Bayesian Target Detection Algorithms for Solid Subpixel Targets in Hyperspectral Images
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Spatial and temporal overlap between hatchery- and natural-origin steelhead and Chinook Salmon during spawning in the Klickitat River, Washington, USA
Abstract Objective A goal of many segregated salmonid hatchery programs is to minimize potential interbreeding between hatchery- and natural-origin fish. Our objective was to assess this on the Klickitat River, Washington, USA. Methods We used radiotelemetry to evaluate spatiotemporal spawning overlap between hatchery- and natural-origin steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss and spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha. We estimated percentages of tagged fish that spawned naturally in the Klickitat River subbasin, emigrated from the Klickitat River, or died before spawning. A kernel density analysis was used to estimate probability of spatiotemporal overlap between hatchery- and natural-origin spawners. Result For steelhead, 12% of hatchery-origin and 50% of natural-origin fish spawned naturally. For spring Chinook Salmon, 18% of hatchery-origin and 44% of natural-origin fish spawned naturally. Tag loss may result in underestimates in these percentages. Most hatchery-origin steelhead (90%) spawned downstream of river kilometer (rkm) 32, and 75% spawned from November to mid-March. The majority of natural-origin steelhead (64%) spawned upstream of rkm 32, and 75% spawned from mid-March to late May. Spawn timing of hatchery-origin Chinook Salmon (early August to mid-September) overlapped with that of natural-origin Chinook Salmon (late July to late September), and fish of both origins spawned in the same 30-km reach of the river. We estimated the percentage of hatchery-origin spawners (pHOS) on the natural spawning grounds to be 12% for steelhead and 40% for spring Chinook Salmon across all study years. For steelhead, we estimated the overlap probability to be 25% (95% CI = 22.5–28%). For spring Chinook Salmon, tight spatial clustering of hatchery-origin fish resulted in a lower overlap estimate of 21% (13–31%). Conclusion We suggest adjusting pHOS estimates using these overlap estimates or similar spatiotemporal data on actual spawner proximity and possible interactions, and that these types of analyses be used in conjunction with gene flow analysis to accurately evaluate effects of individual hatchery programs.
Zendt, Joseph S.↗
An extended polynomial chaos expansion for PDF characterization and variation with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
This paper presents an extended polynomial chaos formalism for epistemic uncertainties and a new framework for evaluating sensitivities and variations of output probability density functions (PDF) to uncertainty in probabilistic models of input variables. An ”extended” polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is developed that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, modeled as random variables, thus allowing a unified treatment of both types of uncertainty. We explore in particular epistemic uncertainty associated with the choice of prior probabilistic models for input parameters. A PCE-based Kernel Density (KDE) construction provides a composite map from the PCE coefficients and germ to the PDF of quantities of interest (QoI). Here, the sensitivities of these PDF with respect to the input parameters are then evaluated. Input parameters of the probabilistic models are considered. By sampling over the epistemic random variable, a family of PDFs is generated and the failure probability is itself estimated as a random variable with its own PCE. Integrating epistemic uncertainties within the PCE framework results in a computationally efficient paradigm for propagation and sensitivity evaluation. Two typical illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.
Aleatory uncertainty↗
Computing the QRPA level density with the finite amplitude method
Here, we describe a new algorithm to calculate the vibrational nuclear level density of an atomic nucleus. Fictitious perturbation operators that probe the response of the system are generated by drawing their matrix elements from some probability distribution function. We use the Finite Amplitude Method to explicitly compute the response for each such sample. With the help of the Kernel Polynomial Method, we build an estimator of the vibrational level density and provide the upper bound of the relative error in the limit of infinitely many random samples. The new algorithm can give accurate estimates of the vibrational level density. Since it is based on drawing multiple samples of perturbation operators, its computational implementation is naturally parallel and scales like the number of available processing units.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
New Machine Learning Techniques for Simulation-Based Inference: InferoStatic Nets, Kernel Score Estimation, and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation
We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential $\varphi$. In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
New machine learning techniques for simulation-based inference: InferoStatic nets, kernel score estimation, and kernel likelihood ratio estimation
We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.
Kong, Kyoungchul↗
Training quantum neural networks using the quantum information bottleneck method
Abstract We provide in this paper a concrete method for training a quantum neural network to maximize the relevant information about a property that is transmitted through the network. This is significant because it gives an operationally well founded quantity to optimize when training autoencoders for problems where the inputs and outputs are fully quantum. We provide a rigorous algorithm for computing the value of the quantum information bottleneck quantity within error ε that requires O ( log 2 ( 1 / ϵ ) + 1 / δ 2 ) queries to a purification of the input density operator if its spectrum is supported on { 0 } ⋃ [ δ , 1 − δ ] for δ > 0 and the kernels of the relevant density matrices are disjoint. We further provide algorithms for estimating the derivatives of the QIB function, showing that quantum neural networks can be trained efficiently using the QIB quantity given that the number of gradient steps required is polynomial.
