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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

FOILPOLARS (Grassmannian Foil Shape Sweeps for Polar Generation) [SWR-26-095]

FOILPOLARS (Grassmannian Foil Shape Sweeps for Polar Generation): Multifidelity aerodynamic polar data generation for hydrofoil/tidal-turbine airfoil sections. Foilpolars ties together three pieces: *AeroSandbox supplies the baseline airfoil coordinates (UIUC database). *G2Aero parameterizes those shapes on a Grassmannian manifold (Karcher mean + PGA basis) and samples new perturbed shapes around that basis. *XFoil (panel method) and NeuralFoil (neural-network surrogate, shipped with AeroSandbox) each solve the resulting shapes for lift, drag, moment, and pressure at the swept angles of attack, Reynolds numbers, and n_crit values. Design optimization of foil shapes in a computationally efficient way requires polars data across many candidate shapes, not just a handful of baseline foils. However, high-fidelity CFD at that scale is too costly, and naive shape perturbation strays from realistic geometries. FOILPOLARS addresses this by loading baseline airfoils (via AeroSandbox) and mapping them onto a Grassmannian manifold (via G2Aero), computing a Karcher mean and principal geodesic analysis (PGA) basis. New shapes are sampled by perturbing PGA coefficients, keeping them close to the manifold of realistic foils. Each sampled shape is evaluated across a configurable sweep of angle of attack, Reynolds number, and critical amplification factor using two solvers: XFoil (panel method) and NeuralFoil (neural-network surrogate), producing a paired dataset of lift, drag, moment, pressure, convergence, and confidence, indexed alongside each shape's PGA coefficients and shared Grassmannian basis in a single xarray dataset. From this, FOILPOLARS produces convergence summaries and comparison plots per shape, Reynolds number, and n_crit. A command-line interface exposes each pipeline stage independently, supporting data-driven design, optimization, and machine-learning workflows for foils.

Sandhu, Rimple [National Laboratory of the Rockies↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multifidelity_Timeseries

SAND2025-03305O Multifidelity Timeseries is a user-friendly tool designed to create advanced models for analyzing time-series data. It offers three modeling options, allowing users to choose the best fit for their specific needs. The software efficiently processes multiple data sources without the need for complex sampling methods. It helps uncover patterns and insights using data. The result is it is easier to make informed decisions for projects. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Katona, Ryan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liver↗
DOE OSTI2022

Active learning with multifidelity modeling for efficient rare event simulation

Here, while multifidelity modeling provides a cost-effective way to conduct uncertainty quantification with computationally expensive models, much greater efficiency can be achieved by adaptively deciding the number of required high-fidelity (HF) simulations, depending on the type and complexity of the problem and the desired accuracy in the results. We propose a framework for active learning with multifidelity modeling emphasizing the efficient estimation of rare events. Our framework works by fusing a low-fidelity (LF) prediction with an HF-inferred correction, filtering the corrected LF prediction to decide whether to call the high-fidelity model, and for enhanced subsequent accuracy, adapting the correction for the LF prediction after every HF model call. The framework does not make any assumptions as to the LF model type or its correlations with the HF model. In addition, for improved robustness when estimating smaller failure probabilities, we propose using dynamic active learning functions that decide when to call the HF model. We demonstrate our framework using several academic case studies (including some high-dimensional problems) and two finite element model case studies: estimating Navier-Stokes velocities using the Stokes approximation and estimating stresses in a transversely isotropic model subjected to displacements via a coarsely meshed isotropic model. Across these case studies, not only did the proposed framework estimate the failure probabilities accurately, but compared with either Monte Carlo or a standard variance reduction method, it also required only a small fraction of the calls to the HF model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable algorithms for physics-informed neural and graph networks

Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) has emerged as a promising new approach for simulating complex physical and biological systems that are governed by complex multiscale processes for which some data are also available. In some instances, the objective is to discover part of the hidden physics from the available data, and PIML has been shown to be particularly effective for such problems for which conventional methods may fail. Unlike commercial machine learning where training of deep neural networks requires big data, in PIML big data are not available. Instead, we can train such networks from additional information obtained by employing the physical laws and evaluating them at random points in the space–time domain. Such PIML integrates multimodality and multifidelity data with mathematical models, and implements them using neural networks or graph networks. Here, we review some of the prevailing trends in embedding physics into machine learning, using physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) based primarily on feed-forward neural networks and automatic differentiation. For more complex systems or systems of systems and unstructured data, graph neural networks (GNNs) present some distinct advantages, and here we review how physics-informed learning can be accomplished with GNNs based on graph exterior calculus to construct differential operators; we refer to these architectures as physics-informed graph networks (PIGNs). We present representative examples for both forward and inverse problems and discuss what advances are needed to scale up PINNs, PIGNs and more broadly GNNs for large-scale engineering problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Approach to Sensitivity Estimation in Large-Eddy Simulation

