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DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prospects for Future Human Space Flight Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids

The forthcoming Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor space telescope is a foundational asset designed to complete NASA’s congressionally-mandated goal of cataloging ≥90% of NEOs ≥140 meters in size as soon as practical, and discover Earth impactors far in advance. NEO Surveyor is also critical to near-Earth asteroid (NEA) exploration because it will find suitable low-Δv NEAs for robotic and human missions, often on Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. Such NEAs have usually not been detected until imminent Earth launch opportunities because they were not observable until close to Earth. Discovering them far enough in advance to deploy missions requires a deep-space infrared survey telescope such as NEO Surveyor. In addition to posing hazards and being scientifically important, NEAs contain resources, such as water (OH), that could be utilized off-Earth. They also offer unique opportunities for the most ambitious human voyages ever undertaken. The Apollo program forever changed humanity’s perspective by showing us Earthrise from our Moon through human eyes. Crewed missions to NEAs will forever change our perspective again by showing us Earth as a distant point of light in the heavens as seen from an asteroid by astronauts. Planetary defense endeavors to understand asteroid and comet impact risks and develop mitigation capabilities. NEA exploration is synergistic in multiple ways. NEO Surveyor will discover and help characterize Earth impactors and accessible NEAs. Heavy-lift launch is highly enabling for both human NEA missions and planetary defense. Reconnaissance missions for planetary defense can also characterize NEAs prior to crewed missions. In situ resource utilization (ISRU) systems may be applicable to deflecting or destroying hazardous NEAs. NEA characterization data critically inform planetary defense efforts and indicate NEA types suitable for human exploration or ISRU. In 2010, NASA performed the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS), creating an automated online system monitoring mission accessibility of NEAs 2 . NHATS database NEAs meet criteria that require less total mission Δv and/or round-trip mission duration than the Martian surface or even Mars orbit. There are currently 4,658 NHATS NEAs, and many rival or exceed lunar orbit/surface accessibility. Thus, NHATS NEAs could be explored by humans prior to attempting a Mars mission. Human missions to NEAs would test human-rated spacecraft systems with less cost and risk than Mars missions. Thus, human missions to NEAs are compelling in their own right while also providing prudent preparation for more demanding Mars missions. Lunar missions can offer similar opportunities, but they differ from NEA missions in important ways. Lunar missions pose less demanding psychological challenges to crew and ground staff. Earth light-time delay for communications is significantly longer during NEA missions. NEA missions are available that require more propulsion system consumables than lunar missions but less than Mars missions. In this paper, we summarize NEA accessibility for human missions, discuss motivations for such missions, survey knowledge about NEAs that informs future human missions, present exemplar mission opportunities to the currently known NHATS NEAs, and describe future work towards enabling human NEA missions.

Near-Earth asteroids↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of Cable Anomalies using Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) and Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry (SSTDR)

This report presents a comparative assessment of the performance of frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) and spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) in detecting a wide range of electrical cable anomalies. All tests and results reported herein were performed at the PNNL Accelerated and Real-Time Environmental Nodal Assessment (ARENA) cable and motor test bed. The primary objective of this work was to evaluate the effectiveness of SSTDR, a fledgling cable monitoring technique that shows promise for application in online monitoring of energized cable systems, against FDR, an offline technique widely employed in the nuclear power plant (NPP) industry. FDR tests are becoming more widely used in nuclear power plant cable aging management and test programs – particularly for low voltage cables. FDR capabilities for these kinds of tests have been reported by PNNL and others. The FDR test is performed on de-energized cables by connecting the FDR instrument to two of the cable conductors, or one conductor and the shield. A broad band low voltage (< 5 V) chirp is introduced in the cable, and any reflected response is captured in the frequency domain. The captured reflection is then processed by performing an inverse Fourier transform to a time domain response which can then be converted to a distance response based on the cable velocity of propagation (VoP). SSTDR measurements are functionally similar to FDR measurements in that a broad-band voltage signal composed of a square or sine wave modulated pseudo-random sequence of chips (< 5 volts), is injected onto one of the cable conductors. The injected signal will experience partial energy reflection and transmission at each impedance discontinuity along the transmission line. Any reflected response is detected by computing a cross-correlation between the reflected signals and a delayed copy of the incident SSTDR signal. the time delay for the reflected signal to experience the best matched correlation with the incident signal, indicates the travel time for the signal to reach a change in impedance. By knowing this time delay and velocity of propagation (VoP) of the signal, one can compute the physical distance. A big advantage that SSTDR measurements have over other methods is the ability to be connected to energized or live wires (currently up to 1kV) thereby enabling online monitoring of cables. SSTDR has been used successfully in several applications, e.g., aircraft, rail, and photovoltaic systems. In this work FDR and SSTDR cable assessment techniques were used to characterize a variety of cable anomalies and faults including: (1) Presence or absence of a motor; (2) Ground faults and short circuit faults; (3) Moist environments and water ingress faults; (4) Accelerated thermal aging. Both shielded and non-shielded cables were evaluated in this report. Offline measurements were made using FDR and online measurements were made by SSTDR for a range of test scenarios. Based on the results across all cable anomalies evaluated in this study, FDR displayed high sensitivity towards cable condition assessment, while SSTDR showed promise for future application in monitoring NPP cable systems. However, further developments are suggested to improve the resolution and sensitivity of SSTDR towards faults and anomalies in low voltage cables.rt presents a comparative

