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At least 55 records · Page 3

Evaluating China's Road to Cyber Super Power

This report examines open source, non-classified qualitative analysis to evaluate China’s current cyber maturity. Evidence for this document draws on materials from academia, private cybersecurity companies, and national security research institutions. Private sector threat intelligence firms produce high quality analysis on Chinese APTs tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), and investigation from companies such as FireEye illuminate China’s ability to wield cyber means for its security ends. None of the materials cited in this assessment originate from classified United States or foreign government sources. Any references to United States government sources are sourced entirely to unclassified information.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Dynamic Tripolar Strategic Balance: A Net Assessment (Workshop Summary)

On December 9-10, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “The Dynamic Tripolar Strategic Balance: A Net Assessment.” The discussion was guided by the following key questions: • By what metrics should the strategic balance be assessed? • How dynamic is the balance? How fragile? • Is the United States gaining strategic advantage, losing it, or holding steady, overall? • In order to gain new advantages or re-gain advantages lost, can or should the United States prioritize some domains and accept more risk in others? If so, which ones?

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Super‐Droplet Method to Simulate Lagrangian Microphysics of Nuclear Fallout in a Homogeneous Cloud

Abstract Nuclear detonations produce hazardous local and global particles or fallout. Predicting fallout size, chemical components, and location is necessary to inform officials and determine immediate guidance for the public. However, existing nuclear detonation fallout models prescribe the particle size distributions based on limited observations. In this work, we apply the super‐droplet method, which is a numerical modeling technique developed for cloud microphysics, to simulate size distributions of particles in a mushroom cloud formed post‐detonation of a nuclear device. We model fallout formation and evolution with homogeneous nucleation and condensation of a single species and a Monte Carlo coagulation algorithm. We verify the numerical methods representing coagulation and condensation processes against analytical test problems. Additionally, we explore several scenarios for the integral system mass and yield in equivalent kilotons (kt) of TNT (trinitrotoluene). The fallout size distribution median diameter d pg follows a scaling law based on the integral system mass m v 0 kg and yield Y kt: nm. We test the effect of cloud turbulence, enhanced nucleation and growth, and vapor volatility with a sensitivity study. The range in median diameter predictions for simulations of historical tests performed over the Pacific encompass the measurements of particles sampled from the cloud caps. Predicted median particle size ranges up to 217, 123, 86, and 35 nm for historical tests with yields of 0.2, 0.7, 2, and 10 Mt, respectively. This work can be expanded in many different directions to build a more predictive model for fallout formation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Site 300 B-851 Permit: Radiological Assumptions and Source Term - Air Dispersion Modeling for Radiological Dose Assessment

The following modeling assumptions and source term that is provided in the attachments to this document are meant to serve as a guide to the presentation delivered on April 23rd, 2020, to the San Joaquin Air District Permit Services slides. This analysis is in response to the District’s “Project Incompleteness Letter” (Facility Number: N-472 and Project Number: N-1173492) regarding the potential for depleted uranium (DU) to be resuspended from areas of contaminated soil at Site 300 as a result of high explosive (HE) experiments increased to a requested permitted maximum of 1,000 pound detonations with an annual HE throughput not to exceed 7,500 pounds per year. LLNL has taken every step in the radiological health risk concerns in the modeling assumptions and final source term to be at a level of maximum conservativeness. As an example, forty soil samples were taken in the B-851 area (LLNL-AR-738708 – 2018) and assayed for uranium-234, uranium-235, and uranium-238 concentrations. The maximum uranium soil concentrations were used in the assumptions (potential for resuspended dust occurring from detonation experiments) and not the use of median uranium soil concentrations – a more realistic outcome. Additionally, these uranium soil concentrations were considered to be at 100% uptake in the vegetation for prescribed burns; vegetation uptake factors were not used as that would lower the final source term. This level of conservativeness was maintained throughout the modeling assumptions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Soil Sample Workplan in Support of the Site 300 Explosives Waste Treatment Facility Ecological Risk Assessment Pursuant to the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (Part V, Special Condition #14 a-f)

