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DOE OSTI2025

Versatile & Intelligent Biodetection via Environmental Sensing (VIBES)

Reactive health monitoring strategies during events like the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for predictive, threat-agnostic diagnostics that can detect both known diseases and novel chemical or biological threats. To address this, we investigated an optical biosensor as a breath volatile organic compound (VOC) analyzer, aiming to emulate biological olfaction. We assembled and validated the device with thin film metal coated substrate-based sensors. We immobilized small biological recognition elements on the substrates and delivered controlled concentrations of target VOCs. The sensor was irradiated with a visible laser and the sensor signal was recorded. We characterized the laser performance and tested 3 recognition elements for 2 VOCs with varying concentrations (1-100 ppm). We also evaluated enhancement of the signal using nanostructures on the metal film in comparison with planar film substrate. We demonstrated detecting ethanol reliably at concentrations as low as ~2 ppm along with preliminary detection of acetone (<100 ppm). We also found several unexpected factors that influence the sensor behavior that should be addressed to further refine the device’s performance. The nanostructures were, as expected, found to amplify the sensor signals. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of the optical bio-sensing modality for breath VOC monitoring at physiologically relevant levels. This positions LLNL to develop a low-cost, scalable, broad-spectrum health monitoring capability aligned with the Early Detection thrust of the Bioresilience Mission Focus Area and attract external funding.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-Range Biometric Identification in Real World Scenarios: A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework Based on Missions

The considerable body of data available for evaluating biometric recognition systems in Research and Development (R&D) environments has contributed to the increasingly common problem of target performance mismatch. Biometric algorithms are frequently tested against data that may not reflect the real world applications they target. From a Testing and Evaluation (T&E) standpoint, this domain mismatch causes difficulty assessing when improvements in State-of-the-Art (SOTA) research actually translate to improved applied outcomes. This problem can be addressed with thoughtful preparation of data and experimental methods to reflect specific use-cases and scenarios.To that end, this paper evaluates research solutions for identifying individuals at ranges and altitudes, which could support various application areas such as counterterrorism, protection of critical infrastructure facilities, military force protection, and border security. We address challenges including image quality issues and reliance on face recognition as the sole biometric modality. By fusing face and body features, we propose developing robust biometric systems for effective long-range identification from both the ground and steep pitch angles. Preliminary results show promising progress in whole-body recognition. This paper presents these early findings and discusses potential future directions for advancing long-range biometric identification systems based on mission-driven metrics.

Aykac, Deniz↗

DOE OSTI2026

Throughput Estimation of Data Transport Networks From Digital Twin Measurements

Digital twins of networked infrastructures, known as Virtual Infrastructure Twins (VITs), are increasingly used for software development, pre-deployment testing, and design space exploration. While VITs avoid the costs and potential disruptions associated with experiments on operational networks, their throughput measurements are typically not sufficiently accurate for performance profiling of wide-area networks that they emulate. Here, machine learning (ML) methods are developed to transform these inaccurate VIT network throughput measurements to closely match in peak and overall profile of those from a physical testbed or production network. First, a micro kernel network reflecting a physical network is utilized to collect one-time measurements on a host to support this ML transformation. Then, a generic multi-modal ML method is developed to learn a map that transforms measurements from subsequent VITs on the same host to match past, current and follow-on testbed and cloud networks. ML generalization equations are derived to establish its correctness and probabilistically guarantee its generalization accuracy. Experimental results are presented for a variety of VIT hosts with target testbed and cloud networks; they include a case study of a four-site science ecosystem wherein inaccurate convex VIT measurement profiles are transformed into accurate concave profiles of target networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical simulation of vortex-induced vibration response of a single IEA 10-MW wind turbine blade

