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At least 55 records · Page 3

Management by Trajectory: Improving Predictability for Airspace Operations

In the present-day National Airspace System, the air traffic management system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, gaps in trajectory data and models, coupled with tactical control actions that are not communicated to automation systems or other stakeholders, lead to trajectory predictions that are less accurate than they could be. This affects traffic flow management performance. Management by Trajectory (MBT) is a NASA concept for air traffic management in which every flight operates in accordance with a 4D trajectory that is negotiated between the airspace user and the FAA to account for the airspace user’s goals while complying with NAS constraints. The primary benefit of MBT is an improvement in system performance due to increased trajectory predictability and stability, which result from managing traffic in all four dimensions (2D route, vertical, and time), ensuring that changes to the flight’s trajectory are incorporated into the assigned trajectory, and utilizing improved time or arrival control standards. Importantly, the performance improvements support increasing efficiency without increasing collision risk. This paper provides an overview of MBT and describes fast-time simulation results evaluating the safety, performance, and efficiency effects of MBT.

Fernandes, Alicia B.↗

How to handle 6GBytes a night and not get swamped

The Macho Project has undertaken a 5 year effort to search for dark matter in the halo of the Galaxy by scanning the Magellanic Clouds for micro-lensing events. Each evening's raw image data will be reduced in real-time into the observed stars' photometric measurements. The actual search for micro-lensing events will be a post-processing operation. The theoretical prediction of the rate of such events necessitates the collection of a large number of repeated exposures. The project designed camera subsystem delivers 64 Mbytes per exposure with exposures typically occurring every 500 seconds. An ideal evening's observing will provide 6 Gbytes of raw image data and 40 Mbytes of reduced photometric measurements. Recognizing the difficulty of digging out from a snowballing cascade of raw data, the project requires the real-time reduction of each evening's data. The software team's implementation strategy centered on this non-negotiable mandate. Accepting the reality that 2 full time people needed to implement the core real-time control and data management system within 6 months, off-the-shelf vendor components were explored to provide quick solutions to the classic needs for file management, data management, and process control. Where vendor solutions were lacking, state-of-the-art models were used for hand tailored subsystems. In particular, petri nets manage process control, memory mapped bulletin boards provide interprocess communication between the multi-tasked processes, and C++ class libraries provide memory mapped, disk resident databases. The differences between the implementation strategy and the final implementation reality are presented. The necessity of validating vendor product claims are explored. Both the successful and hindsight decisions enabling the collection and processing of the nightly data barrage are reviewed.

Allsman, R.↗

Standards for space data systems

NASA has chaired the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) for the past four years. During that time, a top-level, end-to-end reference model for space data sytems has been developed that identifies the functions anad services which must be provided by space data systems, and defines the interfaces between major functional elements. A group of definitions for standard protocols has been derived by analyzing these interfaces, and a set of detailed guidelines for space data system standards is in the final stages of negotiation among member CCSDS agencies. Two guidelines that address packet telemetry and channel coding have been approved and are being incorporated into the internal standards of member agencies. Others (packet telecommand, time code, standards data format unit) are in review within CCSDS technical panels and will soon be submitted for approval. These guidelines provide a mechanism for significant cost savings in the implementation of space data systems by allowing reuse of hardware and software for different payloads and for missions, and by enabling the substitution of new technology/higher performance elements at key points in the data system without causing major perturbations in the remainder of the system.

Connell, E. B.↗

Automating Mid- and Long-Range Scheduling for the NASA Deep Space Network

NASA has recently deployed a new mid-range scheduling system for the antennas of the Deep Space Network (DSN), called Service Scheduling Software, or S(sup 3). This system was designed and deployed as a modern web application containing a central scheduling database integrated with a collaborative environment, exploiting the same technologies as social web applications but applied to a space operations context. This is highly relevant to the DSN domain since the network schedule of operations is developed in a peer-to-peer negotiation process among all users of the DSN. These users represent not only NASA's deep space missions, but also international partners and ground-based science and calibration users. The initial implementation of S(sup 3) is complete and the system has been operational since July 2011. This paper describes some key aspects of the S(sup 3) system and on the challenges of modeling complex scheduling requirements and the ongoing extension of S(sup 3) to encompass long-range planning, downtime analysis, and forecasting, as the next step in developing a single integrated DSN scheduling tool suite to cover all time ranges.

