Defining Needs and Gaps for Future Research and Development in International Nuclear Safeguards
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IAEA Facility-Level Safeguards and Implementation - This presentation is intended to introduce the audience to the application of international safeguards by the International Atomic Energy Agency at nuclear facilities around the world. It covers the State Level Approach, random statistical sampling processes, material balance area structure, non-destructive assay techniques, and inspection areas. Addition of advanced verification technologies for the IAEA
This project developed portable Neutron Resonance Transmission Analysis (pNRTA) as a new non-destructive assay (NDA) method for thorium fuel cycles safeguards and other applications where multiple isotopes must be measured when present together. pNRTA leverages epithermal neutron resonances to assay multiple safeguards-relevant isotopes (e.g., 233 U and 235 U) when they are present together in a sample. Existing techniques are challenged by this task, driving the need for new active interrogation methods. With selected detectors, pNRTA works in high gamma-ray backgrounds from fission and activation products and 232 U progeny expected in thorium fuel cycle samples. This project leveraged a pNRTA system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and collaboration with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The system uses a commercially available deuterium-tritium (DT) neutron generator at short standoff (2 m). Key achievements in this project included: first-of-a-kind pNRTA quantitative measurements of 233 U oxide samples, an assessment of neutron detector technologies suitable for pNRTA in high gamma-ray background environments, experimentally demonstrating quantitative assay of samples containing 233 U and 235 U, and modeling studies showing the applicability of pNRTA to a wide range of material forms. Further, a custom algorithm was developed at MIT, which provided mean bias of 9% and relative standard deviation of 36% in assaying 233 U, 235 U, 238 U, and 232 Th content in eight measured samples. These outcomes form a solid technical basis for pNRTA as a new promising capability for international safeguards verification that is portable, non-destructive, quantitative, and isotopic specific.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are near-ubiquitous in day-to-day life; from cars with automated driver-assistance, recommender systems, generative content platforms, and large language chatbots. Implementing AI as a tool for international safeguards could significantly decrease the burden on safeguards inspectors and nuclear facility operators. The use of AI would allow inspectors to complete their in-field activities quicker, while identifying patterns and anomalies and freeing inspectors to focus on the uniquely human component of inspections. Sandia National Laboratories has spent the past two and a half years developing on-device machine learning to develop both a digital and robotic assistant. This combined platform, which we term inspecta, has numerous on-device machine learning capabilities that have been demonstrated at the laboratory scale. Here this work describes early successes implementing AI/ML capabilities to reduce the burden of tedious inspector tasks such as seal examination, information recall, note taking, and more.
Simulations with the Monte Carlo N-Particle® (MCNP®) code are frequently used to study neutron coincidence counters for international safeguards. Reducing sources of uncertainty enables more accurate simulations, which reduces the need for expensive or impossible measurements. Accurately specifying the density of polyethylene is crucial for accurate simulations. The density of polyethylene ranges from 0.88 to 0.97 g/cm 3 and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) ranges from about 0.944 to 0.965 g/cm 3 . The density of a specific detector should be measured exactly for the best simulations. Here, the density of the blue/white Active Well Coincidence Counter (AWCC) bulk polyethylene was measured to be 0.9594 +- 0.0013 g/cm 3 at 1-sigma confidence. The density was calculated from repeated measurements of the various polyethylene dimensions for volume, and weighing the polyethylene for the mass. The AWCC neutron detection efficiency was simulated for each polyethylene density. The relative range of efficiencies (3σ) was 3.4% for unspecified polyethylene, 0.9% for HDPE, and 0.3% for the measured density. The impact of modeling small features such as screws was also studied and was found to be a negligible 0.2%. Measuring polyethylene density can reduce its role in uncertainty from one of the largest to one of the smallest contributors.
This document describes the use of exercise kits (called NMAC Kits) developed to support training and technical engagements sponsored by DOE/NNSA Office of Nuclear Security (INS) in the use of nuclear material accounting and control (NMAC) methodologies in support of nuclear security. INS has previously used other similar kits that were originally designed to support NMAC training for international safeguards purposes. These new kits are specifically designed to be used in nuclear security training and emphasis the role NMAC plays in nuclear security as well as security against the insider threat. Planning for the development of these kits is described in LA-UR-24-30063, FY24 NMAC Kits Upgrade and served as the initial framework for the development of the new NMAC Kit material in FY25.