Three-dimensional simulation of vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a single International Energy Agency (IEA) 10-MW reference wind turbine blade with a length of 97.325 m is performed using the ExaWind stack, an open-source suite of codes. This study aims to illustrate the spanwise VIV response characteristics and cross-validate the results with an existing commercial framework. Five near-body meshes and three time steps are selected for the convergence study. To improve computational efficiency, several VIV triggering methods are also compared to shorten the VIV development period. The ExaWind-based VIV simulation strategy for a single IEA 10-MW blade is determined. First, the modal shape is validated against published results. Then, spanwise VIV responses of four blade configurations under a fixed and varied incoming flow velocity are analyzed. Results show that the VIV response is dominated by the first edgewise (second overall) mode. Little first-mode contributions appear near the second-mode node, producing a pi phase jump, and a higher harmonics response occurs near the blade root. Rotational degrees of freedom are minor compared with translational motion. The response versus reduced velocity is analyzed, showing a two-branch behavior similar to that of VIV for a bluff cylinder. Across all tested cases, the dominant frequency remains locked to the natural frequency of the second mode with no observed desynchronization. A mild deviation is observed for the case of 90-degree pitch and 310-degree azimuth rotation near a reduced velocity of 6, which will be examined with additional cases in future work. These findings indicate that severe VIV responses can arise under specific configurations and flow conditions, thereby increasing the potential for VIV fatigue damage and requiring greater attention during operation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Data-Agnostic, Continuous Machine Learning Framework for Application in High Energy Physics and Beyond: Phase 1 Final Scientific/Technical Report

This Phase 1 effort has focused on the development of continual learning frameworks for use in machine learning, specifically in the applied context of High Energy Physics (HEP). Machine learning (ML) is a transformative technology by which computers, typically through the use of neural networks, are able to perform tasks with proficiency that rivals or surpasses that of human users. Model Degradation & Catastrophic Forgetting are two undesired phenomena which can occur in ML where the performance of a model degrades when either deployed on novel data streams, or trained on novel data which are sufficiently different than the data the models were initially trained on. A natural example where these sorts of effects can be observed is in the performance of detectors in harsh environments, where the detector signature may change over the lifetime of the detector as it ages and deteriorates — precisely what occurs in the experiments conducted in HEP. Real world HEP data is therefore an excellent test-ground and use-case for Continual Learning paradigms, which are techniques used in ML to counteract these problems. Ensemble learning is one such technique, where multiple smaller models are trained on subsets of the overall data and are ensembled together during inference. The intuition behind this technique is that, although there are shifts in the distributions which govern the incoming data streams, these shifts are not expected to be homogeneous or global. If a sufficient diversity in solutions within the various sub-models has been achieved, then at least one sub-model is expected to retain its performance within the overall ensemble. One further strength of this approach is that the architectures of the various models do not need to be identical, and in fact even different modalities of data can naturally be combined in this way. This work focused on applying ensemble learning techniques to derive results using two main datasets, anomaly detection in HEP data & time-series forecasting in semiconductor manufacturing data. Semiconductor manufacturing involves data with surprising similarity to that of HEP (e.g. wafer maps look very similar to digi-occupancy maps) and Cerium Lab’s prominence within the semiconductor industry makes semiconductor manufacturing a natural opportunity for commercialization of this work. Our efforts have led to two strong results. The first is that we evaluated the proposed ensembling techniques using previously proposed machine learning architectures for use in anomaly detection, namely AutoEncoder based models and their derivatives. We also developed new architectures which have not been evaluated in this context before. In fact, this work marks the first use of Vision Transformers for anomaly detection in HEP. Second, we demonstrated that ensemble learning significantly improves model performance in scenarios prone to degradation, validating its effectiveness across both HEP and semiconductor datasets. These results further support ensemble learning as a powerful strategy for mitigating catastrophic forgetting and maintaining robust performance in evolving data environments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Uptake Patterns of Radioactive Iodine and [18F]-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) in Metastatic Differentiated Thyroid Cancers

