8 h to over 18 h and the progenitor population passes through a total of 11 cell cycles. This 6-day, 11-cell cycle period comprises the "neuronogenetic interval" (NI). At each passage through the cell cycle, the proportion of daughter cells that exit the cell cycle (Q cells) increases from 0 at the onset of the NI to 1 at the end of the NI. The proportion of daughter cells that re-enter the cell cycle (P cells) changes in a complementary fashion from 1 at the onset of the NI to 0 at the end of the NI. This set of systematic changes in the cell cycle and the output from the proliferative population of the PVE allows a quantitative and mathematical treatment of the expansion of the PVE and the growth of the cortical plate that nicely accounts for the observed expansion and growth of the developing neocortex. In addition, we show that the cells produced during a 2-h window of development during specific cell cycles reside in a specific set of laminae in the adult cortex, but that the distributions of the output from consecutive cell cycles overlap. These dynamic events occur in all areas of the PVE underlying the neocortex, but there is a gradient of maturation that begins in the rostrolateral neocortex near the striatotelencephalic junction and which spreads across the surface of the neocortex over a period of 24-36 h. The presence of the gradient across the hemisphere is a possible source of positional information that could be exploited during development to establish the areal borders that characterize the adult neocortex.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

Discrete X-Ray Source Populations and Star-Formation History in Nearby Galaxies

This program aims in understanding the connection between the discrete X-ray source populations observed in nearby galaxies and the history of star-formation in these galaxies. The ultimate goal is to use this knowledge in order to constrain X-ray binary evolution channels. For this reason although the program is primarily observational it has a significant modeling component. During the first year of this study we focused on the definition of a pilot sample of galaxies with well know star-formation histories. A small part of this sample has already been observed and we performed initial analysis of the data. However, the majority of the objects in our sample either have not been observed at all, or the detection limit of the existing observations is not low enough to probe the bulk of their young X-ray binary populations. For this reason we successfully proposed for additional Chandra observations of three targets in Cycle-5. These observations are currently being performed. The analysis of the (limited) archival data for this sample indicated that the X-ray luminosity functions (XLF) of the discrete sources in these galaxies may not have the same shape as is widely suggested. However, any solid conclusions are hampered by the small number of detected sources. For this reason during the second year of this study, we will try to extend the sample in order to include more objects in each evolutionary stage. In addition we are completing the analysis of the Chandra monitoring observations of the Antennae galaxies. The results from this work, apart from important clues on the nature of the most luminous sources (Ultra-luminous X-ray sources; ULXs) provide evidence that source spectral and/or temporal variability does not significantly affect the shape of their X-ray luminosity functions. This is particularly important for comparisons between the XLFs of different galaxies and comparisons with predictions from theoretical models. Results from this work have been presented in several conferences. Refereed journal papers presenting these conclusions are currently in preparation. An important part of this study is the Chandra survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud, our second nearest star- forming galaxy. So far we have been awarded 5 Chandra observations of the central youngest part of the galaxy. These observations will help to study the very faint end of the young X-ray binary populations which is not possible to probe in more distant objects. Results from this study have been presented in several conferences and two papers are in preparation. In addition during year-2 we are planning of undertaking the task of identifying optical counterparts to the X-ray sources, which will help us to isolate interlopers (sources not associated with the SMC) and classify the X-ray binaries which are found to be associated with the SMC. In the theoretical front, the Star-Track X-ray binary population synthesis code which will be used for the modeling of the X-ray binary populations (led by co-I V. Kalogera and C. Belczynski), is complete. A first test using the XLF of the star-forming galaxy NGC-1569 showed remarkable agreement between the observed and the modeled XLF. These results are presented in an ApJ. Letters paper (Belczynski et al, 2004, 601, 147). During year-2 of this study we are planning of performing a parameter study in order to investigate which parameters are most important for the shape of the XLF. In addition we will perform comparisons with observations of other galaxies from our sample as they become available.

