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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Precambrian Crystalline Basement Properties From Pressure History Matching and Implications for Induced Seismicity in the US Midcontinent

Injection-induced seismicity across the US midcontinent has almost exclusively occurred in the crystalline basement that underlies the Arbuckle Group aquifer and its equivalents, the primary wastewater disposal zone in this region. However, the properties of the basement are not well known. Newly compiled data, from Class I wells in Kansas, provide a unique record of pressures in the Arbuckle and an opportunity to constrain the reservoir-scale properties of the basement such as permeability, diffusivity, and specific storage. Constraints on these parameters are critical for modeling fluid flow and pressures across the entire Arbuckle-basement system, and are necessary for accurate evaluation and prediction of injection-induced earthquakes. Here, we present a detailed, three-dimensional geological and pressure history-matched numerical model for the Arbuckle and basement, based on data from >400 wells covering a large region in south-central Kansas, where injection-induced seismicity has been concentrated since 2014. Simulations of dynamic data from 319 wells indicate that Arbuckle pressures have increased by 1.1 MPa in high injection rate areas and an overpressure of <0.1 MPa may be the cause of seismicity in the basement. Pressure-history matching also yields the likely range in porosity (0.3%–7%), permeability (0.1–0.7 mD), and diffusivity (0.004–0.07 m2 /s) for the basement. The resulting estimates suggest reservoir-scale properties of the basement are enhanced by faults and fractures. Importantly, the diffusivities determined in this study are lower than estimates derived from Kansas earthquake triggering fronts, and suggest that such seismicity-based techniques may have limitations, particularly where spacetime patterns between injection and seismicity are complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

East Pacific ENSO Offers Early Predictive Signals for Harvest Yields

Abstract Annual wheat yields have steadily risen over the past century, but harvests remain highly variable and dependent on myriad weather conditions during a long growing season. In Kansas, for example, the 2014 crop year brought the lowest average yield in decades at 28 bushels per acre, while in 2016 farmers in the Wheat State, as Kansas is often called, enjoyed a historic high of 57 bushels per acre. It is broadly known that remote forces like El Niño–Southern Oscillation contribute to meteorological outcomes across North America, including in the wheat-growing regions of the U.S. Midwest, but the differential imprints of ENSO phases and flavors have not been well explored as leading indicators for harvest outcomes in highly specific agricultural regions, such as the more than 7 million acres upon which wheat is grown in Kansas. Here, we demonstrate a strong, steady, and long-term association between a simple “wheat yield index” and sea surface temperature anomalies, more than a year earlier, in the East Pacific, potentially offering insights into forthcoming harvest yields several seasons before planting commences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment (BIRDIE) (Field Campaign Report)

The Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment or BIRDIE was a precipitation collection campaign designed to measure cosmogenic isotopes of beryllium in rainfall and other forms of precipitation across the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Precipitation samples were collected over three weeks (May 21-June 10, 2022) at 11 SGP sites across a 120-km 2 domain in northern and central Oklahoma. The field campaign targeted summertime convection rain events. We aimed to capture any spatial and/or temporal variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 (10Be) and beryllium-7 (7Be) across the ARM SGP site during these rainfall events. The ratio of 10Be to 7Be (10/7Be) has been shown to be a powerful tracer for transport processes in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) system (e.g., Koch and Rind 1998). Any observed variability is analyzed to see if it could be linked to STE processes, including overshooting of deep convection clouds that penetrate the lower stratosphere. Six wet weather system events were collected within our three-week span. Five out of six of these rainfall events are classified as moderately to strongly convective. Those events are studied in more detail. The five systems also follow each other over a short period of 11 days. In our rainfall samples we observed spatial and event variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 and -7 that resulted in variability of 10/7Be ratios. Each weather event appeared to exhibit a unique 10/7Be pattern across the domain that was not directly linked to storm total precipitation amount. To better understand the causes for this spatial variability, cloud characteristics in the domain were looked at to assess cloud type, cloud height, and depth information. We also ran Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model back trajectories to identify possible air mass and moisture origins across our events. Detailed analysis is ongoing. The purpose of this technical report is to provide background on using cosmogenic isotopes as atmospheric tracers, describe the experimental design, and present the beryllium concentration and ratio data. Lastly, we note that BIRDIE coincided with two other deep convection field campaigns in the area: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) experiment (https://dcotss.org/) centered in Salina, Kansas, and the Targeted Observation by Radars and (uncrewed aerial systems) UAS of Supercells (TORUS) experiment (https://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/torus_2022) across the U.S. Central Plains. Additionally, a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ( LLNL) team at DCOTSS attempted to measure 10Be/7Be ratios on aerosols collected in situ in the lower and mid-stratosphere over Kansas using high-altitude balloons. Precipitation samples were also collected on the ground in Salina, Kansas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

