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DOE OSTI2026

Integrating three plan evaluation approaches for coordinated heat resilience in cities across the Arizona urban corridor

Increasing heat poses a growing threat to cities worldwide due to both climate change and the urban heat island effect. While heat planning and governance are still emergent, research suggests that silos and conflicts within cities' networks of plans often impede heat resilience. Integrated heat resilience planning, therefore, requires a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the silos and conflicts relevant to heat resilience within networks of plans. This study is the first to combine three complementary plan evaluation methods to assess how cities' networks of plans address heat resilience. We applied 1) plan cross-referencing, 2) Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, and 3) Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat to 19 plans from seven Arizona cities. We find similarities and differences in how these cities' networks of plans address heat hazards. The plans have consistently high-quality participation and coordination principles but lack details on vulnerability and climate change uncertainty, suggesting a need to move beyond immediate heat risks. We also identify opportunities to diversify policy mechanisms, spatially target high heat risk areas, and enhance the connection between planning efforts. These results validate that plan elements are interlinked and the importance of integrative plan development processes to improve heat resilience.

Extreme heat↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop (PHIL) Evaluation of Service Restoration With Networked Microgrids

This paper describes the power-hardware-in-the- loop (PHIL) evaluation of the feasibility of service restoration solutions determined by the PowerModelsONM.jl tool. This tool incorporates microgrids and the networking of microgrids into its determination of an optimal service restoration solution. The paper presents PHIL simulation results for a case study based on a real distribution feeder with multiple microgrids, showcas- ing the effectiveness of networked microgrids in aiding system restoration after an outage. The study leverages high-fidelity, real- time electromagnetic transient models to ensure accuracy in the simulation results. This work is the final output from the Resilient Operation of Networked Microgrids (RONM) project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity Microgrid Program and led by Los Alamos National Laboratory. RONM focused on the application of PowerModelsONM.jl to enhance the resilience of distribution systems.

fault location isolation and service restoration (↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Deep Learning Approach for In-Network Synchrophasor Missing Data Recovery Using Programmable Network Switches

Phasor measurement unit (PMU) networks deliver accurate and timely measurements, which is essential for managing today’s electric power systems. To ensure data quality and enhance the cyber-resilience of PMU networks against malicious attacks and data errors, this study presents an online PMU missing data recovery scheme by leveraging P4 programmable switches. The data plane incorporates a customized PMU protocol parser that abstracts the necessary payload data for recovery. Recovery processes are executed in the control plane using a pre-trained machine learning model. Both traditional and advanced ML models, such as transformer and TimeGPT, are explicitly employed for data prediction. This approach ensures rapid and precise data recovery. Performance evaluations focus on recovery speed and accuracy, using a real dataset from a campus microgrid. With 20% missing PMU data, the mean absolute percentage error for voltage magnitude is 0.0384%, and the phase angle error discrepancy is approximately 0.4064%.

Phasor Measurement Unit, Machine Learning, Program↗

DOE OSTI2024

Geospatial Capabilities to Couple Hazard and Social Vulnerability Data in Water Distribution Criticality Analysis

A resilience analysis of a water distribution system is greatly enhanced by the integration of up-to-date geospatial data describing the water system, hazards, and surrounding community. The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR), an open-source Python package designed to simulate and analyze the resilience of water distribution systems, was recently updated to incorporate geographic information system (GIS) data into the resilience analysis. This paper describes the GIS capabilities and includes a case study using the drinking water distribution system model for a large city in Pennsylvania. The case study focuses on potential pipe damage from landslides and on pipes that are particularly difficult to repair. The analysis couples data on hazards, social vulnerability, and the location of emergency services to identify and prioritize high-impact critical infrastructure for mitigation. Results demonstrate that pipes can be prioritized for mitigation based on water shortage and vulnerable populations that are affected. In conclusion, the methods can be adopted for general use and are available as part of the WNTR software.