Deep Space Network↗

A Quantum Annealing Computer Team Addresses Climate Change Predictability

The near confluence of the successful launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 on July 2, 2014 and the acceptance on August 20, 2015 by Google, NASA Ames Research Center and USRA of a 1152 qubit D-Wave 2X Quantum Annealing Computer (QAC), offered an exceptional opportunity to explore the potential of this technology to address the scientific prediction of global annual carbon uptake by land surface processes. At UMBC,we have collected and processed 20 months of global Level 2 light CO2 data as well as fluorescence data. In addition we have collected ARM data at 2sites in the US and Ameriflux data at more than 20 stations. J. Dorband has developed and implemented a multi-hidden layer Boltzmann Machine (BM) algorithm on the QAC. Employing the BM, we are calculating CO2 fluxes by training collocated OCO-2 level 2 CO2 data with ARM ground station tower data to infer to infer measured CO2 flux data. We generate CO2 fluxes with a regression analysis using these BM derived weights on the level 2 CO2 data for three Ameriflux sites distinct from the ARM stations. P. Gentine has negotiated for the access of K34 Ameriflux data in the Amazon and is applying a neural net to infer the CO2 fluxes. N. Talik validated the accuracy of the BM performance on the QAC against a restricted BM implementation on the IBM Softlayer Cloud with the Nvidia co-processors utilizing the same data sets. G. Nearing and K. Harrison have extended the GSFC LIS model with the NCAR Noah photosynthetic parameterization and have run a 10 year global prediction of the net ecosystem exchange. C. Pellisier is preparing a BM implementation of the Kalman filter data assimilation of CO2 fluxes. At UMBC, R. Prouty is conducting OSSE experiments with the LISNoah model on the IBM iDataPlex to simulate the impact of CO2 fluxes to improve the prediction of global annual carbon uptake. J. LeMoigne and D. Simpson have developed a neural net image registration system that will be used for MODIS ENVI and will be converted to a BM algorithm implementation on the QAC. The first integer adder has been implemented on the D-Wave 2X by A. Shehab that will perform HAAR wavelets for image compression of MODIS scenes. Finally, based on the next generations of QACs, we are preparing a 5-year performance road map on the scalability of the current QAC algorithms.

Science Data Processing↗

Specialized data analysis for the Space Shuttle Main Engine and diagnostic evaluation of advanced propulsion system components

The Marshall Space Flight Center is responsible for the development and management of advanced launch vehicle propulsion systems, including the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), which is presently operational, and the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) under development. The SSME's provide high performance within stringent constraints on size, weight, and reliability. Based on operational experience, continuous design improvement is in progress to enhance system durability and reliability. Specialized data analysis and interpretation is required in support of SSME and advanced propulsion system diagnostic evaluations. Comprehensive evaluation of the dynamic measurements obtained from test and flight operations is necessary to provide timely assessment of the vibrational characteristics indicating the operational status of turbomachinery and other critical engine components. Efficient performance of this effort is critical due to the significant impact of dynamic evaluation results on ground test and launch schedules, and requires direct familiarity with SSME and derivative systems, test data acquisition, and diagnostic software. Detailed analysis and evaluation of dynamic measurements obtained during SSME and advanced system ground test and flight operations was performed including analytical/statistical assessment of component dynamic behavior, and the development and implementation of analytical/statistical models to efficiently define nominal component dynamic characteristics, detect anomalous behavior, and assess machinery operational condition. In addition, the SSME and J-2 data will be applied to develop vibroacoustic environments for advanced propulsion system components, as required. This study will provide timely assessment of engine component operational status, identify probable causes of malfunction, and indicate feasible engineering solutions. This contract will be performed through accomplishment of negotiated task orders.

Source record↗

Control strategies for planetary rover motion and manipulator control

An unusual insect-like vehicle designed for planetary surface exploration is made the occasion for a discussion of control concepts in path selection, hazard detection, obstacle negotiation, and soil sampling. A control scheme which actively articulates the pitching motion between a single-loop front module and a dual loop rear module leads to near optimal behavior in soft soil; at the same time the vehicle's front module acts as a reliable tactile forward probe with a detection range much longer than the stopping distance. Some optimal control strategies are discussed, and the photos of a working scale model are displayed.

