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NASA NTRS1998

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Changes After the 1991 Pinatubo Eruption

Passive microwave channels like those flown on the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) contain two primary type of information on oceanic precipitation: condensate below the freezing level and precipitation-size condensate above the freezing level. The authors explore the question of whether these two separate pieces of information might contain insight into climate processes during a perturbation in the climate system. In particular, the relative fluctuations of rain and ice signals could be related to precipitation efficiency, an important determinant of the equilibrium climate, and thus a potential feedback mechanism in climate change. As an example of this potential application, SSM/I-derived liquid and frozen precipitation signals are used to infer changes in tropical oceanic precipitation characteristics during the cool period following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The need for an assessment of the temperature sensitivity of precipitation-retrieval algorithms is also discussed.

Spencer, Roy W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rehydrated glass embayments record the cooling of a Yellowstone ignimbrite

Abstract Hydration fronts penetrate 50–135 μm into glassy rhyolite embayments hosted in quartz crystals from the Mesa Falls Tuff in the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field. The hydration fronts occur as steep enrichments that reach 2.4 ± 0.6 wt% H2O at the embayment opening, representing much higher values than interior concentrations of 0.9 ± 0.2 wt% H2O. Molecular water accounts for most of the water enrichment. Water speciation indicates the hydration fronts comprise absorbed meteoric water that modified the original magmatic composition of the rhyolitic glass. We used finite difference diffusion models to demonstrate that glass rehydration was likely produced over a few decades as the ignimbrite cooled. Such temperatures and time scales are consistent with rare firsthand observations of decadal hydrothermal systems associated with cooling ignimbrites at Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) and the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (Alaska).

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗
NASA NTRS1992

The NDSC Primary Site at the Observatoire De Haute-provence: Ozone and Aerosols Observations (1986-1992)

The primary site of the newly implemented Network for Detection of Stratospheric Changes (NDSC) includes three main sites in the alpine regions of southern Europe. At one of these observatories, a coherent set of experimental systems has been established to monitor on a long-term basis ozone, aerosols, minor constituents, and temperature vertical distributions in the troposphere and stratosphere. Such techniques include several lidar systems, balloon-borne sondes and ultraviolet visible spectrometry. Lidar measurements of stratospheric aerosols are performed on a routine basis, since 1980. These include the vertical distribution of the extinction and backscattering coefficients from the tropopause. Recently, measurements performed following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, have allowed researchers to follow the time evolution of the aerosol cloud in middle latitude regions.

Megie, G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Natural and anthropogenic perturbations of the stratospheric ozone layer

The paper reviews potential causes for reduction in the ozone abundance. The response of stratospheric ozone to solar activity is discussed. Ozone changes are simulated in relation with the potential development of a fleet of high-speed stratospheric aircraft and the release in the atmosphere of chlorofluorocarbons. The calculations are performed by a two-dimensional chemical-radiative-dynamical model. The importance of heterogeneous chemistry in polar stratospheric clouds and in the Junge layer (sulfate aerosol) is emphasized. The recently reported ozone trend over the last decade is shown to have been largely caused by the simultaneous effects of increasing concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons and heterogeneous chemistry. The possibility for a reduction in stratospheric ozone following a large volcanic eruption such as that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 is discussed.

Brasseur, Guy P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Earth observations on Space Shuttle Flight 43 - It was a dirty world

Attention is given to earth observations made by the crew of Space Shuttle Flight 43, during which atmospheric haze and its various aerosols were investigated. The length-of-record time series from the Space Shuttle Earth Observation Program was used to photograph some of the sites under active investigation. It was found that Lake Chad's northern basin remained dry, and the southern basin showed no appreciable changes in water level. The Okavango Swamp areas in Botswana showed agricultural burning at several sites, and increasing evidence of land use activity in the areas of the swamp that previously had been under natural cover. Consideration is also given to Hurricane Fefa and Tropical Storm Guillermo, the smoke from the Kuwaiti oil fires, Mount Pinatubo, dust storms in the Sahara, biomass burning, South Asian monsoon runoff, land use patterns, landforms and geology, and oceans and coastal features.

Amsbury, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A 4-year climatology of stratospheric ozone from lidar measurements at Table Mountain, 34.4 deg N

Regular measurements of stratospheric ozone concentration profiles have been made at Table Mountain, California, since February 1988. During the period up to the end of December 1991, 435 independent profiles were measured by the differential absorption lidar technique. These long-term results and an evaluation of their quality are presented in this paper. The large number of measurements made allowed the development of a short-term, 4-year, climatology of the ozone concentration profile at this specific location (34.4 deg N, - 117.7 deg W). The effects of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo were not observed in the lidar measurements until August 1991, so that the results presented here can essentially be considered as the pre-Pinatubo climatology.

