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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Model calibration of the liquid mercury spallation target using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions

The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source. We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some individual sensors experiencing up to 30% improvement. The calibrated simulations can aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime, which reduces abrupt failure and saves tremendous amount of costs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

A direct-adjoint approach for material point model calibration with application to plasticity

Here, this paper proposes a new approach for the calibration of material parameters in local elastoplastic constitutive models. The calibration is posed as a constrained optimization problem, where the constitutive model evolution equations for a single material point serve as constraints. The objective function quantifies the mismatch between the stress predicted by the model and corresponding experimental measurements. To improve calibration efficiency, a novel direct-adjoint approach is presented to compute the Hessian of the objective function, which enables the use of second-order optimization algorithms. Automatic differentiation is used for gradient and Hessian computations. Two numerical examples are employed to validate the Hessian matrices and to demonstrate that the Newton–Raphson algorithm consistently outperforms gradient-based algorithms such as L-BFGS-B.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

SURFplus model calibration for PBX 9012

PBX 9012 is a plastic bonded explosive composed of 90.2 wt % HMX (cyclo-tetramethylene-tetranitramine) and 9.8 % Viton A (vinylidene-hexafluoropropylene copolymer). It has nearly the same composition as LX-07 (90% HMX and 10% Viton A) but with a slightly lower density. Hence it has a higher porosity and is slightly more shock sensitive. Here we describe the SURFplus model calibration for PBX 9012 using data from five shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) gas gun experiments by Burns and Chiquete, detonation front shape data from rate stick experiments and cylinder test experiment reported in Anderson et al., Jackson et al. The SDT experiments provide Pop plot data points (run distance-to-detonation) which characterize shock initiation, Lagrangian velocity time histories from embedded magnetic velocity gauges which give information on the reaction behind the lead shock, and Hugoniot data points for the reactants EOS. The rate stick experiments provide data on the curvature effect which characterize propagating detonation waves. The cylinder test experiments provide data on the detonation release isentrope used to calibrate the products EOS. The HE model uses a Davis reactants EOS with parameters that Burns and Chiquete [2020] fit to Hugoniot data, and Davis products EOS with parameters that Anderson et al. [2020] fit to cylinder test data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting Permafrost Thaw of Sub-Arctic Tundra With a Thermodynamic Model Calibrated to Site Measurements

Northern circumpolar permafrost thaw affects global carbon cycling, as large amounts of stored soil carbon becomes accessible to microbial breakdown under a warming climate. The magnitude of carbon release is linked to the extent of permafrost thaw, which is locally variable and controlled by soil thermodynamics. Soil thermodynamic properties, such as thermal diffusivity, govern the reactivity of the soil-atmosphere thermal gradient, and are controlled by soil composition and drainage. In order to project permafrost thaw for an Alaskan tundra experimental site, we used seven years of site data to calibrate a soil thermodynamic model using a data assimilation technique. The model reproduced seasonal and interannual temperature dynamics for shallow (5–40 cm) and deep soil layers (2–4 m), and simulations of seasonal thaw depth closely matched observed data. The model was then used to project permafrost thaw at the site to the year 2100 using climate forcing data for three future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Minimal permafrost thawing occurred until mean annual air temperatures rose above the freezing point, after which we measured over a 1 m increase in thaw depth for every 1 °C rise in mean annual air temperature. Under no projected warming scenario was permafrost remaining in the upper 3 m of soil by 2100. We demonstrated an effective data assimilation method that optimizes parameterization of a soil thermodynamic model. The sensitivity of local permafrost to climate warming illustrates the vulnerability of sub-Arctic tundra ecosystems to significant and rapid soil thawing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing mechanical response of CO 2 storage into a depleted carbonate reef using a site-scale geomechanical model calibrated with field tests and InSAR monitoring data