H-2-SALT: Storing Fossil Energy as Hydrogen in Salt Caverns

Hydrogen storage in subsurface caverns is known as perhaps largest and longest-term energy storage system. While few such systems are currently in service (e.g., Texas; Teesside, UK), they are envisioned as being a pillar of the current energy transition that will allow intermittent power production from renewable sources (e.g., wind, solar) to be balanced with demand at grid-scale. In addition, hydrogen energy storage can allow existing fossil power plants to run more economically either by minimizing startups/shutdowns or by allowing them to take advantage of arbitrage. Finally, stored hydrogen can feed a variety of non-power users such as pipeline gas, heating, transportation, and manufacturing. The H-2-SALT paper study assessed the feasibility of a power-to-hydrogen system utilizing salt cavern storage of hydrogen in bedded salt in central Kansas, where over 750 such caverns have been constructed to date, of which approximately 350 are still in service. Legacy well and salt cavern data were collected to develop a regional geological database for two sites in Central Kansas and adjacent areas for use in more detailed geological and geomechanical site characterization efforts. This study found commercial viability and competitiveness of large-scale, electrolytic H 2 production and storage ($1.78 per kg H 2 ) that can be used for both electrical power supply to the grid during high-priced electricity periods (including co-firing with NG and fuel cell power production) and sale of H 2 for various industries, such as petrochemicals or transportation. The commercial potential of the H-2-SALT system is also relatively high because each of its components operate commercially today. It is recommended that a stratigraphic test well be drilled to collect log data and core samples that can reduce uncertainty surrounding geological and geomechanical properties of the salt beds that will be required for further cavern and energy storage system design studies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The nth-plant scenario for blended feedstock conversion and preprocessing nationwide: biorefineries and depots

The sustainability of the biofuel industry depends on the development of a mature conversion technology on a national level that can take advantage of the economies of scale: the nth-plant. Defining the future location and supply logistics of conversion plants is imperative to ultimately transform the nation’s renewable biomass resources into cost-competitive, high-performance feedstock for production of biofuels and bioproducts. Since the US has put restrictions on production levels of conventional biofuels from edible resources, the nation needs to plan for the widespread accessibility and development of the cellulosic biofuel scenario. Conventional feedstock supply systems will be unable to handle cellulosic biomass nationwide, making it essential to expand the industry with an advanced feedstock supply system incorporating a distributed network of preprocessing depots and conversion plants, or biorefineries. Current studies are mostly limited to designing supply systems for specific regions of the country. We developed a national database with potential locations for depots and biorefineries to meet the nation’s target demand of cellulosic biofuel. Blended feedstock with switchgrass and corn stover (harvested by either a two- or three-pass method) are considered in a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model to deliver on-spec biomass that considers both, a desired quantity and quality at the biorefinery. A total delivered feedstock cost that is less than $79.07/dt (2016$) is evaluated for years 2022, 2030, and 2040. In 2022, 124 depots and 59 biorefineries could be supplied with 42.8 million dt of corn stover and switchgrass. In 2030 and 2040, the total accessible biomass could increase to 215% and 393% respectively when compared to 2022. However, an $8/dry tons reduction in targeted delivery cost could reduce total accessible biomass by 67%. Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas were identified as potential states with a strong biofuel economy given that they had six or more biorefineries located in all scenarios. In some scenarios, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, Mississippi and South Carolina would greatly benefit from a depot network as these could only deliver to a biorefinery in a nearby state. To elaborate the impact of a nationwide consideration, the findings were compared with existing literature for different US regions. We also present results for biorefinery capacities that are double, triple, and quadruple in size.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing monitoring networks for local earthquakes

