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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require expeditious response for model analyses designed to inform and drive integrated Earth system assessments. To meet this challenge, the Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF), a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of ESMs, was designed and developed. The initial implementation of the REF, constructed to meet the near-term needs of the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track, builds upon four disparate community evaluation and benchmarking tools that are coupled together using the Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC) framework. The REF runs within a containerized workflow for portability and reproducibility and is aimed at generating and organizing diagnostics covering a variety of model variables. The REF leverages well documented observational datasets to provide assessments of model fidelity across a collection of diagnostics. All diagnostics were identified and selected with community involvement and consultation. Operational integration with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) will permit automated execution of the REF for selected diagnostics as soon as model output data are published on ESGF by the originating modeling centers. The REF is designed to be portable across a range of current computational platforms to facilitate use by modeling centers for assessing the evolution of model versions or gauging the relative performance of CMIP simulations before being published on ESGF. When integrated into production simulation workflows, results from the REF provide immediate quantitative feedback that allows model developers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues. After the REF is released to the community, its subsequent development and support will be prioritized by an international consortium of scientists and engineers, enabling a broader impact across Earth science disciplines. For instance, the REF will facilitate improvements to models and will enhance confidence in model projections through process-based selection of models based on their performance with respect to observations. Production of reproducible diagnostics and community-based assessments are key features of the REF. Furthermore, providing interoperability with existing evaluation packages assures that contributions from previous community efforts will be available for use in future model intercomparison projects.

Hoffman, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000158024134)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Production System Scaling Using a High-Fidelity Simulation-Optimization Framework

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers are widely used for hydrogen production, yet few validated, high-fidelity tools can reliably guide scale-up. Using measured performance from a 50-hour hardware-in-the-loop pilot test, a physics-based, plant-level model of a 1.25 MW PEM electrolyzer and its balance-of-plant (BoP) subsystems is developed and validated. The model couples electrochemistry and thermal/flow submodels and is calibrated against pilot test data via a genetic algorithm (GA) workflow. Validation yields a mean absolute percentage error (APE) of 0.43% for cell voltage and stack power. Two scale-out strategies are then benchmarked under a common 7-day wind-and-photovoltaic (PV) profile: (i) linear duplication of 1.25 MW blocks and (ii) shared-BoP architectures. Sharing BoP between stacks reduces BoP energy by 27% at 10 MW and 34% at 100 MW (vs. linear duplication) and improves system specific energy consumption (SEC) to 52.9 and 52.6 kWh/kg, respectively (from 54.0 kWh/kg with linear duplication). Partial-load studies (25-100% set-point) show that cumulative hydrogen production remains nearly constant down to 50% load because all cases use the same weekly renewable-energy input. Below 50%, the power cap limits how much energy can be used within 168 h, which reduces hydrogen output. The model further indicates that the practical operating optimum lies between 50% and 85% load, where efficiency gains begin to appear without significant loss in hydrogen output. Moreover, the efficiency gains at lower loads are offset by reduced production. The validated framework supports scenario-based engineering trade-off studies for large configurations (10-100 MW) and for operating policies under variable renewables.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code

This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of CAD-based Geometry Workflows for Multiphysics Fusion Problems Using OpenMC and MOOSE

Fusion system designs are complex and require intricate and accurate meshes to be properly modeled. In this study, we investigate the use of CAD-based geometry workflows in fusion systems multiphysics problems. A simplified tokamak was introduced and modeled in CAD using a multiphysics coupling of OpenMC Monte Carlo transport and MOOSE heat conduction. The meshed geometry was prepared using direct accelerated geometry Monte Carlo (DAGMC) for particle transport, and a volumetric mesh was also prepared to be used in MOOSE and to tally OpenMC results. Cardinal was used to run OpenMC Monte Carlo particle transport within MOOSE framework. The heat source distribution and tritium production were calculated in OpenMC. The data transfer system was used to transfer heat source and temperature distribution between OpenMC and MOOSE. Two computational studies related to mesh refinement were performed: (1) refining the DAGMC and volumetric meshes used for tallying results and solving heat conduction and (2) only refining the DAGMC particle transport mesh. The refinement of the tally mesh has a much larger effect on the runtime compared to the refinement of the DAGMC particle transport surface mesh.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Broadband impedance modeling and single bunch instabilities estimations of the advanced light source upgrade project

