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Classification of Nuclear Reactor Operations Using Spatial Importance and Multisensor Networks

Distributed multisensor networks record multiple data streams that can be used as inputs to machine learning models designed to classify operations relevant to proliferation at nuclear reactors. The goal of this work is to demonstrate methods to assess the importance of each node (a single multisensor) and region (a group of proximate multisensors) to machine learning model performance in a reactor monitoring scenario. This, in turn, provides insight into model behavior, a critical requirement of data-driven applications in nuclear security. Using data collected at the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory via a network of Merlyn multisensors, two different models were trained to classify the reactor’s operational state: a hidden Markov model (HMM), which is simpler and more transparent, and a feed-forward neural network, which is less inherently interpretable. Traditional wrapper methods for feature importance were extended to identify nodes and regions in the multisensor network with strong positive and negative impacts on the classification problem. These spatial-importance algorithms were evaluated on the two different classifiers. The classification accuracy was then improved relative to baseline models via feature selection from 0.583 to 0.839 and from 0.811 ± 0.005 to 0.884 ± 0.004 for the HMM and feed-forward neural network, respectively. While some differences in node and region importance were observed when using different classifiers and wrapper methods, the nodes near the facility’s cooling tower were consistently identified as important—a conclusion further supported by studies on feature importance in decision trees. Node and region importance methods are model-agnostic, inform feature selection for improved model performance, and can provide insight into opaque classification models in the nuclear security domain.

Tibbetts, Jake↗

Calculations of Astrophysical Reaction Rates Using ENDF/B-VIII.0 Library

Recent observations of neutron stars merger (GW170817) renewed interest in stellar nucleosynthesis. Stellar nucleosynthesis modeling requires fully traceable, unbiased, high fidelity nuclear data. The Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF) libraries contain complete collections of reaction data sets over the nuclear industry standard 10 -5 eV - 20 MeV energy span. For the first time, the (n,γ), (n,fission), (n,p), and (n,α) astrophysical reaction rates were computed within the 0.01-10 GK range of temperatures using the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library, and nuclear Reaction rate Library for astrophysics (REACLIB) fit parameters were deduced. The present results were used to estimate the slow neutron capture timescale. These findings demonstrate the potential astrophysical applications of the ENDF libraries and the complementary relations between the nuclear industry and astrophysics data developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

From Layered Antiferromagnet to 3D Ferromagnet: LiMnBi-to-MnBi Magneto-Structural Transformation

Here, the intermetallic compound LiMnBi was synthesized by the two-step solid-state reaction from the elements. The synthesis temperature of 850 K was selected based on in-situ high-temperature powder X-ray diffraction data. LiMnBi crystalizes in the layered-like PbClF structure type (a = 4.3131(7) Å, c = 7.096(1) Å at 100 K, P4/nmm space group, Z = 2). LiMnBi structure is built of the alternating [MnBi] and Li layers, as determined from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data. Magnetic properties measurements and solid-state 7 Li Nuclear Magnetic Resonance data collected for polycrystalline LiMnBi samples indicate the long-range antiferromagnetic ordering of Mn sublattice at ~340 K, with no superconductivity down to 5 K detected. LiMnBi is air- and water-sensitive. In aerobic conditions, Li can be extracted from LiMnBi structure to form Li 2 O/LiOH and MnBi (NiAs structure type, P6 3 /mmc). The obtained MnBi polymorph was previously reported to be one of the strongest rare-earth-free ferromagnets, yet its bulk synthesis in powder form is cumbersome. The proposed magneto-structural transformation from ternary LiMnBi to ferromagnetic MnBi involves condensation of the MnBi4 tetrahedra upon Li deintercalation and is exclusive to LiMnBi. In contrast, ferromagnetic MnBi cannot be obtained from either isostructural NaMnBi and KMnBi, or from the structurally related CaMn 2 Bi 2 . Such a distinctive transformation in the case of LiMnBi is presumed to be due to its fitting reactivity to yield MnBi and favorable interlayer distance between [MnBi] layers, while the interlayer distance in NaMnBi and KMnBi structural analogs is unfavorably long. The studies of delithiation from the layered-like LiMnBi under different chemical environments indicate that the yield of the MnBi depends on the type of solvent used and the kinetics of the reaction. A slow rate and mild reaction media lead to a high fraction of the MnBi product. The saturation magnetization of the “as-prepared” MnBi is ~50 % of the expected value of 81.3 emu/g. Overall, this study adds a missing member to the family of ternary pnictides and illustrates how soft-chemistry methods can be used to obtain “difficult-to-synthesize” compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reevaluation of the 22 Ne(α,γ) 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reaction rates