GIS, landslide↗

DOE OSTI2025

Game Theory Approaches for System-level Incentive Design

This report presents a generalized Stackelberg game framework for designing and evaluating financial incentives that enhance power system resilience through strategic deployment of distributed energy resources(DERs) under various contingencies. The proposed approach addresses the challenge of coordinating individual community investment decisions to meet system-wide resilience objectives. The framework is demonstrated in a three-community test system subjected to two transmission contingency scenarios: inter-community line failure (Case 1) and complete main grid disconnection (Case 2). In both cases, three incentive levels are compared: a Base case with no financial incentives, and low and high incentive cases. In Case 1, the Base case (no incentives) results in a total installed DER capacity of 217.2 MW, with no load shedding due to alternative routing, but community costs remain high. Increasing incentives raises DER deployment to 286.9 MW, lowers aggregate community costs by $22M annually, and completely avoids the need for costly new transmission line construction. In Case 2, the Base case results in 24.3 MWh of unserved load; introducing incentives eliminates all load shedding and ensures up to 89 MWh of battery storage is available for emergency reserve. These results demonstrate that targeted incentives can dramatically improve grid resilience and cost-effectiveness. The framework thus offers policymakers and system planners a robust tool to quantify and compare the effectiveness of incentive programs for multi-community transmission networks behavior, system resilience, and economic efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Framework for Assessing Impact of Wave-Powered Desalination on Resilience of Coastal Communities

Coastal communities face unique challenges in maintaining continuous service from critical infrastructure. This research advances capabilities for evaluating the impact of using wave energy to desalinate water on the resilience of coastal communities. The study focuses on the feasibility of using wave energy conversion to provide drinking water to communities in need and applying resilience metrics to quantify its impact on the community. To assess the feasibility of wave-powered desalination, this research couples the open-source software Wave Energy Converter SIMulator (WEC-Sim) and Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR). This research explores variations in both the wave resource (location, seasonality, and duration) and the ability to maintain drinking water service during a disruption scenario by applying the simulation framework to three case studies, which are based on communities in Puerto Rico. The simulation framework provides a contextualized assessment of the ability of wave-powered desalination to improve the resilience of coastal communities, which can serve as a methodology for future studies seeking the integration of wave-powered desalination with water distribution systems.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing and Promoting Functional Resilience in Flight Crews During Exploration Missions

The NASA Human Research Program works to mitigate risks to health and performance on extended missions. However, research should be directed not only to mitigating known risks, but also to providing crews with tools to assess and enhance resilience, as a group and individually. We can draw on ideas from complexity theory to assess resilience. The entire crew or the individual crewmember can be viewed as a complex system composed of subsystems; the interactions between subsystems are of crucial importance. Understanding the interactions can provide important information even in the absence of complete information on the component subsystems. Enabled by advances in noninvasive measurement of physiological and behavioral parameters, subsystem monitoring can be implemented within a mission and during training to establish baselines. Coupled with mathematical modeling, this can provide assessment of health and function. Since the web of physiological systems (and crewmembers) can be interpreted as a network in mathematical terms, we can draw on recent work that relates the structure of such networks to their resilience (ability to self-organize in the face of perturbation). Some of the many parameters and interactions to choose from include: sleep cycles, coordination of work and meal times, cardiorespiratory rhythms, circadian rhythms and body temperature, stress markers and cognition, sleep and performance, immune function and nutritional status. Tools for resilience are then the means to measure and analyze these parameters, incorporate them into models of normal variability and interconnectedness, and recognize when parameters or their couplings are outside of normal limits.

Shelhamer, M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Framework of Multisource Data Fusion for Outage Location in Looped Distribution Systems

