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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal well testing pressure prediction by using a hybrid transformer model system: FORGE well use case

Geothermal has huge potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of sustainable energy economy, given its capability to provide consistent baseload power to the electric grid. Injection tests are crucial in geothermal energy system as they naturally help to evaluate reservoir properties, understand fluid flow and even enhance reservoir performance. In this research, we developed a hybrid model system that integrates machine learning (ML) regression, a physics-based mathematical model, and transformer deep learning. Trained and validated using FORGE injection test dataset, this system can forecast the pressure variations both upward and downward over time. The pressure prediction achieved prediction accuracy within 3-6% variance of true pressure values. The system can significantly save time and reduce costs by testing only a few cycles and then using model predictions for further analysis, instead of conducting additional real injection cycle tests. The developed model system also holds promise for designing injection test processes and maintaining well production in geothermal energy. Presented at the IMAGE ‘25 Conference led by Shell.

FORGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational multiphysics modeling of radioactive aerosol deposition in diverse human respiratory tract geometries

The evaluation of aerosol exposure relies on generic mathematical models that assume uniform particle deposition profiles over the human respiratory tract and do not account for subject-specific characteristics. Here we introduce a hybrid-automated computational workflow that generates personalized particle deposition profiles in 3D reconstructed human airways from computed tomography scans using Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics simulations. This is the first large-scale study to consider realistic airways variability, where 380 lower and 40 upper human respiratory tract 3D geometries are reconstructed and parameterized. The data is clustered into nine groups using random forest regression. Computational fluid and particle dynamics simulations are conducted on these representative geometries using a realistic heavy-breathing respiratory cycle and radioactive iodine-131 as a source term. Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations are performed to obtain detailed energy deposition maps. Our findings emphasize the importance of personalized studies, as minor respiratory tract variations notably influence deposition patterns rather than global parameters of the lower airways, observing more than 30% variance in the mass deposition fraction.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic data fusion and physics-informed machine learning: A new paradigm for modeling under uncertainty, and its application to accelerating the discovery of new materials

In this report we summarize the work conducted by PI Perdikaris and his group under this Early Career project DE–SC0019116 during the period of 09/01/2018 – 08/31/2023. The central aim of the work was to introduce a new paradigm for scientific data analysis that can seamlessly synthesize rigorous mathematical modeling with data of variable fidelity (e.g., measurements at multiple scales/resolutions or predictions of variable fidelity models) and multiple modalities (e.g., images, time–series, or scattered measurements). The setting we are interested in involves complex systems that are partially observed and whose dynamical behavior could be hard to model or totally unknown. The inherent uncertainty associated with this setting necessitates a departure from the classical deterministic realm of modeling and scientific computation, and, consequently, our main building blocks can no longer be crisp deterministic numbers and governing laws, but instead we must operate with probabilistic models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating the Design of Desalination Technologies into Produced Water Network Optimization

The oil and gas energy sector uses billions of gallons of water for hydraulic fracturing each year to extract oil and gas. The water injected into the ground for fracturing along with naturally occurring formation water from oil wells surfaces back in the form of produced water. Produced water can contain high concentrations of total dissolved solids and is unfit for reuse outside the oil and gas industry without desalination. In semi-arid shale plays, produced water desalination for beneficial reuse could play a crucial role in alleviating water shortages and addressing extreme drought conditions. In this poster we co-optimize the design and operation of desalination technologies along with operational decisions across produced water networks. A multi-period produced water network model with simplified split-fraction-based desalination nodes is developed. Rigorous steady-state desalination mathematical models based on mechanical vapor recompression are developed and embedded at the desalination sites in the network model. An optimal common design across all periods is ensured using global capacity constraints. The solution approach is demonstrated for multi-period planning problems on networks from the PARETO open-source library. Model formulation and challenges associated with scalability are discussed.

Naik, Sakshi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating the Design of Desalination Technologies into Produced Water Network Optimization

The oil and gas energy sector uses billions of gallons of water for hydraulic fracturing each year to extract oil and gas. The water injected into the ground for fracturing along with naturally occur-ring formation water from the oil wells surfaces back in the form of produced water. Produced water can contain high concentrations of total dissolved solids and is unfit for reuse outside the oil and gas industry without desalination. In semi-arid shale plays, produced water desalination for beneficial reuse could play a crucial role in alleviating water shortages and addressing extreme drought conditions. In this paper we co-optimize the design and operation of desalination technologies along with operational decisions across produced water networks. A multi-period produced water network model with simplified split-fraction-based desalination nodes is developed. Rigorous steady-state desalination mathematical models based on mechanical vapor recompression are developed and embedded at the desalination sites in the network model. An optimal common design is ensured across all periods using global capacity constraints. The solution approach is demonstrated for multi-period planning problems on networks from the PARETO open-source library. Model formulation and challenges associated with scalability are discussed.