We report the Advanced Light Source Upgrade (ALS-U) is a 4th generation diffraction-limited soft x-ray radiation source, consisting of a new accumulator ring (AR) and a new storage ring (SR). In both rings coupling-impedance driven instabilities need careful evaluation to ensure meeting the machine’s high-performance goals. This paper presents the workflow followed in building the impedance models and the beam-stability analysis based on those models. We follow the commonly accepted approach of separating the resistive-wall and the geometric parts of the impedance; the former is obtained by analytical formulas, the latter by numerical electro-magnetic codes (primarily CST Studio software) with perfectly-conducting boundary conditions. Impedance budgets are established and pseudo-Green functions calculated to be used in beam dynamics studies. We also present various ways to cross-check simulation results for reliable impedance modeling. Finally, the crucial single-bunch instability current thresholds for various operation modes are determined and discussed.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Upper critical solution temperature polymer assemblies via variable temperature liquid phase transmission electron microscopy and liquid resonant soft X-ray scattering

Abstract Here, we study the upper critical solution temperature triggered phase transition of thermally responsive poly(ethylene glycol)- block -poly(ethylene glycol) methyl ether acrylate- co -poly(ethylene glycol) phenyl ether acrylate- block -polystyrene nanoassemblies in isopropanol. To gain mechanistic insight into the organic solution-phase dynamics of the upper critical solution temperature polymer, we leverage variable temperature liquid-cell transmission electron microscopy correlated with variable temperature liquid resonant soft X-ray scattering. Heating above the upper critical solution temperature triggers a reduction in particle size and a morphological transition from a spherical core shell particle with a complex, multiphase core to a micelle with a uniform core and Gaussian polymer chains attached to the surface. These correlated solution phase methods, coupled with mass spectral validation and modeling, provide unique insight into these thermoresponsive materials. Moreover, we detail a generalizable workflow for studying complex, solution-phase nanomaterials via correlative methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Results From GMAO’s JEDI Based Ocean/Sea-ice Data Assimilation System

Preparations for GMAO’s transition to next generation coupled DA framework includes MOM6 for the ocean and CICE6 for sea ice, alongside assembling the data assimilation systems. The coupled DA system will primarily rely on the Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) and involves the use of the Sea-ice Ocean and Coupled Analysis (SOCA) package. The early stages of the work involved developing a coupled, cycling (ocean-only) DA workflow named “Swell”. Some other highlights from this transdisciplinary work: Collaborated with NOAA/EMC to ensure direct comparisons using the same observations and time (July -September 2021) during model development. Conducted in-kind work with the JCSDA to improve various JEDI components. Swell coupled DA framework will be used to assimilate observations from NASA’s PACE and SWOT missions

Dorukhan Ardag↗
DOE OSTI2024

Employing artificial intelligence to steer exascale workflows with colmena

Computational workflows are a common class of application on supercomputers, yet the loosely coupled and heterogeneous nature of workflows often fails to take full advantage of their capabilities. We created Colmena to leverage the massive parallelism of a supercomputer by using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to learn from and adapt a workflow as it executes. Colmena allows scientists to define how their application should respond to events (e.g., task completion) as a series of cooperative agents. In this paper, we describe the design of Colmena, the challenges we overcame while deploying applications on exascale systems, and the science workflows we have enhanced through interweaving AI. The scaling challenges we discuss include developing steering strategies that maximize node utilization, introducing data fabrics that reduce communication overhead of data-intensive tasks, and implementing workflow tasks that cache costly operations between invocations. These innovations coupled with a variety of application patterns accessible through our agent-based steering model have enabled science advances in chemistry, biophysics, and materials science using different types of AI. In conclusion, our vision is that Colmena will spur creative solutions that harness AI across many domains of scientific computing.

Workflows↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the effect of ELM and code-coupling frequencies on plasma and material modeling of dynamic recycling in divertors

Abstract Integrated modeling of plasma-surface interactions provides a comprehensive and self-consistent description of the system, moving the field closer to developing predictive and design capabilities for plasma facing components. One such workflow, including descriptions for the scrape-off-layer plasma, ion-surface interactions and the sub-surface evolution, was previously used to address steady-state scenarios and has recently been extended to incorporate time-dependence and two-way information flow. The new model can address dynamic recycling in transient scenarios, such as the application presented in this paper: the evolution of W samples pre-damaged by helium and exposed to ELMy H-mode plasmas in the DIII-D DiMES. A first set of simulations explored the effect of ELM frequency. This study was discussed in detail in this conference’s proceedings and is summarized here. The 2nd set of simulations, which is the focus of this paper, explores the effect of code-coupling frequency. These simulations include initial SOLPS solutions converged to the inter-ELM state, ion impact energy ( E in ) and angles ( A in ) calculated by hPIC2, and an improved heat transfer description in Xolotl. The model predicts increases in particle fluxes and decreases in heat fluxes by 10%–20% with the coupling time-step. Compared with the first set of simulations, the less shallow impact angle leads to smaller reflection rates and significant D implantation. The higher fraction of implanted flux (and deeper), in particular during ELMs, increases the accumulated D content in the W near-surface region. Future expansion of the workflow includes coupling to hPIC2 and GITR to ensure accurate descriptions of E in and A in , and W impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Points to Planes: A Workflow for Converting Three‐Dimensional Point Cloud Data Into Discrete Fracture Network Flow and Transport Models

