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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fast and Precise Trajectory Simulation for Entry, Descent, and Landing Using A Multi-Model Monte Carlo Approach

Predicting landing radius and other quantities of interest (QoI) for entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications requires a viable uncertainty propagation method for quantifying the impact of uncertainties in wind pattern variations, atmospheric uncertainties, etc. While standard MC simulation is the defacto standard for providing robust and unbiased predictions,it is often infeasible for expensive, high-fidelity EDL models. Low-fidelity models are commonly constructed to replace the high-fidelity model in MC simulation for computational speedup,but at the expense of accuracy and unbiasedness. Emerging multi-model MC methods are bridging this gap by combining predictions from two or more models of varying fidelity and computational cost for efficient and unbiased uncertainty propagation. This work explores the use of multi-model MC for increasing the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. It is shown that combining a high-fidelity EDL model with low-fidelity models (e.g,data-driven, reduced physics) yields substantial computational speedup versus standard MCwith only the high-fidelity model. Moreover, the unbiasedness of multi-model MC predictions is highlighted by showing increased accuracy versus an approach that leverages a low-fidelity surrogate model alone.

James E. Warner↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Monte-Carlo Model for the Formation of Radiation-induced Chromosomal Aberrations

Purpose: To simulate radiation-induced chromosome aberrations in mammalian cells (e.g., rings, translocations, and dicentrics) and to calculate their frequency distributions following exposure to DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) produced by high-LET ions. Methods: The interphase genome was assumed to be comprised of a collection of 2 kbp rigid-block monomers following the random-walk geometry. Additional details for the modeling of chromosomal structure, such as chromosomal domains and chromosomal loops, were included. A radial energy profile for heavy ion tracks was used to simulate the high-LET pattern of induced DSBs. The induced DSB pattern depended on the ion charge and kinetic energy, but always corresponded to the DSB yield of 25 DSBs/cell/Gy. The sum of all energy contributions from Poisson-distributed particle tracks was taken to account for all possible one-track and multi-track effects. The relevant output of the model was DNA fragments produced by DSBs. The DSBs, or breakpoints, were defined by (x, y, z, l) positions, where x, y, z were the Euclidian coordinates of a DSB, and where l was the relative position along the genome. Results: The code was used to carry out Monte Carlo simulations for DSB rejoinings at low doses. The resulting fragments were analyzed to estimate the frequencies of specific types of chromosomal aberrations. Histograms for relative frequencies of chromosomal aberrations and P.D.F.s (probability density functions) of a given aberration type were produced. The relative frequency of dicentrics to rings was compared to empirical data to calibrate rejoining probabilities. Of particular interest was the predicted distribution of ring sizes, irrespective of their frequencies relative to other aberrations. Simulated ring sizes were . 4 kbp, which are far too small to be observed experimentally (i.e., by microscopy) but which, nevertheless, are conjectured to exist. Other aberrations, for example, inversions, translocations, as well as multi-centrics were also recorded. Conclusion: High-LET DNA damage affects the frequencies of chromosomal aberrations. The ratio of rings to dicentrics is correct for the genomic size cut-offs corresponding to available experimental data. The present work predicts a relative abundance of small rings following irradiation by heavy ions.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Effects of Surface Roughness on the NEAR XRS Elemental Results: Monte-Carlo Modeling

The objective of the NEAR-Shoemaker X-ray Gamma-Ray Spec1roscopy ("XGRS") investigation was to determine the elemental composition of the near-Earth asteroid 433 Eros. The X-ray Spectrometer (XRS) system measured the characteristic fluorescence of six major elements (Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Fe) in the 1-10 keV energy range excited by the interaction of solar X-rays with the upper 100 microns of the surface of 433 Eros. Various investigators, using both laboratory experiments and computer simulations have established that X-ray fluorescent line ratios can be influenced by small-scale surface roughness at high incidence or emission angles. The effect on the line ratio is specific to the geometry, excitation spectrum, and composition involved, In general, however, the effect is only substantial for ratios of lines with a significant energy difference between them: Fe/Si and Ca/Si are much more likely to be affected than AI/Si or Mg/Si. We apply a Monte-Carlo code to the specific geometry and spectrum of a major NEAR XRS solar flare observation, using an H chondrite composition as the substrate. The seventeen most abundant elements were included in the composition model, from oxygen to titanium.