Naik, Sakshi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measure this, not that: Optimizing the cost and model-based information content of measurements

Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) is a powerful framework for selecting and calibrating science-based mathematical models from data. Here, this work extends popular MBDoE workflows by proposing a convex mixed integer (non)linear programming (MINLP) to optimize the selection of measurements. The solver MindtPy is modified to support calculating the D-optimality objective and its gradient via an external package, scipy, using the grey-box module in Pyomo. The new approach is demonstrated in two case studies: estimating highly correlated kinetics from a batch reactor and estimating transport parameters in a large-scale rotary packed bed for CO 2 capture. Both case studies show how examining the Pareto optimal trade-offs between information content measured by A- and D-optimality versus measurement budget offers practical guidance for selecting measurements for scientific experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Specificity and tunability of efflux pumps: A new role for the proton gradient?

Efflux pumps that transport antibacterial drugs out of bacterial cells have broad specificity, commonly leading to broad spectrum resistance and limiting treatment strategies for infections. It remains unclear how efflux pumps can maintain this broad spectrum specificity to diverse drug molecules while limiting the efflux of other cytoplasmic content. We have investigated the origins of this broad specificity using theoretical models informed by the experimentally determined structural and kinetic properties of efflux pumps. We developed a set of mathematical models describing operation of efflux pumps as a discrete cyclic stochastic process across a network of states characterizing pump conformations and the presence/absence of bound ligands and protons. These include a minimal three-state model that lends itself to clear analytic calculations as well as a five-state model that relaxes some of the simpler model’s most strict assumptions. We found that the pump specificity is determined not solely by the drug affinity to the pump–as is commonly assumed–but it is also directly affected by the periplasmic pH and the transmembrane potential. Therefore, changes to the proton concentration gradient and voltage drop across the membrane can influence how effective the pump is at extruding a particular drug molecule. Furthermore, we found that while both the proton concentration gradient across the membrane and the transmembrane potential contribute to the thermodynamic force driving the pump, their effects on the efflux enter not strictly in a combined proton motive force. Rather, they have two distinguishable effects on the overall throughput. These results highlight the unexpected effects of thermodynamic driving forces out of equilibrium and illustrate how efflux pump structure and function are conducive to the emergence of multidrug resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A system identification approach for non-intrusive reduced order modeling of radiation-induced photocurrents

In this study, development of compact photocurrent models is currently dominated by analytical techniques that rely on physical assumptions to render the governing equations solvable in a closed form. Violation of these assumptions can reduce the accuracy of the models and/or limit their scope. In this paper we show that system identification of nonlinear state-space systems can serve as an alternative numerical basis for non-intrusive reduced order modeling of photocurrent effects. To that end we develop a compact gray box photocurrent model (GBPM) by using a state-space representation with a low-dimensional latent state equation that mimics a mathematical model for the response of an idealized class of devices to ionizing radiation. In so doing we obtain a model that learns the dynamics of a quantity of interest directly from its measurements without requiring snapshots of the internal device state or its discretized model, and can be inferred from very small data sets. To demonstrate the approach we train the GBPM using a small experimental data set for a Z5236 Zener diode and a small synthetic data set obtained by simulating a synthetic pn-junction device. We then compare the GBPMs with black box models trained on the same data and show that performance of the latter is limited by the size of the data set, while the former are able to achieve excellent performance in both the reproductive and the predictive regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial modeling algorithms for reactions and transport in biological cells

Biological cells rely on precise spatiotemporal coordination of biochemical reactions to control their functions. Such cell signaling networks have been a common focus for mathematical models, but they remain challenging to simulate, particularly in realistic cell geometries. Here we present Spatial Modeling Algorithms for Reactions and Transport (SMART), a software package that takes in high-level user specifications about cell signaling networks and then assembles and solves the associated mathematical systems. SMART uses state-of-the-art finite element analysis, via the FEniCS Project software, to efficiently and accurately resolve cell signaling events over discretized cellular and subcellular geometries. We demonstrate its application to several different biological systems, including yes-associated protein (YAP)/PDZ-binding motif (TAZ) mechanotransduction, calcium signaling in neurons and cardiomyocytes, and ATP generation in mitochondria. Throughout, we utilize experimentally derived realistic cellular geometries represented by well-conditioned tetrahedral meshes. These scenarios demonstrate the applicability, flexibility, accuracy and efficiency of SMART across a range of temporal and spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Dynamics of Reactive Fronts in the Subsurface

