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Design Initiative for a 10 TeV pCM Wakefield Collider

This document outlines a community-driven Design Study for a 10 TeV pCM Wakefield Accelerator Collider. The 2020 ESPP Report emphasized the need for Advanced Accelerator R&D, and the 2023 P5 Report calls for the ``delivery of an end-to-end design concept, including cost scales, with self-consistent parameters throughout." This Design Study leverages recent experimental and theoretical progress resulting from a global R&D program in order to deliver a unified, 10 TeV Wakefield Collider concept. Wakefield Accelerators provide ultra-high accelerating gradients which enables an upgrade path that will extend the reach of Linear Colliders beyond the electroweak scale. Here, we describe the organization of the Design Study including timeline and deliverables, and we detail the requirements and challenges on the path to a 10 TeV Wakefield Collider.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS

Effect of microgravity environment on cell wall regeneration, cell divisions, growth, and differentiation of plants from protoplasts (7-IML-1)

The primary goal of this project is to investigate if microgravity has any influence on growth and differentiation of protoplasts. Formation of new cell walls on rapeseed protoplasts takes place within the first 24 hours after isolation. Cell division can be observed after 2-4 days and formation of cell aggregates after 5-7 days. Therefore, it is possible during the 7 day IML-1 Mission to investigate if cell wall formation, cell division, and cell differentiation are influenced by microgravity. Protoplasts of rapeseeds and carrot will be prepared shortly before launch and injected into 0.6 ml polyethylene bags. Eight bags are placed in an aluminum block inside the ESA Type 1 container. The containers are placed at 4 C in PTCU's and transferred to orbiter mid-deck. At 4 C all cell processes are slowed down, including cell wall formation. Latest access to the shuttle will be 12 hours before launch. In orbit the containers will be transferred from the PTC box to the 22 C Biorack incubator. The installation of a 1 g centrifuge in Biorack will make it possible to distinguish between effects of near weightlessness and effects caused by cosmic radiation and other space flight factors including vibrations. Parallel control experiments will be carried out on the ground. Other aspects of the experiment are discussed.

Rasmussen, Ole

Fourier transform-infrared studies of thin H2SO4/H2O films: Formation, water uptake, and solid-liquid phase changes

Fourier transform-infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy was used to examine films representative of stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols. Thin films of sulfuric acid were formed in situ by the condensed phase reaction of SO3 with H2O. FTIR spectra show that the sulfuric acid films absorb water while cooling in the presence of water vapor. Using stratospheric water pressures, the most dilute solutions observed were greater than 40 wt % before simultaneous ice formation and sulfuric acid freezing occurred. FTIR spectra also revealed that the sulfuric acid films crystallized mainly as sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT). Crystallization occurred either when the composition was about 60 wt% H2SO4 or after ice formed on the films at temperatures 1-4 K below the ice frost point. Finally, we determined that the melting point for SAT depended on the background water pressure and was 216-219 K in the presence of 4 x 10(exp -4) Torr H2O. Our results suggest that once frozen, sulfuric acid aerosols in the stratosphere are likely to melt at these temperatures, 30 K colder than previously thought.

Middlebrook, Ann M.

The Considere Condition and Rapid Stretching of Linear and Branched Polymer Melts

We analyze the onset of "necking" and subsequent filament failure during the transient uniaxial elongation of viscoelastic fluid samples in extensional rheometers. In the limit of rapid elongation (such that no molecular relaxation occurs), the external work applied is all stored elastically and the Considere criterion originally developed in solid mechanics can be used to quantitatively predict the critical Hencky strain to failure. By comparing the predictions of the Doi-Edwards model for linear homopolymer melts with those of the "Pom-Pom" model for prototypical branched melts we show that the critical strain to failure in rapid elongation of a rubbery material is intimately linked to the molecular topology of the chain, especially the degree of chain branching. The onset of necking instability is monotonically shifted to larger Hencky strains as the number of branches is increased. Numerical computations at finite Deborah numbers also show that there is an optimal range of deformation rates over which homogeneous extensions can be maintained to large strain. We also consider other rapid homogeneous stretching deformations, such as biaxial and planar stretching, and show that the degree of stabilization afforded by inclusion of material with long-chain branching is a sensitive function of the imposed mode of deformation.