Background: Metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) represents a molecularly heterogeneous group of cancers with varying radioactive iodine (RAI) and [ 18 F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake patterns potentially correlated with the degree of de-differentiation through the so-called “flip-flop” phenomenon. However, it is unknown if RAI and FDG uptake patterns correlate with molecular status or metastatic site. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis of metastatic DTC patients (n = 46) with radioactive 131-iodine whole body scan (WBS) and FDG-PET imaging between 2008 and 2022 was performed. The inclusion criteria included accessible FDG-PET and WBS studies within 1 year of each other. Studies were interpreted by two blinded radiologists for iodine or FDG uptake in extrathyroidal sites including lungs, lymph nodes, and bone. Cases were stratified by BRAF V600E mutation status, histology, and a combination of tumor genotype and histology. The data were analyzed by McNemar’s Chi-square test. Results: Lung metastasis FDG uptake was significantly more common than iodine uptake (WBS: 52%, FDG: 84%, p = 0.04), but no significant differences were found for lymph or bone metastases. Lung metastasis FDG uptake was significantly more prevalent in the papillary pattern sub-cohort (WBS: 37%, FDG: 89%, p = 0.02) than the follicular pattern sub-cohort (WBS: 75%, FDG: 75%, p = 1.00). Similarly, BRAF V600E+ tumors with lung metastases also demonstrated a preponderance of FDG uptake (WBS: 29%, FDG: 93%, p = 0.02) than BRAF V600E- tumors (WBS: 83%, FDG: 83%, p = 1.00) with lung metastases. Papillary histology featured higher FDG uptake in lung metastasis (WBS: 39%, FDG: 89%, p = 0.03) compared with follicular histology (WBS: 69%, FDG: 77%, p = 1.00). Patients with papillary pattern disease, BRAF V600E+ mutation, or papillary histology had reduced agreement between both modalities in uptake at all metastatic sites compared with those with follicular pattern disease, BRAF V600E- mutation, or follicular histology. Low agreement in lymph node uptake was observed in all patients irrespective of molecular status or histology. Conclusions: The pattern of FDG-PET and radioiodine uptake is dependent on molecular status and metastatic site, with those with papillary histology or BRAF V600E+ mutation featuring increased FDG uptake in distant metastasis. Further study with an expanded cohort may identify which patients may benefit from specific imaging modalities to recognize and surveil metastases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Higher Efficiency, Demand Flexible Refrigerator with On-Demand Micro-Vibrational De-icing Technology

Refrigerator technology has advanced significantly over the last couple of decades. Today’s refrigerators use only about 25% of the energy that was required to power models built in 1975. Even as they continually improve efficiency to meet standards, refrigerators have increased in size by almost 20%, added energy-consuming features such as through-the-door ice, and provide more benefits than ever before. However, a few challenges and technology gaps are preventing further improvement of the demand responsiveness and efficiency of the refrigerators. One of the major technology gaps in existing refrigerators is their outdated de-icing process. When the evaporator generates frost, an old-fashioned resistive heating element melts the ice. Most refrigerators have a timed defrost cycle, rather than an active system that could monitor the state of the frost. In these systems, not only is the precious electricity used at its least efficient form of conversion (direct conversion of electricity to heat), but also all the latent heat associated with the ice is wasted during the melting process. On top of that, the refrigerator needs to work harder to pull the temperature down after defrosting, and, last but not least, the food quality is severely impacted by the temperature swings during the defrost cycle. According to a study, the EU alone wastes 89 million tons of food in the supply chain every year. Any temperature swing during defrosting (about 6F according to Emerson for low-temperature cases) can negatively impact the shelf life of meat and other products for multiple days. All these issues can happen during the peak demand time of the electric grid. Unlike the conventional systems, the proposed novel advanced micro-vibrational deicing process uses no heat for defrosting. Instead, it uses the micro vibrations generated by a piezoelectric or vibration-generating module to mechanically break ice from the heat exchanger almost instantaneously. The project titled “Higher Efficiency, Demand Flexible Refrigerator with On-Demand Micro-Vibrational De-icing Technology, performed by Ultrasonic Technology Solutions, LLC (UTS) of Knoxville, TN, in collaboration with Emerson (now Copeland), represents the final phase of a multi-year effort funded under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) BENEFIT FOA 2020. Initiated on October 1, 2021, and completed after a nine-month no-cost extension ending September 30, 2025, this project aimed to develop and validate a novel micro-vibrational mechanical defrosting system, achieving more than 25% improvement in defrosting energy efficiency over conventional baseline defrosting technologies. Over sixteen quarters, the project advanced from fundamental ice-mechanical characterization and prototype development to full-scale system integration and validation. Initial efforts established project management infrastructure and characterized ice adhesion properties, followed by the design and fabrication of early aluminum-based prototypes for resonance frequency testing. Subsequent quarters saw rapid technical progression, including the identification of optimal piezoelectric and motor-based vibration mechanisms, the demonstration of effective de-icing over 6x6-inch aluminum surfaces. The team achieved its Go/No-Go milestone by exceeding the 25% energy-efficiency improvement target—reaching up to 3,340% under optimized conditions—and later confirmed that motor-driven systems offered superior performance and energy efficiency compared to piezoelectric alternatives. Continued refinement led to the development of amplifier systems on printed circuit boards, improved control and instrumentation hardware, and integration into full-scale heat exchanger (HX) prototypes at both UTS and Copeland facilities. Multiple vibration-mounting studies and frost-growth experiments guided mechanical optimization and noise-mitigation strategies, achieving a 17.5 dB reduction in sound pressure level and verifying robust mechanical performance. Advanced analyses, including modal and harmonic simulations, established a quantitative understanding of vibrational behavior and de-icing efficiency across >1000 cm² systems. The final project phase successfully demonstrated scalable integration within reach-in and chest freezer prototypes, confirmed >25% efficiency improvements in large-area systems, and completed a comprehensive business model and scale-up strategy identifying electric defrost systems as the primary beachhead market. The culmination of this DOE-supported effort establishes micro-vibrational defrosting as a viable, high-efficiency, low-noise, and demand-flexible de-icing technology, paving the way for commercial deployment and broader application in next-generation refrigeration systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine tool cross beam design, fabrication, and testing using metal big area additive manufacturing

