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Collision lifetimes and impact statistics of near-Earth asteroids

We have examined the lifetimes of Near-Earth asteroids (NEA's) by directly computing the collision probabilities with other asteroids and with the terrestrial planets. We compare these to the dynamical lifetimes, and to collisional lifetimes assumed by other workers. We discuss the implications of the differences. The lifetimes of NEA's are important because, along with the statistics of craters on the Earth and Moon, they help us to compute the number of NEA's and the rate at which new NEA's are brought to the vicinity of the Earth. Assuming that the NEA population is in steady-state, the lifetimes determine the flux of new bodies needed to replenish the population. Earlier estimates of the lifetimes ignored (or incompletely accounted for) the differences in the velocities of asteroids as they move in their orbits, so our results differ from (for example) Greenberg and Chapman (1983, Icarus 55, 455) and Wetherill (1988, Icarus 76, 1) by factors of 2 to 10. We have computed the collision rates and relative velocities of NEA's with each other, the main-belt asteroids, and the terrestrial planets, using the corrected method described by Bottke et. al. (1992, GRL, in press). We find that NEA's typically have shorter collisional lifetimes than do main-belt asteroids of the same size, due to their high eccentricities, which typically give them aphelia in the main belt. Consequently, they spend a great deal of time in the main belt, and are moving much slower than the bodies around them, making them 'sitting ducks' for impacts with other asteroids. They cross the paths of many objects, and their typical collision velocities are much higher (10-15 km/s) than the collision velocities (5 km/s) among objects within the main belt. These factors combine to give them substantially shorter lifetimes than had been previously estimated.

Bottke, W. F., Jr.↗

Net Thermal Radiation in the Atmosphere of Venus

The four entry probes of the Pioneer Venus mission measured the radiative net flux in the atmosphere of Venus at latitudes of 60 deg. N, 31 deg. S, 27 deg. S, and 4 deg. N. The three higher latitude probes carried instruments (small probe net flux radiometers; SNFR) with external sensors. The measured SNFR net fluxes are too large below the clouds, but an error source and correction scheme have been found (H. E. Revercomb, L. A. Sromovsky, and V. E. Suomi, 1982, Icarus 52, 279-300). The near-equatorial probe carried an infrared radiometer (LIR) which viewed the atmosphere through a window in the probe. The LIR measurements are reasonable in the clouds, but increase to physically unreasonable levels shortly below the clouds. The probable error source and a correction procedure are identified. Three main conclusions can be drawn from comparisons of the four corrected flux profiles with radiative transfer calculations: (1) thermal net fluxes for the sounder probe do not require a reduction in the Mode 3 number density as has been suggested by O.B. Toon, B. Ragent, D. Colburn, J. Blamont, and C. Cot (1964. Icarus 37, 143-160), but the probe measurements as a whole are most consistent with a significantly reduced mode 3 contribution to the cloud opacity; (2) at all probe sites, the fluxes imply that the upper cloud contains a yet undetected source of IR opacity; and (3) beneath the clouds the fluxes at a given altitude increase with latitude, suggesting greater IR cooling below the clouds a( high latitudes and water vapor mixing ratios of about 2-5 x 10(exp -5) near 6 deg., 2-5 x 10(exp -11) near 30 deg., and less than 5 x 10(exp -4 ) near the equator. The suggested latitudinal variation of IR cooling is consistent with descending motions at high latitudes, and it is speculated that it could provide an important additional drive for the general circulation.

Revercomb, H. E.↗

Re-Analysis of the Solar Phase Curves of the Icy Galilean Satellites

Re-analysis of the solar phase curves of the icy Galilean satellites demonstrates that the quantitative results are dependent on the single particle scattering function incorporated into the photometric model; however, the qualitative properties are independent. The results presented here show that the general physical characteristics predicted by a Hapke model (B. Hapke, 1986, Icarus 67, 264-280) incorporating a two parameter double Henyey-Greenstein scattering function are similar to the predictions given by the same model incorporating a three parameter double Henyey-Greenstein scattering function as long as the data set being modeled has adequate coverage in phase angle. Conflicting results occur when the large phase angle coverage is inadequate. Analysis of the role of isotropic versus anisotropic multiple scattering shows that for surfaces as bright as Europa the two models predict very similar results over phase angles covered by the data. Differences arise only at those phase angles for which there are no data. The single particle scattering behavior between the leading and trailing hemispheres of Europa and Ganymede is commensurate with magnetospheric alterations of their surfaces. Ion bombardment will produce more forward scattering single scattering functions due to annealing of potential scattering centers within regolith particles (N. J. Sack et al., 1992, Icarus 100, 534-540). Both leading and trailing hemispheres of Europa are consistent with a high porosity model and commensurate with a frost surface. There are no strong differences in predicted porosity between the two hemispheres of Callisto, both are consistent with model porosities midway between that deduced for Europa and the Moon. Surface roughness model estimates predict that surface roughness increases with satellite distance from Jupiter, with lunar surface roughness values falling midway between those measured for Ganymede and Callisto. There is no obvious variation in predicted surface roughness with hemisphere for any of the Galilean satellites.