Çatlı, Ahmet Burak (ORCID:0000000152294141)↗
Four-point correlation modular bootstrap for OPE densities
In this work we apply the lightcone bootstrap to a four-point function of scalars in two-dimensional conformal field theory. We include the entire Virasoro symmetry and consider non-rational theories with a gap in the spectrum from the vacuum and no conserved currents. For those theories, we compute the large dimension limit (h/c >> 1) of the OPE spectral decomposition of the Virasoro vacuum. We then propose a kernel ansatz that generalizes the spectral decomposition beyond h/c >> 1. Finally, we estimate the corrections to the OPE spectral densities from the inclusion of the lightest operator in the spectrum.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Coarse-Grained Density Functional Theory Predictions via Deep Kernel Learning
Scalable electronic predictions are critical for soft materials design. Recently, the Electronic Coarse-Graining (ECG) method was introduced to renormalize all-atom quantum chemical (QC) predictions to coarse-grained (CG) resolutions using deep neural networks (DNNs). While DNNs can learn complex representations that prove challenging for kernel-based methods, they are susceptible to overfitting and the overconfidence of uncertainty estimations. Here, we develop ECG within a GPU-accelerated Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) framework to enable CG QC predictions using range-separated hybrid density functional theory (DFT), obtaining a 107 speedup relative to naive all-atom QC. By treating the predicted electronic properties as random Gaussian Processes, DKL incorporates CG mapping degeneracy by learning the distribution of electronic energies as a function of CG configuration. DKL-ECG accurately reproduces molecular orbital energies from range-separated DFT while facilitating efficient training via active learning using the uncertainties provided by DKL. Further, we show that while active learning algorithms enable efficient sampling of a more diverse configurational space relative to random sampling, all explored query methods exhibit comparable performance for the examined system. We attribute this result to the significant overlap of the feature space and output property distributions across multiple temperatures.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Codebase release 0.1 for infstat
We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.
Kong, Kyoungchul↗
S-PLUS DR1 galaxy clusters and groups catalogue using PzWav
ABSTRACT We present a catalogue of 4499 groups and clusters of galaxies from the first data release of the multi-filter (5 broad, 7 narrow) Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS). These groups and clusters are distributed over 273 deg2 in the Stripe 82 region. They are found using the PzWav algorithm, which identifies peaks in galaxy density maps that have been smoothed by a cluster scale difference-of-Gaussians kernel to isolate clusters and groups. Using a simulation-based mock catalogue, we estimate the purity and completeness of cluster detections: at S/N > 3.3, we define a catalogue that is 80 per cent pure and complete in the redshift range 0.1 < z < 0.4, for clusters with M200 > 1014 M⊙. We also assessed the accuracy of the catalogue in terms of central positions and redshifts, finding scatter of σR = 12 kpc and σz = 8.8 × 10−3, respectively. Moreover, less than 1 per cent of the sample suffers from fragmentation or overmerging. The S-PLUS cluster catalogue recovers ∼80 per cent of all known X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel’dovich selected clusters in this field. This fraction is very close to the estimated completeness, thus validating the mock data analysis and paving an efficient way to find new groups and clusters of galaxies using data from the ongoing S-PLUS project. When complete, S-PLUS will have surveyed 9300 deg2 of the sky, representing the widest uninterrupted areas with narrow-through-broad multi-band photometry for cluster follow-up studies.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
ConKer: An algorithm for evaluating correlations of arbitrary order
Context. High order correlations in the cosmic matter density have become increasingly valuable in cosmological analyses. However, computing these correlation functions is computationally expensive. Aims. We aim to circumvent these challenges by developing a new algorithm called ConKer for estimating correlation functions. Methods. This algorithm performs convolutions of matter distributions with spherical kernels using FFT. Since matter distributions and kernels are defined on a grid, it results in some loss of accuracy in the distance and angle definitions. We study the algorithm setting at which these limitations become critical and suggest ways to minimize them. Results. ConKer is applied to the CMASS sample of the SDSS DR12 galaxy survey and corresponding mock catalogs, and is used to compute the correlation functions up to correlation order n = 5. We compare the n = 2 and n = 3 cases to traditional algorithms to verify the accuracy of the new algorithm. We perform a timing study of the algorithm and find that three of the four distinct processes within the algorithm are nearly independent of the catalog size N , while one subdominant component scales as O ( N ). The dominant portion of the calculation has complexity of O ( N c 4/3 log N c ), where N c is the of cells in a three-dimensional grid corresponding to the matter density. Conclusions. We find ConKer to be a fast and accurate method of probing high order correlations in the cosmic matter density, then discuss its application to upcoming surveys of large-scale structure.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Hierarchical Speed Planner for Automated Vehicles: A Framework for Lagrangian Variable Speed Limit in Mixed-Autonomy Traffic