Understanding and predicting flow and reactive transport in rocks (i.e. geologic porous media) is critical to many technologies at the heart of the energy transition, including CO 2 sequestration and H2 storage. However, accurate modeling and prediction of these systems is very complex because physico-chemical processes that occur at very small spatial scales, i.e. in the pores of the rocks, can dramatically control the system performance at the field scale (km). For example, precipitation reactions at the pore-scale can lead to large permeability changes at the field scale and dramatically alter the migration of stored gases. Properly accounting for multi-scale coupling effects is critical to achieve predictivity and confidence in model outputs, which then can guide design and optimization at the system-scale. This can be achieved through the development of rigorous mathematical models that can appropriately account for fine-scale effects at the large scale. The final report of the Early Career award DE-SC0019075 “Multiscale dynamics of reactive fronts in the subsurface” summarizes the mathematical, numerical and experimental advancements to study and predict reactive transport in geologic porous media across scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical modeling of hepatitis C acute infection in liver-humanized mice support pre-clinical assessment of candidate viruses for controlled-human-infection studies

Designing and carrying out a controlled human infection (CHI) model for hepatitis C virus (HCV) is critical for vaccine development. However, key considerations for a CHI model protocol include understanding of the earliest viral-host kinetic events during the acute phase and susceptibility of the viral isolate under consideration for use in the CHI model to antiviral treatment before any infections in human volunteers can take place. Humanized mouse models lack adaptive immune responses but provide a unique opportunity to obtain quantitative understanding of early HCV kinetics and develop mathematical models to further understand viral and innate immune response dynamics during acute HCV infection. We show that the models reproduce the measured HCV kinetics in humanized mice, which are consistent with early acute HCV-host dynamics in immunocompetent chimpanzees. Our findings suggest that humanized mice are well-suited to support development of a CHI model. In-silico and in-vivo modeling estimates provide a starting point to characterize candidate viruses for testing in CHI model studies.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opportunities in multiscale modeling of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as Zika, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever virus, represent a growing public health concern due to their widespread distribution and the severe diseases they cause. These viruses are difficult to control as climate change and urbanization help mosquitoes expand into new areas, increasing the risk of outbreaks. Mathematical models play a key role in understanding their spread, providing insights at every level—from how the virus multiplies inside cells to how it circulates through entire populations. This review examines various approaches used in modeling arboviruses, including microscale models that focus on cellular and molecular dynamics, mesoscale models that address within-host processes, and macroscale models that capture population-level transmission. We briefly summarize the methodology used for models at each scale, which primarily consists of sets of differential equations with parameters that represent physical rates of change for different subprocesses. We particularly highlight how temperature affects virus transmission, which is key to understanding the impact of climate change. We also show how multiscale models can connect viral replication, immune response, and the spread of infection at a larger scale. This is essential for developing better vaccines and treatments, evaluating disease control measures, predicting the impact of climate change, and improving public health responses to outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of pore dilation in molecular transport through the nuclear pore complex: Insights from polymer scaling theory

The nuclear pore complex (NPC), a channel within the nuclear envelope filled with intrinsically disordered proteins, regulates the transport of macromolecules between the nucleus and the cytoplasm. Recent studies have highlighted the NPC’s ability to adjust its diameter in response to the membrane tension, underscoring the importance of exploring how variations in pore size influence molecular transport through the NPC. In this study, we investigated the relationship between pore size and transport rate and proposed a mathematical model describing this connection. We began by theoretically analyzing how the pore size scales with the characteristic dimensions of the mesh-like structure within the pore. By introducing key assumptions about how the meshwork structure influences molecular diffusion, we derived a mathematical expression for the transport rate based on the size of the pore and the transported molecules. To validate our model, we conducted Brownian dynamics simulations using a coarse-grained representation of the NPC. These simulations, performed across a range of pore sizes, demonstrated strong agreement with our model’s predictions, confirming its accuracy and applicability. Our model is specifically tailored for small-to-medium-sized molecules, approximately 5 nanometers in size, making it relevant to a wide range of transcription factors and signaling molecules. It also extends to molecules with weak and transient interactions with FG-Nups, such as importin-β. By presenting this model formula, our study offers a quantitative framework for analyzing the effects of pore dilation on nucleocytoplasmic transport.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning Physically Interpretable Atmospheric Models From Data With WSINDy

