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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal predictions of toxic urban plumes using deep learning

Industrial accidents, chemical spills, and structural fires can release large amounts of harmful materials that disperse into urban atmospheres and impact populated areas. Computer models are typically used to predict the transport of toxic plumes by solving fluid dynamical equations. However, these models can be computationally expensive due to the need for many grid cells to simulate turbulent flow and resolve individual buildings and streets. In emergency response situations, alternative methods are needed that can run quickly and adequately capture important spatiotemporal features. Here, we present a novel deep learning model called ST-GasNet inspired by the mathematical equations that govern the behavior of plumes as they disperse through the atmosphere. ST-GasNet learns the spatiotemporal dependencies from a limited set of temporal sequences of ground-level toxic urban plumes generated by a high-resolution large eddy simulation model. On independent sequences, ST-GasNet accurately predicts the late-time spatiotemporal evolution, given the early-time behavior as an input, even when a building splits a large plume into smaller plumes. By incorporating large-scale wind boundary condition information, ST-GasNet achieves a prediction accuracy of at least 90% on test data for the entire prediction period.

Civil and Environmental Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Unraveling Spatio-Temporal Chemistry Evolution in Laser Ablation Plumes and Its Relation to Initial Plasma Conditions

The chemistry evolution in a laser ablation plume depends strongly on its initial physical conditions. In this article, we investigate the impact of plasma generation conditions on the interrelated phenomena of expansion dynamics, plasma chemistry, and physical conditions. Plasmas are produced from a uranium metal target in air using nanosecond, femtosecond, and femtosecond filament-assisted laser ablation. Time-resolved two-dimensional spectral imaging was performed for evaluating the spatio-temporal evolu-tion of atoms, diatoms, polyatomic molecules, and nanoparticles in situ. Emission spectral features reveal that molecular formation occurs at early times in both femtosecond and filament ablation plumes, although with different temporal decay. In contrast, mo-lecular formation is found to occur at much later times in nanosecond plasma evolution. Spectral modeling is used to infer tem-poral behavior of plasma excitation temperature, and results highlighted that nanosecond plume temperatures decay rapidly while plumes generated by filament ablation show slowest decay. In this work, we find U atoms and UO molecules co-exist in ultrafast laser produced plasmas even at early times after plasma onset owing to favorable temperatures for molecular formation. Regardless of irradiation conditions, plume emission features showed presence of higher oxides (i.e. UxOy), although with different temporal histories. Our study provides insight into the impact of plasma generation conditions on chemistry evolution in plasmas produced from traditional focused femtosecond, nanosecond, and filament-assisted laser ablation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observation and Simulation of Methane Plumes During the Morning Boundary Layer Transition

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) contributes significantly to global warming. However, accurate identification of CH 4 sources for reducing CH 4 emissions is often hampered by inadequate accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage of CH 4 detection, and lack of accurate CH 4 forward modeling used in top‐down inversion systems. In this study, a field experiment was conducted in Pampa, Texas using two CH 4 sensors (LI‐COR and OGI camera) to detect CH 4 releases. We investigated whether high‐resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with greenhouse gases (WRF‐GHG) could accurately simulate the CH 4 plumes in the presence of evolving atmospheric boundary layer from sunrise to noon. CH 4 plumes showed substantial variation in time. At a release rate of ∼17.5 kg hr −1 , the maximum enhancement of CH 4 measured by LI‐COR was 2.6 ppm at sunrise (7:36 a.m.), 250 m from the release location. Within half an hour after sunrise, this enhancement decreased to 0.3–0.4 ppm. The enhancement was 0.2 ppm by 10:00 a.m. and further dropped to less than 0.1 ppm after 11:30 a.m. Due to the low temperature at sunrise, the OGI camera failed to detect the CH 4 plume. The WRF‐GHG large‐eddy simulation (LES) with 32 m grid spacing successfully reproduced these CH 4 enhancements. In situ measurements together with numerical simulations illustrate the impact of the transition from a stable boundary layer in the early morning to a convective boundary layer at noon on the dispersion of CH 4 plumes. Additionally, CH 4 plumes from a cattle farm in Oklahoma are briefly examined using the same modeling approach.

