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DOE OSTI2018

A new approach to modeling temperature-related mortality: Non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input

Highlights: • NARX models are established in other environmental research, but are unused in temperature-related mortality research. • NARX models do not assume any particular shape to the temperature-mortality association. • NARX models are cross-validated and are easily modified to take on real-time, multi-step-ahead predictions and hindcasts. • Year-round, daily mortality in 41 different US cities was modeled using an ensemble of NARX models in each location. • Models show skill everywhere. Results vary spatially and seasonally, improving upon a persistence model by 17% points. • When compared with distributed lag non-linear models, the output time series are largely similar Temperature-mortality relationships are nonlinear, time-lagged, and can vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, all of which limits the applicability of simple regression models in describing these associations. This research demonstrates the utility of an alternative method for modeling such complex relationships that has gained recent traction in other environmental fields: nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models). All-cause mortality data and multiple temperature-based data sets were gathered from 41 different US cities, for the period 1975–2010, and subjected to ensemble NARX modeling. Models generally performed better in larger cities and during the winter season. Across the US, median absolute percentage errors were 10% (ranging from 4% to 15% in various cities), the average improvement in the r-squared over that of a simple persistence model was 17% (6–24%), and the hit rate for modeling spike days in mortality (>80th percentile) was 54% (34–71%). Mortality responded acutely to hot summer days, peaking at 0–2 days of lag before dropping precipitously, and there was an extended mortality response to cold winter days, peaking at 2–4 days of lag and dropping slowly and continuing for multiple weeks. Spring and autumn showed both of the aforementioned temperature-mortality relationships, but generally to a lesser magnitude than what was seen in summer or winter. When compared to distributed lag nonlinear models, NARX model output was nearly identical. These results highlight the applicability of NARX models for use in modeling complex and time-dependent relationships for various applications in epidemiology and environmental sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

deadtrees.earth — An open-access and interactive database for centimeter-scale aerial imagery to uncover global tree mortality dynamics

Excessive tree mortality is a global concern and remains poorly understood as it is a complex phenomenon. We lack global and temporally continuous coverage on tree mortality data. Ground-based observations on tree mortality, e.g., derived from national inventories, are very sparse, and may not be standardized or spatially explicit. Earth observation data, combined with supervised machine learning, offer a promising approach to map overstory tree mortality in a consistent manner over space and time. However, global-scale machine learning requires broad training data covering a wide range of environmental settings and forest types. Low altitude observation platforms (e.g., drones or airplanes) provide a cost-effective source of training data by capturing high-resolution orthophotos of overstory tree mortality events at centimeter-scale resolution. Here, we introduce deadtrees.earth, an open-access platform hosting more than two thousand centimeter-resolution orthophotos, covering more than 1,000,000 ha, of which more than 58,000 ha are manually annotated with live/dead tree classifications. This community-sourced and rigorously curated dataset can serve as a comprehensive reference dataset to uncover tree mortality patterns from local to global scales using space-based Earth observation data and machine learning models. This will provide the basis to attribute tree mortality patterns to environmental changes or project tree mortality dynamics to the future. The open nature of deadtrees.earth, together with its curation of high-quality, spatially representative, and ecologically diverse data will continuously increase our capacity to uncover and understand tree mortality dynamics.

Citizen science↗

DOE OSTI2022

Linking remotely sensed ecosystem resilience with forest mortality across the continental United States

Episodes of forest mortality have been observed worldwide associated with climate change, impacting species composition and ecosystem services such as water resources and carbon sequestration. Yet our ability to predict forest mortality remains limited, especially across large scales. Time series of satellite imagery has been used to document ecosystem resilience globally, but it is not clear how well remotely sensed resilience can inform the prediction of forest mortality across continental, multi-biome scales. Here, we leverage forest inventories across the continental United States to systematically assess the potential of ecosystem resilience derived using different data sets and methods to predict forest mortality. Here we found high resilience was associated with low mortality in eastern forests but was associated with high mortality in western regions. The unexpected resilience–mortality relation in western United States may be due to several factors including plant trait acclimation, insect population dynamics, or resource competition. Overall, our results not only supported the opportunity to use remotely sensed ecosystem resilience to predict forest mortality but also highlighted that ecological factors may have crucial influences because they can reverse the sign of the resilience–mortality relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Detecting Early Warning Signals of Tree Mortality in Boreal North America Using Multiscale Satellite Data

