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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental exposure to industrial air pollution is associated with decreased male fertility

Objective: To understand how chronic exposure to industrial air pollution is associated with male fertility through semen parameters. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Men in the Subfertility, Health and Assisted Reproduction cohort who underwent a semen analysis 2005-2017 with ≥1 measured semen parameter (N=21,563). Intervention(s): Residential histories for each man were constructed using locations from administrative records linked through the Utah Population Database. Industrial facilities with air emissions of nine endocrine disrupting compound chemical classes were identified from the Environmental Protection Agency Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators microdata. Chemical levels were linked with residential histories for the 5 years prior to each semen analysis. Main Outcome Measures: Semen analyses were classified as azoospermic or oligozoospermic (< 15 M/mL) using World Health Organization cutoffs for concentration. Bulk semen parameters such as concentration, total count, ejaculate volume, total motility, total motile count, and total progressive motile count were also measured. Multivariable regression models with robust standard errors were used to associate exposure quartiles for each of the nine chemical classes with each semen parameter, adjusting for age, race, and ethnicity, as well as neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage. Results: After adjustment for demographic covariates, several chemical classes were associated with azoospermia and decreased total motility and volume. For exposure in the 4th relative to 1st quartile, significant associations were observed for acrylonitrile (β total motility = -0.87 pp), aromatic hydrocarbons (odds ratio [OR]azoospermia = 1.53; β volume = -0.14 mL), dioxins (OR azoospermia = 1.31; β volume = -0.09 mL; β total motility = -2.65 pp), heavy metals (β total motility = -2.78pp), organic solvents (OR azoospermia = 1.75; β volume = -0.10 mL), organochlorines (OR azoospermia = 2.09; β volume = -0.12 mL), phthalates (OR azoospermia = 1.44; β volume = -0.09 mL; β total motility = -1.21 pp), and silver particles (OR azoospermia = 1.64; β volume = -0.11 mL). All semen parameters significantly decreased with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage. Men who lived in the most disadvantaged areas had concentration, volume, and total motility of 6.70 M/mL, 0.13 mL, and 1.79 pp lower, respectively. Count, motile count, and total progressive motile count all decreased by 30–34 M.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Association Between Dispatch Complaint and Critical Prehospital Time Intervals in Suspected Stroke 911 Activations in the National Emergency Medical Services Information System, 2012–2016

Emergency Medical Services can help improve stroke outcomes by recognizing stroke symptoms, establishing response priority for 911 calls, and minimizing prehospital delays. This study examines 911 stroke events and evaluates associations between events dispatched as stroke and critical EMS time intervals. Data from the National Emergency Medical Services Information System, 2012 to 2016, were analyzed. Activations from 911 calls with a primary or secondary provider impression of stroke were included for adult patients transported to a hospital destination. Three prehospital time intervals were evaluated: (1) response time (RT) ≤8 min, (2) on-scene time (OST) ≤15 min, and (3) transport time (TT) ≤12 min. Associations between stroke dispatch complaint and prehospital time intervals were assessed using multivariate regression to estimate adjusted risk ratios (ARR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Approximately 37% of stroke dispatch complaints were identified by EMS as a suspected stroke. Compared to stroke events without a stroke dispatch complaint, median OST was shorter for events with a stroke dispatch (16 min vs. 14 min, respectively). In adjusted analyses, events dispatched as stroke were more likely to meet the EMS time benchmark for OST ≤15 min (OST, 1.20 [1.20–1.21]), but not RT or TT (RT, [1.00–1.01]; TT, 0.95 [0.94–0.95]). Furthermore, our results indicate that dispatcher recognition of stroke symptoms reduces the time spent on-scene by EMS personnel. These findings can inform future EMS stroke education and quality improvement efforts to emphasize dispatcher recognition of stroke signs and symptoms, as EMS dispatchers play a crucial role in optimizing the prehospital response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Noninvasive liquid level sensing with laser generated ultrasonic waves

