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Seasonal Monitoring and Estimation of Regional Aerosol Distribution over Po Valley, Northern Italy, Using a High-Resolution MAIAC Product

In this work, the new 1-km-resolved Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm is employed to characterize seasonal AOD-PM10 correlations over northern Italy. The accuracy of the new dataset is assessed versus the widely used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5.1 Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data, retrieved at 0.55 microns with spatial resolution of 10 km (MYD04). We focused on evaluating the ability of these two products to characterize both temporal and spatial distributions of aerosols within urban and suburban areas. Ground PM10 measurements were obtained from 73 of the Italian Regional Agency for Environmental Protection (ARPA) monitoring stations, spread across northern Italy, for a three-year period from 2010 to 2012. The Po Valley area (northern Italy) was chosen as the study domain because of severe urban air pollution, resulting from the highest population and industrial manufacturing density in the country, being located in a valley where two surrounding mountain chains favor the stagnation of pollutants. We found that the global correlations between PM10 and AOD are R(sup 2) = 0.83 and R(sup 2) = 0.44 for MYD04_L2 and for MAIAC, respectively, suggesting for a greater sensitiveness of the high-resolution product to small-scale deviations. However, the introduction of Relative Humidity (RH) and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) depth corrections gave a significant improvement to the PM AOD correlation, which led to similar performance: R(sup 2) = 0.96 for MODIS and R(sup 2) = 0.95 for MAIAC. Furthermore, the introduction of the PBL information in the corrected AOD values was found to be crucial in order to capture the clear seasonal cycle shown by measured PM10 values. The study allowed us to define four seasonal linear correlations that estimate PM10 concentrations satisfactorily from the remotely sensed MAIAC AOD retrieval. Overall, the results show that the high resolution provided by MAIAC retrieval data is much more relevant than 10km MODIS data to characterize PM10 in this region of Italy which has a pretty limited geographical domain, but a broad variety of land usages and consequent particulate concentrations.

MODIS

Analysis of A Severe Dust Storm and Its Impact on Air Quality Conditions Using Wrf-Chem Modeling, Satellite Imagery, and Ground Observations

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an extreme dust event recorded in the Arabian Peninsula and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 31 March and 3 April 2015. Simulations of the dust event with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry module (WRF-Chem) were analyzed and verified using MSG-SEVIRI imagery and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the recent 1-km Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS Terra/Aqua. Data from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the upper-air radiosonde observations were used to understand the synoptic of the event. In addition, the impact of the event on atmospheric and air quality conditions is investigated. The Air Quality Index (AQI) was calculated prior, during, and after the event to assess the degradation of air quality conditions. Simulated temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface radiation were compared to observations at six monitoring stations in the UAE giving R2 values of 0.84, 0.63, 0.60, and 0.84, respectively. From 1 to 2 April 2015, both observations and simulations showed an average drop in temperature from 33 to 26 °C and radiance reduction from about 950 to 520 Wm−2. The AOD modeled by WRF-Chem showed a good correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the UAE with R2 of 0.83. The AQI over the UAE reached hazardous levels during the peak of the dust event before rapidly decreasing to moderate–good air quality levels. This work is the first attempt to demonstrate the potential of using WRF-Chem to estimate AQI over the UAE along with two satellite products (MODIS-MAIAC and MSG-SEVIRI) for dust detection and tracking.

dust storm

First Provisional Land Surface Reflectance Product from Geostationary Satellite Himawari-8 AHI

A provisional surface reflectance (SR) product from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on-board the new generation geostationary satellite (Himawari-8) covering the period between July 2015 and December 2018 is made available to the scientific community. The Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm is used in conjunction with time series Himawari-8 AHI observations to generate 1-km gridded and tiled land SR every 10 minutes during day time. This Himawari-8 AHI SR product includes retrieved atmospheric properties (e.g., aerosol optical depth at 0.47μm and 0.51μm), spectral surface reflectance (AHI bands 1–6), parameters of the RTLS BRDF model, and quality assurance flags. Product evaluation shows that Himawari-8 AHI data on average yielded 35% more cloud-free, valid pixels in a single day when compared to available data from the low earth orbit (LEO) satellites Terra/Aqua with MODIS sensor. Comparisons of Himawari-8 AHI SR against corresponding MODIS SR products (MCD19A1) over a variety of land cover types with the similar viewing geometry show high consistency between them, with correlation coefficients (r) being 0.94 and 0.99 for red and NIR bands, respectively. The high-frequency geostationary data are expected to facilitate studies of ecosystems on daily to diurnal time scales, complementing observations from networks such as the FLUXNET.