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems.

heat↗

DOE OSTI2018

Estimating mortality rates among passerines caught for ringing with mist nets using data from previously ringed birds

Abstract Mist netting is the most commonly used method for catching birds for scientific ringing, but despite decades of use, there have been few attempts to quantify the associated potential risks to the individuals caught. Any incidence of mortality through capture and handling, however low, is of potential ethical concern and may also introduce biases into the data. We estimate the mortality rate associated with capture of previously ringed (recaptured) passerines from the British and Irish Ringing Scheme (c. 1.5 million records) caught using mist nets. The importance of species, age, mass, month, time, previous captures, and an index of predator occurrence was tested using generalized linear mixed‐effects models. The average mortality rate was 0.0011, most of which was reported to occur before the individuals had been extracted from the nets (c. 70% of incidents). Juveniles appeared to be at higher risk and the incidence of predation from mist nets was seasonal, with increased risk during the winter. Species differed in their reported mortality rates with the apparent risk being greatest for Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita (0.0029) and Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula (0.0027). To improve our understanding (and hence minimize risk in future), we recommend collecting more complete data on incidences of mortality, and also injuries; exercising increased care when the species we have identified as being at greater risk are likely to be captured, and ensuring there are robust procedures for the checking of nets (as most reported incidents of mortality occur before handling). We also recommend that all Ringing Schemes should collate and make available data on capture‐related mortality. Overall rates of mortality associated with capture, although, were low and support the use of mist netting as a safe capture technique, without undue bias from mortality, when used by appropriately trained individuals.

Clewley, Gary D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ecosystem-Level Energy and Water Budgets Are Resilient to Canopy Mortality in Sparse Semiarid Biomes

Climate-driven woody vegetation mortality is a defining feature of semiarid biomes that drives fundamental changes in ecosystem structure. However, the observed impacts of woody mortality on ecosystem-scale energy and water budgets and the responses of surviving vegetation are highly variable among studies in water-limited environments. A previous girdling manipulation experiment in a piñon-juniper woodland suggested that although ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration was not altered by large-scale piñon mortality, soil water content decreased and the surviving juniper experienced greater water stress than juniper in an undisturbed woodland. Here we experimentally explored to what extent mortality-induced changes in energy balance components can explain these results. We compared energy fluxes measured above two adjacent piñon-juniper woodlands where piñon girdling was implemented at one site and the other subsequently experienced large-scale natural piñon mortality. We found that the mortality-induced decrease in canopy area was not sufficient to alter surface reflectance, roughness, and partitioning between energy budget components at both sites. A radiative transfer model estimated that because of the sparse premortality canopy, surface reflectance is more sensitive to a large increase in understory leaf area than further loss of crown area. Increased water stress in the remaining juniper following both mortality events can be explained by an increase in radiation on the ground that promoted higher soil temperature and evaporation. We found similar responses of ecosystem and tree-level functions to both girdling and natural mortality. This suggests that girdling is an appropriate approach to explore the impact of tree mortality on ecosystem structure, function, and energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Who is benefiting from the dramatic decline in U.S. cancer mortality? Place-based evidence of disparities in rates of improvement

After decades of increasing cancer mortality, U.S. rates declined from 1991 to 2019, a 32% decrease. we investigated rates of cancer mortality improvement across 2954 counties and selected characteristics associated with mortality improvements. Data was 21,381,009 county-level neoplasm deaths gleaned from death certificates via CDC WONDER. Analytical techniques included GIS and Moran’s I, OLS, GWR models, and trend comparisons. Counties with the greatest improvement (reduction) in cancer mortality tended to be coastal, higher-income, metropolitan locations. OLS model (R 2 = 0.65) indicated that greatest improvements were observed in counties with higher initial mortality ($\beta =.32$) closely followed by percent urban ($\beta =.31$) and median household income ($\beta =.16$). Whereas percent Black residents ($\beta =-.06$), and percent with education beyond high school ($\beta =-.10$) was less associated on outcomes. Highest income counties were the first to experience improvement in cancer mortality, the highest rates of mortality decline, and the greatest reduction in excess deaths. Even though there was significant improvement in cancer mortality nationally, there were variations in the degree of improvement linked to county location, income, and urbanisation. These results underlie the need to expand place-based initiatives designed to advance cancer health and more equitable improvements in cancer mortality outcomes.

