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DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Modeling Pipeline for Extracting Nuclear Proliferation Events of Interest from Open Data Sources (U)

In FY2020, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University entered a collaboration funded by Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development. The project’s mission was to take the first steps toward developing a demonstration prototype system that uses multiple machine learning and data analytics methods on largescale open data sources to identify new, developing, and/or undeclared nuclear programs. Given the SRNL team’s on-site perspective of events culminating in the DOE’s decision to pursue the Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility (SRPPF), the team targeted the identification of events and indicators in retrospective datasets that pointed to the activity of “fissile core fabrication at the Savannah River Site” prior to the official announcement in May of 2018. A preliminary modeling pipeline was developed in FY20 that showed the datasets contained adequate signal for continuation of efforts. In FY21, a modular demonstration prototype modeling pipeline has continued in development for two text-based data sources: a broad internet archive (Webhose Ltd.) and a decahose Twitter database (i.e., a global sampling of one in every ten Tweets). The techniques that have been developed rely on graph theory and anomaly detection to identify contextual shifts in key words and phrases at various points in time such that indicators of events of interest could be identified and subsequently, events could be extracted from the corpuses. The foundational concept behind the approaches is that contextual shifts in key words and phrases can act as indicators of events of interest. Both datasets have proven successful in extracting events of interest related to pit production at the Savannah River Site prior to the official announcement. In addition, the pipelines have generated a wide range of events broadly summarized as: the awarding of DOE contracts at major sites, DOE investments in various programs, accidents at DOE national laboratories, speculations about the fate of pit production in the DOE complex, domestic and international shipments and receipts of nuclear materials at DOE sites, termination of non-proliferation agreements with Russia, termination of MOX, new weapons development approvals/testing, nuclear posture reviews, major DOE cleanup/production milestones, political opinions, and nuclear watch groups’ opinions, among many others.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring very low radiation doses in PTFE for nuclear forensic enrichment reconstruction

Every country that has made nuclear weapons has used uranium enrichment to do so. Despite the centrality of this technology to international security, there is still no reliable physical marker of past enrichment in the open literature that can be used to perform forensic verification of historically produced weapons on gas centrifuges. We show that the extremely low radioactivity from uranium alpha emissions during enrichment leaves detectable and irreversible calorimetric signatures in the common enrichment gasket material PTFE, allowing for historical reconstruction of past enrichment activities at a sensitivity better than one weapon’s quantity of highly enriched uranium. Fast scanning calorimetry also enables the measurement of recrystallization enthalpies of sequentially microtomed slices, confirming the magnitude and the type of radiation exposure while also providing detection of tampering and a method for analyzing field samples useful for treaty verification. Furthermore, this work opens the door for common items to be turned into precise dosimeters to detect the past presence of radioactivity, nuclear materials, and related activities with high confidence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium Pyroprocessing and Electrometallurgical Treatment at the Fuel Conditioning Facility

Fuel Conditioning Facility (FCF) fulfills part of INL’s mission by reprocessing irradiated sodium-bonded fuel from the EBR-ll reactor and participates in research to further explore the fuel cycle for recovery of fuel from a variety of current reactors in use today. The fuel cycle of a nuclear reactor under the current non-proliferation act, leaves unused fuel in the spent fuel rods. The rods are safely stored until their fuel can be recovered. ? Fuel recovery from the EBR-II fuel pins has several steps to separate the uranium from the salts. The pyroprocessing technology involves high - temperatures, chemical and electrochemical methods for separating the unused uranium from the salts, fission products, and used fuel. The recovered uranium is then remixed and formed into ingots or Regulus with an enrichment of < 20% U-235. This final product is a source to fuel current nuclear reactors as well as research and development for future nuclear reactors

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resistive Coatings for High-performance, Low-background MCPs Operating Across Broad Temperature Ranges and at Cryogenic Temperatures