Hu, Xiao‐Ming [Center for Analysis and Prediction ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Height-resolved emission spectroscopy and high-speed imaging of the TiAl6V4 vapor plume under laser powder bed fusion conditions

Optical emission spectroscopy is increasingly used as an in situ monitoring technique during laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) because plume emission holds elemental information not found in other in situ sensing techniques. This work explores the shape, stability, and temperature of the emission plume above the melt pool of Ti6Al4 V undergoing laser scans under LPBF-like processing conditions, using high-speed video and height-resolved spectroscopy to study the details of plume dynamics. Optical emission spectroscopy is conducted in the 480 nm to 525 nm region, where Ti emission is strong, with 0.3 mm vertical resolution above the baseplate. The Boltzmann plot method is used to determine temperature at each probed elevation, which indicates that the hottest location of the plume is occasionally elevated 0.3 mm to 0.6 mm above the scanning surface. The results show that the plume shape, stability, temperature, and spectra are highly dependent on the processing conditions. We highlight some of the complexities of optical emission spectroscopy and discuss potential challenges for implementing optical emission spectroscopy across an entire build.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Standoff Detection of Chemical Plumes Using Swept-ECQCL Remote Detection Technology: Results from EMRTC Complex Terrain Dual Tracer Experiment

As part of the Complex Terrain Dual Tracer Experiments performed in support of the LYNM program, a swept-wavelength external cavity quantum cascade laser (swept-ECQCL) remote detection system was deployed to measure chemical plume propagation with high temporal resolution. The swept-ECQCL remote detection technology was initially developed at PNNL, and is now under further development at Opticslah, LLC under SBIR funding from DOE (DOE SBIR Phase I Project DE-SC0019855, Remote Detection Technologies, Program Manager Chris Ramos). The swept-ECQCL technology provides a single-frequency infrared laser source which is rapidly scanned over a large wavelength range to measure the infrared absorption of gases, liquids, or solids. Analysis of the measured infrared absorption spectrum is used to detect, identify, and quantify the chemical species which are present. While most previous laser-based techniques used small wavelength tuning ranges to measure only a few isolated spectral lines of a few species, the swept-ECQCL provides the large tuning range needed to measure multiple species simultaneously, and to detect broad absorption features from large molecules or condensed phase materials. In addition, the swept-ECQCL systems have high enough spectral resolution and sensitivity to measure narrow lines of small molecules and determine isotope ratios. The remote detection system for gas plumes is based on the swept-ECQCL technology, and consists of a swept-ECQCL source, infrared detector, control electronics, and beam transmitting and alignment optics. The remote detection system directs the infrared output of the swept-ECQCL to a target retro reflector typically located at ~10-10,000 m distance. The swept-ECQCL wavelength is varied continuously over a large wavelength range (>1000 nm) at rates up to 1000 Hz. The swept ECQCL light reflected from the remote target is collected and focused onto an infrared photodetector. By measuring the detector signal continuously as the swept-ECQCL wavelength is varied, a time-series of absorption spectra are measured for the gases along the beam line of-sight. Based on analysis and fitting of the measured absorption spectra, the time-dependent chemical concentrations of species are determined. Multiple species and mixtures can be detected simultaneously, for all species with absorption features above the sensor noise floor. The sensor output is thus a continuous, high-speed record of identified chemicals along with their concentrations and isotope ratios of interest. The high-speed operation enables low-noise operation in conditions of atmospheric turbulence and allows tracking of fluctuating concentrations in transient chemical plumes as needed for reliable remote detection applications. All components operate with minimal cooling requirements and no cryogens are needed. In addition, the output infrared light is invisible with an intensity below the maximum permissible exposure (MPE) threshold of 100 mW/cm2 for these infrared wavelengths and thus eye safe. The measurement concept for plume detection using the swept-ECQCL remote detection system is as follows. The ECQCL beam is directed toward a remote retro-reflector, which reflects the beam back to the ECQCL system where it is focused onto an infrared photodetector. The line-of-sight from the ECQCL system to the retro-reflector defines the measurement path. The detected infrared signal is recorded continuously and detects the absorption of molecular species along the measurement path. Before a plume release, the system measures absorption from atmospheric constituents, which in this LWIR band consist primarily of lines from H 2 O and CO 2 , with additional weaker absorption from N 2 O, NH 3 , and O 3 possibly contributing. The system then measures any changes in absorption due to the tracer compounds when they enter the measurement path. The shape of absorption features is used to distinguish and identify the different tracer compounds, and the strength of the absorption is used to determine the path-integrated concentration – also called the column density.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Quantitative Approach for Demonstrating Plume Stabilization Under CCS Policy Frameworks

