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Recent H - ion source research and development at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

The U.S. Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is a state-of-the-art neutron scattering facility delivering the world's most intense pulsed neutron beams to a wide array of instruments which are used to conduct investigations in many fields of science and engineering. Neutrons are produced from spallation of liquid Hg by bombardment of short (~1 μs), intense (~35 A) pulses of protons delivered at 60 Hz by a storage ring which is fed by a high-intensity, ~1 GeV H - LINAC. This facility has operated almost continuously since 2006, with ion source performance increasing over those years, and currently providing 50–60 mA of H - ions with a duty-factor of 6% for maintenance-free runs of several months with near 100% availability. Ion source research and development at ORNL has played a key role in enabling and supporting this success: this report provides an update on some of the ongoing ion source research and development efforts which have been undertaken since the previous Negative Ion Beams and Sources (NIBS) conference in 2020. These include significant improvements to H - beam current by extraction from a larger source outlet aperture and improvements to the electron dumping system which should eliminate the gradual loss of electrode voltage over the course of a run which has occasionally impacted SNS operations. Improvement and simplification of the plasma ignition system for the external antenna ion source, a long-standing problem, was also realized. Lastly, RF coupling efficiency was measured for both the SNS internal and external antenna ion sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Supporting Growth of a Skilled Workforce in the Building Energy Efficiency Industry (Final Technical Report)

The Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC), having worked for well over a decade to develop national networks and best practices focused on attracting and training high quality workers for the clean energy industries, sought to address shortfalls in skilled workers who build, retrofit, operate, and maintain energy efficient buildings. Through this project, IREC created and promoted a Green Buildings Career Map (GBCM)—a career awareness and recruitment tool—that seeks to boost the nationwide growth of workers entering the energy efficiency (EE) industry. Working with a team of subject matter experts and our partner organizations—Building Performance Association (BPA), Building Performance Institute (BPI), Community Action Partnership (CAP), and the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS)—IREC produced an interactive, engaging career map to attract and motivate individuals into pursuing careers in energy efficiency, and in support of the Weatherization Assistance Program. The GBCM was designed for a broad audience including educators, career advisors, employers, policymakers, workforce professionals, and jobseekers who may otherwise have little or no awareness of the exciting and rewarding opportunities within targeted industry sectors. Most individuals seeking careers do not know about the breadth of careers awaiting them in the built environment and the same is true for most career and guidance counselors, educators, and parents. The GBCM provides this broad audience with a vision of the myriad jobs that could lead to a long-standing career in energy efficiency. The GBCM describes diverse occupations across the EE industry, charts possible progression between those occupations, and identifies the training, skills, and credentials necessary to do them well.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Energy Savings Results from Small Commercial Building Retrofits in the US

Small commercial buildings, or those comprising less than 50,000 square feet of floor area, represent 94% of U.S commercial buildings by count and consume approximately 8% of the nation’s primary energy; as such, they represent a largely unexploited opportunity for energy savings. Small commercial buildings also represent a large economic market—the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) estimated the small commercial retrofit market at USD 35.6 billion. Despite the prominence of small commercial buildings and the economic opportunity for energy retrofits, many energy efficiency programs focus on large commercial buildings, and create efficiency solutions that do not meet the needs of the small commercial market. This paper presents an analysis of 34 small commercial case study projects that implemented energy efficiency retrofits. This paper contributes to the existing building retrofit body of knowledge in the following ways: (1) it identifies the decision criteria used by small commercial building stakeholders that decided to complete an energy retrofit; (2) it identifies the most commonly implemented efficiency measures in small commercial buildings, and discusses why this is the case; and (3) it provides empirical evidence about the efficacy of installing single energy efficiency measures (EEMs) compared to packages of EEMs in small commercial buildings by reporting verified energy savings. To the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to catalog decision criteria and energy savings for the existing small commercial buildings market, and this research illustrates that small commercial building decision-makers seem most motivated to retrofit their spaces by energy cost savings and operational concerns. Furthermore, small commercial building decision-makers opted to implement single-system retrofits in fifteen (15) of the thirty-four cases studied. Finally, this research documents the improved savings, in the small commercial buildings market, associated with a more integrated package of EEMs compared to a single-system approach, achieving approximately 10% energy savings for a single-system approach and more than 20% energy savings for integrated approaches. These savings translate to CO2 savings of 1,324,000 kgCO2/year to 2,647,000 kgCO2/year, respectively, assuming small commercial buildings are retrofit at a rate of 0.95% of the stock annually.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

High Rate Sodium Storage Mechanisms in Non-Graphitic Carbons

Lithium ion batteries (LIBs) have been commercialized as electrical energy storage devices in many common applications. Unlike lithium, sodium (Na) is both easy to find and is inexpensive, with wide supplies of precursors available on land and from salt water through desalination. Hybrid sodium ion capacitors and dedicated high power sodium ion batteries (NIBs) are emerging extremely fast charge time systems that employ two-dimensional carbon electrodes to store the charge. They are finding use in regenerative braking energy storage for cars, busses and public rail. To date, fast charge storage mechanisms in two-dimensional carbons are not understood. This combined experimental – simulation research will provide new fundamental insight into these unexplored but essential aspects of Na storage. A range of carbon structures and chemistries will be analyzed using advanced methods, including neutron scattering and first principles simulation. This work will yield the first new series of scientific insights on where in the carbon structure the Na ions reside and on their transport characteristics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

High Capacity Adsorption—Dominated Potassium and Sodium Ion Storage in Activated Crumpled Graphene

In this study, structurally and chemically defective activated-crumbled graphene (A-CG) is employed to achieve unique synergy of large reversible potassium (K) and sodium (Na) ion storage capacity with fast charging and extended cyclability. A-CG synthesis consists of low temperature spraying of graphene oxide slurry, followed by partial reduction annealing and air activation. For K storage, the reversible capacities are 340 mAh g -1 at 0.04 A g -1 , 261 mAh g -1 at 0.5 A g -1 , and 210 mAh g -1 at 2 A g -1 . For Na storage, the reversible capacities are 280 mAh g -1 at 0.04 A g -1 , 191 mAh g -1 at 0.5 A g -1 , and 151 mAh g -1 at 2 A g -1 . A-CG shows a stable intermediate rate (0.5 Ag -1 ) cycling with both K and Na, with minimal fade after 2800 and 8000 cycles. These are among the most favorable capacity—rate capability—cyclability combinations recorded for potassium-ion battery and sodium-ion battery carbons. Electroanalytical studies (cyclic voltammetry, galvanostatic intermittent titration technique, b -value) and density functional theory (DFT) reveal that enhanced electrochemical performance originates from ion adsorption at various defects, such as Stone–Wales defects. Moreover, DFT highlights enhanced thermodynamic stability of A-CG with adsorbed K versus with adsorbed Na, explaining the unexpected higher reversible capacity with the former.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