Microchannel plate with improved thermo-electric properties are a high risk, high payoff development undertaken by a consortium of effort that links the Argonne National Lab, the Space-Science Lab at UC Berkeley and the small businesses (Incom Inc.) that will commercialize the advanced technology in open MCPs and LAPPDs. This development will satisfy the needs for new instrumentation for homeland security (non-proliferation) sensors to screen vehicles and cargo for Special Nuclear Materials (SNMs) and scientific detectors for astrophysics, electron microscopy, time-of-flight mass spectrometry, molecular and atomic collision studies, and fluorescence imaging applications in biotechnology and medical imaging products including positron emission tomography (PET scanning).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Connecting Nuclear Security to International Frameworks on Gender and Security

The international community is slowly beginning to recognize the intersections between the law and policy on international security – particularly arms control, non-proliferation, and disarmament – and the body of human rights law that addresses gender equality. Notably absent from this discussion is the field of nuclear security. Despite its historical underpinnings as an inherently domestic activity, nuclear security is thoroughly grounded in international treaty law. Yet, nuclear security is often overlooked in the international security context and has not been well situated with international instruments that address gender equality. We argue that gender equality in nuclear security should be understood as an important component of broader efforts to achieve equal opportunities for women in work and critical to ensuring women are included in conflict prevention efforts. Linking nuclear security to broader international efforts to increase gender equality in security and conflict prevention will provide a clearer structure and framework for gender equality initiatives in the nuclear security field. This is critically important given that estimates indicate that women comprise only twenty percent of the nuclear security workforce. Moreover, situating nuclear security in a broader international legal framework will simultaneously help states meet their gender equality commitments emanating from other instruments. This paper will first analyze the relationship between nuclear security and broader international security efforts, in particular arms control treaties and non-proliferation regimes. It will then survey the relevant international and regional frameworks for gender equality, particularly those that have applicability in the security context. This paper will next explore the relationship between nuclear security and these frameworks on gender. We find that some instruments provide support for gender equality initiatives in nuclear security because of their mandate to states to provide structural gender equality, and others are particularly relevant where they call for women's participation in conflict prevention. This paper concludes with recommendations to states that are concerned about the underrepresentation of women in nuclear security.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS2016

Nonproliferation Challenges in Space Defense Technology - PANEL

The use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) almost always "helps" space fission systems. Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) and high power fission electric systems appear able to use < 20% enriched uranium with minimal / acceptable performance impacts. However, lower power, "entry level" systems may be needed for space fission technology to be developed and utilized. Low power (i.e. approx.1 kWe) fission systems may have an unacceptable performance penalty if LEU is used instead of HEU. Are there Ways to Support Non-Proliferation Objectives While Simultaneously Helping Enable the Development and Utilization of Modern Space Fission Power and Propulsion Systems?

Nuclear↗

DOE OSTI2025

Portal Monitoring Considerations for Treaty Verification Applications

Portal monitoring is one method in a suite of options for treaty verification and can assist in verification of treaty accountable items (TAIs). Portal monitor technology spans a wide range of sensors, including radiation detectors, break-beams, or weight sensors. For radiation-detecting portal monitors, they are able to confirm absence / presence of a radiological signature and to track TAI direction of motion. Portal monitoring uses measurements from strategically placed sensors (e.g., radiation detectors) to record the entry or egress of TAIs. The implementation of portal monitoring relies on three key elements: perimeter definition, portal locations, and sensor technology, and can be implemented in either time-bound or continuous operations depending on what is permitted by the Treaty.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Trade Atlas 2016-2020

Building on prior work developing a Strategic Trade Atlas promoting understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, a Nuclear Trade Atlas was developed based on publicly available trade data. The Nuclear Trade Atlas examines trade patterns and trends for seventeen commodities based on a two-step assessment of the trade’s nuclear relevance: first estimating the probability that trade classified under a given Harmonized System (HS) code represents a specific commodity included in the export control lists of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and second estimating the probability that the listed, often dual-use, commodity would be indicative of nuclear use. These estimates combine to provide a measure of the likelihood trade classified under a given HS code may be nuclear relevant. By exclusively focusing on the HS codes most highly ranked by this measure, the resulting data visualizations comprising the Nuclear Trade Atlas provide those responsible for regulating or monitoring nuclear trade greater understanding of relevant global trading patterns and trends. The Atlas includes both commodity- and country-based views of nuclear trade. It is published as a book and as an interactive tool. Besides trade data, the interactive Atlas also includes data about countries’ non-proliferation commitments, allowing users to take this information into consideration while analyzing specific trade flows.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Safety Rod Reactivity Insertion in the Advanced Test Reactor