Trautwein, W.↗

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Conflicts in the Middle East

We analyzed the latest climate model projections (CMIP6) of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5, to detect potential future changes in the Middle East. A baseline period (1981-2010) was compared with the middle (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21st century. The Tigris-Euphrates headwaters was identified as the hotspot of future compound effects of climate change in the region. In particular, the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) region is likely to see the most dramatic compound changes of any area in the Middle East. That assessment was based on the model projections that showed rapid warming, increased interannual precipitation variability, and decreased precipitation all coinciding in an area of massive irrigation development and known transboundary water tension. It is likely that GAP would exacerbate environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region, therefore its adverse impacts might outnumber its benefits in coming decades. This study attempts to warn decision-makers of the urgent need to integrate these trends to water resource planning and international negotiations.

Middle East↗

Design Optimization of Stiffened Panels with Postbuckling Constraints

The funding provided by the grant is used to complete the final stages of the development of a geometrically nonlinear analysis and design capability for the static response of compressively loaded prismatic plate structures. The analysis is based on the nonlinear finite strip method and is applicable for structures, such as stiffened panels or box columns, that can be modeled as assemblages of finite length plate strips. In an effort to reduce the computational cost of the nonlinear finite strip method, thus making it suitable for use in the design optimization environment, reduced basis techniques as described in various references by Noor are used in conjunction with the finite strip method. In addition, an efficient scheme for tracing the nonlinear equilibrium paths through highly nonlinear response curves was implemented. The new scheme, which is referred to as the normal flow algorithm, is based on homotopy methods, and is capable of negotiating highly nonlinear limit point instabilities with a reduced computational cost compared to the popular Ricks/Wempner and Chrisfield algorithms.

Guerdal, Zafer↗

Terrain Portrayal for Head-Down Displays Experiment

The General Aviation Element of the Aviation Safety Program's Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) Project is developing technology to eliminate low visibility induced General Aviation (GA) accidents. SVS displays present computer generated 3-dimensional imagery of the surrounding terrain on the Primary Flight Display (PFD) to greatly enhance pilot's situation awareness (SA), reducing or eliminating Controlled Flight into Terrain, as well as Low-Visibility Loss of Control accidents. SVS-conducted research is facilitating development of display concepts that provide the pilot with an unobstructed view of the outside terrain, regardless of weather conditions and time of day. A critical component of SVS displays is the appropriate presentation of terrain to the pilot. An experimental study has been conducted at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to explore and quantify the relationship between the realism of the terrain presentation and resulting enhancements of pilot SA and pilot performance. Composed of complementary simulation and flight test efforts, Terrain Portrayal for Head-Down Displays (TP-HDD) experiments will help researchers evaluate critical terrain portrayal concepts. The experimental effort is to provide data to enable design trades that optimize SVS applications, as well as develop requirements and recommendations to facilitate the certification process. This paper focuses on the experimental set-up and preliminary qualitative results of the TP-HDD simulation experiment. In this experiment a fixed based flight simulator was equipped with various types of Head Down flight displays, ranging from conventional round dials (typical of most GA aircraft) to glass cockpit style PFD's. The variations of the PFD included an assortment of texturing and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution combinations. A test matrix of 10 terrain display configurations (in addition to the baseline displays) were evaluated by 27 pilots of various backgrounds and experience levels. Qualitative (questionnaires) and quantitative (pilot performance and physiological) data were collected during the experimental runs. Preliminary results indicate that all of the evaluation pilots favored SVS displays over standard gauges, in terms of terrain awareness, SA, and perceived pilot performance. Among the terrain portrayal concepts tested, most pilots preferred the higher-resolution DEM. In addition, with minimal training, low-hour VFR evaluation pilots were able to negotiate a precision approach using SVS displays with a tunnel in the sky guidance concept.

Hughes, Monica F.↗

Enabling Future Science and Human Exploration with NASA's Next Generation near Earth and Deep Space Communications and Navigation Architecture