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Augmented Kalman filter with a reduced mechanical model to estimate tower loads on a land-based wind turbine: a step towards digital-twin simulations

This article presents an application of the Kalman filtering technique to estimate loads on a wind turbine. The approach combines a mechanical model and a set of measurements to estimate signals that are not available in the measurements, such as wind speed, thrust, tower position, and tower loads. The model is severalfold faster than real time and is intended to be run online, for instance, to evaluate real-time fatigue life consumption of a field turbine using a digital twin, perform condition monitoring, or assess loads for dedicated control strategies. The mechanical model is built using a Rayleigh–Ritz approach and a set of joint coordinates. We present a general method and illustrate it using a 2-degrees-of-freedom (DOF) model of a wind turbine and using rotor speed, generator torque, pitch, and tower-top acceleration as measurement signals. The different components of the model are tested individually. The overall method is evaluated by computing the errors in estimated tower-bottom-equivalent moment from a set of simulations. From this preliminary study, it appears that the tower-bottom-equivalent moment is obtained with about 10 % accuracy. The limitation of the model and the required steps forward are discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data (Final Report)

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components: (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The ARENA Test Bed – A Versatile Resource for I&C Development and Validation

The Accelerated and Real-time Experimental Nodal Assessment (ARENA) Test Bed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is a versatile resource for development and validation of instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies. This capability was created to facilitate in-situ testing of nuclear electrical cables in various simulated operational environments. Using cable trays, a control box, and selected test components, low voltage cables can be staged to experience local adverse environments such as elevated temperature and water immersion. Cable condition can be continuously monitored over time to track the effect of local stresses using nondestructive assessment tools. A heads-up display (ARENA TV) plots key data in real-time for users. The ARENA Test Bed has recently been used to evaluate the potential for spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) to monitor thermal aging of a portion of live cable powering a three-phase motor. The arrangement provided the opportunity to directly compare the performance of the novel online SSTDR method with offline results from the more standard frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) method. The ability of SSTDR and FDR to identify the presence of water in immersed shielded and unshielded cables and to detect ground faults was also assessed. A digital twin is being developed to track and predict FDR signals from a thermally aging conceptual cable region to compare with measured signals from the ARENA physical counterpart. The test bed concept addresses an important need in nuclear I&C monitoring tool development. New tools and techniques can be developed in the test bed and validated versus known methods and physical measurements. Digital twins and machine learning engines can be populated with measured data in a controlled environment that would not be readily available in the actual nuclear power plant. Proposed monitoring strategies can be confirmed for effectiveness through objective evaluation. It is anticipated that the PNNL ARENA Test Bed will be a valuable resource in advancing nuclear plant instrumentation.

nuclear electrical cables, ARENA Test Bed, conditi↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Interoperable, Agricultural Information System Based on Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Monitoring global agricultural crop conditions during the growing season and estimating potential seasonal production are critically important for market development of US. agricultural products and for global food security. The Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center Distributed Active Archive Center (GES DISC DAAC) is developing an Agricultural Information System (AIS), evolved from an existing TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS), which will operationally provide satellite remote sensing data products (e.g., rainfall) and services. The data products will include crop condition and yield prediction maps, generated from a crop growth model with satellite data inputs, in collaboration with the USDA Agricultural Research Service. The AIS will enable the remote, interoperable access to distributed data, by using the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS) and by being compliant with Open GIS Consortium standards. Users will be able to download individual files, perform interactive online analysis, as well as receive operational data flows. AIS outputs will be integrated into existing operational decision support systems for global crop monitoring, such as those of the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and the U.N. World Food Program.

Teng, William↗

DOE OSTI2021

Online Monitoring of Radiochemical Processing Streams for the Plutonium-238 Supply Program

Online monitoring with spectrophotometry is being developed to improve the timeliness of analytical measurements for the Plutonium-238 Supply Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. A commercially available online monitoring software was used to calculate and view process data in real time to help identify process deviations and optimize system performance. Monitoring detailed process data will improve processing efficiency and help technicians make decisions during hot-cell operations.