Conference presentation at Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Conference 2024, Houston, Texas, March 11–13, 2024. The study highlighted the operator’s responsibilities for demonstrating plume stabilization in partial fulfillment of postinjection monitoring and site closure requirements. The metric dA/dt was chosen because of rules and regulations that call out the need to measure the change in area of the plume and plume extents over time. As dA/dt approached dA/dtcritical, the CO 2 plume’s growth was both minimal and predictable. Providing operators with a quantitative approach to determining plume stabilization is important for moving carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects beyond feasibility phases of development.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Capturing plume behavior in complex terrain: an overview of the Nevada National Security Site Meteorological Experiment (METEX21)

METEX21 was an atmospheric tracer release experiment executed at the Department of Energy’s Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in the southwestern U.S to study terrain-induced wind and thermodynamic conditions that influence local-scale (<5-km) plume transport under varying atmospheric forcing conditions. Meteorological observations were collected using 10-m tall meteorological towers, 2-m tall tripods with 3-d sonic anemometers, a 3-m tall eddy covariance flux tower, Doppler profiling lidars, Doppler scanning lidars, weather-balloon launched radiosondes, and a tethered balloon equipped with wind, temperature, and aerosol sensors at heights up to 800 m. A smoke tracer was released along three transects in the horizontal and vertical directions and observed with video cameras, aerosol sensors and lidars (via aerosol backscatter). The observations showed evidence of large-scale/synoptic transience as well as local-scale upslope and downslope flows, along-axis valley flows, recirculation eddies on leeward slopes, and periods of strong shear and veer aloft. The release days were classified as either synoptically-driven or locally-driven, and a single case day is presented in detail for each. Synoptically-forced days show relatively narrow smoke plumes traveling down the valley from north to south (with the predominant wind direction), with little deviation in transport direction regardless of the elevation or ground locations of the smoke releases, except near the presence of leeside recirculation eddies. Locally-forced days exhibit a wider range of plume behavior due to the combination of thermally-induced valley and slope flows, which are often flowing in different cardinal directions, and wind shear found aloft at higher altitudes and elevations. We saw evidence of smoke lofting on top of the mesas due to strong upslope flows on these days. A major finding of this experiment was the effectiveness of scanning lidars to measure 2-dimensional plume transport out to a 2–3 km distance; much farther than could be visibly observed. METEX21 was the first of three planned tracer experiments at NNSS, and future experiments will incorporate multiple tracers to improve individual plume identification so that finer resolution flow details can be attained from these measurements, as well as deploy a larger suite of meteorological instrumentation, including more temperature profiling data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Quantification of CO2 Plume Dynamics at Illinois Basin Decatur Project Sites Using Microseismic Data

This study utilizes machine learning to quantify CO2 plume extents by analyzing microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). Leveraging a unique dataset of well logs, microseismic records, and CO2 injection metrics, this work aims to predict the temporal evolution of subsurface CO2 saturation plumes. The findings illustrate that machine learning can predict plume dynamics, revealing vertical clustering of microseismic events over distinct time periods within certain proximities to the injection well, consistent with an invasion percolation model. The buoyant CO2 plume partially trapped within sandstone intervals periodically breaches localized barriers or baffles, which act as leaky seals and impede vertical migration until buoyancy overcomes gravity and capillary forces, leading to breakthroughs along vertical zones of weakness. Between different unsupervised clustering techniques, K-Means and DBSCAN were applied and analyzed in detail, where K-means outperformed DBSCAN in this specific study by indicating the combination of the highest Silhouette Score and the lowest Davies–Bouldin Index. The predictive capability of machine learning models in quantifying CO2 saturation plume extension is significant for real-time monitoring and management of CO2 sequestration sites. The models exhibit high accuracy, validated against physical models and injection data from the IBDP, reinforcing the viability of CO2 geological sequestration as a climate change mitigation strategy and enhancing advanced tools for safe management of these operations.