Accurate outage location is essential for expediting post-outage power restoration, minimizing outage duration, and enhancing the resilience of distribution networks. With the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, data-driven outage location methods have significantly advanced beyond traditional approaches that rely on manual inspections. However, existing methods still face critical challenges, like reliance on single-source data, limited ability to handle partially observable systems or difficulties with loop networks. To the best of our knowledge, no single approach has comprehensively addressed all of these challenges at once. To this end, this paper proposes a comprehensive multisource data fusion framework for outage locations via probabilistic graph networks. The framework consists of three key phases. First, a novel method for reconstituting distribution networks with loops is developed, transforming looped networks into multiple radial subnetworks that retain all outage causalities of the original network. Second, Bayesian network (BN) models are established for each subnetwork, integrating multiple data sources and network structures. Finally, a joint Gibbs sampling mechanism, featuring forward and backward information flow, is designed to merge data from separate BN models and maximize the utilization of limited evidence, ensuring accurate outage location identification. In conclusion, the framework was validated on two modified public test systems, and comparative studies confirmed its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pavement condition and climatic data in southeast Texas: A dataset for evaluating flood impacts on pavement performance

Effective pavement maintenance is essential for economic stability, optimal network performance, and roadway safety. Achieving this requires thorough evaluation of pavement conditions, including structural integrity, surface roughness, and distress characteristics. Pavement performance indicators play a critical role in influencing vehicle safety and ride quality. Recent advances have emphasized the use of data-driven modeling to anticipate pavement behavior, with the goal of optimizing resource allocation and refining Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) strategies through accurate condition assessment. A foundational requirement for these modeling efforts is the availability of standardized, high-quality datasets that can support robust and reproducible infrastructure analysis. This data article presents a comprehensive dataset assembled to facilitate pavement performance prediction, with a geographic focus on Southeast Texas, particularly the flood-vulnerable area of Beaumont. The dataset encompasses pavement and traffic attributes, meteorological records, flood simulation outputs, ground deformation measurements, and topographic indices, enabling detailed examination of both load-associated and non-load-associated degradation mechanisms. Data preprocessing was performed using ArcGIS Pro, Microsoft Excel, and Python to ensure consistency and usability in data-driven modeling applications, including machine learning workflows. Key contributions of this dataset include its utility in analyzing the climatic and environmental factors affecting pavement conditions, identifying critical predictive features, and enabling in-depth correlation analysis across diverse variables. By filling existing gaps in input variable selection resources, this dataset supports the development of predictive tools for estimating future maintenance demand and enhancing the resilience of pavement networks in flood-impacted areas. The resource highlights the importance of standardized datasets for advancing pavement management practices and provides a robust foundation for ongoing infrastructure performance modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Cognitive Communications and AI/ML Applications

This presentation provides an overview of the Cognitive Communications project and several key technology areas that are being developed. Artificial intelligence applications for networking, adaptive and resilient links, RF interference mitigation, and system-level optimization and cognition are discussed.

Rachel Dudukovich↗

DOE OSTI2024

Networked Microgrid Ownership, Data, and Control Implications: Challenges and Open Questions

Microgrid deployments increasingly favor the potential to form networks for greater benefits to resilience, reliability, and energy sovereignty. Both independent and networked micro-grids predominantly have a single-entity-ownership and control, where the associations from ownership to data requirements to control functions to microgrid objectives is linear. The emerging model, however, is cyclical, with bidirectional causal impacts between each of the 4 pillars: there are more complex mixed ownership models across the physical, electrical, data, communications, protection, and control boundaries that impact the data requirements for meeting control functions that help realize the use-cases or objectives. This paper is the first to delineate the pillars for effective ownership and controllability of both independent as well as networked microgrids through the cyclical model, and present barriers to the adoption of such a model.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demystifying the Resilience of Large Language Models: An End-to-End Perspective

Deep neural networks are known to be resilient to random bit-wise faults in their parameters. However, this resilience has primarily been established through evaluations of classification models. The extent to which this claim holds for large-language models remains underexplored. In this work, we conduct an extensive measurement study on the impact of random bitwise faults in commercial-scale language models. We perform an in-depth analysis of the resulting generation outputs. We first expose that these language models are not truly resilient to random bit-flips. While aggregate metrics such as accuracy may suggest resilience, an in-depth inspection of the generated outputs shows significant degradation in text quality. Our analysis also shows that tasks requiring more complex reasoning suffer more from performance and quality degradation. Moreover, we extend our analysis to models with augmented reasoning capabilities, such as Chain-of-Thought or Mixture of Experts architectures, and characterize their failure scenarios under random bit-flips.