developing world↗

DOE OSTI2021

Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests

Summary The relative importance of tree mortality risk factors remains unknown, especially in diverse tropical forests where species may vary widely in their responses to particular conditions. We present a new framework for quantifying the importance of mortality risk factors and apply it to compare 19 risks on 31 203 trees (1977 species) in 14 one‐year periods in six tropical forests. We defined a condition as a risk factor for a species if it was associated with at least a doubling of mortality rate in univariate analyses. For each risk, we estimated prevalence (frequency), lethality (difference in mortality between trees with and without the risk) and impact (‘excess mortality’ associated with the risk, relative to stand‐level mortality). The most impactful risk factors were light limitation and crown/trunk loss; the most prevalent were light limitation and small size; the most lethal were leaf damage and wounds. Modes of death (standing, broken and uprooted) had limited links with previous conditions and mortality risk factors. We provide the first ranking of importance of tree‐level mortality risk factors in tropical forests. Future research should focus on the links between these risks, their climatic drivers and the physiological processes to enable mechanistic predictions of future tree mortality.

Zuleta, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2017

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Climate-Induced Mortality of Spruce Stands in Belarus

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

spruce decline↗

DOE OSTI2016

Reduced Mortality With Partial-Breast Irradiation for Early Breast Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials

Purpose: With earlier detection and more effective treatment, mortality from breast cancer continues to fall and it has become increasingly important to reduce the toxicity of treatments. Partial-breast radiation therapy, which focuses radiation to the tumor bed, may achieve this aim. We analyzed mortality differences in randomized trials of partial-breast irradiation (PBI). Methods and Materials: We included data from published randomized trials of PBI (alone or as part of a risk-adapted approach) versus whole-breast irradiation (WBI) for invasive breast cancer suitable for breast-conserving therapy. We identified trials using PubMed and Google searches with the terms “partial breast irradiation” OR “intraoperative radiotherapy” OR “IMRT” OR (“accelerated” AND “radiation”) AND “randomised/randomized,” as well as through discussion with colleagues in the field. We calculated the proportion of patients who had events in each randomized arm at 5 years' follow-up and created a forest plot using Stata, version 14.1. Results: We identified 9 randomized trials of PBI versus WBI in invasive breast cancer; 5-year outcomes were available for non–breast cancer mortality in 5 trials (n=4489) and for breast cancer mortality in 4 trials (n=4231). The overall mortality was 4.9%. There was no detectable heterogeneity between the trials for any of the outcomes. There was no difference in the proportion of patients dying of breast cancer (difference, 0.000% [95% confidence interval (CI), −0.7 to +0.7]; P=.999). Non–breast cancer mortality with PBI was lower than with WBI (difference, 1.1% [95% CI, −2.1% to −0.2%]; P=.023). Total mortality with PBI was also lower than with WBI (difference, 1.3% [95% CI, −2.5% to 0.0%]; P=.05). Conclusions: Use of PBI instead of WBI in selected patients results in a lower 5-year non–breast cancer and overall mortality, amounting to a 25% reduction in relative terms. This information should be included when breast-conserving therapy is proposed to a patient.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12 × 12km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry models under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in continental US will decrease nationwide, especially in the eastern US and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern US but increase in the Western US. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) decreasing the future baseline incidence rate but increasing the future population. For PM2.5, the entire continental US presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths will both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both two scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the effect of the all causes mortality is much larger than for specific causes. This assessment is the result of the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets. The uncertainty range of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of beta parameter.

BenMAP-CE↗

DOE OSTI2022

The influence of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , temperature, and vapor pressure deficit on seawater-induced tree mortality

We report increasing seawater exposure is killing coastal trees globally, with expectations of accelerating mortality with rising sea levels. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on seawater-induced tree mortality is uncertain. We examined the mechanisms of seawater-induced mortality under varying climate scenarios using a photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost optimization model validated against observations in a mature stand of Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees in the Pacific Northwest, USA, that were dying from recent seawater exposure. The simulations matched well with observations of photosynthesis, transpiration, nonstructural carbohydrates concentrations, leaf water potential, the percentage loss of xylem conductivity, and stand-level mortality rates. The simulations suggest that seawater-induced mortality could decrease by ~16.7% with increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels due to reduced risk of carbon starvation. Conversely, rising VPD could increase mortality by ~5.6% because of increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Across all scenarios, seawater-induced mortality was driven by hydraulic failure in the first two years after seawater exposure began, with carbon starvation becoming more important in subsequent years. Changing CO 2 and climate appear unlikely to have a significant impact on coastal tree mortality under rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Final report: Hydraulic mechanisms of survival and mortality during drought in pinon-juniper woodlands of southwestern USA