This paper describes the application of metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing (mBAAM) to the fabrication of a machine tool cross beam. The replacement of a traditional box design weldment with a new design printed by wire arc additive manufacturing using the MedUSA system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is detailed. This requires a new design strategy based on the unique mBAAM capabilities. The intent of the new design is to reduce mass, while maintaining the dynamic stiffness. To compare the two designs, the natural frequencies and mode shapes are measured using impact testing and predicted using finite element analysis. It is confirmed that the printed structure dynamics agreed with the numerical model predictions, which demonstrates that it is feasible to model a large-scale mBAAM part and understand its behavior prior to printing. Another notable outcome of this study is that the significant residual stress and distortion in the print indicate that knowledge gaps remain for widespread implementation of mBAAM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Automatic Calibration of Infrastructure Lidar, Radar, and Camera with a Global Navigation Satellite System

Robust and accurate perception is important for modern intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which use sensors of various modalities for data fusion to create a digital twin of an intersection. Sensor calibration is an important process that creates a unified coordinate frame for the sensor output data so that it can be used for data fusion. Classical approaches for sensor calibration are time-consuming, require an overlapping field of view for feature matching, and are not feasible for ITS application as they cause disruptions in the flow of traffic. In this paper, we present a spatiotemporal automatic calibration approach to calibrate multiple infrastructure lidar, radar, and cameras installed at a traffic intersection. The approach uses global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning information shared by connected vehicles, and when the vehicle is detected by the sensor, we match the sensor detections with the GNSS coordinates. The proposed algorithm is evaluated with a real-world dataset utilizing detections from two radars, cameras, and lidars with a test vehicle instrumented with a post-processing kinematic (PPK)-corrected GNSS driving past the sensors installed at a four-way traffic intersection. The experimental results show that the proposed automatic calibration approach can achieve the transformation with a root mean squared error of less than 0.5 for radar and lidar and less than 2 for camera detections. The ability to rapidly calibrate sensors not only benefits initial installations, but can also be used for system health monitoring, while utilizing available connected vehicle data to test the real-time sensor fidelity and operational status.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY CONSERVATION, C↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatiotemporal Automatic Calibration of Infrastructure Lidar, Radar, and Camera with a Global Navigation Satellite System: Preprint

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydride and Seek: Comparing Crystallographic Hydride Placement Techniques with an Open-Shell Cobalt Complex

Locating hydrides is crucial in organometallic chemistry but difficult to do accurately using X-ray diffraction. Electron diffraction has been proposed as a way to overcome this problem but has not been systematically compared to neutron diffraction and to quantum crystallography (Hirshfeld atom refinement, HAR) to test this hypothesis. Here, we present a comparative analysis of methods for a terminal cobalt hydride complex by comparing a single-crystal neutron diffraction reference structure to results from single-crystal X-ray diffraction with and without Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR, NoSpherA2), density functional theory (DFT), and electron diffraction (3D-ED/MicroED) refined under kinematical and dynamical formalisms. Conventional X-ray diffraction gives lower precision than neutron diffraction as expected. Despite expected improvements, HAR gives systematic deviation from the neutron benchmark. Interestingly, optimized DFT equilibrium geometries are closer to the neutron value than the value from HAR. On the other hand, electron diffraction with a high-quality data set coupled with dynamical refinement localizes the hydride in difference maps and gives excellent agreement with the neutron data. Dynamical refinement is crucial, as kinematical refinement does not allow assignment of a hydride peak. This cross-modal comparison defines the conditions under which 3D-ED/MicroED delivers high-precision metal–hydride distances for this open-shell cobalt hydride.