The competing 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reactions control the production of neutrons for the weak s process in massive and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars. In both systems, the ratio between the corresponding reaction rates strongly impacts the total neutron budget and strongly influences the final nucleosynthesis. A number of experimental studies have been performed over recent years which necessitate the reevaluation of the 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α, γ) 25 Mg reactions control the production 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg reaction rates. Evaluations of the reaction rates following the collection of new nuclear data presently show differences of up to a factor of 500, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the resulting nucleosynthesis. To reevaluate the 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reaction rates using updated nuclear data from a number of sources including updating spin and parity assignments. With updated spin and parity assignments, the levels which can contribute to the reaction rates are identified. The reaction rates are computed using a Monte Carlo method which has been used for previous evaluations of the reaction rates in order to focus solely on the changes due to modified nuclear data. The evaluated 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg reaction rate remains substantially similar to that of Longland et al. but, including recent results from Texas A&M, the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg reaction rate is lower at a range of astrophysically important temperatures. Stellar models computed with newton and mesa predict decreased production of the weak branch s process due to the decreased efficiency of 22 Ne as a neutron source. Using the new reaction rates in the mesa model results in 96 Zr / 94 Zr and 135 Ba / 136 Ba ratios in much better agreement with the measured ratios from presolar SiC grains. The 22 Ne + α reaction rates 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg have been recalculated based on more recent nuclear data. The 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg reaction rate remains substantially unchanged since the previous evaluation but the 22 Ne(α, γ) 25 Mg reaction rate is substantially decreased due to updated nuclear data. This results in significant changes to the nucleosynthesis in the weak branch of the s process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Common Cause Failure Modeling in Space Launch Vehicles

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFs are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused for example by system environments, manufacturing, transportation, storage, maintenance, and assembly. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, they can be reduced, but are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and dependent CCF. Because common cause failure data is limited in the aerospace industry, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Team at Bastion Technology Inc. is estimating CCF risk using generic data collected by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Consequently, common cause risk estimates based on this database, when applied to other industry applications, are highly uncertain. Therefore, it is important to account for a range of values for independent and CCF risk and to communicate the uncertainty to decision makers. There is an existing methodology for reducing CCF risk during design, which includes a checklist of 40+ factors grouped into eight categories. Using this checklist, an approach to produce a beta factor estimate is being investigated that quantitatively relates these factors. In this example, the checklist will be tailored to space launch vehicles, a quantitative approach will be described, and an example of the method will be presented.

Hark, Frank↗

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Data Collection and Analysis Challenges and Mitigation Strategies for Quantitative Human Factors Research Studies in Nuclear Power Plant Modernization

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program Plant Modernization Pathway is conducting targeted research and development (R&D) to address aging and reliability concerns with the legacy instrumentation and control and related information systems of the U.S. LWR fleet. In this effort, the application of human factors engineering (HFE) provides an important role in ensuring new digital plant technologies enable broad innovation and business improvement with continued operational safety. Evaluation is a key activity in HFE, which often occurs iteratively through the system design lifecycle. While qualitative methods are important in collecting information of how users perform tasks through observations, quantitative methods are equally important in assessing system design based on performance. In collecting and analyzing this quantitative data, there are notable challenges in the nuclear HFE domain that may threaten the validity and reliability of the inferences made in these studies. Notable challenges include small sample size and limited resources, large error variance and small effect size, an “adding test features to losing degrees of freedom” dilemma, non-normal distribution, and heterogeneity of variance. The results in control room usability studies are often statistically non-significant, which makes it hard to interpret. This work discusses these challenges across different scientific viewpoints and provides real-world examples of these challenges in practice. Collectively, the objective of this work is to position these challenges to the larger data science community as a means of identifying future opportunities to address these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (4th Annual Report)