We present the Point cLoud Algorithm for NEtwork Extraction of Discrete Fracture Networks (PLANE-DFN), a point cloud–based algorithm for automatic fracture network extraction designed to support discrete fracture network (DFN) modeling workflows. PLANE-DFN segments three-dimensional fracture planes from raw point cloud data using RANdom SAmple Consensus coupled with statistical outlier removal and density-based clustering to isolate individual fracture features. Each candidate plane is constrained against site-specific structural constraints based on strike and dip. After segmentation, each fracture is converted into a 2-D convex polygon suitable for meshing and simulation. The PLANE-DFN algorithm is validated by comparing geometric and flow and transport data against data from dfnWorks simulations with ensembles of plane-fit networks. We find that the flow and transport in plane-fit networks are comparable to dfnWorks-generated networks when realistic network geometry is maintained. The PLANE-DFN algorithm provides an automated and streamlined workflow to transform point clouds of data into DFN network geometry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative interpretation of time-lapse seismic data at Farnsworth field unit: Rock physics modeling, and calibration of simulated time-lapse velocity responses

Here, this study investigates the contribution of fluid saturation variation to the time-lapse velocity response by performing fluid substitution modeling. The methodology is exemplified by the time-lapse seismic monitoring of carbon dioxide at Farnsworth field unit (FWU). In order to evaluate the fluid distribution in a matured oil reservoir, the Southwest Regional Partnership (SWP) acquired multiple vertical seismic profile (VSP) surveys at different times during the CO 2 –water alternatinggas (WAG) injection period. In this work, we present a thorough methodology for computing the elastic response of the saturated rock for different fluid saturations using a site-specific petro-elastic model (PEM). The output from the PEM was combined with results from a fluid compositional model to compute the seismic velocities at times corresponding to each VSP survey. To produce a calibrated simulated response, the measured time-lapse seismic velocities were integrated into the numerical simulation model. The mismatches between the predicted and measured time-lapse velocities were minimized through an iterative calibration process using a trained artificial neural network proxy (ANN) coupled with a particle swarm optimizer (PSO). Our study indicates that the hybrid optimization workflow can effectively perform the history matching. With an accurate prediction of the hydrodynamic properties, the migration of CO 2 within the subsurface was modeled by predicting the spatial velocity distribution for a radius of 305 m around the injection well. The technology demonstrated and the expertise gained from this study can guide similar CO 2 -WAG projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the impact of substrate-level enzyme regulations limiting ethanol titer in Clostridium thermocellum using a core kinetic model

Clostridium thermocellum is a promising candidate for consolidated bioprocessing because it can directly ferment cellulose to ethanol. Despite significant efforts, achieved yields and titers fall below industrially relevant targets. This implies that there still exist unknown enzymatic, regulatory, and/or possibly thermodynamic bottlenecks that can throttle back metabolic flow. By (i) elucidating internal metabolic fluxes in wild-type C. thermocellum grown on cellobiose via 13 C-metabolic flux analysis ( 13 C-MFA), (ii) parameterizing a core kinetic model, and (iii) subsequently deploying an ensemble-docking workflow for discovering substrate-level regulations, this paper aims to reveal some of these factors and expand our knowledgebase governing C. thermocellum metabolism. Generated 13 C labeling data were used with 13 C-MFA to generate a wild-type flux distribution for the metabolic network. Notably, flux elucidation through MFA alluded to serine generation via the mercaptopyruvate pathway. Using the elucidated flux distributions in conjunction with batch fermentation process yield data for various mutant strains, we constructed a kinetic model of C. thermocellum core metabolism (i.e. k-ctherm138). Subsequently, we used the parameterized kinetic model to explore the effect of removing substrate-level regulations on ethanol yield and titer. Upon exploring all possible simultaneous (up to four) regulation removals we identified combinations that lead to many-fold model predicted improvement in ethanol titer. In addition, by coupling a systematic method for identifying putative competitive inhibitory mechanisms using K-FIT kinetic parameterization with the ensemble-docking workflow, we flagged 67 putative substrate-level inhibition mechanisms across central carbon metabolism supported by both kinetic formalism and docking analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enabling Efficient Surveillance, Control, and Automation of Geothermal Operations with Advanced Predictive Analytics