Domingue, Deborah↗

The Role of Clouds in the Long-Term Habitability of Planets

We proposed to conduct theoretical and laboratory investigations of the role that clouds play in the long-term climate history of the Earth and other habitable planets. We made significant progress in the first area we proposed to consider- the properties of carbon dioxide clouds in atmospheres that are rich in carbon dioxide. We submitted a modeling paper on the microphysical properties of the clouds to Icarus showing that such clouds are unlikely to play an important role in the early greenhouses on Earth or Mars. The model was based on lab studies of the nucleation and growth of carbon dioxide. We have also submitted a manuscript describing these lab studies to Icarus. These lab studies are critical not only to the ancient Mars atmosphere, but also to the current one. We also submitted a paper to Nature describing modeling of current Martian CO2 clouds. We will also model the properties of water clouds in the early history of Earth. Early in Earth's history the atmosphere contained no free oxygen. Without oxygen, sulfate aerosols that are currently the dominant cloud nuclei, cannot form. Without such nuclei the cloud structure would have been far different than it is now. We initiated studies of the aerosols on Titan as part of this work. We reported these studies in a short paper on nucleation and in several conferences.

Toon, Owen B.↗

CO2 greenhouse in the early martian atmosphere: SO2 inhibits condensation

Many investigators of the early martian climate have suggested that a dense carbon dioxide atmosphere was present and warmed the surface above the melting point of water (J.B. Pollack, J.F. Kasting, S.M. Richardson, and K. Poliakoff 1987. Icarus 71, 203-224). However, J.F. Kasting (1991. Icarus 94, 1-13) pointed out that previous thermal models of the primitive martian atmosphere had not considered the condensation of CO2. When this effect was incorporated, Kasting found that CO2 by itself is inadequate to warm the surface. SO2 absorbs strongly in the near UV region of the solar spectrum. While a small amount of SO2 may have a negligible effect by itself on the surface temperature, it may have significantly warmed the middle atmosphere of early Mars, much as ozone warms the terrestrial stratosphere today. If this region is kept warm enough to inhibit the condensation of CO2, then CO2 remains a viable greenhouse gas. Our preliminary radiative modeling shows that the addition of 0.1 ppmv of SO2 in a 2 bar CO2 atmosphere raises the temperature of the middle atmosphere by approximately 10 degrees, so that the upper atmosphere in a 1 D model remains above the condensation temperature of CO2. In addition, this amount of SO2 in the atmosphere provides an effective UV shield for a hypothetical biosphere on the martian surface.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Refining Martian Ages and Understanding Geological Processes From Cratering Statistics

Senior Scientist William K. Hartman presents his final report on Mars Data Analysis Program grant number NAG5-12217: The third year of the three-year program was recently completed in mid-2005. The program has been extremely productive in research and data analysis regarding Mars, especially using Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey imagery. In the 2005 alone, three papers have already been published, to which this work contributed.1) Hartmann, W. K. 200.5. Martian cratering 8. Isochron refinement and the history of Martian geologic activity Icarus 174, 294-320. This paper is a summary of my entire program of establishing Martian chronology through counts of Martian impact craters. 2) Arfstrom, John, and W. K. Hartmann 2005. Martian flow features, moraine-like rieges, and gullies: Terrestrial analogs and interrelationships. Icarus 174,32 1-335. This paper makes pioneering connections between Martian glacier-like features and terrestrial glacial features. 3) Hartmann, W.K., D. Winterhalter, and J. Geiss. 2005 Chronology and Physical Evolution of Planet Mars. In The Solar System and Beyond: Ten Years of ISSI (Bern: International Space Science Institute). This is a summary of work conducted at the International Space Science Institute with an international team, emphasizing our publication of a conference volume about Mars, edited by Hartmann and published in 2001.