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is studying alternatives for the United States space communications architecture through the 2040 timeframe. This architecture provides communication and navigation services to both human exploration and science missions throughout the solar system. Several of NASA's key space assets are approaching their end of design life and major systems are in need of replacement. The changes envisioned in the relay satellite architecture and capabilities around both Earth and Mars are significant undertakings and occur only once or twice each generation, and therefore is referred to as NASA's next generation space communications architecture. NASA's next generation architecture will benefit from technology and services developed over recent years. These innovations will provide missions with new operations concepts, increased performance, and new business and operating models. Advancements in optical communications will enable high-speed data channels and the use of new and more complex science instruments. Modern multiple beam/multiple access technologies such as those employed on commercial high throughput satellites will enable enhanced capabilities for on-demand service, and with new protocols will help provide Internet-like connectivity for cooperative spacecraft to improve data return and coordinate joint mission objectives. On-board processing with autonomous and cognitive networking will play larger roles to help manage system complexity. Spacecraft and ground systems will coordinate among themselves to establish communications, negotiate link connectivity, and learn to share spectrum to optimize resource allocation. Spacecraft will autonomously navigate, plan trajectories, and handle off-nominal events. NASA intends to leverage the ever-expanding capabilities of the satellite communications industry and foster its continued growth. NASA's technology development will complement and extend commercial capabilities to meet unique space environment requirements and to provide capabilities that are beyond the commercial marketplace. The progress of the communications industry, including the emerging global space internet segment and its planned constellations of 100's of satellites offer additional opportunities for new capability and mission concepts. The opportunities and challenges of a future space architecture require an optimal solution encompassing a global perspective. The concepts and technologies intentionally define an architecture that applies not only to NASA, but to other U.S. government agencies, international space and government agencies, and domestic and international industries to advance the openness, interoperability, and affordability of space communications. Cooperation among the worlds space agencies, their capabilities, standards, operations, and interoperability are key to advancing humankind's understand of the universe and extending human presence into the solar system.

Communications↗

Enabling Future Science and Human Exploration with NASA's Next Generation Near Earth and Deep Space Communications and Navigation Architecture

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is studying alternatives for the United States space communications architecture through the 2040 timeframe. This architecture provides communication and navigation services to both human exploration and science missions throughout the solar system. Several of NASA's key space assets are approaching their end of design life and major systems are in need of replacement. The changes envisioned in the relay satellite architecture and capabilities around both Earth and Mars are significant undertakings and occur only once or twice each generation, and therefore is referred to as NASA's next generation space communications architecture. NASA's next generation architecture will benefit from technology and services developed over recent years. These innovations will provide missions with new operations concepts, increased performance, and new business and operating models. Advancements in optical communications will enable high-speed data channels and the use of new and more complex science instruments. Modern multiple beam/multiple access technologies such as those employed on commercial high throughput satellites will enable enhanced capabilities for on-demand service, and with new protocols will help provide Internet-like connectivity for cooperative spacecraft to improve data return and coordinate joint mission objectives. On-board processing with autonomous and cognitive networking will play larger roles to help manage system complexity. Spacecraft and ground systems will coordinate among themselves to establish communications, negotiate link connectivity, and learn to share spectrum to optimize resource allocation. Spacecraft will autonomously navigate, plan trajectories, and handle off-nominal events. NASA intends to leverage the ever-expanding capabilities of the satellite communications industry and foster its continued growth. NASA's technology development will complement and extend commercial capabilities to meet unique space environment requirements and to provide capabilities that are beyond the commercial marketplace. The progress of the communications industry, including the emerging global space internet segment and its planned constellations of 100's of satellites offer additional opportunities for new capability and mission concepts. The opportunities and challenges of a future space architecture require an optimal solution encompassing a global perspective. The concepts and technologies intentionally define an architecture that applies not only to NASA, but to other U.S. government agencies, international space and government agencies, and domestic and international industries to advance the openness, interoperability, and affordability of space communications. Cooperation among the worlds space agencies, their capabilities, standards, operations, and interoperability are key to advancing humankinds understand of the universe and extending human presence into the solar system.

deep space↗

Adaptative Site Management for a 115 Acre Chlorinated Solvent Plume with Two Separate Source Areas at Kennedy Space Center, Florida