The goal of this project was to use rainfall manipulation of an intact pinon-juniper woodland in central New Mexico to understand the mechanisms that control the response of these species to extremes of rainfall. Experimental plots were installed in a pinon-juniper woodland at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge and treatments were imposed in August 2007. Treatments consisted of 1) a Drought treatment imposed by diverting approximately 45% of precipitation away from the plot, 2) and Irrigation treatment imposed by applying six 19 mm simulated rainfall events at regular intervals during the growing season, 3) a Cover Control treatment designed to assess the impact of the plastic troughs constructed on Drought plots without imposing the rainfall diversion, and 4) an untreated control that received no modification. Extensive pinon mortality was observed beginning one year after the start of drought treatment on hillslope plots, while a third drought plot on deeper soils did not exhibit pinon mortality until the fifth year of drought treatment. Pinon mortality occurred in the context of high levels of bark beetle activity, motivating the installation of two additional plots in 2010: a control plot and a drought plot built to the same standards as the original treatments but with bark beetle control maintained by pesticide application to the bole of target trees from 2010 - 2016. Although the drought treatment created similar conditions to those experienced on hillslope drought plots, the drought plot with bark beetle control exhibited no pinon mortality for 5 years even in the presence of high regional bark beetle activity in 2012/13. One of the goals of the research was to identify the mechanism of drought-induced mortality in pinon and juniper: 1) mortality due to catastrophic failure of water transport through plant tissues (hydraulic failure), 2) mortality due to limitations in carbon uptake (carbon starvation) and 3) either of the first two mechanisms with the involvement of bark beetles and other pathogens. Data from this study implicate the interaction of hydraulic failure and carbon limitations with bark beetles playing a pivotal role in influencing the timing of mortality. The uncommon nature of this kind of large scale manipulative experiment has motivated widespread use of the data from the various treatments in modeling exercises with several collaborative groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Importance of Addressing Disagreements Between Nominal and Effective Treatments During Bat Mortality Minimization Validation Studies

As the wind energy industry grows, so too does our need for effective and low-cost bat mortality minimization solutions. Despite knowledge gaps in our understanding of what drives bats to collide with spinning turbines, minimization solutions have shown success during validation studies. Curtailment has been consistently effective, reducing bat mortality from 33%-79%, depending on the curtailment scenario and species present. Several validation studies have demonstrated deterrent solutions, specifically ultrasonic deterrents, to be effective, but overall, more variable compared to curtailment solutions. Further, a study combining curtailment with ultrasonic deterrents produced encouraging results, finding that adding ultrasonic deterrents to turbines that were designated to curtail, significantly reduced mortality rates compared to curtailment only turbines. Despite positive results, the strength of inference achieved with validation studies is limited by methodological constraints associated with appropriately assigning fatalities to treatments. Because of the temporal separation between when a bat collides with a turbine and when it is discovered during a ground-based carcass survey, we must assign carcasses to a treatment that ran during the prior night(s). This process may introduce errors at multiple stages. First, for studies that rotate treatments among turbines, mortality surveyors must be confident that carcasses are 'fresh' such that mortalities are correctly assigned to the treatment from the previous night(s). Second, we must reconcile any misalignments between how we assign treatments and how we implement treatments (e.g., turbines assigned with a deterrent treatment may be implemented as another treatment when deterrent devices are not operating as designed). Finally, for curtailment solutions, it is critical to recognize that measured effects are a function of not just the treatment as implemented but the proportion of the night the treatment is realized (e.g., if wind speeds are greater than the curtailment treatment cut-in speed for the entire night, we cannot expect there to me any differences in mortality reduction relative to control turbines). Using a dataset collected between June and October 2017, that rotated 3 treatments (Deterrent Only, 5 m/s Curtail only, and 5 m/s Curtail & Deterrent) and 1 control condition across 16 turbines each night, we explored the importance and implications of accounting for potential errors in assigning fatalities to treatments. We present preliminary results comparing the mortality associated with error-corrected treatments and control conditions highlighting how the measured effect of a treatment (mortality) greatly depends on site specific implementation.