Sadergaski, Luke↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Clamshell Current Coupler for Online Frequency Domain and Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry to Detect Anomalies in Energized Cables

This document describes adaptation and evaluation of a clamshell inductive current coupler for online reflectometry testing (both frequency domain reflectometry and spread spectrum time domain reflectometry) to evaluate cable insulation degradation and anomalies. Safety-critical nuclear power plant cables were initially qualified for 40 years. However, as plants extend their operating licenses to 60 and 80 years, justification for continued safe operation includes test and monitoring programs. These will become more important as the industry moves to condition based qualification programs. Cable test programs traditionally involve manual interventions to disconnect cables, perform one or several tests, then reconnect the systems, usually during refueling outages occurring only every 18 to 24 months. This poses an operational burden that can be minimized by online testing or periodic connection to a coupler that may remain on the cable of interest or be clamped onto the cable without de-termination. This work investigates the adaptation of a clamshell inductive current coupler for either frequency domain reflectometry or spread-spectrum time domain reflectometry. The reflectometry test instrument injects a broad-band chirp or pseudo-noise signal onto a cable conductor and monitors for a reflected signal indicative of an impedance change caused by a damage condition. The instrument maximum input signal levels are typically 10 to 30 volts or less and the instruments will be damaged if subjected to 60 Hz power line voltages of 110, 220, or 480 VAC. One commercial spread-spectrum time domain reflectometry system has circuitry suitable for voltages up to 1 kV, but typical reflectometry tests are performed on de-energized cables. The clamshell inductive coupler provides >60 dB of 60 Hz attenuation with less than 10 dB loss in the 1-500 MHz test bandwidth of interest. An energized cable was successfully tested up to 6.7 kVp-p and frequency response plots imply that the tests could be extended to 10 kV or higher energized levels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pu(IV) quantification via visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy: tackling interferences using D-optimal design and partial least squares

Here, this study presents a novel analytical approach for quantifying Pu(IV) in glove box environments using fiber-optic-based visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy in combination with partial least squares regression (PLSR) and design of experiments. The method addresses significant challenges posed by overlapping spectral features arising from Nd(III), which is a common fission product impurity, and the speciation variability of Pu(IV) nitrato complexes in HNO 3 concentrations ranging from 2.5 to 11 M. A curated training set consisting of data from 20 samples was developed via D-optimal design to enable robust PLSR model calibration for Pu(IV) using the near-infrared band near 1050 nm. The training set was acquired from samples in cuvettes with a 1-cm path length and was used to build the PLSR model. The robustness of the model was validated with data collected using a dip probe with a 1-cm path length and varying Pu(IV) concentrations. The strong performance of the model indicates good model transfer from cuvette to dip probe and highlights the potential for in situ measurements and online monitoring of reactions in a crystallization reactor vessel. The results demonstrate that this combined spectroscopic and chemometric approach can accurately and simultaneously quantify Pu(IV) and HNO 3 , thereby offering a promising tool for real-time monitoring in process environments.

Actinide↗

DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Validation of a Process Model and Open-Source Process Simulator for Microalgae-Based Tertiary Phosphorus Recovery

Microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment has the potential to meet stringent effluent phosphorus limits, with the added benefit of producing a marketable feedstock. However, the lack of validated mechanistic models and their implementation in process simulators have limited the adoption of this technology. In this study, an updated lumped pathway metabolic model (Phototrophic-Mixotrophic Process Model, PM 2 ), including both photoautotrophic and heterotrophic metabolisms of microalgae, was developed to predict effluent phosphorus concentration and biomass yield in response to dynamic influent and varying environmental conditions. The model was implemented in QSDsan – an open-source, Python-based design and simulation platform – for robust simulation under uncertainty. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to prioritize model parameters for calibration. The model was then calibrated and validated using batch experimental data and 45 days of continuous online monitoring data from a full-scale (568 m 3 ·d -1 ) microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment plant (EcoRecover process). In particular, along with dynamic influent composition, temperature and light intensity data with diel variation were provided as model inputs to reflect the microalgal behavior under day-night cycling. Overall, the QSDsan-based microalgae process simulator was able to predict effluent phosphorus within 0.02–0.04 mg-P·L -1 , while also capturing the general trends of state variables according to nutrient availability.