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Future of Arms Control in a Multilateral and Multi-Domain Environment

The crisis of arms control is obvious and broadly discussed among states, within the world’s expert community and to a lesser extent the media. This crisis has at least three building blocks: Russia continues to violate or undermine key arms control treaties and commitments; China rejects to join the existing arms control architecture; and both countries heavily invest in the modernization of their armed forces, including development of the nuclear arsenals. In the current highly competitive environment, arms control is more difficult to achieve and is likely to accomplish less than what was optimistically anticipated a generation ago. The growing pressure to “save arms control at all cost”, often expressed by the Western expert community, further complicates the situation. The excessively aspirational and ideological approach to arms control – in which arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation (ADN) become a silver bullet solution – is as dangerous as security and defence policies which entirely exclude ADN. As James Cameron rightly points out, “history should teach policy-makers to look beyond formulae for strategic stability to other ways in which arms control can help to contain disruptive challenges to the balance of power and minimize the chances of war”.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Local Power Impact Experiment Design for a New Fuel Type for use in the Advanced Test Reactor

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and complimentary zero-power ATR Critical (ATRC) reactor, located at Idaho National Labs (INL), are undergoing conversion from Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). Both have a variety of testing locations that can receive large variations in flux due to its unique serpentine design, consisting of five lobes (see Figure 1). Initial criticality and power distribution throughout the core are controlled by core-external outer shim control cylinders (OSCCs). Distinct test loops allow for testing at specific temperatures, pressures, and irradiation conditions. The ATR is one of the key nuclear engineering research and testing facilities within the DOE National Laboratory Complex, and the ATRC supports its operation [1]. Currently, the Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) within the National Nuclear Security Administration of the DOE is working to convert the remaining research reactors, including the ATR, from 93% HEU fuel to 19.75% LEU fuel (LEU) to support non-proliferation [2]. Extensive materials testing at INL and internationally has demonstrated that a high-density uranium molybdenum (U 10Mo) alloy can meet the performance requirements of the remaining high powered research reactors. However, there are many technical challenges to address before the conversion to LEU can be successful, including the accurate characterization of the reactor core physics with LEU fuel. Reactor physics safety evaluations currently use Monte Carlo for the 21st Century (MC21), a continuous-energy Monte Carlo radiation transport code [3]. Existing MC21 models of the ATR and ATRC cores have a validation basis for use in neutronics analyses with HEU fuel. The models are used to support safety analyses that include comparisons to the safety requirements for the reactors. However, the use of the LOWE element in the ATR and ATRC is not currently covered by the current model validation basis. To deploy the new fuel type, extensive computational reactor physics support is necessary to support the use of LOWE in the ATR and ATRC. Therefore, LOWE requires a rigorous validation basis, aligned with that of HEU fuel, that takes advantage of the existing software tools and processes currently used for the ATR and ATRC. The experiment to validate of the MC21 models for determining power, the Power Impact Validation Experiment, will consist of two flux runs in the ATRC, one with fully HEU loading and one with a single LOWE element. Both flux runs will be instrumented with 20 sets of azimuthal fission wires and 3 sets of axial fission wires, as shown in Figure 4. Standard flux run methodology will be used [4]. Power Impact Validation Experiment data will be compared against MC21 calculated data, both for absolute fission rate accuracy and to determine the relative change in fission rates between the two runs. The results of the Power Impact Validation Experiment and subsequent evaluations will provide the validation basis for MC21 for use with LOWE elements. Key features of the Power Impact Validation Experiment include: (1) Two flux runs to allow for LOWE perturbed measurements to be compared to already validated measurements taken from a full core of HEU fuel, (2) Optimization of instrumentation to balance analytical needs with practical considerations (e.g., limited time window to count beta particles from fission products), and (3) Standard ATRC core loading, including both driver positions and flux traps, to minimize cost while remaining representative of typical ATR core loading.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives on Next Steps in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Much has happened in arms control over the last year as this chapter has been in development. The prospects for arms control as a viable national security tool have, if anything, grown darker. Russia has falsely equated tearing down the remaining arms control edifice with creating potential leverage vis-à-vis its actions in Ukraine. China has failed to update its talking points on being a responsible arms control actor with its massive nuclear force expansion. The United States has stated clearly that it is open for business on arms control and risk reduction, but it unfortunately has no customers in Russia and China. It remains unclear what specifically the United States is selling in terms of what it wants in a potential agreement. Competitive dynamics and an atmosphere of great power competition are driving all parties further away from the table.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Importance of 3-D S{sub N} depletion in non-proliferation using BSOLVE