In advanced reactor (AR) designs, a common feature is continuous chemical processing and circulation of the nuclear material. This work bridges a significant measurement gap in safeguarding reactors with circulating fuel or continuous refueling by leveraging and building on the isotope ratio method first developed by our team under an FY21 Advanced Reactors International Safeguards Engagement (ARISE) project (Uribe et al. 2021). In circulating fuel designs, the radioisotope inventory changes from traditional effects (e.g., radioactive decay, fission) but also includes material transport due to pressure and temperature gradients. Such designs may also require regular or continuous additions or removals during operation, which significantly increases the rate of inventory change compared to traditional pressurized water reactor (PWR)s. Thus, directly tracking the nuclear inventory is ineffective since the isotopes are continuously added and removed. The isotope ratio method instead focuses on detecting changes to the input and output flows of radioisotopes. Previous work showed that for well-chosen pairs of isotopes, the isotopic ratio provides a sensitive and lasting indicator of deviation from normal conditions (e.g., startup, shutdown, diversion). The isotope ratio method is a process monitoring method with potential for application in for forward-looking approaches to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. The original process monitoring method was developed for a specific case—the decay tank of a thorium-fueled molten salt breeder reactor. In this expanded work, we explored other types of reactors and processes with nonstationary (e.g., flowing) nuclear material, which are difficult to safeguard with traditional methods because of the transient nature of the systems. The goal of the present work is to generalize the isotope ratio method for use in processes with continuously flowing nuclear material. All continuous processes have an average time for isotopes to be replaced in the system. The isotope ratio method works by choosing radioisotopes with half-lives both above and below the processing time. The present work seeks to explore which isotopes are suitable for the method by simulating the nuclear inventory, radioisotope emissions, and detector responses for several classes of advanced reactors. While the method can in principle be applied to other processes (e.g., enrichment or reprocessing facilities), the present work limits scope to ARs with continuously flowing fuel. Section 2 details the mathematics supporting the isotope ratio method, and Section 3 introduces the representative ARs selected for this work. Section 4 discusses how each reactor was analyzed, and Section 5 showcases the results for each representative reactor. Finally, Section 6 provides concluding remarks and suggests pathways for further analysis.
Advanced reactor (AR) designs use various nuclear fuel types that can be significantly different than conventional light-water reactor (LWR) fuels, including differences in sizes, compositions, and chemical forms (e.g., oxide, carbide, metal). Nearly all the proposed AR fuels use high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which will have higher enrichments (5–20 wt% 235 U) than LWR fuels (currently limited to <5 wt% 235 U). In advance of the wide use of these new fuel types around the world, international safeguards organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA]) are working with some of the AR vendors to formulate safeguards approaches for these AR fuel cycles. As part of the overall safeguards approach, it is important to identify the potential technical challenges in performing safeguards verification measurements of these AR fuels (both fresh and spent fuels) in advance of the widespread adoption of these new fuel types, because new safeguards technologies can take several years to develop, test, and approve for use. This report documents work performed in fiscal year 2024 based on modeling and simulation to assess the performance of the existing safeguards measurement technologies for irradiated or spent AR fuel elements or items. This work is a continuation of the work performed in fiscal year 2023 that focused on fresh AR fuels. Spent AR fuels have a distinct difference from their LWR counterparts: unlike the spent LWR fuels typically stored in a water-filled pool, some spent AR fuels—such as tristructural-isotropic (TRISO)-based fuels—will most likely be stored in air-filled hot cells. Because most safeguards measurements on spent fuel performed to date have been conducted under water, the air-filled hot cell environment could present unique challenges to safeguards measurements. Fork detector (FDET) and Cerenkov viewing device (CVD) systems have been the two primary instruments used by the IAEA for several decades to measure spent LWR fuel assemblies stored in pools for safeguards verification purposes. Because the lower refractive index of air causes Cerenkov light to be of lower intensity in air than in water, existing CVDs are likely unable to perform safeguards verification measurements for spent fuel stored in an air-filled hot cell, as is the case for the TRISO-based spent fuel elements (e.g., pebbles, graphite fuel blocks). Unlike FDET measurements, CVD measurements do not require fuel be moved, so they are a simpler and faster to take than FDET measurements. The inability to perform CVD measurements on the TRISO-based AR fuel types presents a major technical challenge in the effort to use existing technology to perform safeguards measurements on spent AR fuels. This study was mainly conducted through the modeling and simulation of an FDET or an FDET-like system on five spent AR fuel types, including one metallic fuel type and four TRISO-based fuel types in both pebble and graphite block forms in their respective storage configurations and environments. Because the various AR fuel types have significantly different dimensions, FDET systems must be adapted to accommodate them. Partial defect tests were also simulated in this study to assess the FDET’s ability to detect potential fuel diversions. The FDET measures the fuel’s total passive neutron and gamma emissions. The simulated FDET results from spent AR fuel items are compared against results from a typical spent pressurized water reactor (PWR) assembly. High-purity germanium (HPGe) gamma detector measurements were also simulated for the spent AR fuel types and the PWR assembly because the signature photopeaks have been used in LWR safeguards verifications, although HPGe is usually not used to detect diversions because of the fuel’s self-attenuation effects on those photopeaks. The results indicate that these detectors have significant challenges in performing safeguards measurements of the spent AR fuel items, including incompatibilities between AR fuel items and existing FDETs, lower neutron count rates, lower sensitivities to fuel diversions in certain AR fuel items, and significantly higher interference from a neighboring fuel item when the measurement is performed in air. These results suggest that an alternative technology or significant and timely technology development is needed to perform adequate safeguards measurements of some of these AR fuel items.