Sun, Yu↗

NASA NTRS2011

Contact Graph Routing

Contact Graph Routing (CGR) is a dynamic routing system that computes routes through a time-varying topology of scheduled communication contacts in a network based on the DTN (Delay-Tolerant Networking) architecture. It is designed to enable dynamic selection of data transmission routes in a space network based on DTN. This dynamic responsiveness in route computation should be significantly more effective and less expensive than static routing, increasing total data return while at the same time reducing mission operations cost and risk. The basic strategy of CGR is to take advantage of the fact that, since flight mission communication operations are planned in detail, the communication routes between any pair of bundle agents in a population of nodes that have all been informed of one another's plans can be inferred from those plans rather than discovered via dialogue (which is impractical over long one-way-light-time space links). Messages that convey this planning information are used to construct contact graphs (time-varying models of network connectivity) from which CGR automatically computes efficient routes for bundles. Automatic route selection increases the flexibility and resilience of the space network, simplifying cross-support and reducing mission management costs. Note that there are no routing tables in Contact Graph Routing. The best route for a bundle destined for a given node may routinely be different from the best route for a different bundle destined for the same node, depending on bundle priority, bundle expiration time, and changes in the current lengths of transmission queues for neighboring nodes; routes must be computed individually for each bundle, from the Bundle Protocol agent's current network connectivity model for the bundle s destination node (the contact graph). Clearly this places a premium on optimizing the implementation of the route computation algorithm. The scalability of CGR to very large networks remains a research topic. The information carried by CGR contact plan messages is useful not only for dynamic route computation, but also for the implementation of rate control, congestion forecasting, transmission episode initiation and termination, timeout interval computation, and retransmission timer suspension and resumption.

Burleigh, Scott C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing and Promoting Functional Resilience in Flight Crews During Exploration Missions

NASA plans to send humans to Mars in about 20 years. The NASA Human Research Program supports research to mitigate the major risks to human health and performance on extended missions. However, there will undoubtedly be unforeseen events on any mission of this nature - thus mitigation of known risks alone is not sufficient to ensure optimal crew health and performance. Research should be directed not only to mitigating known risks, but also to providing crews with the tools to assess and enhance resilience, as a group and individually. We can draw on ideas from complexity theory and network theory to assess crew and individual resilience. The entire crew or the individual crewmember can be viewed as a complex system that is composed of subsystems (individual crewmembers or physiological subsystems), and the interactions between subsystems are of crucial importance for overall health and performance. An understanding of the structure of the interactions can provide important information even in the absence of complete information on the component subsystems. This is critical in human spaceflight, since insufficient flight opportunities exist to elucidate the details of each subsystem. Enabled by recent advances in noninvasive measurement of physiological and behavioral parameters, subsystem monitoring can be implemented within a mission and also during preflight training to establish baseline values and ranges. Coupled with appropriate mathematical modeling, this can provide real-time assessment of health and function, and detect early indications of imminent breakdown. Since the interconnected web of physiological systems (and crewmembers) can be interpreted as a network in mathematical terms, we can draw on recent work that relates the structure of such networks to their resilience (ability to self-organize in the face of perturbation). There are many parameters and interactions to choose from. Normal variability is an established characteristic of a healthy physiological response. Healthy coupling has been investigated less extensively, but there are cases in which too tight or too loose coupling can be problematic. This might be in inter-individual behaviors, such as sleep cycles, coordination of work and meal times, and coupled motions during communication. Less apparent are couplings of physiological systems, nevertheless examples abound of coupled systems which might be monitored: cardio-respiratory rhythms; circadian rhythms, body temperature, and sleep; stress markers and cognition, sleep, and performance; profiles of biochemical markers related to immune function and nutritional status; sensorimotor aspects such as motion sickness, ataxia, reaction time, and manual control. Tools for resilience are then the means to measure and analyze these parameters, incorporate them into appropriate models of normal variability and interconnectedness, and recognize when parameters or their couplings are outside of normal limits. What to do when a problem is identified depends on its nature. Changes can be made to crew procedures, work pacing, interpersonal interactions, sleep cycles, meal timing and content, as guided by the model. Use and continued development of these methods could not only provide tools for resilience, but also meaningful autonomous work for the crew on an extended flight.

