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Report of the 2025 Workshop on Next-Generation Ecosystems for Scientific Computing: Harnessing Community, Software, and AI for Cross-Disciplinary Team Science

This report summarizes insights from the 2025 Workshop on Next-Generation Ecosystems for Scientific Computing: Harnessing Community, Software, and AI for Cross-Disciplinary Team Science, which convened more than 40 experts from national laboratories, academia, industry, and community organizations to chart a path toward more powerful, sustainable, and collaborative scientific software ecosystems. To address urgent challenges at the intersection of high-performance computing (HPC), AI, and scientific software, participants envisioned agile, robust ecosystems built through socio-technical co-design—the intentional integration of social and technical components as interdependent parts of a unified strategy. This approach combines advances in AI, HPC, and software with new models for cross-disciplinary collaboration, training, and workforce development. Key recommendations include building modular, trustworthy AI-enabled scientific software systems; enabling scientific teams to integrate AI systems into their workflows while preserving human creativity, trust, and scientific rigor; and creating innovative training pipelines that keep pace with rapid technological change. Pilot projects were identified as near-term catalysts, with initial priorities focused on hybrid AI/HPC infrastructure, cross-disciplinary collaboration and pedagogy, responsible AI guidelines, and prototyping of public-private partnerships. This report presents a vision of next-generation ecosystems for scientific computing where AI, software, hardware, and human expertise are interwoven to drive discovery, expand access, strengthen the workforce, and accelerate scientific progress.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Hydrodynamic Predictions for the Next Outburst of T Coronae Borealis: It Will Be the Brightest Classical or Recurrent Nova Ever Observed in X-Rays*

T Coronae Borealis (TCrB) is a recurrent nova with recorded outbursts in 1866 and 1946 and possible outbursts in 1217 and 1787. It is predicted to explode again in 2025 or 2026 based on multiple observational studies. The system consists of a massive ( M wd ≳ 1.35 M ⊙ ) white dwarf (WD) and a red giant (M3–M4 III). We have performed 1D hydrodynamic simulations with NOVA to predict the behavior of the next outburst. These simulations consist of a range of mass accretion rates onto ∼1.35 M ⊙ WDs, designed to bound the conditions necessary to achieve ignition of an explosion after an ≈80 yr interoutburst period. We have used both carbon–oxygen and oxygen–neon initial compositions, in order to include the possible ejecta abundances to be measured in the observations of the next outburst. As the WD in the TCrB system is observed to be massive, theoretical predictions reported here imply that the WD is growing in mass as a consequence of the thermonuclear runaway. Therefore, the secular evolution of the WD may allow it to approach the Chandrasekhar limit and either explode as a Type Ia supernova or undergo accretion-induced collapse, depending on its underlying composition. We have followed the evolution of just the WD, after removing the ejected matter from the surface layers. Our intent is to illuminate the mystery of the unique, second maximum in the two well-observed outbursts and we have found conditions that bracket the predictions.

Cataclysmic variable stars

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

EVs@Scale Next-Gen Profiles - EV Profile Capture 2024

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium Next-Gen Profiles (NGP) project, the profile capture and analysis of production electric vehicles undergoing high power charging (HPC) is conducted over a wide range of conditions to explore variance and performance. Charge session parameters are collected from both the electric vehicle (EV) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at a rate of 10Hz and entered into a time-series database for analysis. These charge profiles are captured under nominal and off-nominal conditions, exploring the impact of battery state of charge (SOC), battery temperature, vehicle condition, smart charge management (SCM), and EVSE limitations. Nominal conditions are defined to be ideal conditions that should transfer the maximum allowable energy in the minimum possible amount of time. Nominal condition profiles are compared across EVs to characterize state-of-the-art EV charging performance against one another. Off-nominal condition profiles are compared against its nominal condition profile counterpart to highlight the variance across less desirable starting conditions within a single EV. This EV Profile Capture 2024 report stands as an update from the EV Profile Capture 2023 report to include the additional EV & EVSE assets tested and analyzed in 2024. The major updates within this report include the addition of three next-generation electric vehicles, added test cases, and further analysis. This expansion of analysis includes power profiles, power distribution, quantifying SOC, energy and range performance, EVSE limitation impacts, boost converter performance, etc. Additionally, NGP time-series data has been used as input towards three national laboratory-led grid modelling efforts: ANL’s IEEE-37 HIL model, INL’s Caldera model, and NREL’s EVI-X model. A summary of these platforms and how NGP has worked to improve their effectiveness has also been added to this years’ report.