The multiscale and turbulent nature of Earth's atmosphere has historically rendered accurate weather modeling a hard problem. Recently, there has been an explosion of interest surrounding data-driven approaches to weather modeling, which in many cases show improved forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency when compared to traditional methods. However, many of the current data-driven approaches employ highly parameterized neural networks, often resulting in uninterpretable models and limited gains in scientific understanding. In this work, we address the interpretability problem by explicitly discovering partial differential equations governing atmospheric phenomena, identifying symbolic mathematical models with direct physical interpretations. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, in particular, the weak-form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (WSINDy) algorithm can learn effective atmospheric models from both simulated and assimilated data. Our approach adapts the standard WSINDy algorithm to work with high-dimensional fluid data of arbitrary spatial dimension.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multiscale model of immune surveillance in micrometastases gives insights on cancer patient digital twins

Abstract Metastasis is the leading cause of death in patients with cancer, driving considerable scientific and clinical interest in immunosurveillance of micrometastases. We investigated this process by creating a multiscale mathematical model to study the interactions between the immune system and the progression of micrometastases in general epithelial tissue. We analyzed the parameter space of the model using high-throughput computing resources to generate over 100,000 virtual patient trajectories. We demonstrated that the model could recapitulate a wide variety of virtual patient trajectories, including uncontrolled growth, partial response, and complete immune response to tumor growth. We classified the virtual patients and identified key patient parameters with the greatest effect on the simulated immunosurveillance. We highlight the lessons derived from this analysis and their impact on the nascent field of cancer patient digital twins (CPDTs). While CPDTs could enable clinicians to systematically dissect the complexity of cancer in each individual patient and inform treatment choices, our work shows that key challenges remain before we can reach this vision. In particular, we show that there remain considerable uncertainties in immune responses, unreliable patient stratification, and unpredictable personalized treatment. Nonetheless, we also show that in spite of these challenges, patient-specific models suggest strategies to increase control of clinically undetectable micrometastases even without complete parameter certainty.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Open-source simulation platform for air source heat pump integrated with thermal energy storage

Here, this article introduces a modular simulation platform for assessing thermal energy storage (TES) integrated with air source heat pumps (ASHP). The Python platform is an open-source library that includes classes for modeling air-air and air-water heat pumps, TES devices, and the heating load of residential buildings. To validate the ASHP model, the study utilized experimental data obtained from a commercial heat pump evaluated at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results indicate a mean deviation of 0.7% for COP across the operating range, with a maximum relative deviation of 12.6%. In terms of system heating capacity, the model had an average deviation of 4.3% compared to experimental results, with a maximum deviation of 8.2%. Three classes were implemented for modeling distinct types of TES devices: a generic TES based on energy balances, a sensible isothermal water tank, and a stratified water tank. Details of the mathematical models are provided, along with their respective strengths and limitations. An example is provided showcasing the integration of a residential 10 kWh thermal storage unit with an ASHP operating in Denver, CO. The comparison of two different discharge criteria for the TES unit highlights the importance of control strategies in the system performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanical, Electrochemical & Thermal Modeling of Electric Vehicle Batteries for Crash Simulation (CRADA CRD-19-00811 Final Report)

Under the proposed effort in partnership with Hyundai Motor Company (HMC), the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) will cooperate with HMC to develop mathematical models for battery cells and modules for simulating abuse response in batteries subject to the type of mechanical crushing that can occur in a full motor vehicle crash.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale Modeling and Experimental Insights into High-Temperature Soil Biodegradation Dynamics of Semi-Crystalline Poly(Lactic Acid) Nonwoven Fabrics

This study investigates the biodegradation of semi-crystalline poly(lactic acid) (PLA) nonwovens (NWs) in soil at 58 °C using both experimental and mathematical modeling approaches. The model utilizes a system of parabolic diffusion-reaction partial differential equations (PDEs) to elucidate chemical transformations over time and in space. It accounts for phenomena such as the diffusion of water and lactic acid monomers through the polymer matrix and into the surrounding soil, along with their microbial breakdown. It also accounts for the initial PLA crystallinity and predicts its evolution in time. The model is solved numerically for a single filament, and the results were used to shed light on PLA NW transformations observed in soil over a 180-day incubation period. Various characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and Raman spectroscopy, were employed to assess morphological changes, crystallinity, and molecular changes in the NWs throughout the experiment. By comparing the experimental data with the model predictions, the hydrolysis rate coefficient was found to be 3.37 × 10 -7 s -1 , while the rate of microbial degradation of lactic acid monomers was faster, of the order of 9.63 × 10 -7 s -1 . The findings highlight the significant role of crystallinity in the biodegradation process. The PLA degradation ceases when no amorphous material remains, and the crystallinity reaches 0.8, as observed in the experiments by day 120. Furthermore, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of PLA biodegradation dynamics and offers insights for effectively managing biodegradable materials in environmental settings.

Diffusion−reaction modeling↗