Automation and control of geothermal energy production and operations require reliable and efficient predictive tools. While physics-based simulation offers a comprehensive tool for predicting energy production performance in geothermal systems, predicting the behavior of geothermal reservoirs involves complex multi-physics processes with coupling effects, highly uncertain input parameters and subsurface descriptions. Moreover, building, running, and integrating simulation models into standard model calibration and optimization workflows entail significant technical and computational efforts. An emerging alternative to physics-based simulation is data-driven predictive analytics models that have gained popularity in energy industry. In this report, we develop novel predictive models for integration into real-time fault diagnosis and model predictive control algorithms to improve the efficiency of energy production operations in geothermal reservoirs. The report includes two major research Thrust Areas, that is, the surface power plant and the subsurface reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Model Integration with MOOSE XFEM for Creep Crack Growth

Ferritic-martensitic steels are key structural materials for advanced reactors but experience time-dependent deformation and damage under prolonged high temperature and irradiation, leading to creep-driven crack initiation and growth. High-fidelity models—crystal plasticity with irradiation mechanisms, phase-field for microstructural evolution, and continuum-damage viscoplasticity—capture the underlying physics but are too computationally intensive for broad design-space exploration and uncertainty quantification. This milestone advances a scalable alternative by integrating a microstructure-sensitive surrogate creep model into the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework and extending it to fracture via the extended finite element method (XFEM). The surrogate model, developed with collaborators at Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories, maps relevant microstructural descriptors to the viscoplastic response of HT9. We embed this surrogate within a coupled deformation-damage workflow in MOOSE/XFEM to simulate creep-driven crack initiation and propagation. Implementation enhancements include updates to the material interface, a plastic correction phase involving microstructure evolution, and fracture criteria to ensure numerical robustness and compatibility with the surrogate structure. Demonstrations on canonical creep benchmarks spanning uniaxial and multiaxial states show that the surrogate reproduces key trends of high-fidelity models while substantially reducing computational cost. The resulting capability bridges physics fidelity and performance, providing a practical path to a predictive, microstructure-aware assessment of creep and fracture in reactor materials.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Meshing, Language Server Protocol, and other User-Oriented MOOSE Framework Improvements to Enhance Reactor Analysis Capabilities and Workflows

The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework underpins most of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) physics applications and coupling methods. Users interact with MOOSE in multiple ways to enable the construction of complex multiphysics models, including but not limited to compilation, input creation and syntax validation, meshing, solving the physics problem via MOOSE-based solvers and coupling, and output inspection. In FY23, numerous enhancements have been made to MOOSE to enhance the user experience. Reactor-oriented meshing capabilities in MOOSE have been expanded, an online tutorial was created and hosted on the MOOSE site, and a hands-on workshop was held for more than 100 users. The Language Server Protocol (LSP) capability has been implemented in MOOSE to better communicate correct syntax to the NEAMS Workbench user interface which is commonly used to validate input and submit jobs by users. Finally, several other user-facing improvements were made including the implementation of improved screen output and logging control, enhancements to the initial condition system, and enhancements of the MultiApp system commonly used for coupling. Collectively, these enhancements were driven by user needs and directly improve user ability to construct complex multiphysics models for nuclear reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning continuous scattering length density profiles from neutron reflectivities using convolutional neural networks

Interpreting neutron reflectivity (NR) data using ad hoc multi-layer models and physics-based models provides information about spatially resolved neutron scattering length density (NSLD) profiles. Recent improvements in data acquisition systems have allowed acquiring thousands of NR curves in a couple of hours, which has led to a need for automated data analysis tools to interpret NR measurements in real-time. Here, we present a machine learning analysis workflow that uses a series of models, based on a convolutional neural network (CNN), to learn the relation between the NSLDs and the NRs, and subsequently produce continuous NSLD profiles directly from NRs. The usefulness of our CNN-based models is demonstrated by constructing NSLDs from NRs of several films containing homopolymer polyzwitterions and diblock copolymers mixed with different types of salts. Comparisons of the NSLDs with those constructed using ad hoc multi-layer models reveal a very good agreement, suggesting the potential of CNN-based models for real-time automated data analysis of NRs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