Zezas, Andreas↗
NASA NTRS2000

Highly ordered vertical structure of Synechococcus populations within the one-millimeter-thick photic zone of a hot spring cyanobacterial mat

A variety of contemporary techniques were used to investigate the vertical distribution of thermophilic unicellular cyanobacteria, Synechococcus spp., and their activity within the upper 1-mm-thick photic zone of the mat community found in an alkaline siliceous hot spring in Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming. Detailed measurements were made over a diel cycle at a 61 degrees C site. Net oxygenic photosynthesis measured with oxygen microelectrodes was highest within the uppermost 100- to 200-microm-thick layer until midmorning, but as the day progressed, the peak of net activity shifted to deeper layers, stabilizing at a depth of 300 microm from midday throughout the afternoon. Examination of vertical thin sections by bright-field and autofluorescence microscopy revealed the existence of different populations of Synechococcus which form discrete bands at different vertical positions. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis of PCR-amplified 16S rRNA gene segments from horizontal cryosections obtained at 100-microm-thick vertical intervals also suggested vertical stratification of cyanobacterial, green sulfur bacterium-like, and green nonsulfur bacterium-like populations. There was no evidence of diel migration. However, image analysis of vertical thin sections revealed the presence of a narrow band of rod-shaped Synechococcus cells in which the cells assumed an upright position. These upright cells, located 400 to 800 microm below the surface, were observed only in mat samples obtained around noon. In mat samples obtained at other time points, the cells were randomly oriented throughout the mat. These combined observations reveal the existence of a highly ordered structure within the very thin photic zone of this hot spring microbial mat, consisting of morphologically similar Synechococcus populations that are likely to be differentially adapted, some co-occurring with green sulfur bacterium-like populations, and all overlying green nonsulfur bacterium-like populations.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

Anchoring the Population II Distance Scale: Accurate Ages for Globular Clusters

The metal-poor stars in the halo of the Milky Way galaxy were among the first objects formed in our Galaxy. These Population II stars are the oldest objects in the universe whose ages can be accurately determined. Age determinations for these stars allow us to set a firm lower limit, to the age of the universe and to probe the early formation history of the Milky Way. The age of the universe determined from studies of Population II stars may be compared to the expansion age of the universe and used to constrain cosmological models. The largest uncertainty in estimates for the ages of stars in our halo is due to the uncertainty in the distance scale to Population II objects. We propose to obtain accurate parallaxes to a number of Population II objects (globular clusters and field stars in the halo) resulting in a significant improvement in the Population II distance scale and greatly reducing the uncertainty in the estimated ages of the oldest stars in our galaxy. At the present time, the oldest stars are estimated to be 12.8 Gyr old, with an uncertainty of approx. 15%. The SIM observations obtained by this key project, combined with the supporting theoretical research and ground based observations outlined in this proposal will reduce the estimated uncertainty in the age estimates to 5%).

Chaboyer, Brian C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Instability of the Present LEO Satellite Populations

Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with some assumed launch rates, the future unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects. In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new breakup debris due to collisions would exceed the loss of objects due to orbital decay. A new study has been conducted in the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, using higher fidelity models to evaluate the current debris environment. The study assumed no satellites were launched after December 2005. A total of 150 Monte Carlo runs were carried out and analyzed. Each Monte Carlo run simulated the current debris environment and projected it 200 years into the future. The results indicate that the LEO debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris. Detailed analysis shows that this growth is primarily driven by high collision activities around 900 to 1000 km altitude - the region which has a very high concentration of debris at present. In reality, the satellite population growth in LEO will undoubtedly be worse than this study indicates, since spacecraft and their orbital stages will continue to be launched into space. Postmission disposal of vehicles (e.g., limiting postmission orbital lifetimes to less than 25 years) will help, but will be insufficient to constrain the Earth satellite population. To preserve better the near-Earth environment for future space activities, it might be necessary to remove existing large and massive objects from regions where high collision activities are expected.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a significant source of man-made orbital debris. The propensity of SRMs to generate particles of 100 m and larger has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Radar observation, rather than in-situ gathered evidence, is currently the only measurable source for the NASA/ODPO model of the on-orbit slag population. This simulated model includes the time evolution of the resultant orbital populations using a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tail-off. However, due to the small amount of observational evidence, there can be no direct comparison to check the validity of this model. Rather than using the assumed population developed from purely historical and physical assumptions, a regressional approach was used which utilized the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. The estimated trajectories from the historical model of slag sources, and the corresponding plausible detections by the Haystack radar, were identified. Comparisons with observational data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the historical data obtained. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment.