McKinley, Gareth H.

Activation of L-type calcium channels is required for gap junction-mediated intercellular calcium signaling in osteoblastic cells

The propagation of mechanically induced intercellular calcium waves (ICW) among osteoblastic cells occurs both by activation of P2Y (purinergic) receptors by extracellular nucleotides, resulting in "fast" ICW, and by gap junctional communication in cells that express connexin43 (Cx43), resulting in "slow" ICW. Human osteoblastic cells transmit intercellular calcium signals by both of these mechanisms. In the current studies we have examined the mechanism of slow gap junction-dependent ICW in osteoblastic cells. In ROS rat osteoblastic cells, gap junction-dependent ICW were inhibited by removal of extracellular calcium, plasma membrane depolarization by high extracellular potassium, and the L-type voltage-operated calcium channel inhibitor, nifedipine. In contrast, all these treatments enhanced the spread of P2 receptor-mediated ICW in UMR rat osteoblastic cells. Using UMR cells transfected to express Cx43 (UMR/Cx43) we confirmed that nifedipine sensitivity of ICW required Cx43 expression. In human osteoblastic cells, gap junction-dependent ICW also required activation of L-type calcium channels and influx of extracellular calcium.

Non-NASA Center

Using Bayesian Networks for Candidate Generation in Consistency-based Diagnosis

Consistency-based diagnosis relies heavily on the assumption that discrepancies between model predictions and sensor observations can be detected accurately. When sources of uncertainty like sensor noise and model abstraction exist robust schemes have to be designed to make a binary decision on whether predictions are consistent with observations. This risks the occurrence of false alarms and missed alarms when an erroneous decision is made. Moreover when multiple sensors (with differing sensing properties) are available the degree of match between predictions and observations can be used to guide the search for fault candidates. In this paper we propose a novel approach to handle this problem using Bayesian networks. In the consistency- based diagnosis formulation, automatically generated Bayesian networks are used to encode a probabilistic measure of fit between predictions and observations. A Bayesian network inference algorithm is used to compute most probable fault candidates.

Narasimhan, Sriram

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference using Clique Tree Growth Curves

Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves.

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob

Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale Bayesian networks by composition. This compositional approach reflects how (often redundant) subsystems are architected to form systems such as electrical power systems. We develop high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems. The largest among these 24 Bayesian networks contains over 1,000 random variables. Another BN represents the real-world electrical power system ADAPT, which is representative of electrical power systems deployed in aerospace vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the scalability of the compositional approach, we briefly report on experimental results from the diagnostic competition DXC, where the ProADAPT team, using techniques discussed here, obtained the highest scores in both Tier 1 (among 9 international competitors) and Tier 2 (among 6 international competitors) of the industrial track. While we consider diagnosis of power systems specifically, we believe this work is relevant to other system health management problems, in particular in dependable systems such as aircraft and spacecraft. (See CASI ID 20100021910 for supplemental data disk.)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob

Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

This CD contains files that support the talk (see CASI ID 20100021404). There are 24 models that relate to the ADAPT system and 1 Excel worksheet. In the paper an investigation into the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems is described. The high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems are described in the talk. The data in the CD are the models of the 24 different power systems.