This article proposes a noninvasive liquid level sensing technique using laser-generated ultrasound waves for nuclear power plant applications. Liquid level sensors play an important role of managing the coolant system safely and stably in the plant structure. Current sensing techniques are mostly intrusive, performing inside the fluidic structure, which is disadvantageous in terms of the regular maintenance of the plant system. Furthermore, typical intrusive sensors do not perform stably under varying environmental conditions such as temperature and radiation. In this study, sensing units are attached to the outer surface of a liquid vessel to capture guided ultrasound waves in a nonintrusive manner. The signal intensity of the guided wave dissipates when the signal interacts with the internal liquid media. The sensing mechanism is mathematically expressed as an index value to correlate the liquid level with the sensor signal. For the acoustic wave generation, laser-generated ultrasound was adopted instead of using typical contact type transducers. Following the simulation validation of the proposed concept, the performance of the developed sensor was confirmed through experimental results under elevated liquid temperature conditions. Finally, the nonlinear multivariable regression exhibited the best-fit to the datasets measured under the variable liquid level and temperature conditions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Precipitation Parameters on the Specific Surface Area of PuO 2

Controlling the properties of PuO 2 through processing is of vital importance to environmental transport and fate, production of nuclear fuels, nuclear forensic analyses, stockpile stewardship, and storage of nuclear wastes applications. A number of processing conditions have been identified to control final product properties, including specific surface area (SSA), residual carbon content, adsorption of volatile species, morphology, and particle size. In this paper, a novel approach is developed for the prediction of PuO 2 SSA via the synthetic route of Pu(IV) oxalate precipitation followed by calcination. The proposed model utilizes multivariate regression methodology and leave one out formalism to link Savannah River Site (SRS) precipitation and calcination production data to the SSA of the final product. A comparison among the models provides insight into the accuracy and ability to identify variations amongst the processing data. Additionally, the models may also be used to fit new data outside of the parameters explored in a production facility. Finally, the trained model was compared to a similarly trained conventional model form to illustrate the influence of precipitation parameters on the prediction of the final SSA. The models presented here attempt to provide new methods for more accurate prediction of the PuO 2 product properties in a production scale environment for key environmental and nuclear applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symptoms and Systemic Drug Reactions in Persons Receiving Weekly Rifapentine Plus Isoniazid (3HP) Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Abstract Background Three months of weekly rifapentine plus isoniazid (3HP) therapy for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is recommended worldwide. The development of symptoms and systemic drug reactions (SDRs) on 3HP have not been fully characterized. We aimed to determine the patterns of symptom development and identify SDRs and associated factors in patients taking 3HP. Methods We analyzed symptoms data in participants receiving 3HP in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium's iAdhere study (Study 33). We examined the patterns of symptom reporting across participants from baseline and 4 monthly visits. Bivariate analyses and multivariable regression models were used to identify factors associated with SDRs. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results Among 1002 participants receiving 3HP, 768 (77%) reported at least 1 symptom; 97% of these symptoms were grade 1 (79%) or grade 2 (18%). Most symptoms developed in the first month and resolved. A total of 111 (11%) participants had symptoms that met criteria for SDRs; however, 53 (48%) of these participants completed therapy. Factors associated with SDRs and discontinuation included female sex (RR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.19–3.54), age ≥45 years (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.19–3.31), and use of concomitant medications (RR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.15–4.42). Conclusions Although most patients receiving 3HP reported symptoms, most were mild, occurred early, and resolved without stopping treatment. Among patients experiencing SDRs, nearly half were able to complete therapy. Patient and provider education should focus on differentiating severe reactions where 3HP should be stopped from minor symptoms that will resolve. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01582711.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of Supercritical CO2 Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchangers Under Extreme Conditions. Part I: Correlation Development

