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At least 55 records · Page 3

Predictability as a probe of manifest and latent physics: The case of atomic scale structural, chemical, and polarization behaviors in multiferroic Sm-doped BiFeO 3

The predictability of a certain effect or phenomenon is often equated with the knowledge of relevant physical laws, typically understood as a functional or numerically derived relationship between the observations and known states of the system. Correspondingly, observations inconsistent with prior knowledge can be used to derive new knowledge on the nature of the system or indicate the presence of yet unknown mechanisms. In this work, we explore the applicability of Gaussian processes (GP) to establish predictability and uncertainty of local behaviors from multimodal observations, providing an alternative to this classical paradigm. Using atomic resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) of multiferroic Sm-doped BiFeO 3 across a broad composition range, we directly visualize the atomic structure and structural, physical, and chemical order parameter fields for the material. GP regression is used to establish the predictability of the local polarization field from different groups of parameters, including the adjacent polarization values and several combinations of physical and chemical descriptors, including lattice parameters, column intensities, etc. We observe that certain elements of microstructure, including charged and uncharged domain walls and interfaces with the substrate, are best predicted with specific combinations of descriptors, and this predictability and associated uncertainties are consistent across the composition series. The associated generative physical mechanisms are discussed. It is also found that certain parameter combinations tend to predict the orthorhombic phase in the cases where rhombohedral phase is observed, suggesting a potential role of clamping and confinement phenomena in phase equilibrium in Sm-BiFeO 3 system close to morphotropic phase boundary. We argue that predictability and uncertainty in observational data offer a new pathway to probe the physics of condensed matter systems from multimodal local observations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

The Oceanic Barrier Layer in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Predictor for Rainfall Over Indonesia and Australia

Barrier layers in the tropics trap heat in a shallow and stable near-surface layer and limit entrainment of cooler water from below. Both processes act to increase sea surface temperature and enhance atmospheric convection. The high resolution fully coupled pre-industrial Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 0 (E3SMv0) is used to investigate the relationship between barrier layers in the eastern Indian Ocean during the wet season with local atmospheric convection and remote rainfall. A partial least squares regression reveals a significant relationship between Australasian rainfall and the barrier layer thickness (BLT) west of Sumatra, occurring one month earlier. Furthermore, the largest positive regression coefficients are over northern Australia. The region west of Sumatra is strategically located where the East-Asian monsoon moisture flows toward northern Australia. Thickening of the west Sumatra BLT intensifies evaporation and local convection and amplifies the moisture transported to Australia acting to increase the terrestrial rainfall.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Identification of mechanisms driving heterogeneous void growth in ductile aluminum

Void growth plays a central role in ductile fracture, yet the specific mechanisms that control this remain obscure. Classical models, such as those proposed by Rice and Tracey in 1969, are able to capture average rates of void growth, but cannot capture the heterogeneity of individual void growth. Building on recent work, the present study employs laboratory-based diffraction contrast tomography and in-situ x-ray computed tomography to investigate the effect of grain structure and other microstructural factors on void growth in an Al-2219 alloy. Crystal plasticity finite element (CP-FE) modeling is used alongside experimental data to evaluate the contributions of local mechanical states, grain orientation, grain size, and neighboring microstructural features. No strong linear relationships are found with any of the considered descriptors and void growth rate. Potential complex nonlinear relationships are explored with the use of a random forest regression model, which identifies initial void volume, void aspect ratio, local normal stress state, local shear stress state, and local equivalent plastic strain (EQPS) as features that most improve void growth rate predictions. The combination of these analyses suggests that these features should be prioritized to improve models of void growth.

Diffraction contrast tomography (DCT)↗

A Robust Neural Network for Extracting Dynamics from Electrostatic Force Microscopy Data

Advances in scanning probe microscopy (SPM) methods such as time-resolved electrostatic force microscopy (trEFM) now permit the mapping of fast local dynamic processes with high resolution in both space and time, but such methods can be time-consuming to analyze and calibrate. Here, we design and train a regression neural network (NN) that accelerates and simplifies the extraction of local dynamics from SPM data directly in a cantilever-independent manner, allowing the network to process data taken with different cantilevers. We validate the NN’s ability to recover local dynamics with a fidelity equal to or surpassing conventional, more time-consuming, calibrations using both simulated and real microscopy data. We apply this method to extract accurate photoinduced carrier dynamics on n = 1 butylammonium lead iodide, a halide perovskite semiconductor film that is of interest for applications in both solar photovoltaics and quantum light sources. Lastly, we use SHapley Additive exPlanations to evaluate the robustness of the trained model, confirm its cantilever-independence, and explore which parts of the trEFM signal are important to the network.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗

How Does Flow Alteration Propagate Across a Large, Highly Regulated Basin? Dam Attributes, Network Context, and Implications for Biodiversity

Abstract Large dams are a leading cause of river ecosystem degradation. Although dams have cumulative effects as water flows downstream in a river network, most flow alteration research has focused on local impacts of single dams. Here we examined the highly regulated Colorado River Basin (CRB) to understand how flow alteration propagates in river networks, as influenced by the location and characteristics of dams as well as the structure of the river network—including the presence of tributaries. We used a spatial Markov network model informed by 117 upstream‐downstream pairs of monthly flow series (2003–2017) to estimate flow alteration from 84 intermediate‐to‐large dams representing >83% of the total storage in the CRB. Using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression, we then investigated how flow alteration was influenced by local dam properties (e.g., purpose, storage capacity) and network‐level attributes (e.g., position, upstream cumulative storage). Flow alteration was highly variable across the network, but tended to accumulate downstream and remained high in the main stem. Dam impacts were explained by network‐level attributes (63%) more than by local dam properties (37%), underscoring the need to consider network context when assessing dam impacts. High‐impact dams were often located in sub‐watersheds with high levels of native fish biodiversity, fish imperilment, or species requiring seasonal flows that are no longer present. These three biodiversity dimensions, as well as the amount of dam‐free downstream habitat, indicate potential to restore river ecosystems via controlled flow releases. Our methods are transferrable and could guide screening for dam reoperation in other highly regulated basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distance-dependent dielectric constant at the calcite/electrolyte interface: Implication for surface complexation modeling

Hypothesis: The electrical double layer formed at the mineral/electrolyte interface is often modeled using mean-field approaches based on a continuum description of the solvent whose dielectric constant is assumed to decrease monotonically with decreasing distance to the surface. In contrast, molecular simulations show that the solvent polarizability oscillates near the surface similar to the water density profile - as shown previously, for example, by Bonthuis et al. (D.J. Bonthuis, S. Gekle, R.R. Netz, Dielectric Profile of Interfacial Water and its Effect on Double-Layer Capacitance, Phys Rev Lett 107(16) (2011) 166102). Here, we showed that molecular and mesoscale pictures agree by spatially averaging the dielectric constant obtained from molecular dynamics simulations over the distances relevant to the mean-field representation. In addition, the values of capacitances used to describe the electrical double layer in Surface Complexation Models (SCMs) of the mineral/electrolyte interface can be estimated using molecularly informed spatially averaged dielectric constants and positions of hydration layers. Experiments: First, we used molecular dynamics simulations to model the calcite 101¯4/electrolyte interface. Next, by using atomistic trajectories, we calculated the distance-dependent static dielectric constant and water density in the direction normal to the. Finally, we applied spatial compartmentalization consistent with the model of parallel-plate capacitors connected in series to estimate SCM capacitances. Findings: Computationally expensive simulations are required to determine the dielectric constant profile of interfacial water near the mineral surface. On the other hand, water density profiles are readily assessable from much shorter simulation trajectories. Our simulations confirmed that dielectric and water density oscillations at the interface are correlated. Here, we parametrized linear regression models to estimate the dielectric constant directly from the local water density. This is a significant computational shortcut compared to slowly converging calculations relying on total dipole moment fluctuations. The amplitude of the interfacial dielectric constant oscillation can exceed the dielectric constant of the bulk water, suggesting an ice-like frozen state, but only if there are no electrolyte ions. The interfacial accumulation of electrolyte ions causes a decrease in the dielectric constant due to the reduction of water density and re-orientation of water dipoles in ion hydration shells. Finally, we show how to use the computed dielectric properties to estimate SCM's capacitances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interpretable, extensible linear and symbolic regression models for charge density prediction using a hierarchy of many-body correlation descriptors