Hartmann, William K.↗

Physical Model of Asteroid 1620 Geographos From Radar and Optical Data

We develop a physical model of asteroid 1620 Geographos using Goldstone delay-Doppler radar images obtained Aug. 1994 (Ostro et al. 1996, Icarus 121, 46-66) with resolution as fine as 75 m, and optical lighcurves obtained in 1969, 1983, and 1993-94 (Magnusson et al. 1996, Icarus 123, 227-244).

asteroid 1620 Geographos delay-Doppler radar image↗

NASA Lunar Impact Monitoring

The MSFC lunar impact monitoring program began in 2006 in support of environment definition for the Constellation (return to Moon) program. Work continued by the Meteoroid Environment Office after Constellation cancellation. Over 330 impacts have been recorded. A paper published in Icarus reported on the first 5 years of observations and 126 calibrated flashes. Icarus: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103514002243; ArXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1404.6458 A NASA Technical Memorandum on flash locations is in press

Suggs, Robert M.↗

Combined Structural and Compositional Evolution of Planetary Rings Due to Micrometeoroid Impacts and Ballistic Transport

We introduce improved numerical techniques for simulating the structural and compositional evolution of planetary rings due to micrometeoroid bombardment and subsequent ballistic transport of impact ejecta. Our current, robust code is capable of modeling structural changes and pollution transport simultaneously over long times on both local and global scales. In this paper, we describe the methodology based on the original structural code of Durisen et al. (1989, Icarus 80, 136-166) and on the pollution transport code of Cuzzi and Estrada (1998, Icarus 132, 1-35). We provide demonstrative simulations to compare with, and extend upon previous work, as well as examples of how ballistic transport can maintain the observed structure in Saturn's rings using available Cassini occultation optical depth data. In particular, we explicitly verify the claim that the inner B (and presumably A) ring edge can be maintained over long periods of time due to an ejecta distribution that is heavily biased in the prograde direction through a balance between the sharpening effects of ballistic transport and the broadening effects of viscosity. We also see that a "ramp"-like feature forms over time just inside that edge. However, it does not remain linear for the duration of the runs presented here unless a less steep ejecta velocity distribution is adopted. We also model the C ring plateaus and find that their outer edges can be maintained at their observed sharpness for long periods due to ballistic transport. We hypothesize that the addition of a significant component of a retrograde-biased ejecta distribution may help explain the linearity of the ramp and is probably essential for maintaining the sharpness of C ring plateau inner edges. This component would arise for the subset of micrometeoroid impacts which are destructive rather than merely cratering. Such a distribution will be introduced in future work.

Cassini↗

NEAs: Phase Angle Dependence of Asteroid Class and Diameter from Observational Studies

We will discuss the results of a planned observation campaign of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), 1999 CU3, 2002 GM2, 2002 FG7, and 3691 Bede with instruments on the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) from 15-Mar-2015 to 28-April 2015 UT. We will study the phase-angle dependence of the reflectance and thermal emission spectra. Recent publications reveal that the assignment of the asteroid class from visible and near-IR spectroscopy can change with phase angle for NEAs with silicate-bearing minerals on their surfaces (S-class asteroids) (Thomas et al. 2014, Icarus 228, 217; Sanchez et al. 2012 Icarus 220, 36). Only three of the larger NEAs have been measured at a dozen phase angles and the trends are not all the same, so there is not yet enough information to create a phase-angle correction. Also, the phase angle effect is not characterized well for the thermal emission including determination of the albedo and the thermal emission. The few NEAs were selected for our study amongst many possible targets based on being able to observe them through a wide range of phase angles, ranging from less than about 10 degrees to greater than 45 degrees over the constrained date range. The orbits of NEAs often generate short observing windows at phase angles higher than 45 deg (i.e., whizzing by Earth and/or close to dawn or dusk). Ultimately, lowering the uncertainty of the translation of asteroid class to meteorite analog and of albedo and size determinations are amongst our science goals. On a few specific nights, we plan to observe the 0.75-2.5 micron spectra with IRTF+SpeX for comparison with UKIRT data including 5-20 micron with UKIRT+UIST/Michelle to determine as best as possible the albedos. To ensure correct phasing of spectroscopic data, we augment with TRAPPIST-telescope light curves and R-band guider image data. Our observations will contribute to understanding single epoch mid-IR and near-IR measurements to obtain albedo, size and IR beaming parameters (the outcomes of thermal models) and asteroid spectral class.