We present a single Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) 3-D fuel rod design for depletion analysis using BSOLVE, our newly developed Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg based depletion code. BSOLVE is coupled with the deterministic 3-D S{sub N} particle transport code, PENTRAN, applied here with a 4-neutron energy group comparison to Continuous Energy (C/E) SERPENT2 Monte Carlo results. Differences are expected, as PENTRAN+BSOLVE retains full (multi-group) energy information for reactions, nuclide specific fission contributions, and energy dependent fission yields, using the latest available ENDF-BVIII data, important to retain accurate burned fuel inventories; SERPENT2 collapses burnup reactions to a single energy value. For depletion times up to ∼ 700 days and typical PWR power densities, relative differences between multigroup 3-D S{sub N} with full energy data and Monte Carlo one group burnup for trans-uranium nuclide concentrations and fission products are up to ∼20%. System eigenvalues are consistent, but with differences early and late in the cycle attributed to multigroup vs. C/E Monte Carlo cross sections. This work highlights the importance of low variance transport driven burnup for non-proliferation concerns, since plutonium quality varies significantly along axial lengths, and is more challenging to converge using Monte Carlo; details of depletion steps with spatial/zone dependent plutonium quality are provided. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Simulations of Non-Proliferation Experiments

We have implemented a set of numerical simulations to numerically investigate the outcomes of non-proliferation experiments. The high explosive (HE) in the simulations is in the form of a cylinder. The two-dimensional simulations are carried out in the r-z cylindrical coordinate, and the three-dimensional simulation is in the Cartesian coordinate. From the simulation, the cavity formed after detonation stops its expansion after about 0.15 sec. At the time the cavity stops expanding, the cavity shape seems quite spherical although the initial HE is in the shape of cylinder, but the radius in the vertical direction, which is about 19.7m, is a little less than the one in the horizonal direction, which is about 21.5m. Although there is no layer of air between the HE and tuff in real experiments, in addition to the simulations without air, we add a layer of air in one simulation to assess any possible influence of the air on the shape of the cavity.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Module D1-2 LWR Pelletized MOX Fuel Fabrication

Nature of this 2021 Module update from previous AFC-CBRs: Use of U,Pu MOX life cycle cost data from late 1970s Non-proliferation Assessment Systems Analysis Program (NASAP). This archived data has been updated in 2018-2019 to reflect today’s regulatory and economic conditions and is presented in 2017. For the lower unit cost MOX fabrication case the PuO 2 from the reprocessed LWR SNF is assumed to be fabricated immediately after aqueous PUREX reprocessing, thus minimizing the time for undesirable actinide radioisotopes, from the standpoint of radiation safety, to build in. Fabricated MOX utilizing separated and multi-year stored Pu from aqueously reprocessed SNF has also been added to this Module as a second LWR MOX fabrication variant, requiring additional and more costly glovebox design and operations to protect personnel. This new NASAP-informed data augments historical data and unit cost projections appearing in the 2009 (Shropshire et al 2009), 2012 (Dixon et al 2012), and 2017 Dixon et al 2017) AFC-CBRs. The “What-it-takes” 2017 unit fabrication cost values based on the updated NASAP studies are escalated to 2020$ for this 2021 Update Report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ab-Initio molecular dynamics simulations of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 and ternary NaCl-ThCl 4 -UCl 3 molten salts