Nuclear plant sites collect and store large volumes of data collected from various equipment and systems. These datasets typically include plant process parameters, maintenance records, technical logs, online monitoring data, and equipment failure data. The collection of such data affords an opportunity to leverage data-driven machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies to provide diagnostic and prognostic capabilities within the nuclear power industry to reduce operating and maintenance costs. In this way, nuclear energy can become more economically competitive with other energy sources, and premature closures can be avoided. From a maintenance standpoint, savings can be achieved by leveraging machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies to develop data-driven algorithms to better diagnose and predict potential faults within the system. Improved model accuracy can lead to reductions in unnecessary maintenance and more efficient planning of future maintenance, thus lowering the costs associated with parts, labor, and unnecessary planned, forced, or extended outages. From an operations perspective, cost savings can be generated by shifting from route-based monitoring to wireless technologies for online monitoring, and by transitioning from onsite- to cloud-based computing and storage services. Wireless monitoring would reduce the operator manhours required for taking routine measurements, while cloud computing services would generate cost savings by reducing the amount of hardware needing to be purchased and maintained—all while scaling to both computational and storage demands. This report summarizes this project’s effort to shift from costly, labor-intensive preventative maintenance to cheaper predictive maintenance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Strategy to safely enable X-ray computed tomography examination of highly radioactive tristructural isotropic nuclear fuel

Nondestructive post-irradiation examination of nuclear fuels and materials is useful in collecting data to inform commercial licensing of new nuclear concepts. This work details the planning, shielding design, and workflow of an X-ray computed tomography examination of an irradiated AGR-5/6/7 fuel compact with a dose rate of 1318 R/hr on contact from both β and ɤ-ray radiation with 120 R/hr of the dose rate coming exclusively from ɤ-rays. Post-irradiation examination of highly radioactive samples can help reduce the timeframe from conceptualization of novel nuclear concepts to their commercial implementation as not only is less time spent waiting for experiments to decay away to acceptable levels for examinations, but data from these experiments can more quickly inform model efforts and subsequent experiments. While this work represents the hottest radiological sample that has been openly transported and examined at Idaho National Laboratory’s Irradiated Materials Characterization Laboratory to date, it is anticipated that this work and its lessons learned will facilitate future examinations of similar or even more radioactive specimens.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

ANDES (ARGONNE NUCLEAR DATA EXPLORATION SOFTWARE) - ndviz

The Argonne Nuclear Data Exploration Software (ANDES) is a collection of open-source C++ codes and ROOT scripts that enable the visualization of patterns emerging from nuclear data. From this global view, well-known phenomena such as major nuclear shell closures and pairing effects near N=Z nuclei, as well as more subtle features, such as quantum phase transition around the Zr isotopes or the charge radius staggering in the Hg isotopes, can be observed. This visualization tool apart from having pedagogic application can serve as a tool for discovering previously unknown phenomena in the nuclear chart.

Santiago-Gonzalez, Daniel↗

Release of ENDF/B-VIII.1β1-Based ACE Data Files

On March 1 st , 2023, the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC) released the ENDF/B-VIII.1β1 nuclear data library, which contained neutron, spontaneous and neutron-induced fission yield, and alpha sublibraries. The library was released in the standard Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF) format. The files can be accessed on Brookhaven National Laboratory’s GitLab. The thermal scattering law (TSL) sublibrary will be released at a later date. The files provided in the neutron sublibrary were processed into A Compact ENDF (ACE)-formatted files, verified, and validated by the XCP-5 Nuclear Data Team. The resulting collection of ACE files will be referred to as the “e81b1” library. This report details the processing of these files and the quality assurance approach taken. This is not intended to be a full validation effort; rather, this library is intended to simply reproduce the released files for further validation testing by the community. The e81b1 ACE library will be released to the NNDC for access through GitLab and hosted locally on LANL computing resources. This library is only intended for analysis to support the future ENDF/B-VIII.1 release and should not be used for production results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report – 2114 Billet A20568

This ECAR provides the results of a validity evaluation of the physical and mechanical property data collected on a billet of nuclear-grade graphite (i.e., 2114 Billet A20568) in support of the ART Baseline Graphite Characterization Program.1,2 Millions of raw data points have been collected during testing and quantification analyses for these billets. The summary scalar property values and supplementary traceability data are collected into comprehensive spreadsheets. Data sets are composed of single billets of graphite for any given grade, organized by mechanical test-specimen type, and further subdivided into individual spreadsheet tabs according to the specific test or evaluation being performed. A direct analysis of properties was not conducted, and this report does not provide information on the validity or performance characteristics of the graphite itself. Rather, this report is intended as a verification of the completeness of actual data collected in accordance with PLN-3467, “Baseline Graphite Characterization Plan: Electromechanical Testing,”3 and their representation of the measurement and test results with sole regard to the graphite billets under evaluation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The very forward CASTOR calorimeter of the CMS experiment