bats↗

DOE OSTI2022

Delayed fire mortality has long‐term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape

Abstract Fire is a critical ecological process to the forests of the Southern Appalachians. Where fire was excluded from forest types that historically burned frequently, unanticipated changes can occur when fire is reintroduced. For example, the development of new fuel characteristics can change the patterns of fire mortality and associated ecological responses. To test the fire effects of delayed fire mortality (mortality initiated by fire that occurs subsequent to the fire year) in the Southern Appalachians, USA, we developed a fire‐effects model using both field studies and remote sensing. We then simulated these effects at a landscape scale to estimate broader ecological effects. Fire‐effects models that accounted for delayed mortality increased landscape biomass removed annually (~23%) and increased the number of sites with high light conditions (leaf area index < 4) when compared to simulations that only account for immediate mortality. While delayed mortality occurred across species and age classes, it was especially prevalent among older trees (>100 years old) and fire‐resistant species ( Quercus spp.). Overall, regeneration (trees <20 years old) changed very little, even with the inclusion of delayed mortality. This evidence suggests that, even when accounting for delayed mortality, individual fires are unlikely to shift the landscape composition toward the conditions of forests prior to fire exclusion and may even increase mesophication long term due to the loss of overstory dominant xeric trees.

Robbins, Zachary J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Warming and elevated CO 2 alter tamarack C fluxes, growth and mortality: evidence for heat stress-related C starvation in the absence of water stress

Climate warming is increasing the frequency of climate-induced tree mortality events. While drought combined with heat is considered the primary cause of this mortality, little is known about whether moderately high temperatures alone can induce mortality, or whether rising CO 2 would prevent mortality at high growth temperatures. In this study, we grew tamarack ( Larix laricina ) under ambient (400 p.p.m.) and elevated (750 p.p.m.) CO 2 concentrations combined with ambient, ambient +4 °C and ambient +8 °C growth temperatures to investigate whether high growth temperatures lead to carbon (C) limitations and mortality. Growth at +8 °C led to 40% mortality in the ambient CO 2 (8TAC) treatment, but no mortality in the elevated CO 2 treatment. Thermal acclimation of respiration led to similar leaf C balances across the warming treatments, despite a lack of photosynthetic acclimation. Photosynthesis was stimulated under elevated CO 2 , increasing seedling growth, but not leaf C concentrations. However, growth and foliar C concentrations were lowest in the +8 °C treatments, even with elevated CO 2 . Dying 8TAC seedlings had lower needle C concentrations and lower ratios of photosynthesis to respiration than healthy 8TAC seedlings, indicating that C limitations were likely the cause of seedling mortality under high growth temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Measuring chronic liver disease mortality using an expanded cause of death definition and medical records in C onnecticut, 2004

Aim Chronic liver disease ( CLD ) is a leading cause of death and is defined based on a specific set of underlying cause‐of‐death codes on death certificates. This conventional approach to measuring CLD mortality underestimates the true mortality burden because it does not consider certain CLD conditions like viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We measured how much the conventional CLD mortality case definition will underestimate CLD mortality and described the distribution of CLD etiologies in C onnecticut. Methods We used 2004 Connecticut death certificates to estimate CLD mortality two ways. One way used the conventional definition and the other used an expanded definition that included more conditions suggestive of CLD . We compared the number of deaths identified using this expanded definition with the number identified using the conventional definition. Medical records were reviewed to confirm CLD deaths. Results Connecticut had 29 314 registered deaths in 2004. Of these, 282 (1.0%) were CLD deaths identified by the conventional CLD definition while 616 (2.1%) were CLD deaths defined by the expanded definition. Medical record review confirmed that most deaths identified by the expanded definition were CLD ‐related (550/616); this suggested a 15.8 deaths/100 000 population mortality rate. Among deaths for which hepatitis B , hepatitis C and alcoholic liver disease were identified during medical record review, only 8.6%, 45.4% and 36.5%, respectively, had that specific cause‐of‐death code cited on the death certificate. Conclusion An expanded CLD mortality case definition that incorporates multiple causes of death and additional CLD ‐related conditions will better estimate CLD mortality.

Ly, Kathleen N.↗