Thurston, Sam

Optimizing flow condensation models for next-generation refrigerants in axial micro-fin aluminum tubes

To support the transition to next-generation refrigerants, accurate modelling of heat transfer and pressure drop is essential for designing efficient heat exchangers. Current models, largely based on traditional refrigerants and unexpanded micro-fin tubes, may not reliably predict performance for new refrigerants and expanded micro-fin geometries. This study evaluates four condensation models using experimental data for six A2L refrigerants: R-32, R-454B, R-454C, R-455A, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E). For heat transfer models, the Han and Lee (2005) model initially yields the best accuracy (mean absolute Deviation, MAD = 22.1%). To further improve predictions, a correction factor reduces the Cavallini et al. (2009) model’s MAD from 68.2% to 15.4%, while optimization of the Kedzierski and Goncalves (1997) model achieves a MAD of 13.1%. For pressure drop, the Cavallini et al. (1997) model proves most accurate (MAD = 6.4%), with the simpler Haraguchi et al. (1993) model also effective (MAD = 9.4%). Keywords: Flow condensation models, heat transfer coefficient, frictional pressure drop, next-generation refrigerants, aluminum micro-fin tubes

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)

Electroluminescence Yield Measurements in Xenon Gas with the NEXT-DEMO++ Detector

The NEXT-DEMO++ detector, a high-pressure xenon gas time projection chamber serving as a prototype for the NEXT-100 experiment, was used to measure the electroluminescence (EL) yield as a function of reduced electric field ($E/p$) across pressures from 2.0 to 9.4 bar, utilizing the 41.5 keV de-excitation peak of $^{83m}$Kr. These measurements were made to examine the pressure dependence of the slope of the reduced EL yield $Y/p$, which has shown inconsistencies in the literature. The reduced yield was fitted with a linear model, revealing a modest ($\sim$5%) change in slope, beginning around 5 bar and increasing with pressure up to 9.4 bar.

Renner, J. [Valencia U., IFIC]

Flow Boiling Pressure Drop Characteristics of Next-generation Refrigerants in a Micro‑fin Copper Tube

This paper presents experimental frictional pressure-drop data for flow boiling of R-410A, R-134a, and next-generation alternatives R-454C, R-455A, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E) in a horizontal micro-fin copper tube. Tests were conducted over a range of mass fluxes and evaporation temperatures to characterize refrigerant-dependent two-phase pressure-drop behavior. The results show that frictional pressure gradient increased with mass flux and vapor quality and generally increased as evaporation temperature decreased, with liquid viscosity strongly affecting the observed trends. Among the evaluated correlations, the Goto et al. (2001) model gave the best overall agreement with the measurements before optimization. Further optimization of the Kuo and Wang (1996) and Goto et al. (2001) models reduced the overall mean absolute deviation to below 15%, with the optimized Goto (2001) model providing the most consistent predictions across all six refrigerants. The results support improved pressure-drop prediction and evaporator design for next-generation refrigerants in micro-fin tubes.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)

Effects of the next-nearest-neighbor hopping on the low-dimensional Hubbard model: ferromagnetism, antiferromagnetism, and superconductivity

The Hubbard model has attracted considerable interest due to its prototypical role in describing strongly interacting electronic systems, such as high-critical-temperature superconductors as well as many novel quantum materials. By introducing next-nearest-neighbor (NNN) hoppings to the Hubbard model, the phase diagram becomes richer, and fascinating phenomena arise in both, one-dimensional chains and square lattices, such as: antiferromagnetism, ferromagnetism, superconductivity (SC), as well as charge orders, among others. Moreover, NNN hoppings play a fundamental role in understanding effects of doping on magnetism and pairing orders in strongly interacting regimes. In this article, we review the recent progress in understanding the different competing phases of this model in one and two dimensions from a computational perspective. In conclusion, we comment on the pressing technical challenges, illustrate the controversial results concerning the emergence of the SC phase, and conclude with our perspectives on future explorations.