Shelhamer, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Network Reconfiguration and Scheduling With Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation for Improved Microgrid Resilience

With the increased occurrence of various major extreme weather events, power outages and prompt power system restorations have recently drawn more attention to the resilience and recovery of power systems. From the perspective of a more resilient power delivery at the distribution grid, system restoration using network topology reconfiguration together with optimal scheduling of distributed energy resources are adopted in this paper. The proposed optimization model aims at minimizing the total load shedding cost and other operational costs, in which linearized topological constraints borrowed from graph theory and linearized DistFlow models are respectively used to maintain the radial network topology and power flow balance after system contingencies. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed strategy, a real-world case study of a networked three-microgrid system in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico, is used with the consideration of different independent/interconnected microgrid scenarios, contingencies, and fairness settings. Furthermore, hardware-in-the-loop testing is conducted for the same three-microgrid network, where the closely matched results with the simulated ones have validated the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy, which is now ready to move one step forward towards field deployment. Finally, to test the proposed restoration strategy in a larger networked system, the modified IEEE-33 bus test distribution system is considered, and the results show a more resilient power delivery for critical loads under three and four line outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Measurement Framework For Post-deployment Artificial Intelligence (ai) Integrated Systems

Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.

Yockey, Patience [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗

DOE OSTI2024

Plan evaluation for heat resilience: complementary methods to comprehensively assess heat planning in Tempe and Tucson, Arizona

Abstract Escalating impacts from climate change and urban heat are increasing the urgency for communities to equitably plan for heat resilience. Cities in the desert Southwest are among the hottest and fastest warming in the U.S., placing them on the front lines of heat planning. Urban heat resilience requires an integrated planning approach that coordinates strategies across the network of plans that shape the built environment and risk patterns. To date, few studies have assessed cities’ progress on heat planning. This research is the first to combine two emerging plan evaluation approaches to examine how networks of plans shape urban heat resilience through case studies of Tempe and Tucson, Arizona. The first methodology, Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, adapts existing plan quality assessment approaches to heat. We assess whether plans meet 56 criteria across seven principles of high-quality planning and the types of heat strategies included in the plans. The second methodology, the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat, focuses on plan policies that could influence urban heat hazards. We categorize policies by policy tool and heat mitigation strategy and score them based on their heat impact. Scored policies are then mapped to evaluate their spatial distribution and the net effect of the plan network. The resulting PIRS™ for Heat scorecard is compared with heat vulnerability indicators to assess policy alignment with risks. We find that both cities are proactively planning for heat resilience using similar plan and strategy types, however, there are clear and consistent opportunities for improvement. Combining these complementary plan evaluation methods provides a more comprehensive understanding of how plans address heat and a generalizable approach that communities everywhere could use to identify opportunities for improved heat resilience planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Analysis of Inter-Area Oscillations in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection: A 2017-2023 Perspective

Recent advancements and the accumulation of high-resolution, long-term phasor measurement unit (PMU) data have provided detailed insights into inter-area oscillations in power grids. This study conducts a comprehensive statistical analysis of inter-area oscillations within the United States Eastern Interconnection from 2017 to 2023. Utilizing data captured by the advanced wide-area Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye), this investigation examines the occurrence patterns, dominant frequencies, damping ratios, and excitation mechanisms of these oscillations. Our analysis sheds light on the evolving statistical behaviors of inter-area oscillations, offering updated and critical information for grid operators and planners. The insights gained from this study can be instrumental in enhancing the operational resilience of the power network and guiding strategic developments in grid infrastructure to accommodate future challenges. Additionally, the study discusses emerging challenges associated with the modernization of the power grid, including increased renewable penetration, dynamic load variability, and cyber-physical vulnerabilities that complicate oscillation monitoring and control.

Inter-area oscillations↗