Monte Carlo model of the highly anisotropic solar proton event of 20 April 1971
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Preliminary work in the investigation of electron injection and acceleration at parallel shocks is presented. A simple model of electron heating that is derived from a unified shock model which includes the effects of an electrostatic potential jump is described. The unified shock model provides a kinetic description of the injection and acceleration of ions and a fluid description of electron heating at high Mach number, supercritical, and parallel shocks.
In order to understand the global structure, dynamics, and physical and chemical processes occurring in the upper atmospheres, exospheres, and ionospheres of the Earth, the other planets, comets and planetary satellites and their interactions with their outer particles and fields environs, it is often necessary to address the fundamentally non-equilibrium aspects of the physical environment. These are regions where complex chemistry, energetics, and electromagnetic field influences are important. Traditional approaches are based largely on hydrodynamic or magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) formulations and are very important and highly useful. However, these methods often have limitations in rarefied physical regimes where the molecular collision rates and ion gyrofrequencies are small and where interactions with ionospheres and upper neutral atmospheres are important. At the University of Michigan we have an established base of experience and expertise in numerical simulations based on particle codes which address these physical regimes. The Principal Investigator, Dr. Michael Combi, has over 20 years of experience in the development of particle-kinetic and hybrid kinetichydrodynamics models and their direct use in data analysis. He has also worked in ground-based and space-based remote observational work and on spacecraft instrument teams. His research has involved studies of cometary atmospheres and ionospheres and their interaction with the solar wind, the neutral gas clouds escaping from Jupiter s moon Io, the interaction of the atmospheres/ionospheres of Io and Europa with Jupiter s corotating magnetosphere, as well as Earth s ionosphere. This report describes our progress during the year. The contained in section 2 of this report will serve as the basis of a paper describing the method and its application to the cometary coma that will be continued under a research and analysis grant that supports various applications of theoretical comet models to understanding the inner comae of comets (grant NAGS- 13239 from the Planetary Atmospheres program).
The direct ionization Linear Energy Transfer (LET) for 200 MeV protons in silicon is much smaller than that for higher charged particles since LET increases as the square of the ion charge. However, occasionally the proton interacts with the silicon nuclei and produces a shower of fragments and a recoiling nucleus. When this happens, the LET produced is much greater than the direct ionization LET. Testing the single event effect susceptibility of components using energetic (200 MeV) protons is often the only viable option for system level testing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) avionics that have not been designed for space environments. However, the question of how a system tested with protons will perform in a heavy ion environment arises. Here the concern is not only with prediction of on-orbit upset rate, but also about possibility of on-orbit failures that were not observed during proton testing.
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The purpose of this paper is discuss the concept of fractal dimension; multifractal statistics as an extension of this; the use of simple multifractal statistics (power spectrum, structure function) to characterize cloud liquid water data; and to understand the use of multifractal cloud liquid water models based on real data as input to Monte Carlo radiation models of shortwave radiation transfer in 3D clouds, and the consequences of this in two areas: the design of aircraft field programs to measure cloud absorptance; and the explanation of the famous "Landsat scale break" in measured radiance.
A Monte Carlo soil reflectance model has been developed to study the effect of macroscopic surface irregularities larger than the wavelength of incident flux. The model treats incoherent multiple scattering from Lambertian facets distributed on a periodic surface. Resulting bidirectional reflectance distribution functions are non-Lambertian and compare well with experimental trends reported in the literature. Examples showing the coupling of the Monte Carlo soil model to an adding bidirectional canopy of reflectance model are also given.
A new molecular model, called the generalized hard-sphere, or GHS model, is introduced. This model contains, as a special case, the variable hard-sphere model of Bird (1981) and is capable of reproducing all of the analytic viscosity coefficients available in the literature that are derived for a variety of interaction potentials incorporating attraction and repulsion. In addition, a new procedure for determining interaction potentials in a gas mixture is outlined. Expressions needed for implementing the new model in the direct simulation Monte Carlo methods are derived. This development makes it possible to employ interaction models that have the same level of complexity as used in Navier-Stokes calculations.
A Monte Carlo computational model has been developed which simulates atomic oxygen attack of protected polymers at defect sites in the protective coatings. The parameters defining how atomic oxygen interacts with polymers and protective coatings as well as the scattering processes which occur have been optimized to replicate experimental results observed from protected polyimide Kapton on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) mission. Computational prediction of atomic oxygen undercutting at defect sites in protective coatings for various arrival energies was investigated. The atomic oxygen undercutting energy dependence predictions enable one to predict mass loss that would occur in low Earth orbit, based on lower energy ground laboratory atomic oxygen beam systems. Results of computational model prediction of undercut cavity size as a function of energy and defect size will be presented to provide insight into expected in-space mass loss of protected polymers with protective coating defects based on lower energy ground laboratory testing.