Himawari-8 AHI

Satellite Observed Widespread Decline in Mongolian Grasslands Largely Due to Overgrazing

The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70 percent of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or overgrazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to MODIS observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12 percent on average) in MODIS observed NDVI across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40 percent below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80 percent of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30 percent of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50 percent in areas with denser vegetation cover (p0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r20.10, p0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies.

Mongolia

Estimation of Daily PM(sub 10) Concentrations in Italy (2006-2012) Using Finely Resolved Satellite Data, Land Use Variables and Meteorology

Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter. The complex topography and the air mixture from both natural and anthropogenic sources are great challenges difficult to be addressed. We combined finely resolved data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, ground-level PM10measurements, land-use variables and meteorological parameters into a four-stage mixed model framework to derive estimates of daily PM10concentrations at 1-km2 grid over Italy, for the years 2006-2012. We checked performance of our models by applying 10-fold cross-validation (CV) for each year. Our models displayed good fitting, with mean CV-R2=0.65 and little bias (average slope of predicted VS observed PM10=0.99). Out-of-sample predictions were more accurate in Northern Italy (Po valley) and large conurbations (e.g. Rome), for background monitoring stations, and in the winter season. Resulting concentration maps showed highest average PM10levels in specific areas (Po river valley, main industrial and metropolitan areas) with decreasing trends over time. Our daily predictions of PM10concentrations across the whole Italy will allow, for the first time, estimation of long-term and short-term effects of air pollution nationwide, even in areas lacking monitoring data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particulate Matter/analysis

Surface Reflectance Product from Geostationary Satellite

We have generated provisional Himawari-8 AHI surface reflectance (SR) product for land and vegetation monitoring. The Himawari-8 AHI surface reflectance product is part of our GeoNEX land products, which integrate level 2 and higher remote sensing data from a set of geostationary satellite sensors (i.e. GOES-16, -17 ABI, Himawari-8 AHI, FY4-A AGRI, and MTG-I). Adapted Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm is used to process time series Himawari-8 AHI observations. Himawari-8 AHI SR provides gridded and tiled land SR in 1-km resolution with high frequency (every 10 minutes during daylight time). There are three subdatasets: 1) retrieved atmospheric properties (e.g. column water vapor at 0.86 m, aerosol optical depth at 0.47m and 0.51m); 2) spectral (AHI bands 1-6) surface reflectance, kernels of RTLS BRDF model; 3)spectral BRDF kernel weights, and extensive quality assurance flags. The evaluation results show that Himawari-8 AHI data yield much more valid pixels in a single day in the characterization of land surface, when compare to NASA flagship satellite MODIS Terra/Aqua. This observation frequency and resolution of geostationary data should allow for using continuous ecosystem monitoring in diurnal studies at continental scale. Initial evaluations indicate a stable Himawari-8 AHI land SR product.

Li, Shuang

Washington Health & Air Quality: Quantifying Air Quality Parameters and Validating Air Pollution Sources Impacting the Health of Puget Sound Residents Through the Use of NASA and ESA Remote Sensing Data

In the Puget Sound region of Washington, high levels of air pollutants put residents’ health at risk by increasing their likelihood of developing critical respiratory conditions. This project used remotely-sensed data to investigate aerosol optical depth (AOD) from NASA satellite sensors including the Terra and Aqua MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and European Space Agency Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The team visualized the most recent data in Google Earth Engine (GEE) API to display air pollution trends in Washington State, which will support the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency’s (PSCAA) decision-making processes. The team performed linear regressions using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm to form a relationship between ground-level microscopic particles (PM2.5) and AOD in the Puget Sound region, validating the relationship using concentration readings taken from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air quality monitors. The team utilized estimated PM2.5 and other satellite data to produce a web-based tool and to evaluate the effectiveness of using such a tool for near real-time air quality monitoring within a particular region. The team found that the tool provides useful supplementary data that fills in the gaps of the PSCAA’s air monitoring network.

