Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Monte-Carlo methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Variable Depth Bragg Peak Method for Single Event Effects Testing

Traditionally, accelerator SEE testing is accomplished by removing the tops of packages so that the IC chips are accessible to heavy ions. However, ICs in some advanced packages cannot be de-lidded so a different approach is used that involves grinding and/or chemically etching away part of the package and the chip from the back side. The parts are then tested from the back side with ions having sufficient range to reach the sensitive volume. More recently, the entire silicon substrate in an SOI/SRAM was removed, making it possible to use low-energy ions with shorter ranges. Where removal of part of the package is not possible, facilities at Michigan State, NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, GANIL (France) and GSI (Germany) offer high-energy heavy ions with long ranges so that the ions can reach the devices' sensitive volumes without much change in the LET. Unfortunately, a run will typically involve only one ion species having a single energy and LET due to the long time it takes to tune a new energy. The Variable Depth Bragg Peak (VDBP) method is similar to the above method in that it involves the use of high-energy heavy ions that are able to pass through the packaging material and reach the device, obviating the need to remove the package. However, the method provides a broad range of LETs from a single ion by inserting degraders in the beam that modify the ion energy and, therefore, the LET. The crux of the method involves establishing a fiduciary point for degrader thickness, i.e., where the Bragg peak is located precisely at the sensitive volume in the device, for which the measured SEU cross-section and the ion LET are both also maxima and can be calculated using a Monte-Carlo program, TRIM. Once the fiduciary point has been established, calibrated high density polyethylene (HDPE) degraders are inserted into or removed from the beam to vary the ion LET at the device in a known manner. After each change of degrader thickness, the SEU cross-section is measured and the corresponding LET calculated from the change in degrader thickness. That information is used to generate a plot of cross-section as a function of ion LET. The advantages of this approach are that the part does not have to be de-lidded and a broad range of LETs is available from a single heavy ion without having to go to non-normal angles of incidence to change the "effective" LET. As we will show, it is possible to obtain an entire curve of cross-section versus LET using just two or three ions. Fig. 1 shows curves of cross-section vs LET for a Freescale 4 Mbit SOI/SRAM measured at the 88" Cyclotron at Berkeley and at NSRL. The open symbols are the data obtained from Berkeley for top-side and back-side irradiation. The solid data points are for the data obtained at NSRL using a device for which the package was intact. The data are for Iron and Gold and cover a range of LETs from 4 MeV.cm2/mg to 84 MeV.cm2/mg. The agreement between the data obtained from Berkeley and from NSRL is excellent, demonstrating that the VDBP method is capable of providing accurate values of cross-section versus LET, at least for the 4 Mbit SRAM. Details of the technique will be included in the final presentation.

Buchner, S.↗

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Translating expert system rules into Ada code with validation and verification

The purpose of this ongoing research and development program is to develop software tools which enable the rapid development, upgrading, and maintenance of embedded real-time artificial intelligence systems. The goals of this phase of the research were to investigate the feasibility of developing software tools which automatically translate expert system rules into Ada code and develop methods for performing validation and verification testing of the resultant expert system. A prototype system was demonstrated which automatically translated rules from an Air Force expert system was demonstrated which detected errors in the execution of the resultant system. The method and prototype tools for converting AI representations into Ada code by converting the rules into Ada code modules and then linking them with an Activation Framework based run-time environment to form an executable load module are discussed. This method is based upon the use of Evidence Flow Graphs which are a data flow representation for intelligent systems. The development of prototype test generation and evaluation software which was used to test the resultant code is discussed. This testing was performed automatically using Monte-Carlo techniques based upon a constraint based description of the required performance for the system.

Becker, Lee↗

Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order of 100-200 days. Approaches to reduce these unceI1ainties and mitigate risks are described.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

Software for Processing Flight and Simulated Data of the ATIC Experiment

ATIC (Advanced Thin Ionization Calorimeter) is a balloon borne experiment designed to measure the cosmic ray composition for elements from hydrogen to iron and their energy spectra from approx.50 GeV to near 100 TeV. It consists of a Si-matrix detector to determine the charge of a CR particle, a scintillator hodoscope for tracking, carbon interaction targets and a fully active BGO calorimeter. ATIC had its first flight from McMurdo, Antarctica from 28/12/2000 to 13/01/2001. The ATIC flight collected approximately 25 million events. A C++-class library for building different programs for processing flight and simulated data of the ATIC balloon experiment is described. This library is compatible with the ROOT-system and includes classes and methods for solving a number of problems as the following: Reading data files in different formats (raw-data format, ROOT-format, ASCII-format, different formats for simulated data); Transferring all these formats to the only inner format of the library; Reconstruction of trajectories of primary particles with BGO calorimeter only. The Monte-Carlo simulations with GEANT code were used to obtain the basic tables for computing error corridors and chi(sup 2)-values for the trajectories. Obtaining error corridors for searching for signal of primary particle in the Si-matrix; Searching for hit of primary particle in the Si-matrix with using of error corridor and other criteria (chi(sup 2)-values, agreement between signals in Si-matrix and in the upper layer of scintillator and others); Determination of charge of primary particle; Determination of energy deposit in BGO calorimeter.