A novel approach to compute affordable approximate sensitivities in a large-eddy simulation (LES) is proposed and assessed. The approach is based on solving a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) problem that has been linearized around the mean LES solution, with closure modeling required for the linearized changes in turbulent Reynolds stresses. In the present study, the closure modeling is based on a linearized algebraic turbulence model. The method is assessed for the flow over a NACA0012 airfoil at a fixed angle of attack, with the Reynolds number as the variable parameter. The results show that, provided an accurate linearized closure model, the method predicts the correct sensitivity of the skin friction coefficient and the mean velocity field at the cost of a linearized RANS, which provides an important proof-of-concept for this approach. Here, the linearized algebraic turbulence model with standard model coefficients produces a reasonably accurate sensitivity, but the results also suggest that accuracy could be gained from recalibrating the model coefficients for this new use of the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stacked networks improve physics-informed training: Applications to neural networks and deep operator networks

Physics-informed neural networks and operator networks have shown promise for effectively solving equations modeling physical systems. However, these networks can happen to be difficult or impossible to train accurately. Here, we present a novel multifidelity framework for stacking physics-informed neural networks and operator networks that facilitates training. We successively build a chain of networks, where the output at one step can act as a low-fidelity input for training a longer chain, gradually increasing the expressivity of the learnt model. The equations imposed at each step of the iterative process can be the same or different (akin to simulated annealing). The iterative (stacking) nature of the proposed method allows us to learn progressively features of a solution which could have been hard to learn directly. Through benchmark problems including a nonlinear pendulum, the wave equation, and the viscous Burgers equation, we show how stacking can be used to improve the accuracy and reduce the required size of physics-informed neural networks and operator networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction and uncertainty quantification of shale well performance using multifidelity Monte Carlo

Uncertainty quantification is an integral component of reservoir management, especially considering the inherent uncertainty in subsurface systems. While a standard practice to estimate the uncertainty, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intense when the sampling population comprises high-fidelity simulations. Alternatively, the Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) simulation overcomes this computational intensity by integrating low- and high-fidelity simulations. Our goal is to minimize the number of expensive high-fidelity simulations while maintaining accuracy and using numerous fast and cheap low-fidelity simulations to efficiently sample to input parameter space of interest. We selected gas production from unconventional wells to demonstrate the potential speedups and accuracy of the MFMC approach. The model fidelity usually determines the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. While the high-fidelity model is more accurate, the low-fidelity model is more efficient. Our high-fidelity simulation includes reservoir simulations of a hydraulically fractured well. On the other hand, our low-fidelity model comprises the parallel-plate flow model. We used differential programming to efficiently solve the 1D flow model, where automatic differentiation is used to efficiently compute the gradients. We matched the production profile of high-fidelity simulations with our low-fidelity simulations. Then, we used a support vector regression to map the high- and low-fidelity input parameters. The mapping function is essential to tune the low-dimensional parameter space of the low-fidelity model to the high-dimensional parameter space of the high-fidelity model. We found that we can use a combination of 9 high fidelity and 10,000 low fidelity simulations to efficiently and accurately simulate pressure management. This method is at least two orders of magnitude faster than only using high-fidelity simulations. Finally, from a broader perspective, MFMC could efficiently estimate the uncertainty of various systems and models, integrating low- and high-fidelity models.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Reliability Analysis using Generalized Multifidelity Modeling and Explainable Active Learning

To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity validation of digital surrogates using variable-density turbulent mixing models

In this study, ensembles of experimental data are presented and utilized to compare and validate two models used in the simulation of variable-density (Atwood = 0.22), compressible turbulent mixing. Though models of this kind (Reynolds averaged NavierStokes and large-eddy simulations) have been validated extensively with more canonical flows in previous studies, here the present approach offers novelty in the complexity of the geometry, the ensemble-based validation, and the uniformity of the computational framework on which the models are tested. Moreover, all experimental and computational tasks were completed by the authors which has led to a tightly coupled experimental configuration with its “digital twin.” The experimental divergent-shock-tube facility and its data acquisition methods are described and replicated in simulation space. A 2D Euler model which neglects the turbulent mixing at the interface is optimized to experimental data using a Gaussian process. This model then serves as the basis for both the 2D RANS and 3D LES studies that make comparisons to the mixing-layer data from the experiment. A relatively simple RANS model is shown to produce good agreement with experimental data only at late flow development times. The LES ensembles generally show good agreement with experimental data but display sensitivity to the characterization of initial conditions. Resolution-dependent behavior is also observed for certain higher-order statistics of interest. Overall, the LES model successfully captures the effects of divergent geometry, compressibility, and combined nonlinear instabilities inherent to the problem. The successful prediction of mixing width and its growth rate highlight the existence of three distinct regimes in the development of the instability, each with similarities to previously studied instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification with models based on dissimilar parameters