Health & Air Quality

Washington Health & Air Quality: Quantifying Air Quality Parameters and Validating Air Pollution Sources Impacting the Health of Puget Sound Residents Through the Use of NASA and ESA Remote Sensing Data

In the Puget Sound region of Washington, high levels of air pollutants put residents’ health at risk by increasing their likelihood of developing critical respiratory conditions. This project used remotely-sensed data to investigate aerosol optical depth (AOD) from NASA satellite sensors including the Terra and Aqua MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and European Space Agency Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The team visualized the most recent data in Google Earth Engine (GEE) API to display air pollution trends from Northern California to British Columbia, which will support the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency’s (PSCAA) decision-making processes. The team performed linear regressions using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm to form a relationship between ground-level microscopic particles (PM2.5) and AOD in the Puget Sound region, validating the relationship using concentration readings taken from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air quality monitors. The team utilized estimated PM2.5 and other satellite data to produce a web-based tool and to evaluate the effectiveness of using such a tool for near real-time air quality monitoring within a particular region. The team found that the tool provides useful supplementary data that fills in the gaps of the PSCAA’s air monitoring network.

Health & Air Quality

Retrievals of Aerosol Optical Depth and Spectral Absorption from DSCOVR EPIC

A new algorithm is described for joint retrievals of the aerosol optical depth and spectral absorption from EPIC observations in the UV—Vis spectral range. The retrievals are illustrated on examples of the wildfire smoke events over North America, and dust storms over greater Sahara region in 2018. An initial evaluation of single scattering albedo (SSA) at 443 nm over these regions shows a good agreement with AERONET data, generally within the uncertainty of AERONET SSA of ± 0.03. A particularly good agreement is achieved for dust with R∼0.62, rmse∼0.02, negligible bias, and 85% points within the expected error. This new capability is part of version 2 MAIAC EPIC algorithm. The v2 algorithm has recently completed reprocessing of the EPIC record covering the period of 2015–2020.

EPIC

Fusing GeoNEX and VIIRS Surface BRDF Retrievals: Exploring a GEO-LEO Synergy

The Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function or BRDF, which describes the dependency of surface reflectance on the illumination-view geometries, are the foundation of many high-level satellite products for terrestrial and aquatic system monitoring. The latest geostationary sensors like GOES ABI provide high frequent (~10 minutes) observations of the Earth surface that feature continuously changing sun angles, allowing us to retrieve surface BRDF with dedicated atmospheric correction algorithms like MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction). For mid-latitude locations, because geostationary satellites have fixed view angles in the back-scattering directions, the angular sampling of surface BRDF by GEO sensors is not comprehensive. This study explores a GEO-LEO synergy to address this issue. We first extract concurrent GeoNEX and VIIRS BRDF data with the best quality (cloud-free and low aerosol loading) at chosen AERONET sites. We then compare the magnitude and the shape factors of the two set of BRDF parameters as well as their variations through the season. We calculate the “distances” between the GeoNEX and VIIRS BRDF by using them to cross-predict the top-of-atmosphere reflectance measured by their counterpart and evaluating the corresponding prediction errors. This metric allows us to derive a set of optimized BRDF parameters that minimize such distances or prediction errors, which are considered as the fused BRDF result. We validate the algorithm with reserved AERONET data and then apply it to generate the GEO-LEO BRDF synergy over CONUS. We expect the fused BRDF to have reduced uncertainties as compared to the source GeoNEX or VIIRS data and may find broadly application in deriving other high-level satellite products.

Geostationary satellite

Development of the GeoNEX Level 2G Products: Exploiting the Diurnal Variability of TOA Reflectance in Atmospheric Correction