Here, density functional theory (DFT) is routinely used to make electronic structure predictions for high-throughput screening of materials and molecules for technologically relevant areas, like the identification of better catalysts, electronic materials, and drug discovery. However, the DFT formalism is limited by (a) its poor (quadratic-to-quartic) scaling, and (b) the need to perform repeated eigenvalue computations of the electronic Hamiltonian as part of its self-consistent field (SCF) iteration procedure to obtain the converged ground state electron density, ρ (r). Approaches that directly predict ρ (r) of a structure with high accuracy can accelerate conventional SCF calculations and can also be used in linearly scaling methods such as orbital-free DFT. To this end, we present a procedure to predict the ground state electron density of molecular and periodic three-dimensional systems directly from the atomic structure with a particular emphasis on physical interpretability. In our framework, ρ (r) is modeled using many-body correlation descriptors that accurately capture the effects of local atomic arrangements in the neighborhood of a grid point. Our use of a linear regression scheme to fit to charge density data enables transparent analysis of the relative contributions of various types of local atomic correlations. By systematically including increasingly complex correlations, our model is shown to accurately predict ρ (r) for a variety of chemically and electronically diverse systems — amorphous Ge, Al(001) slab, crystalline Ga 2 O 3 , molecular benzene, and polyethylene. We then demonstrate a symbolic regression-based protocol to construct easily computable, interpretable features from lower-order correlations that significantly improves our electron density predictions with effectively no increase in the computational cost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Machine Learning Classification of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger Channel Plugging using Synthetic Data

This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.4 AI capability to identify and predict maintenance events. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating the feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults. To determine the optimal approach to detection and localization of channel plugging, we benchmark seven different ML models: Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Tree Classifier, and Feed-Forward Neural Network. ML algorithms are benchmarked using synthetic HX plugging data generated with computational fluid dynamics COMSOL software, with added brown noise to represent experimental noise. We show that the best performance is obtained with the Decision Tree classifier.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advances in Kriging-Based Autonomous X-Ray Scattering Experiments

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging paradigm for scientific discovery, wherein measurement instruments are augmented with decision-making algorithms, allowing them to autonomously explore parameter spaces of interest. We have recently demonstrated a generalized approach to autonomous experimental control, based on generating a surrogate model to interpolate experimental data, and a corresponding uncertainty model, which are computed using a Gaussian process regression known as ordinary Kriging (OK). We demonstrated the successful application of this method to exploring materials science problems using x-ray scattering measurements at a synchrotron beamline. Here, we report several improvements to this methodology that overcome limitations of traditional Kriging methods. The variogram underlying OK is global and thus insensitive to local data variation. We augment the Kriging variance with model-based measures, for instance providing local sensitivity by including the gradient of the surrogate model. As with most statistical regression methods, OK minimizes the number of measurements required to achieve a particular model quality. However, in practice this may not be the most stringent experimental constraint; e.g. the goal may instead be to minimize experiment duration or material usage. We define an adaptive cost function, allowing the autonomous method to balance information gain against measured experimental cost. We provide synthetic and experimental demonstrations, validating that this improved algorithm yields more efficient autonomous data collection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting molecular dipole moments by combining atomic partial charges and atomic dipoles

The molecular dipole moment ( μ ) is a central quantity in chemistry. It is essential in predicting infrared and sum-frequency generation spectra as well as induction and long-range electrostatic interactions. Furthermore, it can be extracted directly—via the ground state electron density—from high-level quantum mechanical calculations, making it an ideal target for machine learning (ML). Here, we choose to represent this quantity with a physically inspired ML model that captures two distinct physical effects: local atomic polarization is captured within the symmetry-adapted Gaussian process regression framework which assigns a (vector) dipole moment to each atom, while the movement of charge across the entire molecule is captured by assigning a partial (scalar) charge to each atom. The resulting “MuML” models are fitted together to reproduce molecular μ computed using high-level coupled-cluster theory and density functional theory (DFT) on the QM7b dataset, achieving more accurate results due to the physics-based combination of these complementary terms. The combined model shows excellent transferability when applied to a showcase dataset of larger and more complex molecules, approaching the accuracy of DFT at a small fraction of the computational cost. We also demonstrate that the uncertainty in the predictions can be estimated reliably using a calibrated committee model. The ultimate performance of the models—and the optimal weighting of their combination—depends, however, on the details of the system at hand, with the scalar model being clearly superior when describing large molecules whose dipole is almost entirely generated by charge separation. These observations point to the importance of simultaneously accounting for the local and non-local effects that contribute to μ ; furthermore, they define a challenging task to benchmark future models, particularly those aimed at the description of condensed phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Random projection using random quantum circuits