Lumped pathway metabolic model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radio Frequency Field Programable Gate Array Implementation of Reflectometry Cable Monitoring

This document describes the development of a field programable gate array (FPGA) radio frequency system on a chip (RF SoC) adaptation and evaluation of the single-board device to perform both Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) and Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry (SSTDR) for offline and online cable testing. The work builds on and leverages the work of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in airport millimeter wave technology by using the same development hardware employed in that program. The work is performed under sponsorship from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program and the task objective is to confirm and demonstrate feasibility to adapt FPGA technology for a cost-effective multiplexed single-board electronic module to perform cable tests that are equivalent to commercial and laboratory test instruments for FDR and SSTDR cable tests. The developed 2-channel (extendable to 7 channels) system was compared to dedicated and proven test instruments and shown to produce equivalent results on a range of cables and with a range of damage types. The FPGA reflectometry test board is one of several technologies that could facilitate implementation of online monitoring of safety critical cable systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1991

Model-based diagnostics for Space Station Freedom

An innovative approach to fault management was recently demonstrated for the NASA LeRC Space Station Freedom (SSF) power system testbed. This project capitalized on research in model-based reasoning, which uses knowledge of a system's behavior to monitor its health. The fault management system (FMS) can isolate failures online, or in a post analysis mode, and requires no knowledge of failure symptoms to perform its diagnostics. An in-house tool called MARPLE was used to develop and run the FMS. MARPLE's capabilities are similar to those available from commercial expert system shells, although MARPLE is designed to build model-based as opposed to rule-based systems. These capabilities include functions for capturing behavioral knowledge, a reasoning engine that implements a model-based technique known as constraint suspension, and a tool for quickly generating new user interfaces. The prototype produced by applying MARPLE to SSF not only demonstrated that model-based reasoning is a valuable diagnostic approach, but it also suggested several new applications of MARPLE, including an integration and testing aid, and a complement to state estimation.

Fesq, Lorraine M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Aircraft Health on Airspace Safety

This manuscript investigates the effects of aircraft health on the surrounding airspace, and proposes a methodology to understand how different aircraft-level faults (system faults, communication faults, etc.) can adversely affect the safety of the airspace, and qualitatively assess the impact of such faults on airspace safety metrics (such as congestion, controller/pilot workload, etc.). The topic of systems health management deals with continuously monitoring the performance of an engineering system, identifying and detecting the presence of faults, predicting the growth/progression of faults, computing the remaining useful life, and aiding online decision-making for the robust, continued operation of such engineering systems. The topic of real-time airspace modeling and safety analysis deals with defining and computing safety metrics for airspace operations in order to support risk-informed decision-making activities for various airspace entities including pilots, air traffic controllers, airlines, etc. This report presents recent research efforts that focus on combining multiple aspects of the aforementioned topics, and investigates the impact of aircraft-level faults on the airspace safety

Aircraft Health↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gamma-ray Spectroscopy in Low-Power Nuclear Research Reactors

Gamma-ray spectroscopy is an effective technique for radioactive material characterization, routine inventory verification, nuclear safeguards, health physics, and source search scenarios. Gamma-ray spectrometers typically cannot be operated in the immediate vicinity of nuclear reactors due to their high flux fields and their resulting inability to resolve individual pulses. Low-power reactor facilities offer the possibility to study reactor gamma-ray fields, a domain of experiments hitherto poorly explored. In this work, we present gamma-ray spectroscopy experiments performed with various detectors in two reactors: The EPFL zero-power research reactor CROCUS, and the neutron beam facility at the Ohio State University Research Reactor (OSURR). We employed inorganic scintillators (CeBr3), organic scintillators (trans-stilbene and organic glass), and high-purity germanium semiconductors (HPGe) to cover a range of typical—and new—instruments used in gamma-ray spectroscopy. The aim of this study is to provide a guideline for reactor users regarding detector performance, observed responses, and therefore available information in the reactor photon fields up to 2 MeV. The results indicate several future prospects, such as the online (at criticality) monitoring of fission products (like Xe, I, and La), dual-particle sensitive experiments, and code validation opportunities.

Pakari, Oskari V. (ORCID:0000000337048190)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Observations on the State of NASA's GN&C Engineering Discipline: Results of an Independent Non-Advocate Study

The NASA Technical Fellows periodically conduct State-of-the-Discipline assessments. The GN&C Technical Fellow contracted Harlan Brown & Company in 2007 and 2009 to conduct independent, third party studies to gain unbiased insight and understanding into the attitudes and beliefs of NASA's GN&C Community of Practice (CoP). The paper first outlines the background, objectives and methodology of the studies. The paper then summarizes key study results of the 2007 baseline study, as well as the 2009 update. The update was then used to track and monitor perceptions, identify performance trends, identify areas where further improvement needs to be made in NASA's GN&C discipline. It also generated feedback on the recently developed GN&C CoP online knowledge capture and learning site.

Pawlikowski, Gerald J.↗