The Department of Toxic Substances Control issued the Final Hazardous Waste Facility Permit to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Site 300 in 2017. As part of the continual process to ensure waste treatment emissions are not impacting ecological receptors, LLNL analyzed soil samples in the vicinity of the Explosive Waste Treatment Facility (EWTF) Burn Units (i.e., Burn Cage and Burn Pan) and the Detonation Pad. Soil samples were analyzed by EPA Solid Waste 846 Methods for furans, explosives, metals, and semi-volatile compounds. In all samples, furans, explosives, and semi-volatile organic compounds were not detected. Metals were detected at concentrations below background levels. This soil sample plan will sample the same four downwind areas of the Burn Units and the same downwind areas of the Detonation, as well as including four new sample locations. The four new locations will be located to the northeast and southwest of the Burn Units and Detonation (as shown in Figure 3). The constituents to be analyzed are in Tables 7 and 8. Perchlorate was not identified as a constituent of concern in the 2007 Soil Sampling Plan. However, for this plan, all soil samples will be analyzed for perchlorate. Nitrate and all CAM17 metals have been added to the sampling plan to comply with DTSC comments received in correspondence dated June 4, 2021. After completion of the sampling event, a soil sample report will be submitted to DTSC in accordance with requirements specified in the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit, Part V, Special Conditions 16 a-f. This proposed soil sampling plan will be fully implemented no later than one year after receiving DTSC approval, in accordance with the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit, Part V, Special Condition 15.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Final Reports of the 2021 Los Alamos National Laboratory Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop

Since 2011, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop has been bringing together a highly talented and diverse group of students every summer. Students work in teams of two, alongside typically two mentors, on research projects reflecting a broad range of topics within computational physics. In addition, students attend a series of lectures on topics within computational physics, facility tours, and networking events. The program lasts ten weeks, with this year’s workshop running from June 7 to August 13. At the end of the summer, students give a final presentation, along with a written report. Those reports are what make up the remaining sections of this document. Admission to the workshop is by a competitive process, with the mentors forming the selection committee. One of the important accomplishments of the workshop has been to create a student pipeline from diverse schools that sometimes are not normally tapped by LANL recruiting. Many workshop students maintain a continuing relationship with LANL, returning as student interns, post-doctoral researchers, and staff members. Additionally, workshop alumni act as ambassadors for LANL. The result is a wider awareness both of LANL as a potential employer, and of the technical work that happens at LANL. This year, the workshop was once again in an off-site, virtual format. Students worked on LANL virtual desktop systems remotely, also accessing LANL HPC resources. In order to facilitate communication, student were given accounts on both Webex, a video teleconferencing platform, and Mattermost, an online team collaboration and chat platform, similar to Slack. Daily communication between students and mentors was primarily on Mattermost, with Webex conferencing as needed. The lectures were all done on Webex. Given the difficulty of the virtual format, and a concern that students might have video teleconferencing burn-out, all lectures were optional this year. In spite of this, the attendance was generally high. Lecturers were asked to try to move to a more high-level, ”What is it?,” format. Once again, the students did a tremendous job. Over the course of ten weeks, they did important research across a staggering array of disciplines. The following pages contain the final report for each team’s research efforts. Enjoy!

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Impulse Noise Sampling at 9965 - Armag

One detonation test was monitored for impulse noise at Thunder Range on November 6, 2020. The TNT equivalency for this shot was 100 lbs. Ground zero for this test was located at an open area of Range 7. The Armag, where MOW were remotely located, was just south of the east end of the TR shock tube The purpose of this sampling event was to characterize the noise attenuation provided by the Armag which will be used as the primary firing location in a future test series. To determine attenuation provided by the Armag, one sound level monitor was placed inside and a second monitor was placed outside the hardened structure at the same distance from ground zero. The Armag was located 1300 feet from ground zero. Essential personnel performing these tests were remotely located inside the Armag and wore hearing protection with a minimum NRR of 23. Members of the Workforce (MOW) who are exposed to noise levels above 140 dBC, regardless of hearing protection worn, are required to be enrolled into the SNL Hearing Conservation Program which includes audiometric testing, online training (HCP100) and wearing hearing protection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact Noise Monitoring for Gelled Water Mitigation Test Series - North Pad

This report represents the 1st shot (in a series of 8) conducted on September 15, 2022. One 10 lb C4 charge (along with ~200g of Potassium Bromide (KBr)) was detonated inside 9920 North Pad Boom Box. Noise sampling was performed at several points on Site 9920 to characterize the noise mitigation provided by the block structure. This data will help inform safe locations for Members of the Workforce (MOWs) to be located during future testing with similar net explosive weights. During the test, all MOW/site visitors were bunkered inside Building 9926/Mobile Firing Control Point (MFCP) to prevent personnel exposure to any hazards associated with the testing

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the approximations underpinning fast nuclear cloud models

Fast nuclear cloud models have been used for many decades to predict cloud rise and growth following a nuclear detonation for both emergency response and debris collections mission planning. We present derivations and discussions of the approximations made by such fast nuclear cloud models in common use. In particular, the models we discuss all fundamentally rely on an empirical entrainment parameter to inexpensively model the cloud rise and growth of a buoyant bubble due to entrainment of an ambient air mass on its surface. We show the particular circumstances under which these models are equivalent as well as apply a virtual mass correction throughout them. Aside from some minor differences in representation and the use of the Boussinesq approximation, these models are all very similar and necessitate the specification of an entrainment parameter to accurately determine the cloud rise.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Samoa Updater: An Application of the Levenberg-Marquardt Method to Update DELFIC Predictions Using Field Measurements