The random sampling task performed by Google's Sycamore processor gave us a glimpse of the “quantum supremacy era.” This has definitely shed some light on the power of random quantum circuits in this abstract task of sampling outputs from the (pseudo)random circuits. In this paper, we explore a practical near-term use of local random quantum circuits in dimensional reduction of large low-rank data sets. We make use of the well-studied dimensionality reduction technique called the random projection method. This method has been extensively used in various applications such as image processing, logistic regression, entropy computation of low-rank matrices, etc. We prove that the matrix representations of local random quantum circuits with sufficiently shorter depths [ ∼ O ( n ) ] serve as good candidates for random projection. We demonstrate numerically that their projection abilities are not far off from the computationally expensive classical principal components analysis on MNIST and CIFAR-100 image datasets. We also benchmark the performance of quantum random projection against the commonly used classical random projection in the tasks of dimensionality reduction of image data sets and computing von Neumann entropies of large low-rank density matrices. And finally, using variational quantum singular value decomposition, we demonstrate a near-term implementation of extracting the singular vectors with dominant singular values after quantum random projecting a large low-rank matrix to lower dimensions. All such numerical experiments unequivocally demonstrate the ability of local random circuits to randomize a large Hilbert space at sufficiently shorter depths with robust retention of properties of large data sets in reduced dimensions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Kumaran, Keerthi (ORCID:0009000949125721)↗

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simple Heat Transfer Model for Film Cooling Applications

This report describes the development of a simple engineering model for film cooling. This model is used to derive a relationship between local wall temperature variations and key cooling performance parameters like local heat transfer coefficients and film effectiveness. This relation and method new and different from previously published models. The scope of this report includes the derivation of regression model equations for a flat plate with and without film cooling. The model equation for a flat plate without film cooling can be used to estimate local heat transfer coefficients using surface temperatures measured from infrared thermography. The model equation for the flat plate with film cooling can be used to estimate film cooling effectiveness, $η_f$, and heat transfer augmentation from the film cooling jet(s).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty quantification of the virial black hole mass with conformal prediction

Precise measurements of the black hole mass are essential to gain insight on the black hole and host galaxy co-evolution. A direct measure of the black hole mass is often restricted to nearest galaxies and instead, an indirect method using the single-epoch virial black hole mass estimation is used for objects at high redshifts. However, this method is subjected to biases and uncertainties as it is reliant on the scaling relation from a small sample of local active galactic nuclei. In this study, we propose the application of conformalized quantile regression (CQR) to quantify the uncertainties of the black hole predictions in a machine learning setting. We compare CQR with various prediction interval techniques and demonstrated that CQR can provide a more useful prediction interval indicator. In contrast to baseline approaches for prediction interval estimation, we show that the CQR method provides prediction intervals that adjust to the black hole mass and its related properties. That is it yields a tighter constraint on the prediction interval (hence more certain) for a larger black hole mass, and accordingly, bright and broad spectral line width source. Using a combination of neural network model and CQR framework, the recovered virial black hole mass predictions and uncertainties are comparable to those measured from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The code is publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Resolving the fast ion distribution from imaging neutral particle analyzer measurements

A recently developed imaging neutral particle analyzer (INPA) on the DIII-D tokamak (Du 2018 Nucl. Fusion 58 082006) enables fast ion velocity-space tomography of high fidelity at the interrogated phase space. To accomplish this, the spatial and energy depending fast ( E < 80 keV) neutral flux towards the INPA stripping foils is calculated with FIDASIM and a newly developed code INPASIM simulates the INPA instrumental response to this neutral flux. Included in INPASIM is the neutral-foil interaction, the Larmor orbit tracing between the foil and the phosphor, the phosphor response to the incident ion flux as well as camera focusing. Benefiting from heavy, localized velocity-space weights and excellent signal to noise, computed tomography using the Ridge regression method is able to successfully reconstruct fine-scale velocity-space structures produced by multiple neutral beams separated by as small as ~3 keV in tests. Applying the inversion method to a sawtooth crash event reveals a significant profile flattening of confined passing particles across q = 1 flux surface, as well as a redistribution of fast ions into the trapped orbits at the plasma edge close to the last closed flux surface.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Symbolic diagnostics to interpret and analyze neural network models

Embedded machine-learned models (EMLMs) have the promise to improve the predictive accuracy of engineering simulators in environments of national interest. EMLMs often comprise complex input-output maps (e.g., neural networks), which make them unamenable to rigorous analysis and generally difficult to interpret. In the face of decades of theory, this lack of interpretability is a significant barrier to building confidence in these models. This work outlines an approach to interpret EMLMs using sparse polynomial regression for comparison with theoretical understanding. To do so, we build on the concept of Locally Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) using physics-informed clustering, prototype selection, and library construction. While general, we demonstrate our method on tensor-basis neural networks used in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations of hypersonic fluid flows. Results are presented for a simulated toy model and for direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent flows over a flat plate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