The physics motivation, detector design, triggers, calibration, alignment, simulation, and overall performance of the very forward CASTOR calorimeter of the CMS experiment are reviewed. The CASTOR Cherenkov sampling calorimeter is located very close to the LHC beam line, at a radial distance of about 1 cm from the beam pipe, and at 14.4 m from the CMS interaction point, covering the pseudorapidity range of $-$6.6 $\lt\eta\lt$ $-$5.2. It was designed to withstand high ambient radiation and strong magnetic fields. The performance of the detector in measurements of forward energy density, jets, and processes characterized by rapidity gaps, is reviewed using data collected in proton and nuclear collisions at the LHC.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NSDS Nuclear Science Data Solutions [Poster]

NSDS is the adept coordination of Los Alamos National Laboratory's nuclear science data, including the collection, integration, storage and access. The poster highlights historical milestones.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

An Experimental Investigation of Students’ Learning Effects When Using a Simplified Nuclear Simulator

Securing enough data has been a main challenge in human reliability analysis (HRA). Many researchers and institutes have made a lot of efforts for collecting HRA data to produce reasonable human error probabilities (HEPs) as well as reduce the uncertainty of HRA quantification. Representatively, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC), Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have led lots of empirical research regarding the HRA data collection. The U.S. NRC and KAERI have mainly carried out full-scope simulator research collecting HRA data through experiments using full-scope simulators with actual operators. In contrast, INL has experimentally collected the data using simplified simulators and student operators. INL has proposed the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) framework to complement full-scope data collection efforts by suggesting a way to infer full-scope data based on experimental data collected from students operating simplified simulators, specifically the Rancor Microworld Simulator (Rancor) and the Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS). The aim of the SHEEP framework is to lower the entry point for collecting useful HRA data by securing large sample sizes at a reasonable amount of cost and labor while also guaranteeing a high degree of freedom when designing experiments. The authors’ previous research investigated whether data collected from the SHEEP framework could support a representative full-scope study. Besides, human performance differences between professional and student operators when using Rancor and CNS have been analyzed to understand the lack of fidelity of the simplified simulators and student operators within the SHEEP study. As a follow up research, this study experimentally investigates students’ learning effects and the performance trends over a certain period when using Rancor. This study aims to find out 1) how much training or education is required to collect HRA data from non-experts (i.e., students) when using Rancor and 2) how much differences there are in human performance measures between students and professional operators. In this study, a longitudinal experiment is developed. The four experiment trials with two weeks interval are carried out for sixteen undergraduate students majoring nuclear engineering at Chosun University. Totally four scenarios randomly selected from ten Rancor scenarios are used in each experiment trial. Four human performance measurements (i.e., workload, situation awareness, time and error) are considered in the experiment. Lastly, the trend of students’ performance is compared with operator data having been collected from the previous experiment.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report - PCEA Billet 02S8-5

The purpose of this engineering calculations and analysis report (ECAR) is to present data collected in the Baseline Graphite Characterization Program, which is directly tasked with supporting the Idaho National Laboratory's (INL's) research and development efforts on the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program. This program populates a comprehensive database that reflects the baseline properties of nuclear-grade graphite regarding individual grade, billet, and position within individual billets. The physical- and mechanical-property information being collected will be transferred to the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and that database will help populate the handbook of property data available to member nations of the Generation-IV International Forum. Transfer of these data from the applicable technical lead to the dissemination databases available to other end users requires a full review of the test procedures and data-collection efforts through an analysis of the multiple summary spreadsheets and values being collected. This report represents the analysis for PCEA Billet 02S8-5 and facilitates release of associated data to the NDMAS custodians.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report - PCEA Billet 01S8-9

The purpose of this engineering calculations and analysis report (ECAR) is to present data collected in the Baseline Graphite Characterization Program, which is directly tasked with supporting the Idaho National Laboratory's (INL's) research and development efforts on the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program. This program populates a comprehensive database that reflects the baseline properties of nuclear-grade graphite with regard to individual grade, billet, and position within individual billets. The physical- and mechanical-property information being collected will be transferred to the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and that database will help populate the handbook of property data available to member nations of the Generation-IV International Forum. Transfer of these data from the applicable technical lead to the dissemination databases available to other end users requires a full review of the test procedures and data-collection efforts through an analysis of the multiple summary spreadsheets and values being collected. This report represents the analysis for PCEA Billet 01S8-9 and facilitates release of associated data to the NDMAS custodians.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