Iyegbekedo, Ikponmwosa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Planetesimal Impact Vapor Plumes and Nebular Shocks Form Chondritic Mixtures

The origin of chondrules and the chondritic sedimentary rocks that dominate the meteoritic record is a long-standing problem in planetary science. Here, we develop a physical model for the formation of chondritic mixtures as an outcome of vaporizing collisions between planetesimals that were dynamically excited by the growth and migration of planets. We present calculations of nebular shock waves generated by impact vapor plumes and focus on aspects of the plume interaction with the nebular gas and dust that have been neglected in previous studies of impact ejecta. We find that when water dominates the vapor, the plumes are relatively cool. However, the plume expansion is supersonic and can drive strong shock waves in the dusty nebular gas. Portions of these nebular shock fronts initially melt nebular dust, forming chondrules that are coupled to the moving front. As the shock front expands and cools, the chondrules solidify, while the shock front entrains additional dust. Eventually, the plume expansion stalls and then hydrodynamically collapses, turbulently mixing variably processed dust and size-sorted chondrules. For probable impact parameters and nebular conditions during giant planet growth and migration, the impact-generated mixtures have characteristics that span the range observed in chondritic meteorites, providing an environment for rapid formation of chondritic assemblages after chondrule formation. Our impact vapor and nebular shocks model, named the IVANS model, links chondrule formation to the overall context of planet formation and provides a framework for interpreting the detailed chronological and geochemical record contained in chondritic meteorites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applications of Hyporheic Zone Sampling for Assessing VOC Plume Engineered Remediation and Natural Attenuation Effectiveness - 20414

Determining the efficacy of engineered remedial actions and/or natural attenuation as an acceptable EPA Record of Decision (ROD) must address long-term temporal and spatial variability. Since final plume downslope destinations are aquifers and related surface streams and rivers, hyporheic zone sampling is essential. Comprehensive hyporheic sampling documents plume groundwater remediation prior to upwelling into stream benthic strata and natural attenuation within this dynamic zone itself. Our intensive sampling of the Savannah River Site (SRS) Chemical, Metals, and Pesticides (CMP) Pits VOC plume-fringe from 2005 to 2018 documented PCE natural attenuation and effectiveness of In Situ Thermal Treatment (ISTT). Most plume hyporheic upwelling was delimited to a 20 m inflow reach along Pen Branch. Our study utilized corroborative sampling methodologies: ambient hole-water grab samples: passive diffusion bags (PDB); and hole-core sediment samples to confirm station to station spatial and temporal trends. VOC hot spot detections were confirmed from both groundwater and soil core samples. VOC pathways through the Pen Branch hyporheic zone were assessed at hole-installation using sequential soil samples from augered cores and grab-samples of hole-bottom water. Longer term, composite water samples were collected from PDBs deployed for a minimum two-week equilibration period. Soil samples were collected from the 15 and 65 cm core levels in December 2017 and June 2018 at six stations. Additional core depths of 40 and 85 cm were sampled in June 2018 at the highest VOC station (5DB80). All samples were analyzed in an EPA certified lab by purge and trap GC-MS. Effectiveness of previous ISTT and soil vapor extraction (SVE) for this CMP Pits PCE plume, was clearly documented by significant downward trends in VOC at hyporheic zone stations prior to December 2015. Achieving final stage conversions of PCE daughter products to ethene and CO{sub 2} may be limited depending upon suitable interactions between hyporheic zone sediment morphology, hydrology, and redox conditions. Because declines in VOC daughter products at our hyporheic stations may also be caused by physical actions of dilution and dispersion rather than true biochemical dechlorination, full quantification of natural attenuation requires the use of compound-specific isotope ratio analysis (CSIA) and microbial 16S rRNA with qPCR. To assist these next-phase efforts, a natural attenuation index (NAI) was used to help produce quicker, more cost-effective decision making for locating CSIA and microbial sampling efforts. The NAI used natural logarithm transformed GC-MS results for station VOC degradation compounds versus VOC parent compounds. Wide differences were observed between stations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

A lumped particle direct simulation Monte-Carlo method combined with the collisional-radiative model for simulations of non-equilibrium laser-induced plasma plumes