Hubbard model

Binder-Free Graphite Anodes for Next-Generation High-Performance Lithium-Ion Batteries

High-energy density anodes are crucial for next-generation lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) particularly for electric vehicle (EV) applications. Sluggish lithium-diffusion kinetics coupled with conventional anode fabrication processes containing polymeric binders hinder fast-charging capabilities and high-energy density of graphite. Herein, we introduce a binder-free graphite anode fabrication strategy using the electrospinning technique that contains ~2.41% carbon nanotubes (CNTs). Our strategy relies on the formation of an interconnecting conductive CNT network coupled with an ultrathin N-doped carbon coating on graphite particles from sacrificial binders. This combination enhances both structural integrity and electrical conductivity and, in turn, improves fast-charging capabilities and high energy density of LIBs. The binder-free graphite anode achieves ~335.0 mAh g–1 capacity at C/3 rate over 400 cycles with capacity retention of >95% and average Coulombic efficiencies >99.95%. These promising results suggest that the binder-free anode fabrication with a multifunctional design approach could elevate the energy-density limits of the graphite anodes, solving high-energy density requirements of EVs, and potentially provides a path forward for the development of economically feasible energy storage systems for various applications.

Ozcan, Muca [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000320020474)

Transverse momentum-dependent heavy-quark fragmentation at next-to-leading order

The transverse momentum-dependent fragmentation functions (TMD FFs) of heavy (bottom and charm) quarks, which we recently introduced, are universal building blocks that enter predictions for a large number of observables involving final-state heavy quarks or hadrons. They enable the extension of fixed-order subtraction schemes to quasi-collinear limits, and are of particular interest in their own right as probes of the nonperturbative dynamics of hadronization. In this paper we calculate all TMD FFs involving heavy quarks and the associated TMD matrix element in heavy-quark effective theory (HQET) to next-to-leading order in the strong interaction. Our results confirm the renormalization properties, large-mass, and small-mass consistency relations predicted in our earlier work. We also derive and confirm a prediction for the large-z behavior of the heavy-quark TMD FF by extending, for the first time, the formalism of joint resummation to capture quark mass effects in heavy-quark fragmentation. Our final results in position space agree with those of a recent calculation by another group that used a highly orthogonal organization of singularities in the intermediate momentum-space steps, providing a strong independent cross check. As an immediate application, we present the complete quark mass dependence of the energy-energy correlator (EEC) in the back-to-back limit at $\mathcal{O}\left({\alpha}_s\right)$.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

All order factorization for virtual Compton scattering at next-to-leading power

We discuss all-order factorization for the virtual Compton process at next-to leading power (NLP) in the Λ QCD /Q and $\sqrt{-t}$/Q expansion (twist-3), both in the double deeply-virtual case and the single-deeply-virtual case. We use the soft-collinear efective theory (SCET) as the main theoretical tool. We conclude that collinear factorization holds in the double-deeply virtual case, where both photons are far of-shell. The agreement is found with the known results for the hard matching coefcients at leading order $α^0_s$, and we can therefore connect the traditional approach with SCET. In the single-deeply-virtual case, commonly called deeply virtual Compton scattering (DVCS), the contribution of non-target collinear regions complicates the factorization. These include momentum modes collinear to the real photon and (ultra)soft interactions between the photon-collinear and target-collinear modes. However, such contributions appear only for the transversely polarized virtual photon at the NLP accuracy and in fact it is the only NLP ~ (Λ QCD /Q) 1 ~ ( $\sqrt{-t}$/Q) 1 contribution in that case. We therefore conclude that the DVCS amplitude for a longitudinally polarized virtual photon, where the leading power ~ (Λ QCD /Q) 0 ~ ($\sqrt{-t}$/Q) 0 contribution vanishes, is free of non-target collinear contributions and the collinear factorization in terms of twist-3 GPDs holds in that case as well.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Global interfertility and heterosis in sugar kelp populations: a next step in sugar kelp breeding

Abstract The potential of seaweed aquaculture is restricted by high labor, production and processing costs, leading to low economic viability. Selective breeding can improve yields and cultivation efficiency, thereby decreasing production costs. Until now, genetic resources as input for Saccharina latissimabreeding trials have been sourced strictly locally, due to concerns regarding outplanting genetically exogenous material in local waters. Here we study, for the first time, worldwide interregional fertility of the seaweedS. latissima,in order to assess the potential of including globalS. latissimagenetic resources for selective breeding with regard to heterosis. We quantified the yield (as an indicative aquacultural performance) and morphological traits of intra- and interregionalS. latissimahybrids originating from a broad range of locations in a common garden experiment. Our results show that the practical application of worldwideS. latissimagenetic resources in breeding programs is feasible based on global interfertility. We found a wide morphological diversity of hybrids and observed significant heterosis in interregional hybrids. The degree of heterosis could not be linked to geographic distance. These findings reveal that worldwide genetic resources can considerably contribute toS. latissimabreeding programs and could offer a major next step in improving yields and quality traits.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology

Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis (ANGSA): an Apollo Participating Scientist Program to Prepare the Lunar Sample Community for Artemis

As a first step in preparing for the return of samples from the Moon by the Artemis Program, NASA initiated the Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis Program (ANGSA). ANGSA was designed to function as a low-cost sample return mission and involved the curation and analysis of samples previously returned by the Apollo 17 mission that remained unopened or stored under unique conditions for 50 years. These samples include the lower portion of a double drive tube previously sealed on the lunar surface, the upper portion of that drive tube that had remained unopened, and a variety of Apollo 17 samples that had remained stored at -27 °C for approximately 50 years. ANGSA constitutes the first preliminary examination phase of a lunar “sample return mission” in over 50 years. It also mimics that same phase of an Artemis surface exploration mission, its design included placing samples within the context of local and regional geology through new orbital observations collected since Apollo and additional new “boots-on-the-ground” observations, data synthesis, and interpretations provided by Apollo 17 astronaut Harrison Schmitt. ANGSA used new curation techniques to prepare, document, and allocate these new lunar samples, developed new tools to open and extract gases from their containers, and applied new analytical instrumentation previously unavailable during the Apollo Program to reveal new information about these samples. Most of the 90 scientists, engineers, and curators involved in this mission were not alive during the Apollo Program, and it had been 30 years since the last Apollo core sample was processed in the Apollo curation facility at NASA JSC. There are many firsts associated with ANGSA that have direct relevance to Artemis. ANGSA is the first to open a core sample previously sealed on the surface of the Moon, the first to extract and analyze lunar gases collected in situ, the first to examine a core that penetrated a lunar landslide deposit, and the first to process pristine Apollo samples in a glovebox at -20 °C. All the ANGSA activities have helped to prepare the Artemis generation for what is to come. The timing of this program, the composition of the team, and the preservation of unopened Apollo samples facilitated this generational handoff from Apollo to Artemis that sets up Artemis and the lunar sample science community for additional successes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Towards the next generation of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI), as the integration of geospatial studies and AI, has become one of the fastest-developing research directions in spatial data science and geography. This rapid change in the field calls for a deeper understanding of the recent developments and envision where the field is going in the near future. In this work, we provide a quantitative analysis of the GeoAI literature from the spatial, temporal, and semantic aspects. We briefly discuss the history of AI and GeoAI by highlighting some pioneering work. Then we discuss the current landscape of GeoAI by selecting five representative subdomains including remote sensing, urban computing, Earth system science, cartography, and geospatial semantics. Finally, we highlight several unique future research directions of GeoAI which are classified into two groups: GeoAI method development challenges and GeoAI Ethics challenges. Topics include heterogeneity-aware GeoAI, knowledge-guided GeoAI, spatial representation learning, geo-foundation models, fairness-aware GeoAI, privacy-aware GeoAI, as well as interpretable and explainable GeoAI. We hope our review of GeoAI’s past, present, and future is comprehensive and can enlighten the next generation of GeoAI research.

58 GEOSCIENCES

A robust alloy design (RAD) strategy for next-generation (IV) nuclear fission reactors

Next-generation nuclear reactors demand structural materials capable of withstanding extreme conditions, including high temperatures, intense neutron flux, and corrosive environments. Multi-Principal Element Alloys (MPEAs) have emerged as promising candidates due to their exceptional radiation tolerance, thermal stability, and compositional flexibility. This study introduces a versatile and customizable Robust Alloy Design (RAD) strategy for systematically designing MPEAs for GEN-IV reactor fuel cladding. The RAD framework integrates nuclear-relevant selection criteria, empirical parameter assessments, and high-throughput CALPHAD simulations to efficiently narrow compositional space and identify stable alloys. A unified RAD score developed for the first time, combines key performance metrics, including fuel-clad chemical interaction (FCCI), neutron absorption cross-section (NAC), valence electron configuration (VEC), and melting point factor (MPF), into a flexible ranking system adaptable to reactor-specific priorities. Among 724 candidates, V555(5Al–5Cr–5Fe–85V) emerged as the top alloy, validated experimentally with a homogeneous single-phase BCC microstructure and superior mechanical properties (nano-indentation: 3.389 ± 0.258 GPa; Vickers hardness: 240 ± 6.7 HV), significantly outperforming Zircaloy-4 and V-4Cr-4Ti. Importantly, the RAD strategy is not limited to nuclear applications; its customizable weighting system enables scalability to other extreme environments. This adaptability positions RAD strategy as a versatile tool for advanced materials design across multiple industries.

