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NASA NTRS1988

Use of VAS data to diagnose the mesoscale environment of convective storms

The utility of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) retrieval datasets for mesoscale analysis is explored. A detailed mesoscale air mass analysis method is presented in which VAS soundings, satellite imagery, and conventional surface data are used to diagnose mesoscale differences in air mass character. Comparisons are made with radiosonde observations of the same air mass differences. A mesoscale air mass analysis is presented with a discussion of the role that the various air masses play in subsequent convective development. In a second technique, several VAS-derived thermodynamic parameters, such as positive and negative buoyant energy, are shown to be well suited to operational forecasting of convective storm development and evolution. The derivation of these parameters and their applications in forecasting are illustrated.

Zehr, Raymond M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mesoscale disturbances in the tropical stratosphere excited by convection - Observations and effects on the stratospheric momentum budget

Aircraft temperature and pressure measurements as well as satellite imagery are used to establish the amplitudes and the space and time scale of potential temperature disturbances over convective systems. A conceptual model is proposed for the generation of mesoscale gravity waves by convection. The momentum forcing that a reasonable distribution of convection might exert on the tropical stratosphere through convectively excited mesoscale gravity waves of the observed amplitudes is estimated. Aircraft measurements show that presence of mesoscale disturbances in the lower stratospheric temperature, disturbances that appear to be associated with underlying convection. If the disturbances are convectively excited mesoscale gravity waves, their amplitude is sufficient that their breakdown in the upper stratosphere will exert a zonal force comparable to but probably smaller than the planetary-scale Kelvin waves.

Pfister, Leonhard↗

NASA NTRS1993

Examples of data assimilation in mesoscale models

The keynote address was the problem of physical initialization of mesoscale models. The classic purpose of physical or diabatic initialization is to reduce or eliminate the spin-up error caused by the lack, at the initial time, of the fully developed vertical circulations required to support regions of large rainfall rates. However, even if a model has no spin-up problem, imposition of observed moisture and heating rate information during assimilation can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, especially early in the forecast. The two key issues in physical initialization are the choice of assimilating technique and sources of hydrologic/hydrometeor data. Another example of data assimilation in mesoscale models was presented in a series of meso-beta scale model experiments with and 11 km version of the MASS model designed to investigate the sensitivity of convective initiation forced by thermally direct circulations resulting from differential surface heating to four dimensional assimilation of surface and radar data. The results of these simulations underscore the need to accurately initialize and simulate grid and sub-grid scale clouds in meso- beta scale models. The status of the application of the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model by the NOAA Forecast Systems Lab for producing real-time forecasts with 10-60 km mesh resolutions over (4000 km)(exp 2) domains for use by the aviation community was reported. Either MAPS or LAPS model data are used to initialize the RAMS model on a 12-h cycle. The use of MAPS (Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) model was discussed. Also discussed was the mesobeta-scale data assimilation using a triply-nested nonhydrostatic version of the MM5 model.

Carr, Fred↗

NASA NTRS1994

Mesoscale roughness of Venus

The global distribution of multi-kilometer (approx. 9 km) length scale 'roughness' (hereafter mesoscale roughness or MR) on Venus can be estimated from the Magellan global altimetry dataset (GxDR) and then compared with MR data derived for Earth from 5' ETOP5 data and for Mars (from USGS Mars DTM dataset). The mesoscale roughness parameter (MR) represents the RMS variance in meters of the actual planetary surface topography relative to the best fitting tangent plane defined on the basis of a 3x3 pixel sliding window. The best-fit plane was computed using a least-squares solution which minimizes delta H, the sum of the squares of the differences between the 9 local elevation values (H(sub i)), and the elevation of best-fit plane at the same grid location. Using the best-fit plane and delta H, we have computed the RMS 'roughness' var(delta R), where this parameter is always minimized on the basis of its calculation using least squares. We have called this 'ruggedness' parameter the Mesoscale Roughness (MR) because it is directly related to the high-frequency variance of topography after mesoscale slopes and tilts (i.e., for Venus, the baseline over which MR is computed (dx) is approx. 8.8 km and dx for Earth is approx. 9.3 km) are removed. As such, MR represents the degree to which a planetary surface is more rugged than approximately 10 km scale facets or tilts. It should not be confused with the radar 'RMS Roughness' parameter computed at 0.1 to 10 m length scales on the basis of the Magellan radar altimeter echo. We will use our MR parameter to investigate the global ruggedness properties of Venus as they relate to geological provinces and in comparison with the spatial pattern of MR for Earth and Mars.