Geomechanical risks of injection have raised concerns regarding secure CO 2 storage. In this work, a combined monitoring and modeling approach is used to assess the stress changes and surface uplift associated with CO 2 injection into a depleted carbonate reef of the Michigan basin. A site-scale geomechanical model is built by assigning mechanical properties of formations using well-log and experimental data. Gravity load is applied to the model to estimate the vertical component of stress as well as different lateral boundary displacement scenarios to estimate horizontal stresses. We used a poroelastic pressure-dependent model (instead of a linear elastic mechanical earth model) to calibrate initial stresses using hydraulic fracture test data measured at depleted reservoir status. Multi-phase fluid flow-geomechanical simulations are performed to estimate the poroelastic response during (1) primary depletion (2) field-scale CO 2 injection phase (3) a hypothetical forecast scenario in which well bottom hole pressure (BHP) reach 45000 KPa. The predicted surface uplift is less than 1 mm at the end of the field-scale CO 2 injection phase which is in good agreement with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) uplift measurement. Although the InSAR data shows an insignificant uplift, hydromechanical modeling of injection shows that CO 2 injection still causes reservoir deformation emphasizing the role of carbonate overburden and reservoir formation mechanical properties and limited size of reef on diminishing the surface deformation. Modeling indicates poroelastic response of caprock matters to estimate uplift. The lower permeability of the top two layers provides additional barrier to large uplift. Also, history of subsidence due to production should be accounted to predict uplift due to a follow up injection correctly. This report shows the significance of combining a calibrated geomechanical model with field measured stresses and monitoring data to be used as a tool to ensure the safety of CO 2 storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)

A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian parameter inference framework to generate a second posterior constrained ensemble coined a “calibrated physics ensemble,” or CPE. The CPE members are characterized by diverse parameter combinations and are, by definition, close to top-of-atmosphere radiative balance, and must broadly agree with numerous hydrologic, energy cycle and radiative forcing metrics simultaneously. Global observations of numerous cloud, environment, and radiation properties (provided by global satellite products) are crucial for CPE generation. The inference framework explicitly accounts for discrepancies (or biases) in satellite products during CPE generation. We demonstrate that product discrepancies strongly impact calibration of important model parameter settings (e.g., convective plume entrainment rates; fall speed for cloud ice). Structural improvements new to E3 are retained across CPE members (e.g., stratocumulus simulation). Notably, the framework improved the simulation of shallow cumulus and Amazon rainfall while not degrading radiation fields, an upgrade that neither default parameters nor Latin Hypercube parameter searching achieved. Analyses of the initial PPE suggested several parameters were unimportant for output variation. However, many “unimportant” parameters were needed for CPE generation, a result that brings to the forefront how parameter importance should be determined in PPEs. From the CPE, two diverse 45-dimensional parameter configurations are retained to generate radiatively-balanced, auto-tuned atmospheres that were used in two E3 submissions to CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal-Mechanical Elastic-Plastic and Ductile Failure Model Calibrations for 304L Stainless Steel Alloy

Numerical simulations of metallic structures undergoing rapid loading into the plastic range require material models that accurately represent the response. In general, the material response can be seen as having four interrelated parts: the baseline response under slow loading, the effect of strain rate, the conversion of plastic work into heat and the effect of temperature. In essence, the material behaves in a thermal-mechanical manner if the loading is fast enough so when heat is generated by plastic deformation it raises the temperature and therefore influences the mechanical response. In these cases, appropriate models that can capture the aspects listed above are necessary. The material of interest here is 304L stainless steel, and the objective of this work is to calibrate thermal-mechanical models: one for the constitutive behavior and another for failure. The work was accomplished by first designing and conducting a material test program to provide data for the calibration of the models. The test program included uniaxial tension tests conducted at room temperature, 150 and 300 C and at strain rates between 10 –4 and 10 3 1/s. It also included notched tension and shear-dominated compression hat tests specifically designed to calibrate the failure model. All test specimens were extracted from a single piece of plate to maintain consistency. The constitutive model adopted was a modular $J_2$ plasticity model with isotropic hardening that included rate and temperature dependence. A criterion for failure initiation based on a critical value of equivalent plastic strain fitted the failure data appropriately and was adopted. Possible ranges of the values of the parameters of the models were determined partially on historical data from calibrations of the same alloy from other lots and are given here. The calibration of the parameters of the models were based on finite element simulations of the various material tests using relatively ne meshes and hexahedral elements. When using the model in structural finite element calculations, however, element formulations and sizes different from those in the calibration are likely to be used. A brief investigation demonstrated that the failure initiation predictions can be particularly sensitive to the element selection and provided an initial guide to compensate for the effect of element size in a specific example.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

GoldSim E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Aquifer Zone Model Calibration Methodology