Abstract Seismic networks are essential for monitoring local earthquakes in connection to industrial activities, including wastewater injection and CO2 sequestration. Because these networks are typically deployed for short periods of time at specific sites, it is beneficial to develop best practices for efficient and effective installation and monitoring. Such standards are available for regional earthquake and microseismic monitoring, but not readily available for local scale (tens of kilometer scale) monitoring. Once the region of interest has been determined, the key parameters for establishing a network are available monitoring station locations, site noise, and site utility. Networks should be designed based on the project monitoring goals for earthquake magnitude and density. Herein, a network was established at the Patterson and Hartland Oil Fields in western Kansas in association with a US Department of Energy CarbonSAFE carbon capture and sequestration research project. We employed observations from an analog local network, the Wellington Earthquake Monitoring Network in south-central Kansas, to assess site noise and estimate earthquake detection thresholds for the Patterson and Hartland fields. Noise from oil production facilities was evaluated, concluding that oil lease sites are suitable for monitoring small local earthquakes (M1-M3). The network was designed to have a magnitude of completeness of M1 while using station locations on existing field operator leases. Fifteen months of continuous network operation demonstrates reliable and efficient local earthquake monitoring and provides best practices recommendations for similar operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior Patterns with Function Principal Component Analysis Approach

This manuscript focused on analyzing electric vehicles’ (EV) charging behavior patterns with a functional data analysis (FDA) approach, with the goal of providing theoretical support to the EV infrastructure planning and regulation, as well as the power grid load management. 5-year real-world charging log data from a total of 455 charging stations in Kansas City, Missouri, was used. The focuses were placed on analyzing the daily usage occupancy variability, daily energy consumption variability, and station-level usage variability. Compared with the traditional discrete-based analysis models, the proposed FDA modeling approach had unique advantages in preserving the smooth function behavior of the data, bringing more flexibility in the modeling process with little required assumptions or background knowledge on independent variables, as well as the capability of handling time series data with different lengths or sizes. In addition to the patterns revealed in the EV charging station’s occupancy and energy consumption, the differences between EV driver’s charging time and parking time were analyzed and called for the needs for parking regulation and enforcement. The different usage patterns observed at charging stations located on different land-use types were also analyzed.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on storm propagation and hail characteristics

Changes in land surface and aerosol characteristics from urbanization can affect dynamic and microphysical properties of severe storms, thus affecting hazardous weather events resulting from such storms such as hail and tornado. We examine the joint and individual effects of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols of Kansas City on a severe convective storm observed during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, focusing on storm evolution, convective intensity, and hail characteristics. The simulations are carried out at the cloud-resolving scale (1 km) using a version of WRF-Chem in which the spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) is coupled with the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC). It is found that the urban land effect of Kansas City initiated a much stronger convective cell and the storm got further intensified when interacting with stronger turbulence induced by the urban land. The urban land effect also changed the storm path by diverting the storm toward the city mainly resulting from enhanced urban land-induced convergence in the urban area and around the urban-rural boundaries. The joint effect of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols enhances occurrences of both severe hail and significant severe hail by ~ 20% by enhancing hail formation and growth from riming. Overall the urban land effect on convective intensity and hail is relatively larger than the anthropogenic aerosol effect, but the joint effect is much notable than either of the individual effects, emphasizing the importance to consider both effects in evaluating urbanization effects.