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification (MF UQ) sampling approaches have been shown to significantly reduce the variance of statistical estimators while preserving the bias of the highest-fidelity model, provided that the low-fidelity models are well correlated. However, maintaining a high level of correlation can be challenging, especially when models depend on different input uncertain parameters, which drastically reduces the correlation. Existing MF UQ approaches do not adequately address this issue. In this work, we propose a new sampling strategy that exploits a shared space to improve the correlation among models with dissimilar parameterization. We achieve this by transforming the original coordinates onto an auxiliary manifold using the adaptive basis (AB) method (Tipireddy and Ghanem, 2014). The AB method has two main benefits: (1) it provides an effective tool to identify the low-dimensional manifold on which each model can be represented, and (2) it enables easy transformation of polynomial chaos representations from high- to low-dimensional spaces. This latter feature is used to identify a shared manifold among models without requiring additional evaluations. Here we present two algorithmic flavors of the new estimator to cover different analysis scenarios, including those with legacy and non-legacy high-fidelity (HF) data. We provide numerical results for analytical examples, a direct field acoustic test, and a finite element model of a nuclear fuel assembly. For all examples, we compare the proposed strategy against both single-fidelity and MF estimators based on the original model parameterization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Release on the Virtual Test Bed of a Molten Salt Reactor Experiment SAM-Pronghorn Coupled Model using the Domain Overlapping Approach

The nuclear industry is taking leaps in innovations with companies seeking a sustainable energy future through advanced nuclear reactors. The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program seeks to substantiate and bolster the deployment of advanced reactors through flexible multifidelity, multiphysics simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Applications like SAM for one-dimensional systems thermalhydraulics, and Pronghorn for multidimensional coarse mesh thermal-hydraulics, are geared to support innovations in industry by facilitating design, optimization, and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. Coupling systems thermal-hydraulics and computational fluid dynamics codes can be difficult as the pressure coupling converges slowly; however, it is important to obtain the desired accuracy in each part of the primary loop. The authors of this model created an Overlapping-Domain Coupling (ODC) approach to coupling SAM and Pronghorn. Leveraging this coupling technique, a Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) model was developed and released to the NEAMS/National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB). The MSRE was chosen to be modeled because of the wealth of experimental data available and because of the strong physics coupling between the core and primary circuit. This paper contextualizes the history of the MSRE, describes the thermal hydraulics models used, and detail the implementation of multidimensional thermal-hydraulics and system codes based on the ODC method for the MSRE model. Finally, this paper presents how other modelers could apply the SAM Pronghorn ODC for other advanced reactor models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Release on the Virtual Test Bed of an MSRE thermal hydraulics model

The nuclear industry is taking leaps in innovations with companies seeking a sustainable energy future through advanced nuclear reactors. The \gls{DOE}’s \gls{neams} program seeks to substantiate and bolster the deployment of advanced reactors through flexible multifidelity, multiphysics simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Applications like SAM for one-dimensional systems thermal-hydraulics, and Pronghorn for multidimensional coarse mesh thermal-hydraulics, are geared to support innovations in industry by facilitating design, optimization, and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. Coupling systems thermal-hydraulics and computational fluid dynamics codes can be difficult as the pressure coupling converges slowly; however, it is important to obtain the desired accuracy in each part of the primary loop. The authors of this model created an \gls{odc}~\cite{Mau23} approach to coupling SAM and Pronghorn. Leveraging this coupling technique, a \gls{msre} model was developed and released to the \gls{neams}/\gls{nric} \gls{vtb}. The \gls{msre} was chosen to be modeled because of the wealth of experimental data available and because of the strong physics coupling between the core and primary circuit \cite{doi:10.13182/NT8-2-118}. This document contextualizes the history of the \gls{msre}, describes the thermal hydraulics models used, and detail the implementation of multidimensional thermal-hydraulics and system codes based on the \gls{odc} method~\cite{Penn} for the \gls{msre} model. Finally, this document presents how other modelers could apply the SAM-Pronghorn \gls{odc} for other advanced reactor models. Current item is the set of slides for ANS Winter 23. The release of the model and the ANS summary have already been approved

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Release on the Virtual Test Bed of an MSRE thermal hydraulics model

The nuclear industry is taking leaps in innovations with companies seeking a sustainable energy future through advanced nuclear reactors. The \gls{DOE}’s \gls{neams} program seeks to substantiate and bolster the deployment of advanced reactors through flexible multifidelity, multiphysics simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Applications like SAM for one-dimensional systems thermal-hydraulics, and Pronghorn for multidimensional coarse mesh thermal-hydraulics, are geared to support innovations in industry by facilitating design, optimization, and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. Coupling systems thermal-hydraulics and computational fluid dynamics codes can be difficult as the pressure coupling converges slowly; however, it is important to obtain the desired accuracy in each part of the primary loop. The authors of this model created an \gls{odc}~\cite{Mau23} approach to coupling SAM and Pronghorn. Leveraging this coupling technique, a \gls{msre} model was developed and released to the \gls{neams}/\gls{nric} \gls{vtb}. The \gls{msre} was chosen to be modeled because of the wealth of experimental data available and because of the strong physics coupling between the core and primary circuit \cite{doi:10.13182/NT8-2-118}. This document contextualizes the history of the \gls{msre}, describes the thermal hydraulics models used, and detail the implementation of multidimensional thermal-hydraulics and system codes based on the \gls{odc} method~\cite{Penn} for the \gls{msre} model. Finally, this document presents how other modelers could apply the SAM-Pronghorn \gls{odc} for other advanced reactor models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