Emerging thorium-based reactor designs and fuel cycles present challenges to traditional non-destructive assay techniques used in international safeguards. Specifically, assaying the masses of 233 U and 235 U when they are present together in samples with high gamma ray backgrounds is difficult because of similar passive neutron signatures and relatively weak gamma-ray emissions of 233 U. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) are developing a compact neutron resonance transmission analysis (NRTA) system as one potential solution to these challenges. The NRTA technique provides isotopic information for a sample via neutron time-of-flight (TOF) measurements that exploit a sample’s epithermal neutron resonance cross-sections. A recently developed portable NRTA system uses a commercially available, pulsed deuterium-tritium neutron generator with a ~2 m flight path and a GS20 lithium glass scintillator detector. Finally, this paper describes the prototype NRTA system design, a refined radiation transport model of the system, preliminary measurements with thorium and uranium sources, and demonstration of a quantitative isotopic estimation algorithm.
Rapidly growing interest in advanced and small modular reactor (A/SMR) technologies presents challenges as well as opportunities for implementing international safeguards and security. A/SMR deployments are expected to be more numerous, more geographically dispersed, and more varied in their designs, placing new demands on the data systems and analytical tools used to support oversight (Alberti et al., 2023; Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission et al., 2024). Because of this variability, the importance and reliance on data systems for A/SMR deployments is expected to be higher than for previous reactor generations. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) offer potential capabilities to address the high variability inherent in A/SMR technology. The beneficiaries of AI-assisted tools include facility operators, government regulators, IAEA inspectors, and A/SMR vendors. This report analyzes how AI/ML-assisted technologies can strengthen the implementation of IAEA safeguards and security measures. It also identifies AI-assisted tools to strengthen operator, facility, and regulator knowledge management practices and examines the potential risks AI/ML-based tools may introduce to IAEA safeguards and security efforts. It concludes with a set of hypothetical, standards-style requirements for AI/ML systems used in safeguards contexts, grounded in an inspector-centric view of system verification. Despite the potential benefits of AI/ML systems, understanding potential intentional and unintentional failure modes is critical for ensuring adequate protection of nuclear materials and facilities. Unique features of A/SMRs including sealed cores, remote and novel paradigms of operation, off-site reactor fabrication, novel fuel forms, and varied refueling requirements, introduce challenges for traditional safeguards technological approaches (Pensado et al., 2024; Federation of American Scientists, 2025). AI/ML systems deployed to address these challenges may introduce new risks requiring systematic evaluation rooted in both AI-specific risk frameworks, such as the NIST AI Risk Management Framework (NIST AI RMF), and established cyber risk management standards such as NIST SP 800-30 (National Institute of Standards and Technology [NIST], 2023; NIST, 2012).
"Safeguards by Design" (SBD) is the process of incorporating safeguards features into the design of a nuclear facility during the design stage. The goal of SBD is to increase the safeguardability of a facility, which is a qualitative measure of the degree of ease with which a nuclear energy system can be effectively and efficiently placed under international safeguards. During the past decade, the National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA) Next Generation Safeguards Initiative funded the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Brookhaven National Laboratory, and several consultants to develop the Facility Safeguardability Assessment (FSA) process. FSA is a screening process used by a facility designer to focus attention on the aspects of their facility or process design that would most benefit from application of SBD principles and practices. The process identifies the most relevant guidance within the SBD tools for enhancing the safeguardability of the design. During FY 2014, NNSA sponsored BNL and LANL to introduce the FSA to Westinghouse designers of their small modular nuclear power plant design. This report documents the interactions with Westinghouse Electric Company LLC ("Westinghouse") staff. The report describes the Westinghouse safeguards design concept with a view towards eventual application of the FSA to their design.
Transportable nuclear power plants (TNPPs) can provide potential benefits to countries embarking on nuclear programs, offering reduced infrastructure requirements, shorter timeframes for implementation, cost savings and greater deployment flexibility than larger conventional reactors. However, the deployment of a TNPP in a Host State comes with the obligation to establish sufficient regulatory, institutional, and technical infrastructure, which, among others, includes a legal and regulatory framework and a competent regulatory body to implement a State’s safeguards obligations. This paper considers how the unique technical and deployment features of TNPPs may affect the process of preparing for and implementing safeguards in nuclear newcomer countries. Evaluating this issue through the lens of the IAEA’s Milestones Approach, this paper discusses some potential implications arising from the shortening of some milestones phases due to reduced construction or licensing time for TNPPs, and the need for increased cooperation between Host States and Supplier States in preparing for and meeting certain safeguards obligations. These considerations are potentially relevant to various stakeholders: newcomer States considering TNPP deployment; the States and companies that supply such reactors; as well as organizations that support international safeguards capacity building.