Here, this article presents a novel hierarchical speed planning framework for variable speed limits in mixed-autonomy traffic environments, leveraging server-side macroscopic control and vehicle-side microscopic execution. The framework integrates real-time traffic state estimation (TSE) and reinforcement learning (RL)-based control to mitigate congestion and improve traffic flow. A TSE enhancement module combines macroscopic data from sources like INRIX with high-resolution observations from connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), enabling predictive modeling to address latency and noise. The target speed design module employs kernel smoothing and a buffer zone strategy to optimize traffic density and flow around bottlenecks. The proposed system was validated in the largest open-road test to date with 100 CAVs, demonstrating an overall 8% traffic density decrease, with a specific decrease of 7% upstream, 10% downstream, and a 52% decrease during the congestion formation phase at bottlenecks.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Kernel learning backward SDE filter for data assimilation
In this paper, we develop a kernel learning backward SDE filter method to estimate the state of a stochastic dynamical system based on its partial noisy observations. A system of forward backward stochastic differential equations is used to propagate the state of the target dynamical model, and Bayesian inference is applied to incorporate the observational information. Further, to characterize the dynamical model in the entire state space, we introduce a kernel learning method to learn a continuous global approximation for the conditional probability density function of the target state by using discrete approximated density values as training data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the kernel learning backward SDE is highly effective.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Towards Efficient Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for robust energy prediction in crystal materials
In material science, recent studies have started to explore the potential of using deep learning to improve property prediction from high-fidelity simulations, e.g, density functional theory (DFT). However, the design spaces are sometimes too large and intractable to sample completely. This results in a critical question that is how to evaluate the confidence and robustness of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an efficient approach to estimate uncertainty in deep learning using a single forward pass and then apply it for robust prediction of the total energy in crystal lattice structures. Our approach is built upon the deep kernel learning (DKL) that originally introduces to leverage the expressiveness of deep neural networks as input with a probabilistic prediction of Gaussian processes (GPs) as output. Existing DKL methods have difficulties in the accuracy of predictive uncertainty, training stability, and scaling to large datasets, which lead to significant barriers in real-world applications. We propose to address these challenges by using an inducing point approximate GP in feature space combined with spectral normalization as a regularization. We finally demonstrate our robust performance on an artificial example and a real-world application from materials chemistry.
Bi, Sirui↗
Particle Filter Based Inference Testing
The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.
Chen, Edward [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
Conformal Hierarchical Simulation-Based Inference with Local Validity
Trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty quantification is a long-standing challenge in artificial intelligence. Simulation-based inference (SBI) comprises a broad swath of approaches for estimating latent parameters with uncertainties. Although flexible neural density estimators in SBI can be remark- ably expressive capturing highly structured, high-dimensional posteriors their credible regions can be badly mis-calibrated and are often only accompanied by heuristic coverage checks. We present the first SBI framework that delivers finite-sample local valid coverage guarantees that hold in the neighborhood of each observation. Our framework can couple any off-the-shelf hierarchical SBI engine with a confor- mal Bayesian post-processing step that operates on the posterior predictive density. A kernel-weighted conformity score adapts the conformal quantile to the local geometry of the data, yielding prediction sets that are simultaneously (i) marginally calibrated, (ii) locally valid, and (iii) hierarchical, handling global and observation-specific parameters in a single pass. Through experiments on synthetic data and benchmarks from neuroscience and physics, we show that our approach attains 1 − α coverage, where prior SBI methods under- or over-cover. Our approach also maintains a competitive, credible set size with minimal computational overhead. Finally, our approach can be used to make predictions on real data and give valid credible regions modulo weight-initialization-based model mis-specification.
Trivedi, Shubhendu [Fermilab]↗
Resonant inelastic x-ray scattering in warm-dense Fe compounds beyond the SASE FEL resolution limit
Resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) is a widely used spectroscopic technique, providing access to the electronic structure and dynamics of atoms, molecules, and solids. However, RIXS requires a narrow bandwidth x-ray probe to achieve high spectral resolution. The challenges in delivering an energetic monochromated beam from an x-ray free electron laser (XFEL) thus limit its use in few-shot experiments, including for the study of high energy density systems. Here we demonstrate that by correlating the measurements of the self-amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) spectrum of an XFEL with the RIXS signal, using a dynamic kernel deconvolution with a neural surrogate, we can achieve electronic structure resolutions substantially higher than those normally afforded by the bandwidth of the incoming x-ray beam. We further show how this technique allows us to discriminate between the valence structures of Fe and Fe2O3, and provides access to temperature measurements as well as M-shell binding energies estimates in warm-dense Fe compounds.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