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At least 55 records · Page 3

2002 VCMPO Model Calibration and Home-Based Travel Survey

The 2001-2002 Model Calibration and Home-Based Travel Survey was a study conducted in Volusia County, Florida. One of the major purposes of the survey project was to collect information to allow for a better understanding of the travel habits and patterns of residents within Volusia County. The project was jointly funded by the Florida Department of Transportation, Volusia County, and the Volusia County MPO. Demographic and trip data were collected for 2,727 households from February 20, 2002, to February 28, 2002. Respondents were asked to record their travel and activities for a 48-hour period. Detailed information regarding their trips, including mode of transportation, trip purpose, departure and arrival times, and number of passengers, were gathered from 13,408 trips.

1Hz data↗

On the Use of Optimization Techniques for Turbulence Model Calibration

This article discusses the use of numerical optimization procedures to aid in the calibration of turbulence model coefficients. Such methods would increase the rigor and repeatability of the calibration procedure by requiring clearly defined and objective optimization metrics, and could be used to identify unique combinations of coefficient values for specific flow problems. The approach is applied to the re-calibration of an explicit algebraic Reynolds stress model for the incompressible planar mixing layer using the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm and a micro-genetic algorithm with minimally imposed constraints. Three composite fitness functions, each based upon the error in the mixing layer growth rate and the normal and shear components of the Reynolds stresses, are investigated. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the target objectives through the adjustment of three pressure-strain coefficients. Adjustments of additional coefficients provide little further benefit. Issues regarding the effectiveness of the fitness functions and the efficiency of the optimization algorithms are also discussed.

Yoder, Dennis A.↗

A Model Calibration Method for Grid-Forming Inverters Using Iterative Bayesian Optimization

As inverter-based resources (IBRs) are rapidly deployed, especially at the distribution and microgrid levels, the need to include their accurate representations in power systems models increases. With well-calibrated models, IBR-interactions can be examined, preventing any stability and operational issues, especially in islanded systems. This paper proposes a method to calibrate generic inverter models using Bayesian optimization, but with a parameter-grouping approach to improve speed and accuracy. This approach is illustrated for a grid-forming inverter using synthetic data and field measurements from a simple IBRbased microgrid. Tests show that the calibration algorithm has modest computation cost and is robust to noisy measurements..

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

A Spectacular Viscoelastic Model Calibration for 828/D230/Alox Generated from Legacy Sandia Data

The nonlinear viscoelastic Spectacular model is calibrated to the thermo-mechanical behavior of 828/D230/Alox with an alox volume fraction of 20 %. Legacy experimental data from Sandia’s polymer properties database (PPD) is used to calibrate the model. Based on known densities of the epoxy 828/D230 and the alox filler, the alox volume fractions listed on the PPD were likely reported incorrectly. The alox volume fractions are recalculated here. Using the recalculated alox volume fractions, the PPD contains experimental data for 828/D230/Alox with alox volume fractions of 16 %, 24 %, and 33 %, so the thermo-mechanical behavior at 20 % alox volume fraction is estimated by interpolating between the bounding cases of of 16 % and 24 %. Because the Spectacularmodel can be fairly challenging to calibrate, the calibration procedure is described in detail. Several of the calibration steps involve inverse parameter identification, where an experiment is simulated and parameters are iteratively updated until the model response matches the experimental data. As the PPD does not fully describe all experimental procedures, the experimental simulations use assumed thermal and mechanical loading rates that are typical for the viscoelastic characterization of epoxies. Spectacular uses four independent relaxation functions related to volumetric (ƒ 1 ), shear (ƒ 2 ), thermal strain (ƒ 3 ), and thermal relaxations (ƒ 4 ). The previous SPEC model form, also known as the universal_polymer model, uses two independent relaxation functions related to volumetric and thermal relaxation (ƒ ν = ƒ 1 = ƒ 3 = ƒ 4 ) and shear relaxation (ƒ s = ƒ 2 ). The two constitutive choices are briefly evaluated here, where it is found that the four relaxation function approach of Spectacular was better suited for fitting the coefficient of thermal expansion during both heating and cooling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An initial exploration of Bayesian model calibration for estimating the composition of rocks and soils on Mars

The Mars Curiosity rover carries an instrument, ChemCam, designed to measure the composition of surface rocks and soil using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). The measured spectra from this instrument must be analyzed to identify the component elements in the target sample, as well as their relative proportions. This process, which we call disaggregation, is complicated by so-called matrix effects, which describe nonlinear changes in the relative heights of emission lines as an unknown function of composition due to atomic interactions within the LIBS plasma. In this work, we explore the use of the plasma physics code ATOMIC, developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, for the disaggregation task. ATOMIC has recently been used to model LIBS spectra and can robustly reproduce matrix effects from first principles. The ability of ATOMIC to predict LIBS spectra presents an exciting opportunity to perform disaggregation in a manner not yet tried in the LIBS community, namely via Bayesian model calibration. However, using it directly to solve our inverse problem is computationally intractable due to the large parameter space and the computation time required to produce a single output. Therefore, we also explore the use of emulators as a fast solution for this analysis. We discuss a proof of concept Gaussian process emulator for disaggregating two-element compounds of sodium and copper. The training and test datasets were simulated with ATOMIC using a Latin hypercube design. After testing the performance of the emulator, we successfully recover the composition of 25 test spectra with Bayesian model calibration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Invertible neural networks for E3SM land model calibration and simulation

We apply an invertible neural network (INN) for E3SM land model calibration and simulation with eight parameters at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. INN provides bijective (two-way) mappings between inputs and outputs, thus it can solve probabilistic inverse problems and forward approximations simultaneously. We demonstrate INN's inverse and forward capability in both synthetic and real-data applications. Results indicate that INN produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling and it generates model outputs close to the forward model simulations. Additionally, both the inverse and forward evaluations in INN are computationally efficient which allows for rapid integration of observations for parameter estimation and fast model predictions.