Background/Objectives. During Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI) activities, Geosyntec delineated a chlorinated volatile organic compound (CVOC) plume at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) area located at KSC, Florida. The RFI activities identified an approximate 115-acre dissolved plume (primarily vinyl chloride) and a trichloroethene (TCE) source area in an active aerospace complex that is surrounded by sensitive wetland/waterbodies. Due to the size of the impacted area, the Corrective Measure Design included a multi-component strategy: (i) address the source area via bioremediation; (ii) protect sensitive wetlands from impacted groundwater discharge via biosparging; and (iii) Long Term Monitoring (LTM) of the remaining dissolved plume. After the Corrective Measures implementation (CMI), NASA and Geosyntec worked with Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) to implement an adaptive site management for the complex, 115-acre site outside of the traditional RCRA process. The adaptive site management approach relied on performing supplemental assessments and implementing Interim Measures (IMs) to further assess and implement remedies over time while working within site and budget constraints, with an overall goal of achieving enough mass reduction to transition the entire site to LTM and eventually achieve site closure. Approach/Activities. After the biosparge barrier was operational and bioremediation within the source area (referred to as Hot Spot 1) achieved the Corrective Action Objective (CAO), supplemental assessment of the area between Hot Spot 1 and the biosparge barrier was performed. The conceptual site model was updated using the supplemental assessment results and an air sparge system IM was designed to treat an approximate 1.2 acre area (referred to as Hot Spot 2). After installation of the air sparge system, supplemental assessment within the remainder of the 115-acre dissolved plume was performed and a second TCE source area was identified. The TCE source area and associated areas with elevated CVOC concentrations (referred to as Hot Spot 3) were delineated and a bioremediation IM was implemented. Also, the downgradient impacts from Hot Spot 3 were adjacent to a sensitive waterbody, and negotiations with the FDEP allowed the area to be monitored using LTM. Results/Lessons Learned. The performance of supplemental assessment activities and implementation of remedial alternatives as IMs allowed NASA to successfully address groundwater impacts over time, while working within the FDEP regulatory framework. The implementation of the CMI and multiple IMs has achieved the following goals: (i) the biosparge barrier has mitigated the potential discharge of impacted groundwater to an adjacent wetland; (ii) enhanced bioremediation within Hot Spot 1 achieved the CAO within 2 years and transitioned the area into LTM; (iii) operation of an air sparge system within Hot Spot 2 removed TCE as a constituent of concern and contributed to a reduction (approximately 43%) in the impacted groundwater area outside the air sparge treatment area (plume collapse); and (iv) bioremediation within Hot Spot 3 removed approximately 80% of the CVOC mass and contributed to a reduction (approximately 47%) in the impacted groundwater area outside the bioremediation IM treatment area. Overall, the adaptive approach is protecting the sensitive water bodies surrounding the complex site and reducing the area of impacted groundwater, which is moving the entire site towards LTM.

Rebecca C Daprato↗

Efficient Web Services Policy Combination

Large-scale Web security systems usually involve cooperation between domains with non-identical policies. The network management and Web communication software used by the different organizations presents a stumbling block. Many of the tools used by the various divisions do not have the ability to communicate network management data with each other. At best, this means that manual human intervention into the communication protocols used at various network routers and endpoints is required. Developing practical, sound, and automated ways to compose policies to bridge these differences is a long-standing problem. One of the key subtleties is the need to deal with inconsistencies and defaults where one organization proposes a rule on a particular feature, and another has a different rule or expresses no rule. A general approach is to assign priorities to rules and observe the rules with the highest priorities when there are conflicts. The present methods have inherent inefficiency, which heavily restrict their practical applications. A new, efficient algorithm combines policies utilized for Web services. The method is based on an algorithm that allows an automatic and scalable composition of security policies between multiple organizations. It is based on defeasible policy composition, a promising approach for finding conflicts and resolving priorities between rules. In the general case, policy negotiation is an intractable problem. A promising method, suggested in the literature, is when policies are represented in defeasible logic, and composition is based on rules for non-monotonic inference. In this system, policy writers construct metapolicies describing both the policy that they wish to enforce and annotations describing their composition preferences. These annotations can indicate whether certain policy assertions are required by the policy writer or, if not, under what circumstances the policy writer is willing to compromise and allow other assertions to take precedence. Meta-policies are specified in defeasible logic, a computationally efficient non-monotonic logic developed to model human reasoning. One drawback of this method is that at one point the algorithm starts an exhaustive search of all subsets of the set of conclusions of a defeasible theory. Although the propositional defeasible logic has linear complexity, the set of conclusions here may be large, especially in real-life practical cases. This phenomenon leads to an inefficient exponential explosion of complexity. The current process of getting a Web security policy from combination of two meta-policies consists of two steps. The first is generating a new meta-policy that is a composition of the input meta-policies, and the second is mapping the meta-policy onto a security policy. The new algorithm avoids the exhaustive search in the current algorithm, and provides a security policy that matches all requirements of the involved metapolicies.