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Forensics Operations (DFO) is a member of the Ground Collections Task Force (GCTF), which is responsible for sample collection of radiological debris for attribution should a nuclear detonation ever occur in the United States. The DFO runs the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Fallout Planning Tool to predict the deposition of fallout from a nuclear detonation. This prediction is refined using the DELFIC Updater tool, which takes ground measurements and adjusts DELFIC inputs to minimize the difference between prediction and observation, yielding improved predictions of fallout in locations both measured and not yet measured. Samoa, a framework for uncertainty analysis and optimization, is used to improve DELFIC predictive fallout modeling. This new capability using Samoa, dubbed “Samoa Updater,” is compared with the current DELFIC Updater, a brute-force sampling approach. Samoa Updater uses the Levenberg– Marquardt (LM) method, a gradient-based nonlinear least squares approach that uses the functional shape of the input space to increase optimization speed. In simulated test cases Samoa Updater yields faster and more accurate solutions than the current Updater.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Scaling and Units of the Elastic Response Term for Rayleigh Waves that is Output by Computer Programs in Seismology (CPS)

We report on the scaling and units of the Rayleigh wave elastic response function A R (ω) that is output from the widely used Computer Programs in Seismology (CPS) to aid in the modeling of ground motion sourced by atmospheric explosions. The program uses mixed units (km, second, km/s, gm/cc) to keep A R (ω) near 10 0 and prevent any numerical underflow or overflow. We compare two models for the response of an elastic half space to the output from CPS. Our application inputs the recommended, mixed unit geological models to determine how researchers must scale this output to obtain physical units for A R (ω) that represents the amplitude scaling for the minimum group velocity (Airy phase) contribution to Rayleigh waves. We determine that a CPS user must scale the output for A R (ω) by 10 -12 (m/km) 2 (g/cc/m 3 /kg) to obtain MKS (meter, kg, second) units and then must multiply this result by the vertical component eigenfunction squared, that is evaluated at the free surface.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Biodefense Knowledge Management System

After the Amerithrax attacks, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recognized the need to link technical scientific information with law enforcement and national security information in the fight against bioterrorism. The Biodefense Knowledge Center (BKC) was formed to provide timely analysis of technical biodefense-related topics to support DHS and its customers in the interagency. The Biodefense Knowledge Management System (BKMS) was created as the backbone for information management within the BKC. It is a scalable, web-based knowledge management system for organizing disparate data sources. By combining information from 35+ data sources, the BKMS provides a searchable repository for technical information including scientific reports, journal articles, news articles, research funding databases, patent databases, and genomic datasets. The current system contains over 58 million documents and 450 million genomic records, and operates at several classification levels.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

In vitro evolution-enabled selection of affinity reagents against bio/chem-threats [Slides]

Affinity reagent are molecules whose function depends on specific recognition of a target. The function can allow therapeutic and/or diagnostic applications. The support CBDP pillars are--Understand: high accuracy/sensitivity, low cost, deployable detection; Protect: pre-event treatment of soldiers; and Mitigate: post-event treatment of soldiers; help identifying the need for specific decontamination protocols. The Los Alamos affinity reagents team (LA-ART) can can obtain affinity reagents to any target, on demand, using a well-established in vitro evolution platform. Recent success stories are shared.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Syntheses and characterization of isotopically labeled 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB)

Synthesis and characterization of chemical analogues of TATB, where specific atoms in the structure have been isotopically substituted, are reported. 15 N, 2 H, and 18 O have replaced the naturally occurring isotope distributions in the amino and/or the nitro attendant sites and 13 C has replaced the carbon in the ring structure. A modified wet-amination method was used to produce the analogues, and the isotopic replacements were performed by selective choice of labeled precursors. Four 15 N-labeled compounds (N replaced in the amino and nitro positions), two deuterium-labeled compounds (hydrogens replaced on the amino groups), and one 13 C-labeled compound (C in the ring substituted) were synthesized of high isotopic and chemical purity. One partially labeled 18 O-labeled compound (O in the nitro position) was a result of incomplete labeling due to exchange reactions during synthesis. The compounds were characterized by various spectroscopic methods – mass spectrometry (MS), solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (SS-NMR), infrared (FTIR), powder x-ray diffraction (PXRD), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), depending upon the substitution. In conclusion, these compounds have been critical to the efforts in understanding the decomposition pathways of TATB when exposed to abnormal thermal environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