Panov, A. D.↗

Methodolgy For Evaluation Of Technology Impacts In Space Electric Power Systems

The Analysis and Management branch of the Power and Propulsion Office at NASA Glenn Research Center is responsible for performing complex analyses of the space power and In-Space propulsion products developed by GRC. This work quantifies the benefits of the advanced technologies to support on-going advocacy efforts. The Power and Propulsion Office is committed to understanding how the advancement in space technologies could benefit future NASA missions. They support many diverse projects and missions throughout NASA as well as industry and academia. The area of work that we are concentrating on is space technology investment strategies. Our goal is to develop a Monte-Carlo based tool to investigate technology impacts in space electric power systems. The framework is being developed at this stage, which will be used to set up a computer simulation of a space electric power system (EPS). The outcome is expected to be a probabilistic assessment of critical technologies and potential development issues. We are developing methods for integrating existing spreadsheet-based tools into the simulation tool. Also, work is being done on defining interface protocols to enable rapid integration of future tools. Monte Carlo-based simulation programs for statistical modeling of the EPS Model. I decided to learn and evaluate Palisade's @Risk and Risk Optimizer software, and utilize it's capabilities for the Electric Power System (EPS) model. I also looked at similar software packages (JMP, SPSS, Crystal Ball, VenSim, Analytica) available from other suppliers and evaluated them. The second task was to develop the framework for the tool, in which we had to define technology characteristics using weighing factors and probability distributions. Also we had to define the simulation space and add hard and soft constraints to the model. The third task is to incorporate (preliminary) cost factors into the model. A final task is developing a cross-platform solution of this framework.

Holda, Julie↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

Unsupervised Detection of Planetary Craters by a Marked Point Process

With the launch of several planetary missions in the last decade, a large amount of planetary images is being acquired. Preferably, automatic and robust processing techniques need to be used for data analysis because of the huge amount of the acquired data. Here, the aim is to achieve a robust and general methodology for crater detection. A novel technique based on a marked point process is proposed. First, the contours in the image are extracted. The object boundaries are modeled as a configuration of an unknown number of random ellipses, i.e., the contour image is considered as a realization of a marked point process. Then, an energy function is defined, containing both an a priori energy and a likelihood term. The global minimum of this function is estimated by using reversible jump Monte-Carlo Markov chain dynamics and a simulated annealing scheme. The main idea behind marked point processes is to model objects within a stochastic framework: Marked point processes represent a very promising current approach in the stochastic image modeling and provide a powerful and methodologically rigorous framework to efficiently map and detect objects and structures in an image with an excellent robustness to noise. The proposed method for crater detection has several feasible applications. One such application area is image registration by matching the extracted features.

Troglio, G.↗

Performance evaluation of integrated guidance and navigation systems

The method of linear covariance analysis is applied to the study of an aerospace vehicle integrated guidance-and-navigation system. This requires that the rms trajectory deviations of the vehicle be computed along with the rms errors of the navigation system. The technique is used to examine the performance of the shuttle orbiter vehicle's guidance-and-navigation system during the terminal phase of the landing. Essentially the same rms trajectory deviations were obtained from a single covariance run as from a 30-sample Monte-Carlo run set. Of particular interest in the study was the result that rms trajectory deviations for the integrated-system were generally significantly larger than the rms navigation errors.

Tao, Y. C.↗

Mars Exploration Rover Terminal Descent Mission Modeling and Simulation

Because of NASA's added reliance on simulation for successful interplanetary missions, the MER mission has developed a detailed EDL trajectory modeling and simulation. This paper summarizes how the MER EDL sequence of events are modeled, verification of the methods used, and the inputs. This simulation is built upon a multibody parachute trajectory simulation tool that has been developed in POST I1 that accurately simulates the trajectory of multiple vehicles in flight with interacting forces. In this model the parachute and the suspended bodies are treated as 6 Degree-of-Freedom (6 DOF) bodies. The terminal descent phase of the mission consists of several Entry, Descent, Landing (EDL) events, such as parachute deployment, heatshield separation, deployment of the lander from the backshell, deployment of the airbags, RAD firings, TIRS firings, etc. For an accurate, reliable simulation these events need to be modeled seamlessly and robustly so that the simulations will remain numerically stable during Monte-Carlo simulations. This paper also summarizes how the events have been modeled, the numerical issues, and modeling challenges.