phase-angle↗

Vertical Structure and Optical Properties of Titans Aerosols from Radiance Measurements Made Inside and Outside the Atmosphere

Prompted by the detection of stratospheric cloud layers by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS; see Anderson, C.M., Samuelson, R.E. [2011]. Icarus 212, 762-778), we have re-examined the observations made by the Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer (DISR) in the atmosphere of Titan together with two constraints from measurements made outside the atmosphere. No evidence of thin layers (<1 km) in the DISR image data sets is seen beyond the three previously reported layers at 21 km, 11 km, and 7 km by Karkoschka and Tomasko (Karkoschka, E., Tomasko, M.G. [2009]. Icarus 199, 442-448). On the other hand, there is evidence of a thicker layer centered at about 55 km. A rise in radiance gradients in the Downward-Looking Visible Spectrometer (DLVS) data below 55 km indicates an increase in the volume extinction coefficient near this altitude. To fit the geometric albedo measured from outside the atmosphere the decrease in the single scattering albedo of Titan's aerosols at high altitudes, noted in earlier studies of DISR data, must continue to much higher altitudes. The altitude of Titan's limb as a function of wavelength requires that the scale height of the aerosols decrease with altitude from the 65 km value seen in the DISR observations below 140 km to the 45 km value at higher altitudes. We compared the variation of radiance with nadir angle observed in the DISR images to improve our aerosol model. Our new aerosol model fits the altitude and wavelength variations of the observations at small and intermediate nadir angles but not for large nadir angles, indicating an effect that is not reproduced by our radiative transfer model. The volume extinction profiles are modeled by continuous functions except near the enhancement level near 55 km altitude. The wavelength dependence of the extinction optical depth is similar to earlier results at wavelengths from 500 to 700 nm, but is smaller at shorter wavelengths and larger toward longer wavelengths. A Hapke-like model is used for the ground reflectivity, and the variation of the Hapke single scattering albedo with wavelength is given. Fits to the visible spectrometers looking upward and downward are achieved except in the methane bands longward of 720 nm. This is possibly due to uncertainties in extrapolation of laboratory measurements from 1 km-am paths to much longer paths at lower pressures. It could also be due to changes in the single scattering phase functions at low altitudes, which strongly affect the path length through methane that the photons travel. We demonstrate the effects on the model fits by varying each model parameter individually in order to illustrate the sensitivity of our determination of each model parameter.

Titan↗

Signatures of the Impact Histories of Comets and Asteroids within Shocked Phyllosilicates, Enstatite, and Forsterite Minerals

Throughout the lifetime of the solar system, collisions between small bodies and impacts on the surfaces of small bodies in the Kuiper Belt have occured at speeds of 1.5 - 3 km s-1 (Stern, Astron J 124, 2002), typically at 1-10 km s-1 between Trojan asteroids (Marzari et al. Icarus 119, 1996), and at ~4-8 km s-1 in the asteroid belt (Farinella and Davis, Icarus 97, 1992). Shock effects recorded by minerals composing these bodies are one observable legacy of this evolutionary process, whether they were generated through large collisions, micrometeoroid impacts, or processing during the formation of the solar system. Shock metamorphism has been observed in cometary samples such as those from Comet Wild 2 (Keller et al. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 72, 2008; Tomeoka et al. MAPS 43, 2008; Jacobs et al. MAPS 44, 2009) as well as in forsterites and enstatites found in meteorites (McCausland et al. AGU, 2010). To investigate the observable signatures of these processes, we have conducted a suite of impact experiments at NASA Johnson Space Center's Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL). Target materials included Mg-rich forsterite (olivine), Mg-rich enstatite (orthopyroxene), and antigorite and lizardite (both in the serpentine group of phyllosilicates). Alumina-ceramic spheres were launched at speeds ranging from ~2.0 - 2.6 km s-1 into targets at temperatures from 25degC to -100degC. Recent advancements have been made in cooling targets in the EIL's vertical gun. Liquid nitrogen (LN2) is fed through a unique jacket surrounding the metallic sample container to chill the samples. Real-time values from temperature sensors attached to the sample holder are converted to target temperature through predetermined regression relationships, providing the target temperature at the time of impact with sub-degree accuracy. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR) data in the near to mid-IR will be presented, along with trends relating temperature and velocity with impact speeds, and thereby peak shock stresses experienced by the impacted minerals.