This report documents the development and calibration of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) Gold Sim aquifer model. It provides a methodology on how a Gold Sim aquifer model can be calibrated to specific PORFLOW-based aquifer predictions. The calibration activity presented within this report focuses on the Slit Trench #06 (ST06) location that resides within the center set of Slit Trenches. This Gold Sim-based aquifer model is a generic model capable of being calibrated to any of the other trench locations within E-Area. In addition, subsequent activities (beyond the scope of this effort) will couple this GoldSim-based aquifer model to various GoldSim-based trench models, with the intent of performing stochastic analyses that couple all pertinent fate and transport processes from the ground surface up to the 100-m point of assessment (POA).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Importance Sampling for Bayesian Model Calibration with Spatio-Temporal Data

This paper addresses two challenges in Bayesian calibration: 1) computational speed of existing sampling algorithms, and 2) calibration with spatio-temporal responses. The commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches require many sequential model evaluations making the computational expense prohibitive. This paper proposes an efficient sampling algorithm: iterative importance sampling with genetic algorithm (IISGA). While iterative importance sampling enables computational efficiency, the genetic algorithm enables robustness by preventing sample degeneration and avoids getting stuck in multimodal search spaces. An inflated likelihood further enables robustness in high-dimensional parameter spaces by enlarging the target distribution. Spatio-temporal data complicate both surrogate modeling, which is necessary for expensive computational models, and the likelihood estimation. In this work, singular value decomposition is investigated for reducing the high-dimensional field data to a lower-dimensional space prior to Bayesian calibration. Then the likelihood is formulated and Bayesian inference is performed in the lower-dimension, latent space. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate IISGA relative to existing sampling methods, and then IISGA is employed to calibrate a thermal battery model with 26 uncertain calibration parameters and spatio-temporal response data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗
DOE OSTI2021

In-Situ Calibrated Modeling of Residual Stresses Induced in Machining under Various Cooling and Lubricating Environments

Although many functional characteristics, such as fatigue life and damage resistance depend on residual stresses, there are currently no industrially viable ‘Digital Process Twin’ models (DPTs) capable of efficiently and quickly predicting machining-induced stresses. By leveraging advances in ultra-high-speed in-situ experimental characterization of machining and finishing processes under plane strain (orthogonal/2D) conditions, we have developed a set of physics-based semi-analytical models to predict residual stress evolution in light of the extreme gradients of stress, strain and temperature, which are unique to these thermo-mechanical processes. Initial validation trials of this novel paradigm were carried out in Ti-6Al4V and AISI 4340 alloy steel. A variety dry, cryogenically cooled and oil lubricated conditions were evaluated to determine the model’s ability to capture the tribological changes induced due to lubrication and cooling. The preliminarily calibrated and validated model exhibited an average correlation of better than 20% between the predicted stresses and experimental data, with calculation times of less than a second. Based on such fast-acting DPTs, the authors envision future capabilities in pro-active surface engineering of advanced structural components (e.g., turbine blades).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Massively Parallel Bayesian Model Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification with Applications to Nuclear Fuels and Materials

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in a nuclear reactor is governed by a complex network of mechanisms interacting with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent the fuel behavior will likely be idealized resulting in uncertainties in their predictions compared to the observed data. As such, this report was motivated by the need to identify the sources of uncertainties and quantify and propagate them through the fuel model outputs. Such quantification of uncertainties will establish a level of model trustworthiness, identify approaches to improve the model trustworthiness, and even guide optimal experiment design for maximal information gain. To accomplish the uncertainty quantification for computational models, this report has relied on the Bayesian framework which provides probabilistic treatment of models their inputs and outputs. The current state-of-the-art on performing Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for nuclear engineering models using High Performance Computing (HPC) resources have been reviewed. Implementation of capabilities for massively parallel Bayesian UQ in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is discussed. Several verification cases are discussed to verify the accuracy of the quantified uncertainties using the developed computational capabilities in MOOSE. Then, the problem of quantifying the uncertainties in TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) fuel silver release is addressed. For the first time, the uncertainties arising from the TRISO Fission Gas Release (FGR) model due to model inadequacy and experimental noise are quantified. Also, the Bayesian capabilities are applied to the calibration of the MATPRO creep model, a widely used model in several fuel assessment cases. The impact of the prediction uncertainties in the MATPRO model on the fuel cladding behavior as part of the TRIBULATION assessment case (which is an integral effects case) is investigated. This report concludes with a discussion on the future work for the UQ for computational models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