This study develops a new atmospheric correction algorithm to generate the Level 2G products, in particular the gap-filled Surface Reflectance at 10-minute time steps, for the Geostationary-NASA Earth Exchange (GeoNEX) project. The algorithm is based on the MODIS MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) framework but with significant modifications to exploit angular/temporal information from the diurnal variability of the GeoNEX L1G TOA (Top-of-Atmosphere) reflectance. The algorithm starts by evaluating the roughness/smoothness of the diurnal time series of the TOA reflectance. Because rapid changes in TOA reflectance are generally caused by passing clouds or shadows, rough segments of the time series are automatically filtered out while the smooth segments are further tested for brightness and temperature to identify clear-sky and snow-free observations. Next the algorithm runs the MAIAC RTM (Radiative Transfer Model) to retrieve the Ross-Thick-Li-Sparse (RTLS) BRDF model parameters and the daily-mean atmospheric optical depth (AOD) that allow the RTM to optimally simulate the observed diurnal variability of clear-sky TOA reflectance. Once the initial RTLS parameters are retrieved after the algorithm’s burn-in period, they are used as the prior information to predict the AOD level for the next days, while the subsequent clear-sky observations are used to make necessary adjustments to the RTLS parameters in an continuous fashion. This “prediction-analysis” cycle is then iterated to process the full time series of the L1G data, skipping only total-cloudy days or when surface snow is detected. We tested the algorithm over a list of selected AERONET sites. The retrieved results (the daily mean AOD and the RTLS parameters) reasonably agree with the ground-based measurements. Importantly, the results indicate that the diurnal cycles of surface reflectance are continuous functions of the illumination-view geometry. Thus we can use the retrieved RTLS model to accurately fill in data gaps on partial cloudy days. Also, our algorithm is totally independent from the traditional approaches based on the use of spectral band ratios between the shortwave infrared (e.g., 2.2µm) and the visible (e.g., 0.47µm and 0.64µm) bands. Our results thus demonstrate that the high-frequent diurnal geostationary observations contain unique information that helps us improve atmospheric correction of remote sensing data.

GeoNEX

Evaluation of Novel NASA MODIS and VIIRS Aerosol Products and Assessment of Smoke Height Boundary Layer Ratio During Extreme Smoke Events in the Western U.S.

We analyze new aerosol products from NASA satellite retrievals over the western U.S. during August 2013, with special attention to locally generated wildfire smoke and downwind plume structures. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from MODIS (Terra and Aqua Collections 6 and 6.1) and VIIRS Deep Blue (DB) and MODIS (Terra and Aqua) Multi‐Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) retrievals are evaluated against ground‐based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations. We find a significant improvement in correlation with AERONET and other metrics in the latest DB AOD (MODIS C6.1 r^2=0.75, VIIRS r^2=0.79) compared to MODIS C6 (r2=0.62). In general, MAIAC (r^2=0.84) and DB (MODIS C6.1 and VIIRS) present similar statistical evaluation metrics for the western U.S. and are useful tools to characterize aerosol loading associated with wildfire smoke. We also evaluate three novel NASA MODIS plume injection height (PIH) products, one from MAIAC and two from the Aerosol Single scattering albedo and layer Height Estimation (ASHE) (MODIS and VIIRS) algorithm. Both Terra and Aqua MAIAC PIHs statistically agree with ground‐based and satellite lidar observations near the fire source, as do ASHE, although the latter is sensitive to assumptions about aerosol absorption properties. We introduce a first‐order approximation Smoke Height Boundary Layer Ratio (SHBLR) to qualitatively distinguish between aerosol pollution within the planetary boundary layer and the free troposphere. We summarize the scope, limitations, and suggestions for scientific applications of surface level aerosol concentrations specific to wildfire emissions and smoke plumes using these novel NASA MODIS and VIIRS aerosol products.

Plume injection height

Satellite-Based View of the Aerosol Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Cordoba Region (Argentina) Using over Ten Years of High-Resolution Data

Space-based observations offer a unique opportunity to investigate the atmosphere and its changes over decadal time scales, particularly in regions lacking in situ and/or ground based observations. In this study, we investigate temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric particulate matter (aerosol) over the urban area of Córdoba (central Argentina) using over ten years (2003–2015) of high-resolution (1 km) satellite-based retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD). This fine resolution is achieved exploiting the capabilities of a recently developed inversion algorithm (Multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction, MAIAC) applied to the MODIS sensor datasets of the NASA-Terra and -Aqua platforms. Results of this investigation show a clear seasonality of AOD over the investigated area. This is found to be shaped by an intricate superposition of aerosol sources, acting over different spatial scales and affecting the region with different yearly cycles. During late winter and spring (August-October), local as well as near- and long-range transported biomass burning (BB) aerosols enhance the Córdoba aerosol load, and AOD levels reach their maximum values (>0.35 at 0.47 µm). The fine AOD spatial resolution allowed to disclose that, in this period, AOD maxima are found in the rural/agricultural area around the city, reaching up to the city boundaries pinpointing that fires of local and near-range origin play a major role in the AOD enhancement. A reverse spatial AOD gradient is found from December to March, the urban area showing AODs 40–80% higher than in the city surroundings. In fact, during summer, the columnar aerosol load over the Córdoba region is dominated by local (urban and industrial) sources, likely coupled to secondary processes driven by enhanced radiation and mixing effects within a deeper planetary boundary layer (PBL). With the support of modelled AOD data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), we further investigated into the chemical nature of AOD. The results suggest that mineral dust is also an important aerosol component in Córdoba, with maximum impact from November to February. The use of a long-term dataset finally allowed a preliminary assessment of AOD trends over the Córdoba region. For those months in which local sources and secondary processes were found to dominate the AOD (December to March), we found a positive AOD trend in the Córdoba outskirts, mainly in the areas with maximum urbanization/population growth over the investigated decade. Conversely, a negative AOD trend (up to −0.1 per decade) is observed all over the rural area of Córdoba during the BB season, this being attributed to a decrease of fires both at the local and the continental scale.