Lederer, Susan M.↗

Overview of Ablative TPS Modeling at NASA Ames

Over the past decade, NASA has invested in efforts to build predictive thermal protection system (TPS) material models from the micro-scale to the macro-scale. To complement the mission design cycle process and reduce the need for extensive testing, NASA is developing modeling and simulation tools that enable characterizing material properties and response to hot plasma experienced during atmospheric entry. Traditional material response and ablation modeling tools, such as the heritage code FIAT, and its multidimensional siblings, TITAN and 3dFIAT, are being complemented with newly developed software such as Icarus and PATO. Both of these programs are three-dimensional, finite-volume solvers that use unstructured meshes and 21st century programming paradigms to allow for efficient parallel simulations. FIAT and Icarus are also used for TPS sizing purposes. Today, these traditional tools are being supplemented with computational materials models at the atomistic level. The scales of interest range from computational chemistry (Density Functional Theory [DFT]), to atomistic simulations (Molecular Dynamics [MD]), to the microscale with the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software that was recently awarded the 2022 NASA Software of the Year award. Finally, thermo-structural modeling is also of interest to the TPS Materials branch and done using commercial tools such as MSC MARC, MENTAT, NASTRAN and PATRAN. The present talk will also link the use of these computational tools to current NASA missions and projects associated with challenging and complex vehicles entries/reentries.

materials modeling↗

Numerical Simulations of A Conceptual MSR-EES Shoulder Recession

The present study demonstrates our in-house material response solver, Icarus's capability to simulate the ablative conditions, including pyrolysis effects due to the interaction between hypersonic boundary layers and the thermal protection system (TPS). A conceptual aeroshell shoulder design, which undergoes mission-relevant flow and material conditions, is selected for the demonstration purpose. LAURA, a structured flow solver, is used to solve flow around the shoulder at several trajectory points of a flight path. The aerothermal dataset obtained from LAURA is used to enforce boundary conditions on the aeroshell wall to simulate ablation processes. The two-layered material system is stacked with HEEET (TPS) and Aluminum (actual material). A set of base parameters, such as the angle of material orientation with respect to the flow direction, convective heat-transfer co-efficient, and aerothermal boundary conditions on the rear end of the HEEET material layer, is selected to conduct a base-case simulation. A small amount of recession was observed, indicating that the design should be fine to go through the selected flow and material conditions. Furthermore, the parameters mentioned above are individually altered and are observed to affect the shoulder design's recession compared to the base case. Verification of our Icarus setup was also carried out using a one-dimensional grid and FIAT, a one-dimensional material-response solver, to build credibility for our results. As the current work is an uncoupled fluid-material-response simulation, a local sharp mesh deformation in the recessed surface near the shoulder corner is observed.

Prakash Shrestha↗

Planetary Mapping for Landing Sites Selection: The Mars Case Study

The selection of a landing site on a planetary body is a multistep process that involves both the fulfillment of several engineering constraints and the accomplishment of scientific requirements. In this chapter, we will show how the simultaneous production and exploitation of different GIS maps depicting these criteria are pivotal in the landing site selection. Indeed, all of such constraints are presently evaluated through the use of GIS-based software. To show this, we will focus on the Martian site identification outline, providing multiple real examples taken from two ongoing study cases, i.e., the Simud Vallis landing site proposed by Pajola et al. (Icarus 268:355–381, 2016a) for the ESA ExoMars rover and the Eridania landing site proposed by Pajola et al. (Icarus 275:163–182, 2016b) for the NASA Mars 2020 landing site selection.

Planetary mapping↗

(abstract) Observation by Clementine of a Hugh Opposition Surge on the Moon at Very Small Solar Phase Angles

The Clementine mission enabled the first quantative observations of the Moon at very small solar phase angles. It is well established from Earth-based observations that the Moon exhibits a non-linear increase in brightness as its face becomes fully illuminated to a terrestrial observer. Because the models of the opposition effect are sensitive indicators of surfical compaction state and particle size, observations at small solar phase angles are important to obtain. A recent model for optical coherent backscatter seeks to explain a narrow opposition spike at very small phase angles (< 1 degree) seen on several icy satellites , including Europa, Icarus 90, and Oberon . Over 90 images of the Moon's surface at phase angles less than 0.5(deg) (the minimum phase angle observable from Earth due to the Moon's angular size) were obtained by the Clementine spacecraft. Our analysis of these images shows the moon exhibits a surge in brightness of approximately 20% below 0.25(deg), comparable to the values observed on icy satellites. No color dependence was detected in the lunar phase curve below 2 degrees.

partical size icy satellites Europa Icarus 90 Ober↗