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A Predictive Model for Lake Chad Total Surface Water Area Using Remotely Sensed and Modeled Hydrological and Meteorological Parameters and Multivariate Regression Analysis

Lake Chad is an endorheic lake in the Sahel region of Africa at the southern edge of the Sahara Desert. The lake, which is well known for its dramatic decrease in surface area during the 1970s and 1980s, experiences an annual flood resulting in a maximum total surface water area generally during February or March, though sometimes earlier or later. People along the shores of Lake Chad make their living fishing, farming, and raising livestock and have a vested interest in knowing when and how extensive the annual flooding will be, particularly those practicing recession farming in which the fertile ground of previously flooded area is used for planting crops. In this study, the authors investigate the relationship between lake and basin parameters, including rainfall, basin evapotranspiration, lake evapotranspiration, lake elevation, total surface water area, and the previous year’s total surface water area, and develop equations for each dry season month (except November) linking total surface water area to the other parameters. The resulting equations allow the user to estimate the December average monthly total surface water area of the lake in late November, and to make the estimates for January to May in early December. Based on the results of a Leave One Out Cross Validation analysis, the equations for lake area are estimated to have an average absolute error ranging from 5.3 percent (for February estimates) to 7.6 percent (for May estimates).

Lake Chad

Functional Groups Based on Leaf Physiology: Are they Spatially and Temporally Robust?

The functional grouping hypothesis, which suggests that complexity in ecosystem function can be simplified by grouping species with similar responses, was tested in the Florida scrub habitat. Functional groups were identified based on how species in fire maintained Florida scrub regulate exchange of carbon and water with the atmosphere as indicated by both instantaneous gas exchange measurements and integrated measures of function (%N, delta C-13, delta N-15, C-N ratio). Using cluster analysis, five distinct physiologically-based functional groups were identified in the fire maintained scrub. These functional groups were tested to determine if they were robust spatially, temporally, and with management regime. Analysis of Similarities (ANOSIM), a non-parametric multivariate analysis, indicated that these five physiologically-based groupings were not altered by plot differences (R = -0.115, p = 0.893) or by the three different management regimes; prescribed burn, mechanically treated and burn, and fire-suppressed (R = 0.018, p = 0.349). The physiological groupings also remained robust between the two climatically different years 1999 and 2000 (R = -0.027, p = 0.725). Easy-to-measure morphological characteristics indicating functional groups would be more practical for scaling and modeling ecosystem processes than detailed gas-exchange measurements, therefore we tested a variety of morphological characteristics as functional indicators. A combination of non-parametric multivariate techniques (Hierarchical cluster analysis, non-metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling, and ANOSIM) were used to compare the ability of life form, leaf thickness, and specific leaf area classifications to identify the physiologically-based functional groups. Life form classifications (ANOSIM; R = 0.629, p 0.001) were able to depict the physiological groupings more adequately than either specific leaf area (ANOSIM; R = 0.426, p = 0.001) or leaf thickness (ANOSIM; R 0.344, p 0.001). The ability of life forms to depict the physiological groupings was improved by separating the parasitic Ximenia americana from the shrub category (ANOSIM; R = 0.794, p = 0.001). Therefore, a life form classification including parasites was determined to be a good indicator of the physiological processes of scrub species, and would be a useful method of grouping for scaling physiological processes to the ecosystem level.

Foster, Tammy E.

Accuracy of remotely sensed data: Sampling and analysis procedures

A review and update of the discrete multivariate analysis techniques used for accuracy assessment is given. A listing of the computer program written to implement these techniques is given. New work on evaluating accuracy assessment using Monte Carlo simulation with different sampling schemes is given. The results of matrices from the mapping effort of the San Juan National Forest is given. A method for estimating the sample size requirements for implementing the accuracy assessment procedures is given. A proposed method for determining the reliability of change detection between two maps of the same area produced at different times is given.

Congalton, R. G.

Survival after aortic valve replacement for severe aortic stenosis with low transvalvular gradients and severe left ventricular dysfunction

OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess whether aortic valve replacement (AVR) among patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS), severe left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and a low transvalvular gradient (TVG) is associated with improved survival. BACKGROUND: The optimal management of patients with severe AS with severe LV dysfunction and a low TVG remains controversial. METHODS: Between 1990 and 1998, we evaluated 68 patients who underwent AVR at our institution (AVR group) and 89 patients who did not undergo AVR (control group), with an aortic valve area < or = 0.75 cm(2), LV ejection fraction < or = 35% and mean gradient < or = 30 mm Hg. Using propensity analysis, survival was compared between a cohort of 39 patients in the AVR group and 56 patients in the control group. RESULTS: Despite well-matched baseline characteristics among propensity-matched patients, the one- and four-year survival rates were markedly improved in patients in the AVR group (82% and 78%), as compared with patients in the control group (41% and 15%; p < 0.0001). By multivariable analysis, the main predictor of improved survival was AVR (adjusted risk ratio 0.19, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.39; p < 0.0001). The only other predictors of mortality were age and the serum creatinine level. CONCLUSIONS: Among select patients with severe AS, severe LV dysfunction and a low TVG, AVR was associated with significantly improved survival.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary

Effect of altered sensory conditions on multivariate descriptors of human postural sway

Multivariate descriptors of sway were used to test whether altered sensory conditions result not only in changes in amount of sway but also in postural coordination. Eigenvalues and directions of eigenvectors of the covariance of shnk and hip angles were used as a set of multivariate descriptors. These quantities were measured in 14 healthy adult subjects performing the Sensory Organization test, which disrupts visual and somatosensory information used for spatial orientation. Multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis showed that resulting sway changes were at least bivariate in character, with visual and somatosensory conditions producing distinct changes in postural coordination. The most significant changes were found when somatosensory information was disrupted by sway-referencing of the support surface (P = 3.2 x 10(-10)). The resulting covariance measurements showed that subjects not only swayed more but also used increased hip motion analogous to the hip strategy. Disruption of vision, by either closing the eyes or sway-referencing the visual surround, also resulted in altered sway (P = 1.7 x 10(-10)), with proportionately more motion of the center of mass than with platform sway-referencing. As shown by discriminant analysis, an optimal univariate measure could explain at most 90% of the behavior due to altered sensory conditions. The remaining 10%, while smaller, are highly significant changes in posture control that depend on sensory conditions. The results imply that normal postural coordination of the trunk and legs requires both somatosensory and visual information and that each sensory modality makes a unique contribution to posture control. Descending postural commands are multivariate in nature, and the motion at each joint is affected uniquely by input from multiple sensors.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience

Noninvasive assessment of mitral inertness: clinical results with numerical model validation

Inertial forces (Mdv/dt) are a significant component of transmitral flow, but cannot be measured with Doppler echo. We validated a method of estimating Mdv/dt. Ten patients had a dual sensor transmitral (TM) catheter placed during cardiac surgery. Doppler and 2D echo was performed while acquiring LA and LV pressures. Mdv/dt was determined from the Bernoulli equation using Doppler velocities and TM gradients. Results were compared with numerical modeling. TM gradients (range: 1.04-14.24 mmHg) consisted of 74.0 +/- 11.0% inertial forcers (range: 0.6-12.9 mmHg). Multivariate analysis predicted Mdv/dt = -4.171(S/D (RATIO)) + 0.063(LAvolume-max) + 5. Using this equation, a strong relationship was obtained for the clinical dataset (y=0.98x - 0.045, r=0.90) and the results of numerical modeling (y=0.96x - 0.16, r=0.84). TM gradients are mainly inertial and, as validated by modeling, can be estimated with echocardiography.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary

Evaluation of Meterorite Amono Acid Analysis Data Using Multivariate Techniques

The amino acid distributions in the Murchison carbonaceous chondrite, Mars meteorite ALH84001, and ice from the Allan Hills region of Antarctica are shown, using a multivariate technique known as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), to be statistically distinct from the average amino acid compostion of 101 terrestrial protein superfamilies.

meteorites Amino acids Multivariate Analysis

Chemical and physical gradients along the OMC-1 ridge

We present a survey of the distribution of 20 chemical and isotopic molecular species along the central ridge of the Orion molecular cloud from 6' north to 6' south of BN-KL observed with the QUARRY focal plane array on the FCRAO 14 m telescope, which provides an angular resolution of approximately 50" in the 3 mm wavelength region. We use standard tools of multivariate analysis for a systematic investigation of the similarities and differences among the maps of integrated intensities of the 32 lines observed. The maps fall in three broad classes: first, those strongly peaked toward BN-KL; second, those having rather flat distributions along the ridge; and third, those with a clear north-south gradient or contrast. We identify six positions or regions where we calculate relative abundances. Line velocities and line widths indicate that the optically thin lines generally trace the same volume of dense gas, except in the molecular bar, where C18O, C34S, H13CO+, CN, C2H, SO, and C3H2 have velocities characteristic of the bar itself, whereas the emission from other detected species is dominated by the background cloud. The strongest abundance variations in our data are the well-known enhancements seen in HCN, CH3OH, HC3N, and SO toward BN-KL and, less strongly, toward the Orion-South outflow 1'.3S. The principal result of this study is that along the extended quiescent ridge the chemical abundances, within factors of 3-4, exhibit an impressive degree of uniformity. The northern part of the ridge has a chemistry closest to that found in quiescent dense clouds. While temperature and density are similar around the northern radical-ion peak near 3'.5N and in the southern core near 4'.2S, some abundances, in particular, those of the ions HCO+ and N2H+, are significantly lower toward 4'.2S. The areas near 4.'2S and the molecular bar itself around (1'.7E, 2'.4S) stand out with peculiar and similar properties probably caused by stronger UV fields penetrating deeper into the clumpy molecular gas. This leads to higher electron abundances and thereby reduced abundances of the ions, as well as a lack of complex molecules.