Abstract High-temperature supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles are promising possibilities for future stationary power generation and hybrid electric propulsion applications. Heat exchangers are critical components in supercritical CO2 thermal cycles and require accurate correlations and comprehensive performance modeling under extreme temperatures and pressures. In this paper (Part I), new Colburn and friction factor correlations are developed to quantify shell-side heat transfer and friction characteristics of flow within heat exchangers in the shell-and-tube configuration. Using experimental and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data sets from existing literature, multivariate regression analysis is conducted to achieve correlations that capture the effect of multiple critical geometric parameters. These correlations offer superior accuracy and versatility as compared to previous studies and predict the thermohydraulic performance of about 90% of the existing experimental and CFD data within ±15%. Supplementary thermohydraulic performance data are acquired from CFD simulations with supercritical CO2 as working fluid to validate the developed correlations and demonstrate its capability to be applied to supercrtical CO2 heat exchangers.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genetic Predictive Factors for Nonsusceptible Phenotypes and Multidrug Resistance in Expanded-Spectrum Cephalosporin-Resistant Uropathogenic Escherichia coli from a Multicenter Cohort: Insights into the Phenotypic and Genetic Basis of Coresistance

Antimicrobial resistance in urinary tract infections (UTIs) is a major public health concern. This study aims to characterize the phenotypic and genetic basis of multidrug resistance (MDR) among expanded-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant (ESCR) uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) causing UTIs in California patient populations. Between February and October 2019, 577 ESCR UPEC isolates were collected from patients at 6 clinical laboratory sites across California. Lineage and antibiotic resistance genes were determined by analysis of whole-genome sequence data. The lineages ST131, ST1193, ST648, and ST69 were predominant, representing 46%, 5.5%, 4.5%, and 4.5% of the collection, respectively. Overall, 527 (91%) isolates had an expanded-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) phenotype, with bla CTX-M-15 , bla CTX-M-27 , bla CTX-M-55 , and bla CTX-M-14 being the most prevalent ESBL genes. In the 50 non-ESBL phenotype isolates, 40 (62%) contained bla CMY-2 , which was the predominant plasmid-mediated AmpC (pAmpC) gene. Narrow-spectrum β-lactamases, bla TEM-1B and bla OXA-1 , were also found in 44.9% and 32.1% of isolates, respectively. Among ESCR UPEC isolates, isolates with an ESBL phenotype had a 1.7-times-greater likelihood of being MDR than non-ESBL phenotype isolates (P < 0.001). The cooccurrence of bla CTX-M-15 , bla OXA-1 , and aac(6')-Ib-cr within ESCR UPEC isolates was strongly correlated. Cooccurrence of bla CTX-M-15 , bla OXA-1 , and aac(6')-Ib-cr was associated with an increased risk of nonsusceptibility to piperacillin-tazobactam, cefepime, fluoroquinolones, and amikacin as well as MDR. Multivariate regression revealed the presence of bla CTX-M-55 , bla TEM-1B , and the ST131 genotype as predictors of MDR.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of Mechanical Fractionation of Chopped Whole-Plant Corn (WPC) Using Discrete Element Method (DEM)

Fractionating whole-plant corn (WPC) in a single-pass harvesting system requires studies on the WPC-to-equipment interaction for improved property control, as well as mechanical and air-driven separation processes compared to the traditional multi-pass grain and stover harvesting system. The discrete element method (DEM) technique has the potential to simulate WPC mechanical fractionation and support simulation-based design of WPC separation processes. In this study, methods to develop DEM particle models of WPC (kernel, cob, stalk, and husk) and their material properties for simulating mass fractionation using the ASABE standard mechanical shaker were proposed. Measurement was done on the axial dimensions (major, intermediate, and minor) and mass of each WPC type (mean sample size is 56), sampled from single-pass harvesting. Applying gaussian multivariate regression and bootstrapping re-sampling techniques, a DEM particle approximate to each WPC was developed. Sensitivity analysis of the DEM Young‘s modulus, Poisson‘s ratio, and interaction parameters of coefficient of restitution, coefficient of rolling friction, and coefficient of static friction on mass fraction was performed after 156 ASABE sieve-shaking DEM simulation runs, generated using Latin Hypercube Design (LHD) design of experiment (DOE) from 19 DEM material parameters. DEM simulation using Hertz-Mindlin with flexible bond contact laws and DOE optimized material properties successfully reproduced the mass fractions retained in ASABE sieves at 9.8% mean relative error and a coefficient of determination of R2 = 0.87. Here, the DEM methodology developed for mechanical WPC mass fractionation could be deployed to perform virtual design of feedstock handling equipment and performance analysis of mechanical fraction systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of acute temperature and air pollution exposures on adult lung function: A panel study of asthmatics