Lu, Dan↗

The tropospheric calibration model for Mariner Mars 1971

The effects of the troposphere on arrival time, range, and range rate measurement of radio signals propagating from spacecraft are examined. A tropospheric calibration model which takes into account seasonal variations, various elevations, and apparent location changes was developed. A comparison was made of the effects before and after calibration. Without calibration, a 16-m change in the distance off the spin axis, is induced for a 10-deg minimum elevation symmetrical pass. Even after calibration with the old model, the error in spin axis is still greater than 1 m. Calibration results and estimated uncertainties of the model are given in tabular form. Test results also show that the model met the required accuracy for the Mariner Mars 1971 mission.

C. C. Chao↗

Distribution System Model Calibration Algorithms

SAND2021-15065 O This release contains Python code for two distribution system model calibration algorithms as well as some sample data and documentation for the algorithms and code. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Blakely, Logan↗

Distribution System Model Calibration for GMLC 3.3.3 "Incipient Failure Identification for Common Grid Asset Classes" - Project Summary

Distribution system model calibration is a key enabling task for incipient failure identification within the distribution system. This report summarizes the work and publications by Sandia National Laboratories on the GMLC project titled “Incipient Failure Identification for Common Grid Asset Classes”. This project was a joint effort between Sandia National Laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The included work covers distribution system topology identification, transformer groupings, phase identification, regulator and tap position estimation, and the open-source release and implementation of the developed algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Model calibration of the liquid mercury spallation target using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions

The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source. We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some individual sensors experiencing up to 30% improvement. The calibrated simulations can aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime, which reduces abrupt failure and saves tremendous amount of costs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A direct-adjoint approach for material point model calibration with application to plasticity

Here, this paper proposes a new approach for the calibration of material parameters in local elastoplastic constitutive models. The calibration is posed as a constrained optimization problem, where the constitutive model evolution equations for a single material point serve as constraints. The objective function quantifies the mismatch between the stress predicted by the model and corresponding experimental measurements. To improve calibration efficiency, a novel direct-adjoint approach is presented to compute the Hessian of the objective function, which enables the use of second-order optimization algorithms. Automatic differentiation is used for gradient and Hessian computations. Two numerical examples are employed to validate the Hessian matrices and to demonstrate that the Newton–Raphson algorithm consistently outperforms gradient-based algorithms such as L-BFGS-B.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SURFplus model calibration for PBX 9012

PBX 9012 is a plastic bonded explosive composed of 90.2 wt % HMX (cyclo-tetramethylene-tetranitramine) and 9.8 % Viton A (vinylidene-hexafluoropropylene copolymer). It has nearly the same composition as LX-07 (90% HMX and 10% Viton A) but with a slightly lower density. Hence it has a higher porosity and is slightly more shock sensitive. Here we describe the SURFplus model calibration for PBX 9012 using data from five shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) gas gun experiments by Burns and Chiquete, detonation front shape data from rate stick experiments and cylinder test experiment reported in Anderson et al., Jackson et al. The SDT experiments provide Pop plot data points (run distance-to-detonation) which characterize shock initiation, Lagrangian velocity time histories from embedded magnetic velocity gauges which give information on the reaction behind the lead shock, and Hugoniot data points for the reactants EOS. The rate stick experiments provide data on the curvature effect which characterize propagating detonation waves. The cylinder test experiments provide data on the detonation release isentrope used to calibrate the products EOS. The HE model uses a Davis reactants EOS with parameters that Burns and Chiquete [2020] fit to Hugoniot data, and Davis products EOS with parameters that Anderson et al. [2020] fit to cylinder test data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗

Projecting Permafrost Thaw of Sub-Arctic Tundra With a Thermodynamic Model Calibrated to Site Measurements

Northern circumpolar permafrost thaw affects global carbon cycling, as large amounts of stored soil carbon becomes accessible to microbial breakdown under a warming climate. The magnitude of carbon release is linked to the extent of permafrost thaw, which is locally variable and controlled by soil thermodynamics. Soil thermodynamic properties, such as thermal diffusivity, govern the reactivity of the soil-atmosphere thermal gradient, and are controlled by soil composition and drainage. In order to project permafrost thaw for an Alaskan tundra experimental site, we used seven years of site data to calibrate a soil thermodynamic model using a data assimilation technique. The model reproduced seasonal and interannual temperature dynamics for shallow (5–40 cm) and deep soil layers (2–4 m), and simulations of seasonal thaw depth closely matched observed data. The model was then used to project permafrost thaw at the site to the year 2100 using climate forcing data for three future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Minimal permafrost thawing occurred until mean annual air temperatures rose above the freezing point, after which we measured over a 1 m increase in thaw depth for every 1 °C rise in mean annual air temperature. Under no projected warming scenario was permafrost remaining in the upper 3 m of soil by 2100. We demonstrated an effective data assimilation method that optimizes parameterization of a soil thermodynamic model. The sensitivity of local permafrost to climate warming illustrates the vulnerability of sub-Arctic tundra ecosystems to significant and rapid soil thawing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