Computational modeling of the erosion of polymers caused by atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit (LEO) is useful for determining areas of concern for spacecraft environment durability. Successful modeling requires that the characteristics of the environment such as atomic oxygen energy distribution, flux, and angular distribution be properly represented in the model. Thus whether the atomic oxygen is arriving normal to or inclined to a surface and whether it arrives in a consistent direction or is sweeping across the surface such as in the case of polymeric solar array blankets is important to determine durability. When atomic oxygen impacts a polymer surface it can react removing a certain volume per incident atom (called the erosion yield), recombine, or be ejected as an active oxygen atom to potentially either react with other polymer atoms or exit into space. Scattered atoms can also have a lower energy as a result of partial or total thermal accommodation. Many solutions to polymer durability in LEO involve protective thin films of metal oxides such as SiO2 to prevent atomic oxygen erosion. Such protective films also have their own interaction characteristics. A Monte Carlo computational model has been developed which takes into account the various types of atomic oxygen arrival and how it reacts with a representative polymer (polyimide Kapton H) and how it reacts at defect sites in an oxide protective coating, such as SiO2 on that polymer. Although this model was initially intended to determine atomic oxygen erosion behavior at defect sites for the International Space Station solar arrays, it has been used to predict atomic oxygen erosion or oxidation behavior on many other spacecraft components including erosion of polymeric joints, durability of solar array blanket box covers, and scattering of atomic oxygen into telescopes and microwave cavities where oxidation of critical component surfaces can take place. The computational model is a two dimensional model which has the capability to tune the interactions of how the atomic oxygen reacts, scatters, or recombines on polymer or nonreactive surfaces. In addition to the specification of atomic oxygen arrival details, a total of 15 atomic oxygen interaction parameters have been identified as necessary to properly simulate observed interactions and resulting polymer erosion that have been observed in LEO. The tuning of the Monte Carlo model has been accomplished by adjusting interaction parameters so the erosion patterns produced by the model match those from several actual LEO space experiments. Surface texturing in LEO can also be predicted by the model. Such comparison of space tests with ground laboratory experiments have enabled confidence in ground laboratory lifetime prediction of protected polymers. Results of Monte Carlo tuning, examples of surface texturing and undercutting erosion prediction, and several examples of how the model can be used to predict other LEO and Mars orbital space results are presented.
Computational modeling of the erosion of polymers caused by atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit (LEO) is useful for determining areas of concern for spacecraft environment durability. Successful modeling requires that the characteristics of the environment such as atomic oxygen energy distribution, flux, and angular distribution be properly represented in the model. Thus whether the atomic oxygen is arriving normal to or inclined to a surface and whether it arrives in a consistent direction or is sweeping across the surface such as in the case of polymeric solar array blankets is important to determine durability. When atomic oxygen impacts a polymer surface it can react removing a certain volume per incident atom (called the erosion yield), recombine, or be ejected as an active oxygen atom to potentially either react with other polymer atoms or exit into space. Scattered atoms can also have a lower energy as a result of partial or total thermal accommodation. Many solutions to polymer durability in LEO involve protective thin films of metal oxides such as SiO2 to prevent atomic oxygen erosion. Such protective films also have their own interaction characteristics. A Monte Carlo computational model has been developed which takes into account the various types of atomic oxygen arrival and how it reacts with a representative polymer (polyimide Kapton H) and how it reacts at defect sites in an oxide protective coating, such as SiO2 on that polymer. Although this model was initially intended to determine atomic oxygen erosion behavior at defect sites for the International Space Station solar arrays, it has been used to predict atomic oxygen erosion or oxidation behavior on many other spacecraft components including erosion of polymeric joints, durability of solar array blanket box covers, and scattering of atomic oxygen into telescopes and microwave cavities where oxidation of critical component surfaces can take place. The computational model is a two dimensional model which has the capability to tune the interactions of how the atomic oxygen reacts, scatters, or recombines on polymer or nonreactive surfaces. In addition to the specification of atomic oxygen arrival details, a total of 15 atomic oxygen interaction parameters have been identified as necessary to properly simulate observed interactions and resulting polymer erosion that have been observed in LEO. The tuning of the Monte Carlo model has been accomplished by adjusting interaction parameters so the erosion patterns produced by the model match those from several actual LEO space experiments. Surface texturing in LEO can also be predicted by the model. Such comparison of space tests with ground laboratory experiments have enabled confidence in ground laboratory lifetime prediction of protected polymers. Results of Monte Carlo tuning, examples of surface texturing and undercutting erosion prediction, and several examples of how the model can be used to predict other LEO and Mars orbital space results are presented.
The paper discusses the development of a concise stratospheric model which uses iteration to obtain coupling between interacting species. The one-dimensional, steady-state, diurnally-averaged model generates diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks for species odd oxygen, H2O, H2, CO, N2O, odd nitrogen, CH4, CH3Cl, CCl4, CF2Cl2, CFCl3, and odd chlorine. The model evaluates steady-state perturbations caused by injections of chlorine and NO(x) and may be used to predict ozone depletion. The model is used in a Monte Carlo study of the propagation of reaction-rate imprecisions by calculating an ozone perturbation caused by the addition of chlorine. Since the model is sensitive to only 10 of the more than 50 reaction rates considered, only about 1000 Monte Carlo cases are required to span the space of possible results.
SHDOM is a general purpose, publicly available, three-dimensional atmospheric radiative transfer model. SHDOM is an explicit method, which means it solves for the whole radiation field, as distinct from Monte Carlo methods which solve for particular radiative outputs. SHDOM is particularly well suited for remote sensing applications, where it can compute outgoing radiances at many angles from a cloud field at virtually no extra cost. SHDOM is not appropriate for calculating domain average quantities for which Monte Carlo methods excel. The I3RC intercomparison offers an opportunity to explore the pros and cons of SHDOM and Monte Carlo models on some real world inhomogeneous cloud fields. Specifically, we wish to determine the computer resources required to achieve a particular accuracy for a certain number of outputs using SHDOM and Monte Carlo models. This will help guide modelers on the appropriate choice of SHDOM or Monte Carlo for their applications. To emphasize the importance of this accuracy versus CPU time tradeoff, we are submitting two SHDOM entries (low and high resolution) in the I3RC.
Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.