Background Individuals with respiratory conditions, such as asthma, are particularly susceptible to adverse health effects associated with higher levels of ambient air pollution and temperature. This study evaluates whether hourly levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and dry bulb globe temperature (DBGT) are associated with the lung function of adult participants with asthma. Methods and findings Global positioning system (GPS) location, respiratory function (measured as forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV 1 )), and self-reports of asthma medication usage and symptoms were collected as part of the Exposure, Location, and Lung Function (ELF) study. Hourly ambient PM 2.5 and DBGT exposures were estimated by integrating air quality and temperature public records with time-activity patterns using GPS coordinates for each participant (n = 35). The relationships between acute PM 2.5 , DBGT, rescue bronchodilator use, and lung function collected in one week periods and over two seasons (summer/winter) were analyzed by multivariate regression, using different exposure time frames. In separate models, increasing levels in PM 2.5 , but not DBGT, were associated with rescue bronchodilator use. Conversely DBGT, but not PM 2.5 , had a significant association with FEV 1 . When DBGT and PM 2.5 exposures were placed in the same model, the strongest association between cumulative PM 2.5 exposures and the use of rescue bronchodilator was identified at the 0–24 hours (OR = 1.030; 95% CI = 1.012–1.049; p-value = 0.001) and 0–48 hours (OR = 1.030; 95% CI = 1.013–1.057; p-value = 0.001) prior to lung function measure. Conversely, DBGT exposure at 0 hours (β = 3.257; SE = 0.879; p-value>0.001) and 0–6 hours (β = 2.885; SE = 0.903; p-value = 0.001) hours before a reading were associated with FEV 1 . No significant interactions between DBGT and PM 2.5 were observed for rescue bronchodilator use or FEV 1 . Conclusions Short-term increases in PM 2.5 were associated with increased rescue bronchodilator use, while DBGT was associated with higher lung function (i.e. FEV 1 ). Further studies are needed to continue to elucidate the mechanisms of acute exposure to PM 2.5 and DBGT on lung function in asthmatics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cliff Retreat Rates Associated with a Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA

We present an analysis and interpretation of potential cliff stability at a low-level waste disposal facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, using cliff morphologic and fracture characteristics coupled with carbon-14 surface exposure dating. Our study is important as it directly bears on the licensing criteria for low-level radioactive waste sites. We find that future characteristic cliff failures will likely not breach disposal pits and shafts over the 1000-year minimum regulatory period. Further, we find, using a multivariate regression model, that slope angle and cliff face aspect are sub-equal in importance to predict regions of high risk of failure when combined with surface exposure ages and assuming that old exposure ages are most indicative of stability (instability) and therefore can aid decision making in final design implementation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1980

Seismicity and the subduction process

There is considerable variation between subduction zones in the largest characteristic earthquake within each zone. Assuming that coupling between downgoing and upper plates is directly related to characteristic earthquake size, tests for correlations between variation in coupling and other physical features of subduction zones are conducted: the lateral extent and penetration depth of Benioff zones, age of subducting lithosphere, convergence rate, and back-arc spreading. Using linear multivariate regression, coupling is correlated with two variables: convergence rate and lithosphere age. Secondary correlations within the data set are penetration depth versus lithosphere age, and lateral extent versus convergence rate. Taken together, the observed correlations suggest a simple qualitative model where convergence rate and lithosphere age determine the horizontal and sinking rates, respectively, of slabs: these parameters influence the seismic coupling in the subduction zone. In the limit of a fast sinking rate and slow convergence rate, back-arc spreading occurs and thereby appears to be a passive process.