Collisional plasma plumes induced by laser irradiation of material targets exhibit large variations in local density as well as ionization and excitation states, making purely hydrodynamic or kinetic simulations inaccurate or infeasible. To address this challenge and capture non-equilibrium effects in laser-induced plasma plumes at arbitrary degrees of ionization, we develop a hybrid computational approach that combines the kinetic direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method with a collisional-radiative model (CRM). This ℓDSMC-CRM approach utilizes a lumped particle method to represent minor fractions of excited ions in particle-based simulations and a special coarse-graining technique for atomic spectra and photoionization rates, ensuring numerical convergence at reduced computational cost. The hybrid approach is applied to simulate spatially homogeneous relaxation as well as one- and two-dimensional expansions of plasma plumes induced by irradiation of a copper target by a nanosecond laser pulse in a vacuum or background gas. The comparison with an equilibrium model, where local Saha-Boltzmann equilibrium is enforced, shows that the non-equilibrium effects play a dominant role. The equilibrium model can fail to predict the flow structure and strongly underestimate the degree of absorption of laser radiation by the plume. The ℓDSMC-CRM approach is validated against experimental data demonstrating reasonable agreement with the experimental electron density and temperature, while the equilibrium model is found to dramatically underestimate electron density and temperature. The flexibility of the ℓDSMC-CRM approach allows for its seamless integration into existing DSMC frameworks, making it a valuable tool for high-fidelity plasma modeling in laser-material interactions, laser-based manufacturing, and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Methane Plume Emissions Associated With Puget Sound Faults in the Cascadia Forearc

Methane gas plumes have been discovered to issue from the seafloor in the Puget Sound estuary. These gas emission sites are co-located over traces of three major fault zones that fracture the entire forearc crust of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Multibeam and single-beam sonar data from cruises conducted in 2011, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 identified the acoustic signature of over 330 bubble plumes. Dissolved gas from the plumes combines to elevate seawater methane concentrations of the entire Puget Sound estuary. Fluid samples from adjacent terrestrial hot springs and deep-water wells surrounding the estuary contain a helium-3 isotope signature, indicating a deep fluid source located near the underlying Cascadia Subduction Zone. However, Puget Sound seawater emission sites lack chemical isotope signatures and elevated thermal anomalies expected from association with a deep plate-interface reservoir. The existence of vigorous marine methane plumes located in areas of thin sediment cover and above the traces of deeply-penetrating forearc fault zones – but still presenting no thermal or chemical anomalies that are found in many other similar forearc environments and remain an unresolved paradox.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved Gas Plume Identification Using Nearest Neighbor Methods for Background Estimation

Longwave infrared (LWIR) hyperspectral imaging (HSI) can be used for many tasks in remote sensing, including detecting and identifying effluent gases by LWIR sensors on airborne platforms. Identification is used after detection to increase confidence in weakly detected plumes, reduce false positives from detection, and distinguish between similar and confounding material signatures. Background estimation is an important step used to reveal the unique spectral characteristics of the detected gas, allowing the identification model to determine what the gas is specifically. The importance of proper background estimation increases when dealing with weak signals, large libraries of gases of interest, and uncommon or heterogeneous backgrounds. In this article, we propose two methods for background estimation: a novel k-nearest segments (KNS) algorithm and the standard k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm. We test our methods and three existing background estimation methods for comparison against global background estimation to determine which performs best at estimating the true background radiance under a plume and for increasing identification confidence using a neural network classification model. We compare the different methods using 640 simulated weak plumes in an urban environment. For identification, our KNS algorithm improves median neural network identification confidence by 53.2%. For background radiance estimation, the KNN algorithm provides a median of 49 times less RMSE than global background estimation. Furthermore, KNN is the easiest method to tune for different plumes, making it an excellent “out of the box” background estimator.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Mechanical Draft Cooling Tower Thermal Emissions from Visual Images of Plumes

Using a one-dimensional code, we computed the power (enthalpy discharge rate) of a twelve-cell mechanical draft cooling tower (MDCT) using over two hundred visible condensed water vapor plume volume measurements derived from images, weather data, and tower operating conditions. The plume images were simultaneously captured by multiple stationary digital cameras surrounding the cooling tower. An analysis technique combining structure from motion (SfM), a neural-network-based image segmentation algorithm, and space carving was used to quantify the volumes. Afterwards, the power output was computed using novel techniques in the one-dimensional code that included cooling tower exhaust plume adjacency effects implemented with a modified version of the entrainment function, weather data averaged from eleven stations, and fan operations at the times when plume volumes were measured. The model was then compared with the averaged observed power output, and it validated well with an average error ranging from 6 to 12%, depending on the meteorological data used in the simulations. This methodology can possibly determine power plant fuel consumption rates by applying visible imagery.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Hydrology and Interim Measure Performance in the Chromium Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20498

