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At least 55 records · Page 3

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants’ runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12–24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Big Hole Drilling Support for Nuclear Testing, 1985-1992: An Architectural Survey of the Area 1 Subdock, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) planned to demolish two buildings at the Area 1 Subdock at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada, to meet environmental management mission requirements. A review was conducted under Title 54 United States Code (USC) § 306101 (commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act) and its implementing regulations, 36 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 800. As a result, a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) was developed to mitigate the effects of the building demolitions. Stipulation III.B of the MOA requires an architectural survey of the Area 1 Subdock. Prior to this survey, the Subdock had not been systematically recorded. Therefore, an area of approximately 33 hectares (81 acres) was surveyed for historic properties by Desert Research Institute personnel. This effort resulted in the identification, recording, and evaluation of the potential Area 1 Subdock Historic District (SHPO Resource No. D377), including the identification of its contributing components. This district is recommended as eligible for the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) under Criteria A and C. It contains 14 primary resources which include individual buildings, structures, storage yards, and infrastructure. Of these resources, all except one are recommended as elements that contribute to the district during its period of significance corresponding to nuclear testing from 1985 through 1992. Four of the resources (B18847, B18848, S2772, S2773) are recommended as individually eligible for the NRHP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temporal Explosion Source Processes of Declared Nuclear Tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

In this work we highlight a preliminary temporal source analysis of the six declared Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear tests. We use regional seismic data to estimate relative source time functions (RSTFs) via iterative time-domain deconvolution (Ammon, 2006; Pippin, 2022) of vertical-component ground motions recorded within 2000 km of the source region. Since RSTFs are ideally independent of site and propagation effects, their amplitude spectrum is equivalent to the source spectral ratio, but they also retain phase information. We compare observed RSTFs (in the time and frequency domains) with synthetic RSTFs derived from the Mueller & Murphy (1971) explosion source model. The resolution of these time functions varies, however, we generally obtain high-quality results within the limitations of the recording broadband instrumentation. The results indicate that this method effectively preserves source time-history information that can be used for temporal analysis of remote nuclear explosions. This preliminary analysis is intended to assess the viability of using time-domain deconvolution methods for extracting temporal source information.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Full Moment Tensor Solutions of U.S. Underground Nuclear Tests for Event Screening and Yield Estimation

Moment tensor (MT) solutions are proving increasingly valuable in explosion monitoring, especially now that they are more routinely calculated for the unconstrained, full (six component) MT. In this study, we have calculated MTs for U.S. underground nuclear tests conducted at the Nevada National Security Site using seismic recordings primarily from the Livermore Nevada Network. We are able to determine them for 130 nuclear explosions from 1970 to 1996 for a range of yields and under a variety of material conditions, which we have supplemented with 10 additional chemical explosions at the test site. The result is an extensive database of MTs that can be used to assess the performance of important monitoring tasks such as event identification and yield determination. We test the explosion event screening on the fundamental lune of the MT eigensphere and find MT screening to be a robust discriminant between earthquakes and explosions. We then explore the estimation of moment-derived yield, in which we find that material properties are the largest contributor to differences in the estimated moment-to-yield ratio. Additionally, further research conducted on this dataset can be used to develop, test, and improve various explosion monitoring methodologies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Non-Nuclear Testing of Compact Reactor Technologies at NASA MSFC