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob

Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

Knox, W. Bradley

Software Health Management: A Short Review of Challenges and Existing Techniques

Modern spacecraft (as well as most other complex mechanisms like aircraft, automobiles, and chemical plants) rely more and more on software, to a point where software failures have caused severe accidents and loss of missions. Software failures during a manned mission can cause loss of life, so there are severe requirements to make the software as safe and reliable as possible. Typically, verification and validation (V&V) has the task of making sure that all software errors are found before the software is deployed and that it always conforms to the requirements. Experience, however, shows that this gold standard of error-free software cannot be reached in practice. Even if the software alone is free of glitches, its interoperation with the hardware (e.g., with sensors or actuators) can cause problems. Unexpected operational conditions or changes in the environment may ultimately cause a software system to fail. Is there a way to surmount this problem? In most modern aircraft and many automobiles, hardware such as central electrical, mechanical, and hydraulic components are monitored by IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) systems. These systems can recognize, isolate, and identify faults and failures, both those that already occurred as well as imminent ones. With the help of diagnostics and prognostics, appropriate mitigation strategies can be selected (replacement or repair, switch to redundant systems, etc.). In this short paper, we discuss some challenges and promising techniques for software health management (SWHM). In particular, we identify unique challenges for preventing software failure in systems which involve both software and hardware components. We then present our classifications of techniques related to SWHM. These classifications are performed based on dimensions of interest to both developers and users of the techniques, and hopefully provide a map for dealing with software faults and failures.

Pipatsrisawat, Knot

Methods for Probabilistic Fault Diagnosis: An Electrical Power System Case Study

Health management systems that more accurately and quickly diagnose faults that may occur in different technical systems on-board a vehicle will play a key role in the success of future NASA missions. We discuss in this paper the diagnosis of abrupt continuous (or parametric) faults within the context of probabilistic graphical models, more specifically Bayesian networks that are compiled to arithmetic circuits. This paper extends our previous research, within the same probabilistic setting, on diagnosis of abrupt discrete faults. Our approach and diagnostic algorithm ProDiagnose are domain-independent; however we use an electrical power system testbed called ADAPT as a case study. In one set of ADAPT experiments, performed as part of the 2009 Diagnostic Challenge, our system turned out to have the best performance among all competitors. In a second set of experiments, we show how we have recently further significantly improved the performance of the probabilistic model of ADAPT. While these experiments are obtained for an electrical power system testbed, we believe they can easily be transitioned to real-world systems, thus promising to increase the success of future NASA missions.

Ricks, Brian W.

The Diagnostic Challenge Competition: Probabilistic Techniques for Fault Diagnosis in Electrical Power Systems

Reliable systems health management is an important research area of NASA. A health management system that can accurately and quickly diagnose faults in various on-board systems of a vehicle will play a key role in the success of current and future NASA missions. We introduce in this paper the ProDiagnose algorithm, a diagnostic algorithm that uses a probabilistic approach, accomplished with Bayesian Network models compiled to Arithmetic Circuits, to diagnose these systems. We describe the ProDiagnose algorithm, how it works, and the probabilistic models involved. We show by experimentation on two Electrical Power Systems based on the ADAPT testbed, used in the Diagnostic Challenge Competition (DX 09), that ProDiagnose can produce results with over 96% accuracy and less than 1 second mean diagnostic time.

Ricks, Brian W.

Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks

Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that expected hitting time is a rational function - i.e. a ratio of two polynomials - of the probability of applying an additive search operator. Experimentally, we report on synthetically generated BNs as well as BNs from applications, and compare SGSs performance to that of Hugin, which performs BN inference by compilation to and propagation in clique trees. On synthetic networks, SGS speeds up computation by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to Hugin. In application networks, our approach is highly competitive in Bayesian networks with a high degree of determinism. In addition to showing that stochastic local search can be competitive with clique tree clustering, our empirical results provide an improved understanding of the circumstances under which portfolio-based SLS outperforms clique tree clustering and vice versa.

Mengshoel, Ole J.

ISWHM: Tools and Techniques for Software and System Health Management

This presentation presents status and results of research on Software Health Management done within the NRA "ISWHM: Tools and Techniques for Software and System Health Management." Topics include: Ingredients of a Guidance, Navigation, and Control System (GN and C); Selected GN and C Testbed example; Health Management of major ingredients; ISWHM testbed architecture; and Conclusions and next Steps.

Schumann, Johann

Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks

For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.

Mengshoel, Ole J.

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Mengshoel, Ole J.