NASA Discipline Exobiology

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida

Multivariate analysis was used to determine the joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from 15 years of twice-daily rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component change with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and that the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh are tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from 1 to 5 hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented. Extension of the theoretical prediction (based on rawinsonde data) of wind component change standard deviation to time periods of 1 to 5 hours falls (with a few exceptions) within the 95 percentile confidence band of the population estimate obtained from the Jimsphere sample data. The joint distributions of wind change components, conditional wind components, and 1 km vector wind shear change components are illustrated by probability ellipses at the 95 percentile level.

Adelfang, S. I.

Analysis of airframe/engine interactions for a STOVL aircraft with integrated flight/propulsion control

A multivariable analysis technique is used to evaluate the effects of the dynamic cross coupling between the airframe and engine subsystems in an advanced STOVL configuration. A critical frequency range is identified along with potentially poor stability robustness due to the airframe/engine interactions. Within the critical frequency range, stability and performance are found to be sensitive to variations in the coupling between the airframe's flight path angle and the engine's fuel flow rate. A stability sensitivity study indicates that the interactions between the flight path angle and the fuel flow rate are potentially the most critical with respect to stability and performance robustness.

Schierman, John D.

Rapid measurement of soluble xylo-oligomers using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and multivariate statistics: calibration model development and practical approaches to model optimization

Rapid monitoring of biomass conversion processes using techniques such as near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy can be substantially quicker and less labor-, resource-, and energy-intensive than conventional measurement techniques such as gas or liquid chromatography (GC or LC) due to the lack of solvents and preparation methods, as well as removing the need to transfer samples to an external lab for analytical evaluation. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of rapid monitoring of a biomass conversion process using NIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate statistical modeling, and to examine the impact of (1) subsetting the samples in the original dataset by process location and (2) reducing the spectral range used in the calibration model on model performance. We develop multivariate calibration models for the concentrations of soluble xylo-oligosaccharides (XOS), monomeric xylose, and total solids at multiple points in a biomass conversion process which produces and then purifies XOS compounds from sugar cane bagasse. A single model using samples from multiple locations in the process stream showed acceptable performance as measured by standard statistical measures. However, compared to the single model, we show that separate models built by segregating the calibration samples according to process location show improved performance. We also show that combining an understanding of the sample spectra with simple multivariate analysis tools can result in a calibration model with a substantially smaller spectral range that provides essentially equal performance to the full-range model. We demonstrate that real-time monitoring of soluble xylo-oligosaccharides (XOS), monomeric xylose, and total solids concentration at multiple points in a process stream using NIR spectroscopy coupled with multivariate statistics is feasible. Segregation of sample populations by process location improves model performance. Models using a reduced spectral range containing the most relevant spectral signatures show very similar performance to the full-range model, reinforcing the importance of performing robust exploratory data analysis before beginning multivariate modeling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

An analysis of fracture trace patterns in areas of flat-lying sedimentary rocks for the detection of buried geologic structure

Two study areas in a cratonic platform underlain by flat-lying sedimentary rocks were analyzed to determine if a quantitative relationship exists between fracture trace patterns and their frequency distributions and subsurface structural closures which might contain petroleum. Fracture trace lengths and frequency (number of fracture traces per unit area) were analyzed by trend surface analysis and length frequency distributions also were compared to a standard Gaussian distribution. Composite rose diagrams of fracture traces were analyzed using a multivariate analysis method which grouped or clustered the rose diagrams and their respective areas on the basis of the behavior of the rays of the rose diagram. Analysis indicates that the lengths of fracture traces are log-normally distributed according to the mapping technique used. Fracture trace frequency appeared higher on the flanks of active structures and lower around passive reef structures. Fracture trace log-mean lengths were shorter over several types of structures, perhaps due to increased fracturing and subsequent erosion. Analysis of rose diagrams using a multivariate technique indicated lithology as the primary control for the lower grouping levels. Groupings at higher levels indicated that areas overlying active structures may be isolated from their neighbors by this technique while passive structures showed no differences which could be isolated.

Podwysocki, M. H.

Automated Algorithms for Screening Electronic Parts for Aging using Power Spectra Analysis (PSA) Data

Understanding the age of semiconductor parts being built into devices and systems is of interest for manufacturing quality control. Power spectrum analysis (PSA) is a fast, non-destructive, sensitive method for examining semiconductor parts. This talk will cover the use of multivariate analysis on both PSA data and conventional current-voltage data generated prior to PSA analysis to create algorithms that can be automated to screen semiconductor parts for aging.

Multari, Rosalie A

Practical robustness measures in multivariable control system analysis

The robustness of the stability of multivariable linear time invariant feedback control systems with respect to model uncertainty is considered using frequency domain criteria. Available robustness tests are unified under a common framework based on the nature and structure of model errors. These results are derived using a multivariable version of Nyquist's stability theorem in which the minimum singular value of the return difference transfer matrix is shown to be the multivariable generalization of the distance to the critical point on a single input, single output Nyquist diagram. Using the return difference transfer matrix, a very general robustness theorem is presented from which all of the robustness tests dealing with specific model errors may be derived. The robustness tests that explicitly utilized model error structure are able to guarantee feedback system stability in the face of model errors of larger magnitude than those robustness tests that do not. The robustness of linear quadratic Gaussian control systems are analyzed.

Lehtomaki, N. A.