Garvin, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Workstation-Based Real-Time Mesoscale Modeling Designed for Weather Support to Operations at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

This paper describes the capabilities and operational utility of a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) that has been developed to support operational weather forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The implementation of local, mesoscale modeling systems at KSC/CCAS is designed to provide detailed short-range (less than 24 h) forecasts of winds, clouds, and hazardous weather such as thunderstorms. Short-range forecasting is a challenge for daily operations, and manned and unmanned launches since KSC/CCAS is located in central Florida where the weather during the warm season is dominated by mesoscale circulations like the sea breeze. For this application, MASS has been modified to run on a Stardent 3000 workstation. Workstation-based, real-time numerical modeling requires a compromise between the requirement to run the system fast enough so that the output can be used before expiration balanced against the desire to improve the simulations by increasing resolution and using more detailed physical parameterizations. It is now feasible to run high-resolution mesoscale models such as MASS on local workstations to provide timely forecasts at a fraction of the cost required to run these models on mainframe supercomputers. MASS has been running in the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) at KSC/CCAS since January 1994 for the purpose of system evaluation. In March 1995, the AMU began sending real-time MASS output to the forecasters and meteorologists at CCAS, Spaceflight Meteorology Group (Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas), and the National Weather Service (Melbourne, Florida). However, MASS is not yet an operational system. The final decision whether to transition MASS for operational use will depend on a combination of forecaster feedback, the AMU's final evaluation results, and the life-cycle costs of the operational system.

Manobianco, John↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Impact of TRMM Data on Numerical Forecast of Mesoscale Systems

The impact of surface rainfall data derived from the TRMM Microwave Image (TMI) on the numerical forecast of mesoscale systems is evaluated. A series of numerical experiments are performed that assimilate TMI rainfall data into the Penn State University/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. Experiments are conducted incorporating TMI rainfall data into the mesoscale model to improve hurricane initialization. It is found that assimilation of rainfall data into the model is beneficial in producing a more realistic eye and rain bands and also helps to improve the intensity forecast for the hurricane. Further 4DVAR experiments are performed on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Detailed results and related issues will be presented during the conference.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗

NASA NTRS2003

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in th~s direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Impact of Microphysics on Intensity and Structure of Hurricanes and Mesoscale Convective Systems

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Purdue Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WRF to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on precipitation processes associated hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems developed at different geographic locations [Oklahoma (IHOP), Louisiana (Hurricane Katrina), Canada (C3VP - snow events), Washington (fire storm), India (Monsoon), Taiwan (TiMREX - terrain)]. We will determine the microphysical schemes for good simulated convective systems in these geographic locations. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2003

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

Manobianco, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Characteristics of Mesoscale Organization in WRF Simulations of Convection during TWP-ICE

Compared to satellite-derived heating profiles, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) convective heating is too deep and its stratiform upper-level heating is too weak. This deficiency highlights the need for GCMs to parameterize the mesoscale organization of convection. Cloud-resolving model simulations of convection near Darwin, Australia, in weak wind shear environments of different humidities are used to characterize mesoscale organization processes and to provide parameterization guidance. Downdraft cold pools appear to stimulate further deep convection both through their effect on eddy size and vertical velocity. Anomalously humid air surrounds updrafts, reducing the efficacy of entrainment. Recovery of cold pool properties to ambient conditions over 5-6 h proceeds differently over land and ocean. Over ocean increased surface fluxes restore the cold pool to prestorm conditions. Over land surface fluxes are suppressed in the cold pool region; temperature decreases and humidity increases, and both then remain nearly constant, while the undisturbed environment cools diurnally. The upper-troposphere stratiform rain region area lags convection by 5-6 h under humid active monsoon conditions but by only 1-2 h during drier break periods, suggesting that mesoscale organization is more readily sustained in a humid environment. Stratiform region hydrometeor mixing ratio lags convection by 0-2 h, suggesting that it is strongly influenced by detrainment from convective updrafts. Small stratiform region temperature anomalies suggest that a mesoscale updraft parameterization initialized with properties of buoyant detrained air and evolving to a balance between diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling might be a plausible approach for GCMs.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Development of a Mesoscale Finite Element Constitutive Model for Fiber Kinking

A mesoscale finite element material model is proposed to analyze structures that fail by the fiber kinking damage mode. To evaluate the assumptions of the mesoscale model, the results were compared with those of a high-fidelity micromechanical model. A direct comparison between the two models shows remarkable correlation, indicating that the key features of the fiber kinking phenomenon are appropriately accounted for in the mesoscale model. The mesoscale model is applied to structural analysis cases to demonstrate the capabilities of the model. A verification study is conducted with an unnotched compression specimen and preliminary validation is demonstrated with a notched compression specimen. The results show that the model is successful at representing the kinematics of fiber kinking while at the same time highlighting the need for further verification and validation.