Lin, Yun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Direct SP -Converted Waves Constrains Local Induced Earthquake Depths

Abstract Seismicity in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma in the past decade has been associated with fluid injections. In southcentral Kansas, the Wellington earthquake catalog is primarily composed of local, low-magnitude events. Approximately 22% of recorded earthquakes over a 2.5 yr period exhibit a seismic phase arriving between the direct P phase and direct S phase with particle motion similar to the P wave. This intermediate phase was identified as an S to P conversion (SP phase) occurring in the sedimentary rocks instead of the hypothesized basement to sedimentary section transition. We exploit the SP-converted phases to improve the depth accuracy of shallow earthquakes and to constrain VP/VS. The revised depth calculations further confirm that these local induced earthquakes are occurring in the shallow crystalline basement, below the sedimentary section in which fluids are injected.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computed Tomography Scanning and Geophysical Measurements of the Wellington 1-32 Core

The computed tomography (CT) facilities and the Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia were used to characterize core from the Wellington 1-32 well (API 15-191-22591), a small-scale field test site in the Wellington Field, in Sumner County, Kansas. Wellington 1-32 was drilled in association with the Kansas Geologic Survey’s (KGS) Phase I pre-feasibility study under the DOE-NETL Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) program, with the goal of utilizing the Arbuckle Group as a reservoir for CO 2 storage and the potential for stacked reservoir enhanced oil recovery from Mississippian reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Porous Polymeric Materials FY24 PDRD Final Report

Fillers and pore formers are used in many materials at Kansas City National Security Campus (KCNSC) to fine tune density and stiffness. Current off-the-shelf options such as urea and Expancel do not always provide the desired properties. This project investigated several methods for introducing porosity in rigid polymers such as epoxy and polyurethane. This work was done at partnering universities to identify a variety of methods to create porous polymeric materials. The University of Oklahoma (OU) investigated emulsion templating of epoxy, where the epoxy is mixed with a surfactant and water to form an emulsion. The emulsion is then molded and cured. During the cure process, water droplets evaporate to form porous structures. Total porosity can be tuned by changing the concentration of water added to the polymer. The University of Kansas (KU) investigated the synthesis of phenolic microballoons by spray drying, as well as methods of incorporating removable porogens into epoxy and polyurethane materials to create polymeric foams.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Updated Life Cycle Assessment of Utility-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Systems Installed in the United States

Given the high deployment targets for solar photovoltaics (PV) needed to meet U.S. decarbonization goals, and the limited carbon budget remaining to limit global temperature rise, accurate accounting of the energy-use and greenhouse-gas emissions over the life-cycle of PV systems is needed. In the United States, most PV systems are large utility-scale systems which use single-axis trackers and central inverters, which are not commonly examined in existing life-cycle assessment (LCA) literature. In this study, we present a cradle-to-grave LCA of a typical silicon U.S. utility PV (UPV) installation which is consistent with the utility system features documented in the annual NREL PV system cost benchmark reports. We analyze and present results for four main metrics: cumulative energy demand (CED), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy payback time (EPBT), and carbon payback time (CPBT). We consider six primary manufacturing options: three based on an imported PV module supply chain (comparing low-carbon imports, high-carbon imports, and average imports), and three based on a potential domestic PV module supply chain (comparing low-carbon U.S. regions, high-carbon U.S. regions, and average U.S. regions). These manufacturing options were then paired with installation locations to create six main cases: low-carbon options were installed in Phoenix (Arizona), high-carbon options were installed in Seattle (Washington), and average options were installed in Fredonia (Kansas). These locations were selected to represent a range of irradiance and grid mixes in the United States, in order to illustrate the likely range of EPBTs and CPBTs possible across the United States. For all six cases, a sensitivity analysis for end-of-life (EOL) handling was explored to capture current and future management options: landfilling, partial recycling, and high-quality recycling. For the purposes of this report, the benchmark system was defined to use an average imported supply chain with partial recycling, installed in Fredonia (Kansas). CED results show ratios at or below 0.1 MJ oil-eq /MJgenerated which demonstrates efficient use of primary energy resources (below a 1:1 ratio), and represents a slight improvement over previous results in literature. GHG emissions per kWh range from 10-36 g CO 2 e, which are consistent with or lower than previous results published by NREL and IEA-PVPS. We use a graphical approach for calculating EPBT and CPBT in this report, which improves upon methods typically used in literature by accounting for non-linearity and avoiding data quality issues associated with long-term projections. EPBT was determined to vary from 0.5 to 1.2 years, with a benchmark EPBT of 0.6 years; CPBT was shown to vary from 0.8 to 20 years, with benchmark CPBT of 2.1 years, which is lower than other estimates from recent literature (typically >2 years).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Improvements of Fire Station 71