Horstman, Matthew F.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Rotational Properties of the Binary and Non-Binary Populations in the Trans-Neptunian Belt

We present results for the short-term variability of binary trans-Neptunian objects (BTNOs). We performed CCD photometric observations using the 3.58 m Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (TNG), the 1.5 m Sierra Nevada Observatory (OSN) telescope, and the 1.23 m Centro Astronómico Hispano Alemán (CAHA) telescope at Calar Alto Observatory. We present results based on five years of observations and report the short-term variability of six BTNOs. Our sample contains three classical objects: (174567) 2003 MW12, or Varda, (120347) 2004 SB60, or Salacia, and 2002 VT130; one detached disk object: (229762) 2007 UK126; and two resonant objects: (341520) 2007 TY430 and (38628) 2000 EB173, or Huya. For each target, possible rotational periods and/or photometric amplitudes are reported. We also derived some physical properties from their light curves, such as density, primary and secondary sizes, and albedo. We compiled and analyzed a vast light curve database for TNOs including centaurs to determine the light-curve amplitude and spin frequency distributions for the binary and non-binary populations. The mean rotational periods, from the Maxwellian fits to the frequency distributions, are 8.63 plus or minus 0.52 hours for the entire sample, 8.37 plus or minus 0.58 hours for the sample without the binary population, and 10.11 plus or minus 1.19 hours for the binary population alone. Because the centaurs are collisionally more evolved, their rotational periods might not be so primordial. We computed a mean rotational period, from the Maxwellian fit, of 8.86 plus or minus 0.58 hours for the sample without the centaur population, and of 8.64 plus or minus 0.67 hours considering a sample without the binary and the centaur populations. According to this analysis, regular TNOs spin faster than binaries, which is compatible with the tidal interaction of the binaries. Finally, we examined possible formation models for several systems studied in this work and by our team in previous papers.

photometric↗
NASA NTRS2021

Forest Cover Correlation with Population Trends of the Eastern Towhee in the Mid-Eastern U.S.

The Eastern Towhee (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) is a large, ground-nesting sparrow-like bird in the Eastern United States that has shown dramatic population declines over the last 50 years. This species lives year-round in the southeastern U.S., but individuals from the northeastern U.S. migrate south in the winter and overlap with southeastern residents. The Eastern Towhee is one of the fastest-declining bird species in the eastern U.S. In this study, we compare Eastern Towhee population trends during the breeding season with winter population trends over the last three decades. Paradoxically, this species is significantly increasing in Maryland, West Virginia, New Jersey, Virginia, and Delaware during the winter, but decreasing during the summer. Using the national Breeding Bird Survey dataset, we show that the Eastern Towhee populations have been declining roughly at a rate of -11.58% in Maryland, -9.51% in West Virginia, -37.95% in New Jersey, -11.22% in Virginia, and -16.96% in Delaware per year from 1984-2015. But the populations have been increasing during winter roughly at a rate of 0.62% in Maryland, 0.05% in West Virginia, 0.33% in New Jersey, 0.08% in Virginia, and 0.51% in Delaware per year from 1984-2019, using the Christmas Bird Count. We explore a variety of hypotheses to explain this paradox, including a northward range shift in association with climate change, as well as changes in habitat availability. Our study documents how the natural world is changing in complex ways due to many stressors and will help understand how to conserve the Eastern Towhee.

Meklit Mesfin↗