Raiszadeh, Behzad↗

An Empirical Comparison between Two Recursive Filters for Attitude and Rate Estimation of Spinning Spacecraft

The advantages of inducing a constant spin rate on a spacecraft are well known. A variety of science missions have used this technique as a relatively low cost method for conducting science. Starting in the late 1970s, NASA focused on building spacecraft using 3-axis control as opposed to the single-axis control mentioned above. Considerable effort was expended toward sensor and control system development, as well as the development of ground systems to independently process the data. As a result, spinning spacecraft development and their resulting ground system development stagnated. In the 1990s, shrinking budgets made spinning spacecraft an attractive option for science. The attitude requirements for recent spinning spacecraft are more stringent and the ground systems must be enhanced in order to provide the necessary attitude estimation accuracy. Since spinning spacecraft (SC) typically have no gyroscopes for measuring attitude rate, any new estimator would need to rely on the spacecraft dynamics equations. One estimation technique that utilized the SC dynamics and has been used successfully in 3-axis gyro-less spacecraft ground systems is the pseudo-linear Kalman filter algorithm. Consequently, a pseudo-linear Kalman filter has been developed which directly estimates the spacecraft attitude quaternion and rate for a spinning SC. Recently, a filter using Markley variables was developed specifically for spinning spacecraft. The pseudo-linear Kalman filter has the advantage of being easier to implement but estimates the quaternion which, due to the relatively high spinning rate, changes rapidly for a spinning spacecraft. The Markley variable filter is more complicated to implement but, being based on the SC angular momentum, estimates parameters which vary slowly. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of these two filters. Monte-Carlo simulation runs will be presented which demonstrate the advantages and disadvantages of both filters.

Harman, Richard R.↗

Monte-Carlo modeling of polar wind photoelectron distributions with anomalous heat flux

In situ measurements above the polar cap by the DE satellites show asymmetric field-aligned electron velocity distributions in the photoelectron energy range 5-60 eV. The formation of these anisotropic distributions is described by a collisional kinetic equation that includes the effects of Coulomb collisions (via a Fokker-Planck operator), those of a parallel electric field, and the magnetic mirror effects of the geomagnetic field. This equation is solved using a Monte Carlo simulation method. The simulation illustrates the formation of the portion of the observed electron distributions originating in the ionosphere and makes it possible to evaluate the significance of the suprathermal electrons at higher altitude. Both observations and calculations indicate that these electrons possess an energy flux which, by its effect on the polar-wind electric field, may influence the dynamics of the polar-wind outflow.

Yasseen, F.↗

Monte-Carlo calculations of Ge detector escape-peak efficiencies

The authors present calculated first and second escape peak efficiencies for a variety of n-type coaxial Ge detectors using the Monte Carlo method. The results are given for right-circular cylindrical geometries of size ranging from 3-cm diameter x 3-cm thick to 8-cm diameter x 8-cm thick. For completeness, the intrinsic interaction and photopeak efficiencies for energies ranging from 20 keV to 20 MeV are listed. The calculations have been tested against experimental measurement and found to be in agreement to within the quoted errors (typically 10 percent). It is found that the ratio of the second escape peak efficiency to the first escape peak efficiency, R, is approximately independent of energy for small detector volumes but has a weak power law energy dependence for large volumes. It is shown that R also varies as an inverse power law of the active volume.

Owens, Alan↗

Monte Carlo predictions of DNA fragment-size distributions for large sizes after HZE particle irradiation

DSBs (double-strand breaks) produced by densely ionizing space radiation are not located randomly in the genome: recent data indicate DSB clustering along chromosomes. DSB clustering at large scales, from >100 Mbp down to approximately 2 kbp, is modeled using a Monte-Carlo algorithm. A random-walk model of chromatin is combined with a track model, that predicts the radial distribution of energy from an ion, and the RLC (randomly-located-clusters) formalism, in software called DNAbreak. This model generalizes the random-breakage model, whose broken-stick fragment-size distribution is applicable to low-LET radiation. DSB induction due to track interaction with the DNA volume depends on the radiation quality parameter Q. This dose-independent parameter depends only weakly on LET. Multi-track, high-dose effects depend on the cluster intensity parameter lambda, proportional to fluence as defined by the RLC formalism. After lambda is determined by a numerical experiment, the model reduces to one adjustable parameter Q. The best numerical fits to the experimental data, determining Q, are obtained. The knowledge of lambda and Q allows us to give biophysically based extrapolations of high-dose DNA fragment-size data to low doses or to high LETs.

NASA Center JSC↗