Safe, reliable, compact, autonomous, long-life fission systems have numerous potential applications, both terrestrially and in space. Technologies and facilities developed in support of these systems could be useful to a variety of concepts. At moderate power levels, fission systems can be designed to operate for decades without the need for refueling. In addition, fast neutron damage to cladding and structural materials can be maintained at an acceptable level. Nuclear design codes have advanced to the stage where high confidence in the behavior and performance of a system can be achieved prior to initial testing. To help ensure reactor affordability, an optimal strategy must be devised for development and qualification. That strategy typically involves a combination of non-nuclear and nuclear testing. Non-nuclear testing is particularly useful for concepts in which nuclear operating characteristics are well understood and nuclear effects such as burnup and radiation damage are not likely to be significant. To be mass efficient, a SFPS must operate at higher coolant temperatures and use different types of power conversion than typical terrestrial reactors. The primary reason is the difficulty in rejecting excess heat to space. Although many options exist, NASA s current reference SFPS uses a fast spectrum, pumped-NaK cooled reactor coupled to a Stirling power conversion subsystem. The reference system uses technology with significant terrestrial heritage while still providing excellent performance. In addition, technologies from the SFPS system could be applicable to compact terrestrial systems. Recent non-nuclear testing at NASA s Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF) has helped assess the viability of the reference SFPS and evaluate methods for system integration. In July, 2011 an Annular Linear Induction Pump (ALIP) provided by Idaho National Laboratory was tested at the EFF-TF to assess performance and verify suitability for use in a10 kWe technology demonstration unit (TDU). In November, 2011 testing of a 37-pin core simulator (designed in conjunction with Los Alamos National Laboratory) for use with the TDU will occur. Previous testing at the EFFTF has included the thermal and mechanical coupling of a pumped NaK loop to Stirling engines (provided by GRC). Testing related to heat pipe cooled systems, gas cooled systems, heat exchangers, and other technologies has also been performed. Integrated TDU testing will begin at GRC in 2013. Thermal simulators developed at the EFF-TF are capable of operating over the temperature and power range typically of interest to compact reactors. Small and large diameter simulators have been developed, and simulators (coupled with the facility) are able to closely match the axial and radial power profile of all potential systems of interest. A photograph of the TDU core simulator during assembly is provided in Figure 2.

Houts, Michael G.↗

Timing system for firing widely spaced test nuclear detonations

The national weapons design laboratories (Los Alamos National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) test fire nuclear devices at the Nevada Test Site (NTS), which is spread over an area of over 1200 square miles (a bit larger than the state of Rhode island). On each test there are hundreds of high time resolution recordings made of nuclear output waveforms and other phenomena. In order to synchronize these recordings with each other, with the nuclear device, and with offsite recordings, there is a requirement that the permanent command center and the outlying temporary firing sites be time tied to each other and to UTC to permit firing the shot at a predetermined time with an accuracy of about a microsecond. The system is so designed that this can reduce to about 100 nanoseconds if it should prove necessary in the future.

Ralph E. Partridge↗

Finding, Organizing, and Preserving Legacy Nuclear Test Monitoring Data—Examples from the Livermore Nevada Network

A challenge for geophysical research is the relatively short time for which continuous digital data have been available. There are many events of research interest where much of the data were collected by analog or temporary digital means. These legacy data require special efforts to find, organize, and preserve for future research. Here, we focus on one type of legacy data, nuclear explosions, and associated events (e.g., collapses, aftershocks) of high interest for nuclear monitoring research and development. For nuclear tests conducted in Nevada, the Lawrence Livermore Nevada Network recorded valuable data on a variety of formats. In this article, we briefly review this network, and describe one set of data that previously was available via CD-ROM by request, and since 2018 has become available through Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology as assembled dataset 18-001.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multi-modal tomographic imaging system for poolside characterization of nuclear test fuels: Design considerations and studies

Testing and qualification of advanced nuclear fuels involves an iterative process of prototyping, in-pile irradiation testing, and in-situ or ex-situ examination. Fuel restructuring and fission product migration during burnup are among the most important aspects of fuel evolution that affect several important performance characteristics such as heat removal, accident tolerance, and fission product retention. Pool-side non-destructive characterization techniques provide fuel developers with tools to understand fuel evolution at different points of burnup. A design for a compact, submersible, and multi-modal gamma-ray tomography system for imaging irradiated nuclear fuel is presented here. Detector selection, collimator geometry and fabrication, mechanical design, imaging protocol and acquisition speed are discussed. Modeling calculations show that sub-millimeter resolution can be achieved in both transmission computed tomography images as well as in emission computed tomography images in a matter of hours. Several design compromises and fabrication challenges are discussed which should be taken into consideration for future submersible gamma-ray tomography instruments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

US Nuclear Testing: Health Consequences and Policy Decisions

With the approval of President Franklin D. Roosevelt to begin the research on a nuclear bomb in 1941 to the last test conducted by the U.S. in 1992, the fifty-year history of the nuclear weapons testing program has been an expansive topic of research. The program's growth is credited to the race to build the first atomic weapon for war. The termination of the Soviet Union and many other factors, including concerns about the adverse health effects of radioactive fallout, influenced the decline of the need for the program. The discovery of the negative health effects caused by low-level radiation and the subsequent studies influenced sitting U.S. presidents in passing policies that significantly impacted the nuclear weapons testing program.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Review of Cavity Radius and Chimney Height Information for Underground Nuclear Tests at Nevada National Security Site