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), is present in the regional aquifer beneath Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) at concentrations greater than the New Mexico groundwater standard (50 ppb). The source of the Cr is blowdown from a power plant where potassium dichromate was used as a corrosion inhibitor from 1956 to 1972. Blowdown comingled with effluent from another source and migrated approximately 3 miles down a canyon, primarily as surface flow, until reaching an alluvial infiltration zone. The infiltrating water moved vertically through a thick (approximately 900 ft), complex stratigraphic sequence of unsaturated tuffs, basalt, and unconsolidated alluvial deposits. Horizontal transport also took place within spatially limited perched groundwater horizons in the vadose zone (VZ). Breakthrough at the regional aquifer water table is thought to have occurred in multiple hydraulic windows or 'drip points' located approximately 3 miles from the initial release site at the power plant. The regional aquifer is highly heterogeneous and anisotropic, and displays unconfined behavior in an upper zone and confined behavior at depth. The Cr(VI) contamination has so far remained confined to the upper approximately 25 m of the aquifer. The ambient hydraulic gradient in the regional aquifer is toward the east/southeast, but the water table is extremely flat in the Cr plume area compared to surrounding areas. There is some local variability in flow direction, potentially related to effects of seasonal pumping from nearby Los Alamos county water-supply wells, which draw from the regional aquifer several hundred feet below the water table. An interim measure (IM) is currently operating at the site to achieve hydraulic control of plume migration using a series of extraction wells, ion-exchange treatment, and injection along the downgradient portion of the plume. The migration of Cr contamination in the aquifer has been previously evaluated using a calibrated probabilistic numerical model, which has also been used to design the spatial configuration of extraction and injection wells for the IM, and to identify locations for monitoring wells. The model is built using the Finite Element Heat and Mass (FEHM) transfer code, and the Model Analysis and Decision Support (MADS) software is used for analyses. To date, the portion of the IM system that has operated in a continuous manner has been very effective at hydraulic control. Modifications to the flow field associated with the influence of IM pumping and injection are evaluated here, with modeling constraints to be provided by recent observations of tracers injected into both monitoring wells and IM injection wells, as well as opportunistic observations of geochemical signatures of treated ion-exchange effluent injected into IM injection wells. The tracer and geochemical data provide insights into modified flow directions within the Cr plume area that cannot be otherwise obtained. Results of the modeling work are being used to inform adaptive management of IM operations and will be a valuable tool for development and refinement of long-term remediation strategies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling CO 2 plume migration using an invasion-percolation approach that includes dissolution

Geological carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration has been proposed as a viable technique to decrease effective emissions of CO 2 into the atmosphere. However, the security of this sequestration is tied to our understanding of the long-term migration of CO 2 in subsurface. The dissolution of CO 2 in the reservoir brine is one of the main long-term trapping mechanisms. However, the assumptions used in large-scale reservoir simulations usually lead to an overestimation of the dissolution volume. We propose a modified approach based on the macroscopic invasion-percolation (MIP) theory that allows the dissolution of CO 2 into brine. We used a high-resolution geological model to compare the Darcy-, modified MIP-, and classic MIP-based simulation results. We observed a significant shrinkage in the nonaqueous plume volume when dissolution is considered during the MIP simulation. In the case of Darcy-based simulation, the plume was completely trapped inside the reservoir with limited migration even after a thousand-year simulation. On the other hand, the majority of the plume migrated out of the simulated reservoir in the case of MIP. Our approach provides more realistic estimation of the dissolution volume and nonaqueous plume extent while leveraging the computational efficiency enjoyed by MIP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

CO2 partial pressure and fluxes in the Amazon River Plume using in situ and remote sensing data

Estimations of the global carbon budget include a quantitative understanding of the evolving processes that occur along river-to-ocean gradients. However, high spatiotemporal resolution observations of these processes are limited. Here we present in situ measurements of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) made through the Amazon River plume (ARP) during different discharge seasons, from 2010-2012. We evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of pCO2 using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite observations for each hydrologic period in the ARP. Regression models were used to estimate pCO2 at the ARP for the period of 2010-2014. From these distributions we calculated sea-air gas exchange of CO2 between the plume waters and the atmosphere (F_co2^sea). Intra-annual variability of F_co2^sea was related to discharge at the river mouth and ocean currents as well as trade winds in the plume. Climatic events during the study period had a significant impact on the F_co2^sea. Including the plume area closer to the river mouth makes the ARP a net source of CO2 with an annual net sea-air flux of 8.6 ±7.1 Tg C y-1 from 2011-2014.

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