Mcdermid, I. S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Ozone depletion at northern and southern latitudes derived from January 1979 to December 1991 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer data

An extended version of the Nimbus 7/TOMS ozone data set from the period January 1, 1979 to December 31, 1991 is presented. It is shown that the ozone-trend data indicate that regions of enhanced ozone depletion rates have formed at middle and high latitudes during recent years. The seasonal dependence and geographical extent of the enhanced ozone-depletion rates for the Northern and Southern hemispheres are examined. The variability of the long-term ozone trend determination is discussed via consideration of the differences among 11-, 12-, and 13-yr trend calculations. The effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption and other volcanic eruptions on the TOMS equatorial zonal average ozone measurements, and its influence on long-term trend determinations are discussed. On the basis of a determination of the aerosol phase function using TOMS data, the effect of stratospheric aerosols on determination of ozone amounts from TOMS are shown to be less than 1 percent.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Coherent launch-site atmospheric wind sounder - Theory and experiment

The coherent launch-site atmospheric wind sounder (CLAWS) is a lidar atmospheric wind sensor designed to measure the winds above space launch facilities to an altitude of 20 km. In our development studies, lidar sensor requirements are defined, a system to meet those requirements is defined and built, and the concept is evaluated, with recommendations for the most feasible and cost-effective lidar system for use as an input to a guidance and control system for missile or spacecraft launches. The ability of CLAWS to meet NASA goals for increased safety and launch/mission flexibility is evaluated in a field test program at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in which we investigate maximum detection range, refractive turbulence, and aerosol backscattering efficiency. The Nd:YAG coherent lidar operating at 1.06 micron with 1-J energy per pulse is able to make real-time measurements of the 3D wind field at KSC to an altitude of 26 km, in good agreement with our performance simulations. It also shows the height and thickness of the volcanic layer caused by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines.

Hawley, James G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The seasonal evolution of reactive chlorine in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere

In situ measurements of chlorine monoxide (ClO) at mid- and high northern latitudes are reported for the period October 1991 to February 1992. As early as mid-December and throughout the winter, significant enhancements of this ozone-destroying radical were observed within the polar vortex shortly after temperatures dropped below 195 K. Decreases in ClO observed in February were consistent with the rapid formation of chlorine nitrate (ClONO2) by recombination of ClO with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) released photochemically from nitric acid (HNO3). Outside the vortex, ClO abundances were higher than in previous years as a result of NO(x) suppression by heterogeneous reactions on sulfate aerosols enhanced by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo.

Toohey, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Heterogeneous reaction probabilities, solubilities, and the physical state of cold volcanic aerosols

On 19 January 1992, heterogeneous loss of HNO3, ClNO3, and HCl was observed in part of the Mount Pinatubo volcanic cloud that had cooled as a result of forced ascent. Portions of the volcanic cloud froze near 191 kelvin. The reaction probability of ClNO3 and the solubility of HNO3 were close to laboratory measurements on liquid sulfuric acid. The magnitude of the observed loss of HCl suggests that it underwent a heterogeneous reaction. Such reactions could lead to substantial loss of HCl on background sulfuric acid particles and so be important for polar ozone loss.

Toon, O.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Ozone and aerosol changes during the 1991-1992 airborne Arctic stratospheric expedition

Stratospheric ozone and aerosol distributions were measured across the wintertime Arctic vortex from January to March 1992 with an airborne lidar system as part of the 1992 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE II). Aerosols from the Mount Pinatubo eruption were found outside and inside the vortex with distinctly different distributions that clearly identified the dynamics of the vortex. Changes in aerosols inside the vortex indicated advection of air from outside to inside the vortex below 16 kilometers. No polar stratospheric clouds were observed and no evidence was found for frozen volcanic aerosols inside the vortex. Between January and March, ozone depletion was observed inside the vortex from 14 to 20 kilometers with a maximum average loss of about 23 percent near 18 kilometers.

Browell, Edward V.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Global geologic applications of the Space Shuttle earth observations photography database

The advantages of the astronaut photography during Space Shuttle missions are briefly examined, and the scope and applications of the Space Shuttle earth observations photography database are discussed. The global and multidisciplinary nature of the data base is illustrated by several examples of geologic applications. These include the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Philippine Islands), heat flow and ice cover on Lake Baikal in Siberia (Russia), and windblown dust in South America. It is noted that hand-held photography from the U.S. Space Shuttle provides unique remotely-sensed data for geologic applications because of the combination of varying perspectives, look angles, and illumination, and changing resolution resulting from different lenses and altitudes.

Lulla, Kamlesh↗
NASA NTRS1994

Counting Condensation Nuclei in the Antarctic Ozone Mission

The work done on this grant primarily concerns the measurement of aerosol in the stratosphere from NASA ER-2 aircraft in studies of stratospheric ozone depletion in the northern and southern hemispheres. The ER-2 Condensation Nucleus Counter (CNC) measures the number concentration of particles in the diameter range of approximately 0.01 to 1 micron. The Passive Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer measures size distributions in the 0.17 to 3 micron diameter range. This instrument was upgraded during this grant period to a Focused Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer (FCAS). This upgrade permitted the instrument to measure particles as small as 0.05 micron in diameter. The inlet for the PCAS and FCAS was modified and characterized under this grant so that the modifications to the aerosol due to anisokinetic sampling and heating upon sampling and in transport to the measurement location were accounted for in the data analysis. These measurements permitted observations of particle production in the southern hemisphere winter polar vortex and observation of the impact of denitrification on the number concentration of the aerosol in the denitrified air. In the northern polar vortex, the measurements provided a characterization of the sulfate aerosol. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the measurements permitted an accurate characterization of the sulfate aerosol enhancements resulting from the eruption. This led to studies of the impact of heterogeneous chemistry on the partitioning of the partitioning of the reactive nitrogen species and the partitioning of the chlorine reservoir.

Wilson, James Charles↗