Underground nuclear explosions release an immense amount of thermal and mechanical energy that alter the geologic materials surrounding the “working point” (WP = underground location) of the detonation. Explosion effects produce mechanically and thermally altered zones such as the “cavity,” “chimney,” and “melt glass puddle,”as well as concentric zones of crushed, compressed, and fractured rock extending away from the cavity wall.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The U.S. Nuclear Test History

This paper describes a desktop application designed to introduce users to unclassified information for the series of nuclear experiments conducted by the United States, colloquially referred to within the nuclear weapons design community as simply, the “Test History.” The application facilitates simple browsing (by name, by date, and MMDD date code), and more complex analyses based on user-defiend relational database queries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Using isotope shift for testing nuclear theory: The case of nobelium isotopes

We calculate field isotope shifts for nobelium atoms using nuclear charge distributions which come from different nuclear models.We demonstrate that comparing calculated isotope shifts with experiment can serve as a testing ground for nuclear theories. It also provides a way of extracting parameters of nuclear charge distribution beyond nuclear root mean square (rms) radius, e.g., parameter of quadrupole deformation β. The measurements of at least two atomic transitions is needed to disentangle the contributions of the changes in deformation and nuclear rms radius into field isotopic shift. We argue that a previous interpretation of the isotope measurements in terms of δ < r 2 > between 252,254 No isotopes should be amended when nuclear deformation is taken into account. As a result, we calculate isotope shifts for other known isotopes and for hypothetically metastable isotope 286 No for which the predictions of nuclear models differ substantially.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On Magnitudes and Inferred Yields of the 39 Underground Nuclear Test Explosions at the Novaya Zemlya Test Site

ABSTRACT We review the previously compiled seismic magnitudes for underground nuclear explosions at the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics Novaya Zemlya Test Site, and analyze these data in the context of published details about individual tests and official Russian reports of annual cumulative explosive energy release at the test site. We derive relationships between teleseismic body wave magnitude mb and explosive yield Y by predicting the yield of each test using mb and minimizing the difference between predicted and reported annual cumulative yield. A linear relationship between mb and logY with a slope of 0.82 provides a good fit to the annual total yield, with a root mean square (rms) misfit of 0.095 logY units. A spectral magnitude relationship based on the explosion source model of Mueller and Murphy (1971) with a single-free-parameter provides a slightly better fit. For the 10 tests for which individual yields can be directly deduced from the official reports, the rms misfit of reported yields is less than 0.1 logY units or about 25%. More complex relationships that differentiate between the northern and southern test areas, or take account of variations in the scaled depth of burial, do not provide substantially better fits to the reported yields.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Source Characterization of the Declared North Korean Nuclear Tests From Regional Distance Coda Wave Spectral Ratios

Abstract Seismic observations of underground nuclear explosions provide crucial data on source yield and depth that cannot easily be estimated from other geophysical methods. However, it is difficult to obtain reliable yield estimates for test sites for which we do not have direct seismic calibration experiments. To obtain source information from uncalibrated sites and paths, local and regional seismic records of six, proximal, declared underground nuclear explosions in North Korea are used to compute spectral ratios of narrow‐band waveform envelopes of body‐wave coda that remove path and site effects to reveal precise, relative source moment. The yields of these explosions are obtained from the observed source ratios by simultaneously fitting the classical source model of Mueller and Murphy (1971), https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0610061675 to all event pairs. The source model provides an impressive fit to the observations considering that the P phase coda derived source spectral ratios did not require a prior knowledge of the source or regionally calibrated corrections to be applied to the data. However, the observed corner frequencies from S wave coda spectral ratios are lower than the source model predictions, but are well fit by models calculated using the corner frequency consistent with the Fisk conjecture. The results presented here provide novel constraints on the spectral distributions of the energy radiated by the sources of the DPRK test series, and allows for an independent evaluation of existing estimated source model parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