anions↗

DOE OSTI2026

FY 2026 Midyear Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Seismometers

Safeguards-relevant temporal changes in underground facilities can be observed using geophysical monitoring techniques. Seismic waves, in particular, provide valuable insights into subsurface activities and can serve as an important tool for detecting anomalous events that may indicate containment breaches at geological repositories. This midyear report summarizes ongoing efforts to automatically and rapidly detect and locate anomalous vibration signals that could be indicative of potential containment breaches. Previous work during FY25 focused on compiling continuous seismic datasets from two underground sites and developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data derived from multiple sensing modalities. Building on this foundation, we are adapting anomaly detection and geolocation algorithms to explore methods for monitoring underground activities using two relatively low-maintenance sensing technologies: a dense surface geophone array deployed at the Pleasant Gap mine in Pennsylvania, and a three-dimensional fiber-optic cable array for distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) installed in the subsurface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. This report summarizes work conducted during the first two quarters of FY26, during which we refined a dynamic power spectral density (PSD)-based detector, applied it independently to each geophone station, and then combined the per‑station detections with density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to cluster events and produce spatial maps over a nine‑day interval. In addition, we outline plans for a field trial at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico to compare traditional seismic monitoring approaches with DAS techniques and to evaluate the benefits of combined data analysis. Activities during the past two quarters have included the preparation and submission of a Field Test Plan to WIPP for approval, as well as submission to headquarters for review and feedback.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cascading economic losses from port disruptions under capacity constrained multimodal freight networks

This study quantifies how throughput disruptions at major seaports cascade through capacity-constrained multimodal freight networks and interregional production systems. We couple an agent-based model (ABM) multimodal freight simulation that resolves rerouting, terminal queueing, and inventory drawdown under binding modal and facility capacities with a multiregional output loss input-output (MRIIM) model that propagates realized delivery shortfalls across regions and sectors. The framework is demonstrated for the Port of Los Angeles using Freight Analysis Framework flows and Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output accounts and is evaluated over a 52-week horizon under deterministic sector targeted shocks and stochastic disruption realizations with uncertain severity and duration. Results indicate nonlinear amplification: realized national losses concentrate in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing even when exogenous port shocks are dispersed, suggesting that congestion spillback and limited short-run substitution can dominate the initial shock allocation. We further evaluate a tabular reinforcement-learning (Q-learning) intervention layer that selects among a small set of implementable system level levers (truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge shift settings) without overriding shipper routing, finding that such interventions reduce total losses for moderate disruptions but yield diminishing returns once substitute modes approach capacity. By linking operational freight behavior to system wide impacts under uncertainty, the proposed ABM-MRIIM pipeline provides a reusable workflow for port disruption stress testing, identification of structurally critical sectors/corridors, and evaluation of resilience interventions under realistic capacity limits.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

An explainable variational autoencoder model for three-dimensional acoustic emission source localization in hollow cylindrical structures

We introduce an explainable variational autoencoder for three-dimensional (3D) localization of acoustic emission sources in hollow cylindrical structures, with an unsupervised approach. This research capitalizes on multi-arrival waveforms generated by helical path propagation in cylindrical geometries to enable efficient two-receiver localization. By integrating the modal characteristics of Lamb modes under multi-path conditions, we demonstrate that two sets of time-of-arrival differences and peak amplitudes extracted from one receiver can serve as effective localization features. This initial approach identifies four potential source locations, highlighting the feasibility of two-receiver source localization using traditional feature extraction methods. However, direct extraction can be challenging when mode overlaps occur, complicating the localization process. To address this, our work proposes a novel waveform-based method. This method leverages the consistent dispersion characteristics within isotropic materials, where each unique combination of mode arrival times and peak amplitudes constructs a distinct waveform. This distinctiveness overcomes the ambiguities associated with mode overlaps, significantly enhancing the method’s precision and robustness. Our approach adopts a data-driven strategy for waveform-based localization using variational autoencoder (VAE). VAE discerns waveform patterns for localization, while also addressing data uncertainties. The VAE’s encoder and decoder networks capture the localization process and the source’s influence on waveform generation, respectively, guiding latent variables to segregate waveforms by source in the latent space. The design of the learning process focuses on specific localization characteristics to enhance result explainability. Localization predictions are generated by projecting test waveforms, not included in the training set, onto a trained latent space. The prediction is determined using a nearest-neighbor approach based on the closest latent representation of a source. Validation with pencil-lead-break tests on a metallic pipe confirmed our method’s effectiveness, achieving an averaged 3D localization accuracy of 0.84.

Lee, Guan-Wei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