Molten salt reactor (MSR) with Thorium (Th) fuel cycle has attracted growing attention due to its merits such as safety, low radioactive waste production, and non-proliferation. The design and safe operation of MSR rely on a thorough understanding of the thermophysical properties of molten salts over a wide range of composition and temperature. However, experimental data of Th-based molten salts are limited due to the inherent challenges of dealing with corrosive molten salts and the radioactive nature of actinides. Here, in this work, thermophysical properties including density, heat capacity, thermal expansion coefficient, and mixing energy of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 and ternary NaCl-ThCl 4 -UCl 3 molten salts are explored using ab-initio molecular dynamic simulations (AIMD) with the dDsC dispersion correction. The calculated mixing energy of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 exhibits a minimum close to the eutectic composition. The heat capacity of the mixtures is linearly dependent on the mole fraction of each component. 7-fold and 6-fold coordinated Th complexes are dominant in the mixtures. 8-fold coordinated Th complex increases with ThCl 4 fraction due to the formation of network structures. The average coordination number of Th exhibits a minimum near the eutectic composition. The minimum mixing energy for the ternary mixtures is observed in systems with a composition close to [NaCl] 0.5 [ThCl 4 ] 0.25 [UCl 3 ] 0.25 . The density positively deviates from the ideal solution in mixtures near this composition. These results are important to fill the data and knowledge gap of ThCl 4 molten salts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

FAST Irradiations, Postirradiation Examinations, and Modeling of U-Mo for Light Water Reactor Applications

Many next generation light water reactor (LWR) concepts, such as mobile small modular reactors, are seeking to use smaller core dimensions than conventional reactor types. Smaller reactor cores require an increase in fissile material to maintain reactivity. For non-proliferation purposes, enrichment increases are limited to less than 20% (high assay low enriched uranium, [HALEU]) and so higher uranium density fuels than UO 2 must be considered. To this end, uranium-molybdenum alloys were tested using the Fission Accelerated Steady-state Test (FAST) approach. The experiment test matrix is focused on identifying the temperature transition between low swelling and high fission gas retention to break away swelling and low fission gas retention. This paper documents the results of irradiation tests and post-irradiation examinations (PIE) including neutron radiography, rodlet profilometry, fission gas collection analysis, and optical metallography. The results of these tests showed that unconstrained U-Mo fuels (solid, Na-bonded rodlets) have a swelling threshold between 400-450°C with minimal fission gas release below this point. Higher temperature solid fuel showed microstructural zoning with small pore networks while lower temperature solid fuels have a uniform microstructure with large pore networks. U-Annular Mo fuels where swelling had some self-constraint imposed upon it, were shown to have much reduced swelling compared to their solid counterparts as well as very low fission gas release for irradiation temperatures up to 500°C. These initial results show that the use of U-Mo in constrained fuel geometries could be used as a high uranium density HALEU fuel for LWRs.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning Global Proliferation Expertise Evolution Using AI-Driven Analytics and Public Information

Detecting and anticipating global proliferation expertise and capability evolution from unstructured, noisy, and incomplete public data streams is a highly desired, but extremely challenging task. Here, in this article, we present our pioneering data-driven approach to support the non-proliferation mission to detect and explain the evolution of proliferation expertise and capability development globally from terabytes of publicly available information (PAI), focusing on our knowledge extraction pipeline and descriptive analytics. We first discuss how we fuse nine open-source data streams, including multilingual data, to convert 4 TB of unstructured data to structured knowledge and encode dynamically evolving proliferation expertise representations—content and context graphs. For this, we rely on natural language processing (NLP) and deep learning (DL) models to perform information extraction, topic modeling, and distributed text representation (aka embedding) learning. We then present interactive, usable, and explainable descriptive analytics to refine domain knowledge and present it in a human-understandable form. Finally, we introduce future work avenues that will leverage our dynamic knowledge representations and descriptive analytics to enable predictive and prescriptive inferences to achieve real-time domain understanding and contextual reasoning about global proliferation expertise and capability evolution.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