Alloy design

Bismuth-oxo Clusters for Next Generation Extreme Ultraviolet Light Photolithography

Photolithography is the primary technique used for the patterning of semiconducting materials for chip manufacturing; however, as requisite pattern dimensions and feature sizes continue to decrease, state-of-the-art lithographic methods now require the use of 13.5 nm extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light. The shift toward these higher energy wavelengths of light has resulted in a need for new single component materials, with high EUV absorption cross sections and high etch resistance. Herein, we report the exploration of Bi 9 O 7 (hfac) 13 as the first bismuth oxo cluster based EUV photoresist. It was determined this material has an exceptional EUV linear absorption coefficient (24 μm –1 ), nearly an order of magnitude larger than commercially available chemically amplified resists (CARs) (∼5 μm –1 ). Additionally, the resist was determined to be highly sensitive to EUV exposure and displayed a dose-to-gel of 10 mJ/cm 2 , undergoing ligand decomposition during exposure and cross-linking during the postexposure bake, which was supported by FTIR and residual gas analysis. In conclusion, this class of bismuth-oxo cluster resists can lead to the development of more efficient, effective and safe EUV resist materials required for next-generation photolithography.

MacKenzie, Harvey K. [Univ. of Victoria, BC (Canad

Bridging Atomic Solvation Environment with Electrochemical Properties for the Bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide-Based Divalent Cation Electrolytes for the Next-Generation Energy Storage Systems

A deep molecular-level understanding of the multivalent electrolyte and its correlation with the electrochemical properties is crucial for designing optimized electrolytes for next-generation rechargeable batteries. Comprehensive knowledge of the atomic level of the solvation structure and its connection with electrochemical stability and ion transport properties is especially critical. However, the interaction of these three components coupled with clear atomistic insights is lacking in the literature. Here, our current contribution evaluates representative electrolytes with the bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (TFSI) anions for multivalent cations of Mg, Ca, and Zn, at different ionic conditions with and without a cosolvated environment in ether-based solvent. Two critical problems are investigated: first, resolving the solvation structures in the electrolyte solutions as a function of concentrations through pair distribution function analysis and the corresponding electrochemical transport properties; second, unmasking the quantitative correlation of the atomistic environment with both electrochemical kinetics and cation dependence. We discovered that the magnesium- and calcium-based electrolytes display versatile coordination lengths but poor average anodic stability due to ion pairing with TFSI - . On the contrary, the zinc-based electrolytes show the shortest solvent coordination lengths, shielding the Zn cation from rigid solvent interactions and resulting in the highest anodic stabilities. Calcium-based electrolytes exhibit the longest and most concentration-independent coordination lengths. This work provides valuable insights into the molecular structural and electrochemical features of diverse multivalent electrolyte systems with cations in various solvation environments, emphasizing the importance of the solvation structure and construction in designing high-performance electrolytes.

cation coordination

Predictive Chemical Kinetic Modeling: Where We Succeed, Where We Struggle, and What Comes Next

Chemical kinetic modeling plays a foundational role in fields ranging from energy to environmental science, pharmaceuticals, and advanced materials. The past two decades have seen remarkable progress, particularly in modeling gas-phase reactions for thermochemical processes, leading to impactful industrial applications such as steam cracking and air quality management. However, new challenges are emerging. The successful development of systematic methodologies for the description of gas-phase kinetics opens the possibility to apply the same approach to the study of more challenging systems. Here, we review recent advances, including ab initio transition state theory-based master equation estimation of elementary rates, automated mechanism generation, machine-learning-assisted kinetics, and uncertainty quantification, and discuss the advances needed to apply the same methodological approach in areas such as heterogeneous catalysis, electrochemistry, liquid-phase and solid-state reactivity, and multiscale model integration. We advocate for the development of targeted tools, especially methods that go beyond empirical tuning toward first-principles-based predictions. We highlight the need for accessible software and AIaugmented workflows to democratize modeling for industry and academia alike. In this perspective, we call attention to not only what has worked but also what remains unsolved, advocating to avoid overemphasizing successes in scientific works at the expense of realism. The next decade should focus on predictive capability, physical accuracy, and community infrastructure (e.g., databases and services) to enable innovation across diverse fields. We argue that kinetic modeling, properly equipped, can accelerate discovery far beyond its traditional domains.

ab initio calculations