Ruff, L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Longitudinal flying qualities criteria for single-pilot instrument flight operations

Modern estimation and control theory, flight testing, and statistical analysis were used to deduce flying qualities criteria for General Aviation Single Pilot Instrument Flight Rule (SPIFR) operations. The principal concern is that unsatisfactory aircraft dynamic response combined with high navigation/communication workload can produce problems of safety and efficiency. To alleviate these problems. The relative importance of these factors must be determined. This objective was achieved by flying SPIFR tasks with different aircraft dynamic configurations and assessing the effects of such variations under these conditions. The experimental results yielded quantitative indicators of pilot's performance and workload, and for each of them, multivariate regression was applied to evaluate several candidate flying qualities criteria.

Stengel, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Assessing the capability of EOS sensors in measuring ocean-atmosphere moisture exchange

As part of the Science Synergism Studies to identify interdisciplinary Scientific studies, which could be addressed by the Environmental Observing System (EOS), the techniques being developed to measure ocean-atmosphere moisture exchanges using satellite sensors were evaluated. Studies required to use sensors proposed for EOS were examined. A method has been developed to compute the moisture flux using the wind speed, sea surface temperature, and preciptable water measured by satellite sensors. It relies on a statistical model which predicts surface-level humidity from precipitable water. The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) measures all 3 parameters and was found to be sensitive to the annual cycle and large interannual variations such as the 1982 to 1983 El Nino. There are systematic differences between geophysical parameters measured by Nimbus/SMMR and in situ measurements. After quadratic trends and crosstalks were removed from the parameters through multivariate regressions, the latent heat fluxes computed from SMMR agree with those computed from ship reports to within 30 W/sq m. The poor quality of ship reports may be the cause of a portion of this scatter. Similar results are found using SEASAT/SMMR data. When the scatterometer winds were used instead of the SMMR winds, the difference between the satellite fluxes and the ship fluxes was reduced.

Liu, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Longitudinal flying qualitites criteria for single-pilot instrument flight operations

Modern estimation and control theory, flight testing, and statistical analysis were used to deduce flying qualities criteria for General Aviation Single Pilot Instrument Flight Rule (SPIFR) operations. The principal concern is that unsatisfactory aircraft dynamic response combined with high navigation/communication workload can produce problems of safety and efficiency. To alleviate these problems, the relative importance of these factors must be determined. This objective was achieved by flying SPIFR tasks with different aircraft dynamic configurations and assessing the effects of such variations under these conditions. The experimental results yielded quantitative indicators of pilot's performance and workload, and for each of them, multivariate regression was applied to evaluate several candidate flying qualities criteria.

Bar-Gill, A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Diet and the role of lipoproteins, lipases, and thyroid hormones in coronary lesion growth

The relationships between the coronary lesion growth and the blood contents of lipoprotein fractions, thyroic hormones, and the lipoprotein lipase activity were investigated in male patients with severe coronary atherosclerosis, who participated in a lipid-lowering dietary intervention program. A quantitative computer-assisted image-processing technique was used to assess the severity of coronary obstructions at the beginning of the program and at its termination two years later. Based on absolute coronary scores, patients were divided into a no-lesion growth group (14 patients) and a progression group (21 paients). At the end of the trial, the very-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides were found to be significantly higher, while the high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and hepatic lipase (HL) were lower in the progression group. Multivariate regression analysis showed HL to be the most important determinant of changes in coronary atherosclerotic lesions.

Barth, Jacques D.↗