Since 2018, the City of Shawnee, Kansas has completed two phases of the State of Kansas Facility Conservation Improvement Program (FCIP), an initiative that guarantees operational cost and energy savings through targeted construction improvements on City facilities and infrastructure. The City is currently in the third phase of this FCIP, where one of the projects included an investment in energy improvements for Fire Station 71 (FS 71). The City partnered with Navitas, an Energy Service Company (ESCO), to implement a Photovoltaic Solar Array on FS71. The purpose of this project was to invest in sustainable building improvements with Energy Conservation Measures (ECM) to bring cost savings to the City and to provide sustainable benefits to the residents of Shawnee. In the first task of the project, Navitas collaborated with the City of Shawnee and the Community Development Department to determine the optimal layout and schedule for the installation of the solar array on FS 71. In the second task of the project, Navitas installed the 99.8 kW DC Photovoltaic solar array system. This system installation comprised of racking, inverters, optimizers, load center, and disconnect, which were all installed at a total ECM price of $\$$247,948. The third task focused on start-up and commissioning of the array. Navitas installed a real-time data analytics information management system integrated with utility meters, which evaluates the operations of the utility system and verifies operation of equipment and ensures optimum operation for energy efficiency. In the final task of this project, this analytics system was used for monitoring and verification, which will continue to be used to evaluate the success of the project for the coming years. The primary goal of the project was to install the 99.8 kW DC PV solar array at FS 71 to demonstrate the viability of solar energy systems in essential municipal facilities. Fire stations are energy demanding structures, as they require a constant intake of power and have a high baseline energy usage. The success of solar arrays on a fire station exemplifies their energy efficiency and effectiveness and displays their potential for application on other city facilities. By installing a solar array at such a facility, the City sought not only to offset electricity usage but also to serve as a model for ECMs in other municipal facilities and infrastructure projects. From an economic standpoint, this project demonstrates the feasibility of renewable energy at the municipal level. The total project cost of $\$$247,948 was split evenly between city funds and award funding, minimizing financial risk while ensuring guaranteed long-term savings. Any excess savings that are beyond the guaranteed minimums remain with the city, which enables future investment in sustainable energy initiatives. This project provides many benefits to the public. In addition to reducing the environmental footprint of city operations, it lowers taxpayer-funded utility spending and improves the energy security of a critical facility. The knowledge gained from this implementation motivates the City to focus on similar efforts across other public facilities in future FCIP phases and other City projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) (Final Technical Report)

The Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) project advances resilience science and engineering by addressing challenges in rural Kansas communities where aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and socioeconomic disparities heighten vulnerability to energy disruptions. Traditional approaches often focus on technical performance while overlooking community concerns and priorities. SAFER responds by integrating community perspectives with advanced analytical frameworks to create a holistic model for measuring and improving resilience. Project objectives included developing novel resilience metrics, advancing modeling frameworks that capture interdependencies across infrastructures, and embedding community-centric indicators directly into planning processes for distributed energy resources. The key technical innovations included the creation of self-organizing map (SOM)-based indices for objective resilience quantification, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) models linking power, water, transportation, and community assets, and graph neural network (GNN) tools for identifying critical nodes in complex systems. Community-centric energy planning was demonstrated through optimal siting and sizing of (photovoltaic) PV and battery storage, ensuring resilience enhancements also addressed energy burden and energy insecurity. SAFER engaged community partners in Dodge City and Ford County through surveys, focus groups, and workshops, generating more than 600 responses that established baseline measures of energy burden, financial insecurity, and willingness-to-pay to avoid outages. This data, organized in terms of a community capitals framework, informed the development of weighted reliability indices that better reflect community costs than traditional utility metrics. SAFER’s GNN-based critical node identification framework identified expert-labelled critical nodes with over 99% accuracy, while also uncovering additional functionalities essential for proactive resilience planning. The project’s models demonstrated that optimal PV and storage deployment could improve resilience indices by over 11 percent, with dispatch strategies further enhancing outcomes, confirming both the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of these approaches. Through its combined emphasis on rigorous modeling, community-focused planning, and community engagement, SAFER advances the state of resilience research while delivering direct benefits to rural communities. The project provides tools, guidelines, and resilience heatmaps that help utilities, local governments, and residents better anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and strengthen the capacity to withstand and recover from energy-related hazards. Furthermore, the developed HFG and GNN frameworks are designed for transferability, allowing them to be adapted for resilience planning in other communities with minimal retraining. This inductive learning capability provides a scalable pathway to extend the SAFER project’s impact. Thus, creating a foundation for a nationally applicable model of infrastructure resilience. Additionally, the HFG can also be extended to include other FEMA community lifelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Anaerobic Membrane Bioreactor (AnMBR) – electro assisted fermentation platform for total resource recovery from diverse wastewaters

The overall objective of the project was to demonstrate a successful wastewater resource recovery platform comprising an Anaerobic Membrane Bioreactor (AnMBR) to achieve >50% Carbon sequestration efficiency as Volatile Fatty Acids (VFAs) or as methane gas from agricultural (animal feeding operations) wastewater along with the generation of final water exceeding Biological Nutrient Removal (BNR) standards for indirect potable reuse by coupling with constructed wetlands has been successfully accomplished. The AnMBR achieved stable performance over 350 days, removing 80–90% of COD and BOD₅ and recovering methane (0.17±0.07 L CH4/g COD at 66.5±0.03% v/v) at 3-5 LMH flux and 5-9 days HRT with 3-5% w/v total solids. Phosphorus recovery via CaO addition in an 80-L coagulation-flocculation-sedimentation unit ranged from 40.6% to 99.7%, yielding products with 11.4–13.6% P content and citric acid solubility of 32–38.6% P, comparable to rock phosphate mineral. Ammonium adsorption achieved ~94.5% recovery with exchange capacity of 10 – 16 g NH4-N/kg clinoptilolite. The CW polishing step met Kansas discharge standards for BOD5 and TN (<30 and <10 mg /L,) and approached the TP standard (~2.5 – 4 mg P/L). These findings have either already resulted in two peer reviewed publications, two patent applications, and one publication in conference proceedings.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing digitized occurrence records of Midwestern feral Cannabis sativa to develop ecological niche models

Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) has historically played a vital role in agriculture across the globe. Feral and wild populations have served as genetic resources for breeding, conservation, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, feral populations of Cannabis, specifically in the Midwestern United States, remain poorly understood. This study aims to characterize the abiotic tolerances of these populations, estimate suitable areas, identify regions at risk of abiotic suitability change, and highlight the utility of ecological niche models (ENMs) in germplasm conservation. The Maxent algorithm was used to construct a series of ENMs. Validation metrics and MOP (Mobility-oriented Parity) analysis were used to assess extrapolation risk and model performance. We also projected the final projected under current and future climate scenarios (2021–2040 and 2061–2080) to assess how abiotic suitability changes with time. Climate change scenarios indicated an expansion of suitable habitat, with priority areas for germplasm collection in Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. This study demonstrates the application of ENMs for characterizing feral Cannabis populations and highlights their value in germplasm conservation and breeding efforts. Populations of feral C. sativa in the Midwest are of high interest, and future research should focus on utilizing tools to aid the collection of materials for the characterization of genetic diversity and adaptation to a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