Vatan, Farrokh↗

Exploring the Effectiveness of Maneuvering Guidelines for Space Traffic Management

The number of objects in space has been increasing rapidly, and the risk of collision has grown as well. Many spacecraft operators are now receiving multiple collision warnings a day. Despite this, systems to manage space traffic have been limited: there are no broadly agreed upon guidelines or rules governing the response to predicted potential collisions. Instead, spacecraft operators generally determine whether, when, and how to respond to these warnings on a manual and ad hoc basis. Coordination between operators, if it occurs, often requires repeated communication and negotiation. Some space actors have suggested that the space community should develop right of way rules, similar to those in the ground, sea, and air domains, to guide collision response decisions. However, it is unclear whether such rules would be effective, and it’s unknown whether such rules would have an equitable impact across various spacecraft operators. To address these issues, we developed the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a software tool that was used to simulate the space environment with a recent catalog of objects obtained from the U.S. Space-Track.org system. We implemented multiple potential right of way rules within this model. The analysis confirmed that the choice of right of way rule makes a meaningful difference in terms of both efficiency and distributional effects in terms of collision avoidance maneuvers. For example, our analysis shows that rules in which the less massive satellite is required to maneuver results in a more equitable distribution of maneuver responsibility among space actors and also requires less fuel mass, compared to a rule in which the more massive satellite maneuvers.

space traffic management↗

Troika partnership model for licensing NASA-LaRC technologies

The Technology Applications (TAG) Group at NASA Langley Research Center has currently more than 100 technologies that are ripe for commercialization. These technologies are categorized by various sectors including: Energy and the Environment; Materials and Structures; Manufacturing; Information and Communications; Transportation, and Medical/Sensor/ Instrumentation. A requirement that TAG has placed on all technologies ready for licensing is that there will be some university involvement in the technology transfer or knowledge transfer process. This model involves the troika of government (LaRC), industry and university. A number of variations on the Troika Partnership Model (TPM) were developed as a part of this ASEE Fellowship. Furthermore, five technologies were identified - three of which industrial interests have been matched: LaRC-SI, a thermoplastic that can be used as a coating; Variable Geometry Truss Manipulator Arm that can be used for nuclear waste clean -up and as scaffolding; and ADAPT (Approach to Data Management, Archive Protection, and Transmission) is a technology that could be used for a variety of multi-tasking operations over the Internet. The aim of this work was to initiate a Space Act Agreement (SAA) for at least one of these technologies using one of the options of the TPM. A preliminary partnership agreement using the SAA is currently being negotiated with NASA-LaRC, VPI and Virginia Power for the LaRC-SI thermoplastic that will be used as a coating.

Maclin, Arlene P.↗

Using Machine-Learning to Dynamically Generate Operationally Acceptable Strategic Reroute Options

The newly developed Trajectory Option Set (TOS), a preference-weighted set of alternative routes submitted by flight operators, is a capability in the U.S. traffic flow management system that enables automated trajectory negotiation between flight operators and Air Navigation Service Providers. The objective of this paper is to describe and demonstrate an approach for automatically generating pre-departure and airborne TOSs that have a high probability of operational acceptance. The approach uses hierarchical clustering of historical route data to identify route candidates. The probability of operational acceptance is then estimated using predictors trained on historical flight plan amendment data using supervised machine learning algorithms, allowing the routes with highest probability of operational acceptance to be selected for the TOS. Features used describe historical route usage, difference in flight time and downstream demand to capacity imbalance. A random forest was found to be the best performing algorithm for learning operational acceptability, with a model accuracy of 0.96. The approach is demonstrated for an historical pre-departure flight from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to Newark Liberty International Airport.

Evans, Antony↗

Using Machine-Learning to Dynamically Generate Operationally Acceptable Strategic Reroute Options

The newly developed Trajectory Option Set (TOS), a preference-weighted set of alternative routes submitted by flight operators, is a capability in the U.S. traffic flow management system that enables automated trajectory negotiation between flight operators and Air Navigation Service Providers. The objective of this paper is to describe and demonstrate an approach for automatically generating pre-departure and airborne TOSs that have a high probability of operational acceptance. The approach uses hierarchical clustering of historical route data to identify route candidates. The probability of operational acceptance is then estimated using predictors trained on historical flight plan amendment data using supervised machine learning algorithms, allowing the routes with highest probability of operational acceptance to be selected for the TOS. Features used describe historical route usage, difference in flight time and downstream demand to capacity imbalance. A random forest was found to be the best performing algorithm for learning operational acceptability, with a model accuracy of 0.96. The approach is demonstrated for an historical pre-departure flight from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to Newark Liberty International Airport.

Evans, Antony↗