aerosols

Characterizing Aerosol From Space With the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Modis) on the Terra and Aqua Satellites

Aerosols, the small, suspended liquid and solid particles in the atmosphere, have myriad effects on climate, weather, and air quality. When the NASA Earth-Observing System’s (EOS) Terra and Aqua satellites launched in 1999 and 2002, they each included many advanced sensors that have been used for aerosol research. In particular, the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) deployed on both satellites, has provided key data relating to aerosol loading and relative aerosol type on the global scale. Three different algorithms, known as “Dark Target”, “Deep Blue” and “MAIAC”, use different subsets of MODIS measurements and different assumptions to create various products such as Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), fine mode fraction (FMF) and single scattering albedo (SSA). Although all three derive AOD in cloud-free conditions, each algorithm has different strengths and weaknesses in different areas of the globe and under different conditions. Here, we provide a short summary of each algorithm, description of products, and basic information about downloading and using the products. We also provide some examples of how MODIS aerosol products are used. Finally, we add a quick discussion about how these algorithms and products will continue after MODIS leaves orbit.

MODIS

Validation of High-Resolution MAIAC Aerosol Product over South America

Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) is a new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) algorithm that combines time series approach and image processing to derive surface reflectance and atmosphere products, such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and columnar water vapor (CWV). The quality assessment of MAIAC AOD at 1 km resolution is still lacking across South America. In the present study, critical assessment of MAIAC AOD(sub 550) was performed using ground-truth data from 19 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites over South America. Additionally, we validated the MAIAC CWV retrievals using the same AERONET sites. In general, MAIAC AOD Terra/Aqua retrievals show high agreement with ground-based measurements, with a correlation coefficient (R) close to unity (R(sub Terra):0.956 and R(sub Aqua):0.949). MAIAC accuracy depends on the surface properties and comparisons revealed high confidence retrievals over cropland, forest, savanna, and grassland covers, where more than 2/3 (approximately 66%) of retrievals are within the expected error (EE = +/-(0.05 + 0.05 × AOD)) and R exceeding 0.86. However, AOD retrievals over bright surfaces show lower correlation than those over vegetated areas. Both MAIAC Terra and Aqua retrievals are similarly comparable to AERONET AOD over the MODIS lifetime (small bias offset approximately 0.006). Additionally, MAIAC CWV presents quantitative information with R approximatley 0.97 and more than 70% of retrievals within error (+/-15%). Nonetheless, the time series validation shows an upward bias trend in CWV Terra retrievals and systematic negative bias for CWV Aqua. These results contribute to a comprehensive evaluation of MAIAC AOD retrievals as a new atmospheric product for future aerosol studies over South America.

Martins, V. S.

The AOD Sensitivity Comparison between MODIS Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) and Standard MODIS Surface Reflectance

This study compares the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) and standard MODIS surface reflectance (SR) products (MOD09)for various aerosol optical depth (AOD) levels. Data from one MODIS tile in northern China for the whole year 2018 is compared. The results reveal that MAIAC SR has good stability for the full range of AOD for which SR is reported, whereas MOD09 SR shows increasing high bias with AOD increases. The cross-comparison of spectral characteristics between MAIAC SR and MOD09 SR shows a systematic MAIAC-MOD09 difference increasing from NIR to Blue. This pattern is consistent with the bias caused by Lambertian assumption used in MOD09 SR algorithm.

MAIAC

A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

Air pollution