Bergan, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Three-Dimensional, Space-Dependent Mesoscale Diffusivity: Derivation and Implications

Recently, we presented a parameterization of an arbitrary tracer 3D mesoscale flux that describes both diabatic and adiabatic regimes without using arbitrary tapering functions. However, we did not parameterize the mesoscale diffusivity, which is the subject of this work. A key difference between the present and previous diffusivity parameterizations is that in the latter, the two main ingredients, mesoscale drift velocity and eddy kinetic energy, were not parameterized but determined using present data, which deprives the models of predictive power. Since winds, stratification, etc., are predicted to change in the future, use of these parameterizations to study future climate scenarios becomes questionable. In this work, we parameterize drift velocity and eddy kinetic energy (vertical–horizontal components), which we first assess with data [WOCE, TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), and North Atlantic Tracer Release Experiment (NATRE)] and then use in a coarse-resolution stand-alone ocean code under Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment I (CORE-I) forcing. We present results for the global ocean temperature and salinity, Atlantic overturning circulation, meridional heat transport, and Drake Passage transport, which we compare with several previous studies. The temperature drift is less than that of five of seven previous OGCMs, and the salinity drift is among the smallest in those studies. The predicted winter Antarctic Circumpolar Current mixed layer depths (MLDs) are in good agreement with the data. Predicting the correct MLD is important in climate studies since models that predict very deep mixed layers transfer more of the radiative perturbation to the deep ocean, reducing surface warming (and vice versa).

Eddies; Mesoscale processes; Mixing; Ocean models;↗

NASA NTRS1976

The evolution of cumulonimbus systems in relation to low-level thermally-driven mesoscale systems

The importance of extra-storm scale mesoscale systems to the genesis and propagation of cumulonimbus systems is discussed, with the primary role of the mesoscale systems viewed as the initiator of cumulonimbus convection. It is demonstrated that thermally driven mesoscale systems such as the Florida sea breeze and Colorado ridge/valley circulations play an important role in the genesis, organization, and intensity of cumulonimbus systems. In the case of the Colorado ridge/valley circulation, however, the importance of the circulation to the genesis and propagation of severe storm systems over the Western Great Plains still remains to be demonstrated.

Cotton, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Deriving mesoscale temperature and moisture fields from satellite radiance measurements over the United States

The ability to provide mesoscale temperature and moisture fields from operational satellite infrared sounding radiances over the United States is explored. High-resolution sounding information for mesoscale analysis and forecasting is shown to be obtainable in mostly clear areas. An iterative retrieval algorithm applied to NOAA-VTPR radiances uses a mean radiosonde sounding as a best initial-guess profile. Temperature soundings are then retrieved at a horizontal resolution of about 70 km, as is an indication of the precipitable water content of the vertical sounding columns. Derived temperature values may be biased in general by the initial-guess sounding or in certain areas by the cloud correction technique, but the resulting relative temperature changes across the field when not contaminated by clouds will be useful for mesoscale forecasting and models. The derived moisture, affected only by high clouds, proves to be reliable to within 0.5 cm of precipitable water and contains valuable horizontal information. Present-day applications from polar-orbiting satellites as well as possibilities from upcoming temperature and moisture sounders on geostationary satellites are noted.

Hillger, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Release of potential instability by mesoscale triggering - An objective model simulation

The effects of mesoscale triggering on organized nonsevere convective cloud systems in the High Plains are considered. Two experiments were conducted to determine if a one-dimensional quasi-time dependent model could (1) detect soundings which were sensitive to mesoscale triggering, and (2) discriminate between cases which had mesoscale organized convection and those with no organized convection. The MESOCU model was used to analyze the available potential instability and thermodynamic potential for cloud growth. It is noted that lifting is a key factor in the release of available potential instability on the High Plains.

Matthews, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Mesoscale aspects of convective storms

The structure, evolution and mechanisms of mesoscale convective disturbances are reviewed and observation techniques for "nowcasting" their nature are discussed. A generalized mesometeorological scale is given, classifying both low and high pressure systems. Mesoscale storms are shown often to induce strong winds, but their wind speeds are significantly less than those accompanied by submesoscale disturbances, such as tornadoes, downbursts, and microbursts. Mesoscale convective complexes, severe storm wakes, and flash floods are considered. The understanding of the evolution of supercells is essential for improving nowcasting capabilities and a very accurate combination of radar and satellite measurements is required.

Fujita, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

An intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm over mountainous terrain. I - Evolution of the storm-initiating mesoscale circulation

The evolution of mesoscale systems that eventually lead to the formation of large quasi-steady storm systems is investigated. The morphological and turbulent structure of the quasi-steady storm is described. Data obtained during the South Park Area Cumulus Experiment from surface meteorological stations, rawinsondes and tethered balloons, conventional and Doppler radars, powered aircraft, and satellites, indicate that on July 19, 1977, a north-south oriented line of intense convective cells formed and remained within South Park. Elevated surface heating created a region of low-level convergence, importing Pacific moisture from west of the Rockies. The mesoscale thunderstorm line formed over this convergence zone, and a single large convective cell was observed to grow on the southern end of the mesoscale line, exhibiting supercell characteristics and substantial modifications of the environmental flow.

Cotton, W. R.↗