Lin, Lucy F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Simulation Using Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy)

EDL (Entry, Descent and Landing) is the process from a vehicle approaching a surface to landing on it, such as a Mars rover approaching the planet before landing. POST2 (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories 2) is Langley’s primary EDL simulation tool and is used NASA-wide for simulations. POST2 can generate highly accurate results by running a precise, but time consuming, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation hundreds or thousands of times. Though POST2 can produce highly accurate results, it can take unrealistic time spans to generate these results, which has created a need to speed up the simulations. The new NASA software MXMCPy offers various ways to speed up the simulations while getting just as precise results. Instead of running high-precision POST2 simulations many times for traditional MC, MXMCPy can run fewer high-precision POST2 simulations and many less precise POST2 simulations and merge the results. MXMCPy contains 30+ different methods which will each suggest different allocations between model precision levels, which result in results of varying precision based on the POST2 simulation. I created Python and Bash code to automate the 5 steps of MXMCPy’s application to POST2. I also tested the precision of traditional Monte Carlo simulations to MXMCPy aided simulations and found that MXMCPy can achieve substantially more precise solutions at the same computer runtime. I learned Test Driven Development (TDD), a software programming workflow which involves writing computer-automated tests before writing the code which is being tested. These tests are ran every time the code is changed and they can find glitches in the code much quicker than a human can. This programming workflow saved me a lot of time because the automated tests could tell me exactly where the code had stopped working. I plan on using this software development method for future academic and professional software projects. I have greatly enjoyed my work at NASA, so I have been applying to NASA internships and Pathways positions. In addition, I plan on applying what I have learned about Test Driven Development to my computer science courses next semester

James Warner↗
NASA NTRS1987

Electron heating in a Monte Carlo model of a high Mach number, supercritical, collisionless shock

Preliminary work in the investigation of electron injection and acceleration at parallel shocks is presented. A simple model of electron heating that is derived from a unified shock model which includes the effects of an electrostatic potential jump is described. The unified shock model provides a kinetic description of the injection and acceleration of ions and a fluid description of electron heating at high Mach number, supercritical, and parallel shocks.

Ellison, Donald C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Massively Parallel Hybrid Dusty-Gasdynamics and Kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Model for Planetary Applications

In order to understand the global structure, dynamics, and physical and chemical processes occurring in the upper atmospheres, exospheres, and ionospheres of the Earth, the other planets, comets and planetary satellites and their interactions with their outer particles and fields environs, it is often necessary to address the fundamentally non-equilibrium aspects of the physical environment. These are regions where complex chemistry, energetics, and electromagnetic field influences are important. Traditional approaches are based largely on hydrodynamic or magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) formulations and are very important and highly useful. However, these methods often have limitations in rarefied physical regimes where the molecular collision rates and ion gyrofrequencies are small and where interactions with ionospheres and upper neutral atmospheres are important. At the University of Michigan we have an established base of experience and expertise in numerical simulations based on particle codes which address these physical regimes. The Principal Investigator, Dr. Michael Combi, has over 20 years of experience in the development of particle-kinetic and hybrid kinetichydrodynamics models and their direct use in data analysis. He has also worked in ground-based and space-based remote observational work and on spacecraft instrument teams. His research has involved studies of cometary atmospheres and ionospheres and their interaction with the solar wind, the neutral gas clouds escaping from Jupiter s moon Io, the interaction of the atmospheres/ionospheres of Io and Europa with Jupiter s corotating magnetosphere, as well as Earth s ionosphere. This report describes our progress during the year. The contained in section 2 of this report will serve as the basis of a paper describing the method and its application to the cometary coma that will be continued under a research and analysis grant that supports various applications of theoretical comet models to understanding the inner comae of comets (grant NAGS- 13239 from the Planetary Atmospheres program).

Combi, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Monte Carlo Model for LET Spectra of 200 MeV Protons Used for Microelectronic Testing

The direct ionization Linear Energy Transfer (LET) for 200 MeV protons in silicon is much smaller than that for higher charged particles since LET increases as the square of the ion charge. However, occasionally the proton interacts with the silicon nuclei and produces a shower of fragments and a recoiling nucleus. When this happens, the LET produced is much greater than the direct ionization LET. Testing the single event effect susceptibility of components using energetic (200 MeV) protons is often the only viable option for system level testing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) avionics that have not been designed for space environments. However, the question of how a system tested with protons will perform in a heavy ion environment arises. Here the concern is not only with prediction of on-orbit upset rate, but also about possibility of on-orbit failures that were not observed during proton testing.

O'Neill, Patrick M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Concept of Fractal Dimension use of Multifractal Cloud Liquid Models Based on Real Data as Input to Monte Carlo Radiation Models

The purpose of this paper is discuss the concept of fractal dimension; multifractal statistics as an extension of this; the use of simple multifractal statistics (power spectrum, structure function) to characterize cloud liquid water data; and to understand the use of multifractal cloud liquid water models based on real data as input to Monte Carlo radiation models of shortwave radiation transfer in 3D clouds, and the consequences of this in two areas: the design of aircraft field programs to measure cloud absorptance; and the explanation of the famous "Landsat scale break" in measured radiance.

Wiscombe, W.↗